Potential invasion range of raccoon in Iran under climate change

Masked invader in Iran! Habitat suitability analysis for invasive raccoon (Procyon lotor) in the west of Guilan Province

Nowadays, in addition to the destruction and fragmentation of the world's habitats, invasive species, and damage caused by them, are one of the most important factors in the destruction of ecosystems. The raccoon (Procyon lotor) is a medium-sized mammal that is placed in mid-levels of the food web and can affect a wide range of species. Considering the damage done to local ecosystems by this invasive species, habitat assessment and determining the factors affecting its habitat suitability would be a key step in managing this species. In this study, using the MaxEnt model and examining 12 environmental parameters (elevation, slope, aspect, geological units, soil type, vegetation, land use, distance to villages, distance to main roads, distance to waterways, average temperature, and rainfall) in the west of Guilan Province, habitat suitability of this alien species was determined, and the most important factors affecting this suitability were investigated. Results showed that the validity value of the model (AUC) was estimated to be 0.852 and parameters such as distance to village (34.5%), elevation (24.2%), and land use (15.9%) are among the most important and effective factors. Also, the results showed that 0.60% of the study area has high suitability, 6.14% moderate, 24.87% low, and 68.36% unsuitable areas for raccoons. The overall result shows that despite the lack of vast favorable areas for this invasive species, an increase in the number and expansion of this species is very likely because of its omnivorous diet, high adaptability to different environments and conditions, as well as extensive niche. All of these factors cause raccoons to spread further in the region and consequently increase the risks and damages to the native ecosystem.