Biodiversity hotspots for modeled habitat patches and corridors of species richness and threatened species of reptiles in central Iran

Potential distribution of Biscogniauxia mediterranea and Obolarina persica causal agents of oak charcoal disease in Iran's Zagros forests

In Iran, native oak species are under threat from episodes of Charcoal Disease, a decline syndrome driven by abiotic stressors (e.g. drought, elevated temperature) and biotic components, Biscogniauxia mediterranea (De Not.) Kuntze and Obolarina persica (M. Mirabolfathy). The outbreak is still ongoing and the country's largest ever recorded. Still, the factors driving its' epidemiology in time and space are poorly known and such knowledge is urgently needed to develop strategies to counteract the adverse effects. In this study, we developed a generic framework based on experimental, machine-learning algorithms and spatial analyses for landscape-level prediction of oak charcoal disease outbreaks. Extensive field surveys were conducted during 2013-2015 in eight provinces (more than 50 unique counties) in the Zagros ecoregion. Pathogenic fungi were isolated and characterized through morphological and molecular approaches, and their pathogenicity was assessed under controlled water stress regimes in the greenhouse. Further, we evaluated a set of 29 bioclimatic, environmental, and host layers in modeling for disease incidence data using four well-known machine learning algorithms including the Generalized Linear Model, Gradient Boosting Model, Random Forest model (RF), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines implemented in MaxEnt software. Model validation statistics [Area Under the Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistics (TSS)], and Kappa index were used to evaluate the accuracy of each model. Models with a TSS above 0.65 were used to prepare an ensemble model. The results showed that among the different climate variables, precipitation and temperature (Bio18, Bio7, Bio8, and bio9) in the case of O. persica and similarly, gsl (growing season length TREELIM, highlighting the warming climate and the endophytic/pathogenic nature of the fungus) and precipitation in case of B. mediterranea are the most important influencing variables in disease modeling, while near-surface wind speed (sfcwind) is the least important variant. The RF algorithm generates the most robust predictions (ROC of 0.95; TSS of 0.77 and 0.79 for MP and OP, respectively). Theoretical analysis shows that the ensemble model (ROC of 0.95 and 0.96; TSS = 0.79 and 0.81 for MP and OP, respectively), can efficiently be used in the prediction of the charcoal disease spatiotemporal distribution. The oak mortality varied ranging from 2 to 14%. Wood-boring beetles association with diseased trees was determined at 20%. Results showed that water deficiency is a crucial component of the oak decline phenomenon in Iran. The Northern Zagros forests (Ilam, Lorestan, and Kermanshah provinces) along with the southern Zagros forests (Fars and Kohgilouyeh va-Boyer Ahmad provinces) among others are the most endangered areas of potential future pandemics of charcoal disease. Our findings will significantly improve our understanding of the current situation of the disease to pave the way against pathogenic agents in Iran.

An ensemble modeling approach to predict spatial risk patches of the Persian leopard-livestock conflicts in Lorestan Province, Iran

This study was conducted in the Lorestan Province in the west of Iran with two objectives of identifying major environmental variables in spatial risk modeling and identifying spatial risk patches of livestock predation by the Persian leopard. An ensemble approach of three models of maximum entropy (MaxEnt), generalized boosting model (GBM), and random forest (RF) were applied for spatial risk modeling. Our results revealed that livestock density, distance to villages, forest density, and human population density were the most important variables in spatial risk modeling of livestock predation by the leopard. The center of the study area had the highest probability of livestock predation by the leopard. Ten spatial risk patches of livestock predation by the leopard were identified in the study area. In order to mitigate the revenge killing of the leopards, the findings of this study highlight the imperative of implementing strategies by the Department of Environment (DoE) to effectively accompany the herds entering the wildlife habitats with shepherds and a manageable number of guarding dogs. Accordingly, the identified risk patches in this study deserve considerable attention, especially three primary patches found in the center and southeast of Lorestan Province.

Medically important snakes and snakebite envenoming in Iran

Snakebite is a common health condition in Iran with a diverse snake fauna, especially in tropical southern and mountainous western areas of the country with plethora of snake species. The list of medically important snakes, circumstances and effects of their bite, and necessary medical care require critical appraisal and should be updated regularly. This study aims to review and map the distributions of medically important snake species of Iran, re-evaluate their taxonomy, review their venomics, describe the clinical effects of envenoming, and discuss medical management and treatment, including the use of antivenom. Nearly 350 published articles and 26 textbooks with information on venomous and mildly venomous snake species and snakebites of Iran, were reviewed, many in Persian (Farsi) language, making them relatively inaccessible to an international readership. This has resulted in a revised updated list of Iran's medically important snake species, with taxonomic revisions of some, compilation of their morphological features, remapping of their geographical distributions, and description of species-specific clinical effects of envenoming. Moreover, the antivenom manufactured in Iran is discussed, together with treatment protocols that have been developed for the hospital management of envenomed patients.

Ecological corridors for the amphibians and reptiles in the Natura 2000 sites of Romania

Landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation are key challenges for biodiversity conservation. As Earth’s landscape is increasingly dominated by anthropogenic land use, it is clear that broad-scale systems of nature reserves connected by corridors are needed to enable the dispersal of flora and fauna. The European Union currently supports a continent-wide network of protected areas, the Natura 2000 program, but this program lacks the necessary connectivity component. To examine whether a comprehensive network could be built in order to protect amphibians and reptiles, two taxonomic groups sensitive to environmental changes due to their physiological constrains and low dispersal capacity, we used species’ distribution maps, the sites of community interest (SCIs) in Romania, and landscape resistance rasters. Except Vipera ursinii rakosiensis, all amphibians and reptiles had corridors mapped that, when assembled, provided linkages for up to 27 species. Natura 2000 species were not good candidates for umbrella species as these linkages covered only 17% of the corridors for all species. Important Areas for Connectivity were identified in the Carpathian Mountains and along the Danube River, further confirming these regions as hot spots for biodiversity in Europe, where successful linkages are most likely. In the end, while such corridors may not be created just for amphibians and reptiles, they can easily be incorporated into more complex linkages with corridors for more charismatic species, therefore enhancing the corridors’ value in terms of quality and structure.