Spatial Risk Analysis of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, A Global Emerging Fungal Pathogen

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in the Arid and Thermally Extreme Sonoran Desert

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the causative agent of the devastating global amphibian disease chytridiomycosis, was not projected to threaten amphibians in hot and arid regions due to its sensitivity to heat and desiccation. However, Bd is being detected more frequently than ever in hot and arid regions of Australia and the USA, challenging our current understanding of the environmental tolerances of the pathogen under natural conditions. We surveyed for Bd in an extremely hot and arid portion of the Sonoran Desert, where the pathogen is not projected to occur, and related presence and prevalence of the pathogen to local environmental conditions. We collected eDNA samples from isolated desert water sites including six tinajas and 13 catchments in June and August of 2020 and swabbed a total of 281 anurans of three species (red-spotted toad Anaxyrus punctatus, Couch's spadefoot Scaphiopus couchii, and the Sonoran Desert toad Incillius alvarius) across five catchments and six tinajas from June to September of 2020. Overall, Bd occurred at 68.4% of sites, despite extreme heat and aridity routinely exceeding tolerances established in laboratory studies. Average summer maximum air and water temperatures were 40.7°C and 30.7°C, respectively, and sites received an average of just 16.9 mm of precipitation throughout the summer monsoon season. Prevalence was low (5.7%) across species and life stage. Our results demonstrate that Bd is capable of persisting and infecting amphibians beyond its projected range, indicating a need to account for higher thermal tolerances when quantifying risk of Bd presence and infection.

Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change

Years of outbreaks of woody canker (Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis) in the United States, Iran, and China have resulted in massive economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees. However, only limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat requirements have not been well evaluated due to a lack of research. In recent years, scientists have utilized the MaxEnt model to estimate the effect of global temperature and specific environmental conditions on species distribution. Using occurrence and high resolution ecological data, we predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of C. pullmanensis under twelve climate change scenarios by applying the MaxEnt model. We identified climatic factors, geography, soil, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. Then, we measured the suitable habitat area, the ratio of change in the area of suitable habitat, the expansion and shrinkage of maps under climate change, the direction and distance of range changes from the present to the end of the twenty-first century, and the effect of environmental variables. C. pullmanensis is mostly widespread in high-suitability regions in northwestern China, the majority of Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey, northern Chile, southwestern Argentina, and the west coast of California in the United States. Under future climatic conditions, climate changes of varied intensities favored the expansion of suitable habitats for C. pullmanensis in China. However, appropriate land areas are diminishing globally. The trend in migration is toward latitudes and elevations that are higher. The estimated area of possible suitability shifted eastward in China. The results of the present study are valuable not only for countries such as Morocco, Spain, Chile, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc., where the infection has not yet fully spread or been established, but also for nations where the species has been discovered. Authorities should take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to restrict the spread of C. pullmanensis. Countries with highly appropriate locations should increase their surveillance, risk assessment, and response capabilities.

Modeling current geographic distribution and future range shifts of Sanghuangporus under multiple climate change scenarios in China

The genus Sanghuangporus is well-known for its edible and medicinal values. In this study, the most comprehensive occurrence records of Sanghuangporus with accurate species identification are subjected to MaxEnt, to model the current geographic distribution and future range shifts under multiple climate change scenarios in China. The current potential distribution model of Sanghuangporus is excellently predicted as indicated by the value of Area Under Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve. The current potential distribution basically corresponds to the known occurrence records of Sanghuangporus, and provides clues to new suitable habitats. The critical environmental variables to the distribution are annual precipitation, host plant, annual mean temperature and elevation. Host plant is not the most critical contribution to the model, but it indeed plays a decisive role in restricting the distribution of Sanghuangporus. This role is further confirmed by the distribution area of the highly suitable habitat increasing by 155.468%, when excluding host plant from environmental variables. For future scenarios, generally the area of highly suitable habitat for Sanghuangporus extremely increases, but the locations do not change a lot. In conclusion, this study provides important ecological information for the utilization and conservation of the edible and medicinal fungus Sanghuangporus.

Global niche and range shifts of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a highly virulent amphibian-killing fungus

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is one of the world's most invasive species, and is responsible for chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease that has caused huge losses of global amphibian biodiversity. Few studies have investigated invasive Bd's niche and range relative to those of native Bd. In the present study, we applied niche and range dynamic models to investigate global niche and range dynamics between native and invasive Bd. Invasive Bd occupied wider and different niche positions than did native Bd. Additionally, invasive Bd was observed in hotter, colder, wetter, drier, and more labile climatic conditions. Contrast to most relevant studies presuming Bd's niche remaining stable, we found that invasive Bd rejected niche conservatism hypotheses, suggesting its high lability in niche, and huge invasion potential. Bd's niche non-conservatism may result in range lability, and small niche expansions could induce large increases in range. Niche shifts may therefore be a more sensitive indicator of invasion than are range shifts. Our findings indicate that Bd is a high-risk invasive fungus not only due to its high infection and mortality rates, but also due to its high niche and range lability, which enhance its ability to adapt to novel climatic conditions. Therefore, invasive Bd should be a high-priority focus species in strategizing against biological invasions.

Maximum Entropy Modeling the Distribution Area of Morchella Dill. ex Pers. Species in China under Changing Climate

Morchella is a kind of precious edible, medicinal fungi with a series of important effects, including anti-tumor and anti-oxidation effects. Based on the data of 18 environmental variables and the distribution sites of wild Morchella species, this study used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the changes in the geographic distribution of Morchella species in different historical periods (the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid Holocene (MH), current, 2050s and 2070s). The results revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) values of the receiver operating characteristic curves of different periods were all relatively high (>0.83), indicating that the results of the maximum entropy model are good. Species distribution modeling showed that the major factors influencing the geographical distribution of Morchella species were the precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), elevation, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) and the annual mean temperature (Bio1). The simulation of geographic distribution suggested that the current suitable habitat of Morchella was mainly located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and other provinces in China. Compared with current times, the suitable area in Northwest and Northeast China decreased in the LGM and MH periods. As for the future periods, the suitable habitats all increased under the different scenarios compared with those in contemporary times, showing a trend of expansion to Northeast and Northwest China. These results could provide a theoretical basis for the protection, rational exploitation and utilization of wild Morchella resources under scenarios of climate change.