Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana

Elevation determines the spatial risk of Anthrax outbreaks in Karnataka, India

Anthrax is an economically important livestock disease affecting subsistence farmers and it is of zoonotic importance. Anthrax is endemic in many states of India including Karnataka. Identification of spatial risk factors for occurrence of anthrax and development of predictive risk maps are required for planning adequate vaccination in high-risk areas as well as targeted surveillance activities in animals, humans and environment. In this study, village level anthrax outbreak locations from Karnataka (1997-2016) were geo-referenced and predictive risk map was developed using temporally Fourier Processed remotely sensed variables. A non-linear discriminant analysis approach was used to develop the risk map for Karnataka. Elevation was identified as top predictor variable in the 10 variables selected. The predicted risk map showed good accuracy and validation statistics when evaluated using different metrics (Kappa, sensitivity, specificity, AUC). The predicted risk map also showed good correspondence with past outbreaks. Further, we used Bayesian Penalised spline method to estimate species response curves for top 10 variables selected. The validated risk map can be used in planning vaccination strategy and surveillance in high-risk areas.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Anthrax, Vietnam, 1990–2015

Anthrax is a priority zoonosis for control in Vietnam. The geographic distribution of anthrax remains to be defined, challenging our ability to target areas for control. We analyzed human anthrax cases in Vietnam to obtain anthrax incidence at the national and provincial level. Nationally, the trendline for cases remained at ≈61 cases/year throughout the 26 years of available data, indicating control efforts are not effectively reducing disease burden over time. Most anthrax cases occurred in the Northern Midlands and Mountainous regions, and the provinces of Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Lao Cai, Ha Giang, Cao Bang, and Son La experienced some of the highest incidence rates. Based on spatial Bayes smoothed maps, every region of Vietnam experienced human anthrax cases during the study period. Clarifying the distribution of anthrax in Vietnam will enable us to better identify risk areas for improved surveillance, rapid clinical care, and livestock vaccination campaigns.

Perceptions and Practices towards Anthrax in Selected Agricultural Communities in Arua District, Uganda

Background

Anthrax is globally recognized as an important public health and economic challenge in many agricultural communities. A cross-sectional study was conducted in three subcounties in Arua district to assess the community's awareness, cultural norm, and practices regarding anthrax. This followed a report of active cases of human cutaneous anthrax in the district.

Methods

The study was conducted in subcounties of Pawor, Rigbo, and Rhino Camp, Arua district, using focus group discussion.

Results

The affected communities had limited knowledge about anthrax, especially its clinical manifestation and modes of transmission both in humans and animals. The community also had no knowledge of the anthrax vaccine or treatment and where they can be accessed from. Poor practices associated with anthrax outbreaks included poor disposal of carcasses and ruminal wastes, occupational hazards (butchers, slaughter men, and herdsmen), consumption of meat from infected animals, communal herding, and cultural norms encouraging consumption of dead animals.

Conclusion

This study shows that there is a knowledge gap about anthrax among the people in the affected communities. Key drivers for the anthrax outbreak such as poor cultural beliefs and practices and wildlife-livestock-human interactions were observed in all the three subcounties studied. All these findings could imply a high risk of outbreak of anthrax in Arua and Ugandan agricultural communities where the public health programs are less standardized and less effective.

Predicting the Geographic Distribution of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a/Western North American Sub-Lineage for the Continental United States: New Outbreaks, New Genotypes, and New Climate Data

Bacillus anthracis, the causative pathogen of anthrax, is a spore-forming, environmentally maintained bacterium that continues to be a veterinary health problem with outbreaks occurring primarily in wildlife and livestock. Globally, the genetic populations of B. anthracis include multiple lineages, and each may have different ecological requirements and geographical distributions. It is, therefore, essential to identify environmental associations within lineages to predict geographical distributions and risk areas with improved accuracy. Here, we model the ecological niche and predict the geography of the most widespread sublineage of B. anthracis in the continental United States using updated MERRA-derived (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications; the NASA atmospheric data reanalysis of satellite information with multiple data products) bioclimate variables (i.e., MERRAclim data) and updated soil variables. We filter the occurrence data associated with the A1.a/Western North American sub-lineage of B. anthracis from historical anthrax outbreaks using the multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat system. In addition, we also incorporate recent cases associated with B. anthracis A1.a sub-lineage from 2008 to 2012 in Montana, Colorado, and Texas. Our results provide the predicted distribution of the A1.a sub-lineage of B. anthracis for the United States with better predictive accuracy and higher spatial resolution than previous estimates. Our prediction serves as an improved disease risk map to better inform anthrax surveillance and control in the United States, particularly the Dakotas and Montana where this sub-lineage is persistent.