Prevalence and overlap of Disease Management Program diseases in older hospitalized patients

Performance of Panel-Estimated GFR Among Hospitalized Older Adults

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Older adults represent nearly half of all hospitalized patients and are vulnerable to inappropriate dosing of medications eliminated through the kidneys. However, few studies in this population have evaluated the performance of equations for estimating the glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-particularly those that incorporate multiple filtration markers.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional diagnostic test substudy of a randomized clinical trial.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Adults≥65 years of age presenting to the emergency department of Copenhagen University Hospital Amager and Hvidovre in Hvidovre, Denmark, between October 2018 and April 2021.

TESTS COMPARED

Measured GFR (mGFR) determined using 99mTc-DTPA plasma clearance compared with estimated GFR (eGFR) calculated using 6 different equations based on creatinine; 3 based on creatinine and cystatin C combined; and 2 based on panels of markers including creatinine, cystatin C, β-trace protein (BTP) and/or β2-microglobulin (B2M).

OUTCOME

The performance of each eGFR equation compared with mGFR with respect to bias, relative bias, inaccuracy (1-P30), and root mean squared error (RMSE).

RESULTS

We assessed eGFR performance for 106 patients (58% female, median age 78.3 years, median mGFR 62.9mL/min/1.73m2). Among the creatinine-based equations, the 2009 CKD-EPIcr equation yielded the smallest relative bias (+4.2%). Among the creatinine-cystatin C combination equations, the 2021 CKD-EPIcomb equation yielded the smallest relative bias (-3.4%), inaccuracy (3.8%), and RMSE (0.139). Compared with the 2021 CKD-EPIcomb, the CKD-EPIpanel equation yielded a smaller RMSE (0.136) but larger relative bias (-4.0%) and inaccuracy (5.7%).

LIMITATIONS

Only White patients were included; only a subset of patients from the original clinical trial underwent GFR measurement; and filtration marker concentration can be affected by subclinical changes in volume status.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2009 CKD-EPIcr, 2021 CKD-EPIcomb, and CKD-EPIpanel equations performed best and notably outperformed their respective full-age spectrum equations. The addition of cystatin C to creatinine-based equations improved performance, while the addition of BTP and/or B2M yielded minimal improvement.

FUNDING

Grants from public sector industry (Amgros I/S) and government (Capital Region of Denmark).

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with registration number NCT03741283.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Inaccurate kidney function assessment can lead to medication errors, a common cause of hospitalization and early readmission among older adults. Several novel methods have been developed to estimate kidney function based on a panel of kidney function markers that can be measured from a single blood sample. We evaluated the accuracy of these new methods (relative to a gold standard method) among 106 hospitalized older adults. We found that kidney function estimates combining 2 markers (creatinine and cystatin C) were highly accurate and noticeably more accurate than estimates based on creatinine alone. Estimates incorporating additional markers such as β-trace protein and β2-microglobulin did not further improve accuracy.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

The effect of payment method and multimorbidity on health and healthcare utilisation

Purpose

Three types of payment methods have been introduced across European countries in attempts to encourage better, more integrated care of persons with multimorbidity: pay-for-performance; pay-for-coordination; and an all-inclusive payment method. We examine whether there are differences in the way these payment methods affect health and healthcare use in persons with multimorbidity.

Design/methodology/approach

Using individual-level survey data from twenty European countries, we examine unadjusted differences in average outcomes for the years 2011–2015 by whether countries adopted new payment methods for integrated care. We then test for a differential effect for multimorbid persons using linear, individual random effects regressions, including country and time fixed effects and clustering standard errors at the country level.

Findings

We find little effect of varying payment methods on key outcomes for multimorbid individuals despite the theoretical predictions and the rhetoric in many policy documents.

Research limitations/implications

Policymakers should bear in mind that the success of the payment method relies on the specific design of the incentives and their implementation. New effective models of care and how to incentivise these for multimorbid patients is an ongoing research priority.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to study the effects of payments for integration on the dimensions and populations these schemes intend to affect; health and healthcare use at the individual level for multimorbid individuals.

Longitudinal course of GDF15 levels before acute hospitalization and death in the general population

Growth differentiation 15 (GDF15) is a potential novel biomarker of biological aging. To separate the effects of chronological age and birth cohort from biological age, longitudinal studies investigating the associations of GDF15 levels with adverse health outcomes are needed. We investigated changes in GDF15 levels over 10 years in an age-stratified sample of the general population and their relation to the risk of acute hospitalization and death. Serum levels of GDF15 were measured three times in 5-year intervals in 2176 participants aged 30, 40, 50, or 60 years from the Danish population-based DAN-MONICA cohort. We assessed the association of single and repeated GDF15 measurements with the risk of non-traumatic acute hospitalizations. We tested whether changes in GDF15 levels over 10 years differed according to the frequency of hospitalizations within 2 years or survival within 20 years, after the last GDF15 measurement. The change in GDF15 levels over time was dependent on age and sex. Higher GDF15 levels and a greater increase in GDF15 levels were associated with an increased risk of acute hospitalization in adjusted Cox regression analyses. Participants with more frequent admissions within 2 years, and those who died within 20 years, after the last GDF15 measurement already had elevated GDF15 levels at baseline and experienced greater increases in GDF15 levels during the study. The change in GDF15 levels was associated with changes in C-reactive protein and biomarkers of kidney, liver, and cardiac function. Monitoring of GDF15 starting in middle-aged could be valuable for the prediction of adverse health outcomes.

Elevated suPAR Is an Independent Risk Marker for Incident Kidney Disease in Acute Medical Patients

Introduction

Identifying patients at high risk of developing kidney disease could lead to early clinical interventions that prevent or slow disease progression. Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is an inflammatory biomarker thought to be involved in the pathogenesis and development of kidney disease. We aimed to determine whether elevated plasma suPAR measured at hospital admission is associated with incident kidney disease in patients presenting to the emergency department.

Materials and Methods

This was a retrospective registry-based cohort study performed at the Emergency Department of Copenhagen University Hospital Amager and Hvidovre, Hvidovre, Denmark. Patients were included in the study from November 2013 to March 2017 and followed until June 2017. Patients were excluded if they were diagnosed with kidney disease or died prior to index discharge. Plasma suPAR was measured at hospital admission, and the main outcome was time to incident kidney disease, defined by ICD-10 diagnosis codes for both chronic and acute kidney conditions. Association between suPAR and time to incident kidney disease was assessed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.

Results

In total, 25,497 patients (median age 58.1 years; 52.5% female) were admitted to the emergency department and followed for development of kidney disease. In multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, eGFR, CRP, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and diabetes, each doubling in suPAR at hospital admission was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.57 (95% CI: 1.38–1.78, P < 0.001) for developing a chronic kidney condition and 2.51 (95% CI: 2.09–3.01, P < 0.001) for developing an acute kidney condition.

Discussion

In a large cohort of acutely hospitalized medical patients, elevated suPAR was independently associated with incident chronic and acute kidney conditions. This highlights the potential for using suPAR in risk classification models to identify high-risk patients who could benefit from early clinical interventions. The main limitation of this study is its reliance on accurate reporting of ICD-10 codes for kidney disease.

Patterns of Multimorbidity and Differences in Healthcare Utilization and Complexity Among Acutely Hospitalized Medical Patients (≥65 Years) - A Latent Class Approach

PURPOSE

The majority of acutely admitted older medical patients are multimorbid, receive multiple drugs, and experience a complex treatment regime. To be able to optimize treatment and care, we need more knowledge of the association between different patterns of multimorbidity and healthcare utilization and the complexity thereof. The purpose was therefore to investigate patterns of multimorbidity in a Danish national cohort of acutely hospitalized medical patients aged 65 and older and to determine the association between these multimorbid patterns with the healthcare utilization and complexity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Longitudinal cohort study of 129,900 (53% women) patients. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to develop patterns of multimorbidity based on 22 chronic conditions ascertained from Danish national registers. A latent class regression was used to test for differences in healthcare utilization and healthcare complexity among the patterns measured in the year leading up to the index admission.

RESULTS

LCA identified eight distinct multimorbid patterns. Patients belonging to multimorbid patterns including the major chronic conditions; diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was associated with higher odds of healthcare utilization and complexity than the reference pattern ("Minimal chronic conditions"). The pattern with the highest number of chronic conditions did not show the highest healthcare utilization nor complexity.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that chronic conditions cluster together and that these patterns differ in healthcare utilization and complexity. Patterns of multimorbidity have the potential to be used in epidemiological studies of healthcare planning but should be confirmed in other population-based studies.

A Collaborative Medication Review Including Deprescribing for Older Patients in an Emergency Department: A Longitudinal Feasibility Study

Medication review for older patients with polypharmacy in the emergency department (ED) is crucial to prevent inappropriate prescribing. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of a collaborative medication review in older medical patients (≥65 years) using polypharmacy (≥5 long-term medications). A pharmacist performed the medication review using the tools: Screening Tool of Older Persons’ potentially inappropriate Prescriptions (STOPP) criteria, a drug–drug interaction database (SFINX), and Renbase^® (renal dosing database). A geriatrician received the medication review and decided which recommendations should be implemented. The outcomes were: differences in Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI) and Assessment of Underutilization Index (AOU) scores between admission and 30 days after discharge and the percentage of patients for which the intervention was completed before discharge. Sixty patients were included from the ED, the intervention was completed before discharge for 50 patients (83%), and 39 (61.5% male; median age 80 years) completed the follow-up 30 days after discharge. The median MAI score decreased from 14 (IQR 8-20) at admission to 8 (IQR 2-13) 30 days after discharge (p < 0.001). The number of patients with an AOU score ≥1 was reduced from 36% to 10% (p < 0.001). Thirty days after discharge, 83% of the changes were sustained and for 28 patients (72%), 1≥ medication had been deprescribed. In conclusion, a collaborative medication review and deprescribing intervention is feasible to perform in the ED.

Urban-rural and socioeconomic status: Impact on multimorbidity prevalence in hospitalized patients

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to describe multimorbidity prevalence in hospitalized adults, by urban-rural area of residence and socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

Linked hospital episode data were used. Adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital as an inpatient during 2014 in Grampian, Scotland, were included. Conditions were identified from admissions during the 5 years prior to the first admission in 2014. Multimorbidity was defined as ≥2 conditions and measured using Tonelli et al. based on International Classification of Diseases-10 coding (preselected list of 30 conditions). We used proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to summarize the prevalence of multimorbidity by age group, sex, urban-rural category and deprivation. The association between multimorbidity and patient characteristics was assessed using the χ 2 test.

RESULTS

Forty one thousand five hundred and forty-five patients were included (median age 62, 52.6% female). Overall, 27.4% (95% CI 27.0, 27.8) of patients were multimorbid. Multimorbidity prevalence was 28.8% (95% CI 28.1, 29.5) in large urban versus 22.0% (95% CI 20.9, 23.3) in remote rural areas and 28.7% (95% CI 27.2, 30.3) in the most deprived versus 26.0% (95% CI 25.2, 26.9) in the least deprived areas. This effect was consistent in all age groups, but not statistically significant in the age group 18-29 years. Multimorbidity increased with age but was similar for males and females.

CONCLUSION

Given the scarcity of research into the effect of urban-rural area and SES on multimorbidity prevalence among hospitalized patients, these findings should inform future research into new models of care, including the consideration of urban-rural area and SES.

Combining National Early Warning Score With Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor (suPAR) Improves Risk Prediction in Acute Medical Patients: A Registry-Based Cohort Study

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Objectives:

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor is a prognostic biomarker associated with critical illness, disease progression, and risk of mortality. We aimed to evaluate whether soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor adds prognostic value to a vital sign-based score for clinical monitoring of patient risk (National Early Warning Score) in acute medical patients.

Design:

Registry-based observational cohort study of consecutively admitted acute medical patients.

Setting:

The Acute Medical Unit, Copenhagen University Hospital Amager and Hvidovre, Hvidovre, Denmark.

Patients:

Acute medical patients admitted between November 18, 2013, and September 30, 2015.

Interventions:

None.

Measurements and Main Results:

Of 17,312 included patients, admission National Early Warning Score was available for 16,244 (93.8%). During follow-up, 587 patients (3.4%) died in-hospital, 859 (5.0%) within 30 days, and 1,367 (7.9%) within 90 days. High soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor was significantly associated with in-hospital-, 30-day-, and 90-day mortality within all National Early Warning Score groups, in particular in patients with a low National Early Warning Score; for 30-day mortality, mortality rate ratios ranged from 3.45 (95% CI, 2.91–4.10) for patients with National Early Warning Score 0–1, to 1.86 (95% CI, 1.47–2.34) for patients with National Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 9 for every doubling in soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (log₂-transformed). Combining National Early Warning Score, age, and sex with soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor improved prediction of in-hospital-, 30-day-, and 90-day mortality, increasing the area under the curve (95% CI) for 30-day mortality from 0.86 (0.85–0.87) to 0.90 (0.89–0.91), p value of less than 0.0001, with a negative predictive value of 99.0%.

Conclusions:

The addition of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor to National Early Warning Score significantly improved risk prediction of both low- and high-risk acute medical patients. Patients with low National Early Warning Score but elevated soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor had mortality risks comparable to that of patients with higher National Early Warning Score.

Organizational transformation in health care: an activity theoretical analysis

PURPOSE

Older patients are at high risk of hospital readmission, which has led to an increasing number of screening and intervention programs. Knowledge on implementing screening tools for preventing readmissions in emergency department (ED), where the primary focus is often the present-day flow of patients, is scant. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether a new screening tool for predicting readmissions and functional decline in medical patients>65 years of age could be implemented and its influence on cross-continuum collaborations between the primary and secondary sectors.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

The study took place in an ED in Denmark, in collaboration with the surrounding municipalities. An evaluation workshop with nurses and leaders from the ED and the surrounding municipalities took place with the aim of investigating the organizational changes that occurred in daily practice after the implementation of the screening tool. The workshop was designed and analyzed using cultural historical activity theory (CHAT).

FINDINGS

The results showed that it was possible to develop collaboration between the two sectors during the test period. However, the screening tool created different transformations for the municipality employees and in the ED. The contradictions indicated that the screening tool did not mediate a general and sustained transformation in the cross-continuum collaboration.

RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS

Screening tools are not objective, neutral or "acontexual" artifacts and must always be adapted to the local context and sectors. CHAT offers a perspective to understand the collective object when working with organizational transformations and implementation.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

The study have shown that screening tools are not objective, neutral or "acontexual" artifacts and must always be adapted to the local context. This is called adaption process. This adaption requires time and resources that should be taken into consideration from the beginning of introduction of new screens.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

This paper contributes with knowledge about CHAT which offers a way to understand the leading collective object when working with organizational transformations and implementation. CHAT focuses not only on the structural changes but also on the cultural aspects of organizational changes, which is important if we want to reach a sustained change and implement the new screening tool in different sectors.