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Ben-Haim Y. Managing uncertainty in decision-making for conservation science. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14164. [PMID: 37551765 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Revised: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023]
Abstract
Science-based decision-making is the ideal. However, scientific knowledge is incomplete, and sometimes wrong. Responsible science-based policy, planning, and action must exploit knowledge while managing uncertainty. I considered the info-gap method to manage deep uncertainty surrounding knowledge that is used for decision-making in conservation. A central concept is satisficing, which means satisfying a critical requirement. Alternative decisions are prioritized based on their robustness to uncertainty, and critical outcome requirements are satisficed. Robustness is optimized; outcome is satisficed. This is called robust satisficing. A decision with a suboptimal outcome may be preferred over a decision with a putatively optimal outcome if the former can more robustly achieve an acceptable outcome. Many biodiversity conservation applications employ info-gap theory, under which parameter uncertainty but not uncertainty in functional relations is considered. I considered info-gap models of functional uncertainty, widely used outside of conservation science, as applied to conservation of a generic endangered species by translocation to a new region. I focused on 2 uncertainties: the future temperature is uncertain due to climate change, and the shape of the reproductive output function is uncertain due to translocation to an unfamiliar region. The value of new information is demonstrated based on the robustness function, and the info-gap opportuneness function demonstrates the potential for better-than-anticipated outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yakov Ben-Haim
- Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel
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Info-gap theory to determine cost-effective eradication of invasive species. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2744. [PMID: 36797315 PMCID: PMC9935532 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-29571-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Invasive species eradication campaigns often fail due to stochastic arrival events, unpredictable detectability and incorrect resource allocation. Severe uncertainty in model parameter estimates may skew the eradication policy results. Using info-gap decision theory, this research aims to provide managers with a method to quantify their confidence in realizing successful eradication of particular invasive species within their specified eradication budgets (i.e. allowed eradication cost) in face of information-gaps. The potential introduction of the Asian house gecko Hemidactylus frenatus to Barrow Island, Australia is used as a case study to illustrate the model. Results of this research demonstrate that, more robustness to uncertainty in the model parameters can be earnt by (1) increasing the allowed eradication cost (2) investment in pre-border quarantine and border inspection (i.e. prevention) or (3) investment in post-border detection surveillance. The combination of a post-border spatial dispersal model and info-gap decision theory demonstrates a novel and spatially efficient method for managers to evaluate the robustness of eradication policies for incursion of invasive species with unexpected behaviour. These methods can be used to provide insight into the success of management goals, in particular the eradication of invasive species on islands or in broader mainland areas. These insights will assist in avoiding eradication failure and wasteful budget allocation and labour investment.
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Wyse SV, Hulme PE. Dispersal potential rather than risk assessment scores predict the spread rate of non‐native pines across New Zealand. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah V. Wyse
- Bio‐Protection Research Centre Lincoln University Lincoln New Zealand
| | - Philip E. Hulme
- Bio‐Protection Research Centre Lincoln University Lincoln New Zealand
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West NM, Matlaga DP, Muthukrishnan R, Spyreas G, Jordan NR, Forester JD, Davis AS. Lack of Impacts during Early Establishment Highlights a Short-Term Management Window for Minimizing Invasions from Perennial Biomass Crops. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2017; 8:767. [PMID: 28555146 PMCID: PMC5430074 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2017.00767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2016] [Accepted: 04/24/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Managing intentional species introductions requires evaluating potential ecological risks. However, it is difficult to weigh costs and benefits when data about interactions between novel species and the communities they are introduced to are scarce. In anticipation of expanded cultivation of perennial biomass crops, we experimentally introduced Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus × giganteus (two non-native candidate biomass crops) into two different non-crop habitats (old field and flood-plain forest) to evaluate their establishment success and impact on ambient local communities. We followed these controlled introductions and the composition dynamics of the receiving communities over a 5-year period. Habitats differed widely in adult Miscanthus survival and reproduction potential between species, although seed persistence and seedling emergence were similar in the two biomass crops in both habitats. Few introductions survived in the floodplain forest habitat, and this mortality precluded analyses of their potential impacts there. In old field habitats, proportional survival ranged from 0.3 to 0.4, and plant survival and growth increased with age. However, there was no evidence of biomass crop species effects on community richness or evenness or strong impacts on the resident old field constituents across 5 years. These results suggest that Miscanthus species could establish outside of cultivated fields, but there will likely be a lag in any impacts on the receiving communities. Local North American invasions by M. sinensis and M. sacchariflorus display the potential for Miscanthus species to develop aggressively expanding populations. However, the weak short-term community-level impacts demonstrated in the current study indicate a clear management window in which eradicating species footholds is easily achieved, if they can be detected early enough. Diligent long-term monitoring, detection, and eradication plans are needed to successfully minimize harmful invasions from these biomass crops.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie M. West
- Pest Management Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, SidneyMT, USA
- Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, UrbanaIL, USA
| | - David P. Matlaga
- Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, UrbanaIL, USA
- Department of Biology, Susquehanna University, SelinsgrovePA, USA
| | - Ranjan Muthukrishnan
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. PaulMN, USA
| | - Greg Spyreas
- Prairie Research Institute, Illinois Natural History Survey, ChampaignIL, USA
| | - Nicholas R. Jordan
- Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics, University of Minnesota, St. PaulMN, USA
| | - James D. Forester
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. PaulMN, USA
| | - Adam S. Davis
- Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, UrbanaIL, USA
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West NM, Matlaga DP, Muthukrishnan R, Spyreas G, Jordan NR, Forester JD, Davis AS. Lack of Impacts during Early Establishment Highlights a Short-Term Management Window for Minimizing Invasions from Perennial Biomass Crops. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2017; 8:767. [PMID: 28555146 PMCID: PMC5430074 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2017.00767, 10.3389/fphys.2017.00767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2016] [Accepted: 04/24/2017] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Managing intentional species introductions requires evaluating potential ecological risks. However, it is difficult to weigh costs and benefits when data about interactions between novel species and the communities they are introduced to are scarce. In anticipation of expanded cultivation of perennial biomass crops, we experimentally introduced Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus × giganteus (two non-native candidate biomass crops) into two different non-crop habitats (old field and flood-plain forest) to evaluate their establishment success and impact on ambient local communities. We followed these controlled introductions and the composition dynamics of the receiving communities over a 5-year period. Habitats differed widely in adult Miscanthus survival and reproduction potential between species, although seed persistence and seedling emergence were similar in the two biomass crops in both habitats. Few introductions survived in the floodplain forest habitat, and this mortality precluded analyses of their potential impacts there. In old field habitats, proportional survival ranged from 0.3 to 0.4, and plant survival and growth increased with age. However, there was no evidence of biomass crop species effects on community richness or evenness or strong impacts on the resident old field constituents across 5 years. These results suggest that Miscanthus species could establish outside of cultivated fields, but there will likely be a lag in any impacts on the receiving communities. Local North American invasions by M. sinensis and M. sacchariflorus display the potential for Miscanthus species to develop aggressively expanding populations. However, the weak short-term community-level impacts demonstrated in the current study indicate a clear management window in which eradicating species footholds is easily achieved, if they can be detected early enough. Diligent long-term monitoring, detection, and eradication plans are needed to successfully minimize harmful invasions from these biomass crops.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie M. West
- Pest Management Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, SidneyMT, USA
- Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, UrbanaIL, USA
| | - David P. Matlaga
- Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, UrbanaIL, USA
- Department of Biology, Susquehanna University, SelinsgrovePA, USA
| | - Ranjan Muthukrishnan
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. PaulMN, USA
| | - Greg Spyreas
- Prairie Research Institute, Illinois Natural History Survey, ChampaignIL, USA
| | - Nicholas R. Jordan
- Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics, University of Minnesota, St. PaulMN, USA
| | - James D. Forester
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. PaulMN, USA
| | - Adam S. Davis
- Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service, UrbanaIL, USA
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Vanderhoeven S, Branquart E, Casaer J, D’hondt B, Hulme PE, Shwartz A, Strubbe D, Turbé A, Verreycken H, Adriaens T. Beyond protocols: improving the reliability of expert-based risk analysis underpinning invasive species policies. Biol Invasions 2017. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-017-1434-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Abstract
Agricultural intensification is critical to meet global food demand, but intensification threatens native species and degrades ecosystems. Sustainable intensification (SI) is heralded as a new approach for enabling growth in agriculture while minimizing environmental impacts. However, the SI literature has overlooked a major environmental risk. Using data from eight countries on six continents, we show that few governments regulate conventionally bred pasture taxa to limit threats to natural areas, even though most agribusinesses promote taxa with substantial weed risk. New pasture taxa (including species, subspecies, varieties, cultivars, and plant-endophyte combinations) are bred with characteristics typical of invasive species and environmental weeds. By introducing novel genetic and endophyte variation, pasture taxa are imbued with additional capacity for invasion and environmental impact. New strategies to prevent future problems are urgently needed. We highlight opportunities for researchers, agribusiness, and consumers to reduce environmental risks associated with new pasture taxa. We also emphasize four main approaches that governments could consider as they build new policies to limit weed risks, including (i) national lists of taxa that are prohibited based on environmental risk; (ii) a weed risk assessment for all new taxa; (iii) a program to rapidly detect and control new taxa that invade natural areas; and (iv) the polluter-pays principle, so that if a taxon becomes an environmental weed, industry pays for its management. There is mounting pressure to increase livestock production. With foresight and planning, growth in agriculture can be achieved sustainably provided that the scope of SI expands to encompass environmental weed risks.
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van Klinken RD, Panetta FD, Coutts S, Simon BK. Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia. Biol Invasions 2014. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-014-0749-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Lampert A, Hastings A, Grosholz ED, Jardine SL, Sanchirico JN. Optimal approaches for balancing invasive species eradication and endangered species management. Science 2014; 344:1028-31. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1250763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Decision science for effective management of populations subject to stochasticity and imperfect knowledge. POPUL ECOL 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-013-0421-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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Yokomizo H, Naito W, Tanaka Y, Kamo M. Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management. CHEMOSPHERE 2013; 93:2224-2229. [PMID: 24125713 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2013.07.062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2013] [Accepted: 07/23/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiroyuki Yokomizo
- Center for Environmental Risk Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan.
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Richter R, Berger UE, Dullinger S, Essl F, Leitner M, Smith M, Vogl G. Spread of invasive ragweed: climate change, management and how to reduce allergy costs. J Appl Ecol 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Robert Richter
- Faculty of Physics; University of Vienna; Strudlhofgasse 4 1090 Wien Austria
| | - Uwe E. Berger
- Department of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology; Medical University of Vienna; 1090 Wien Austria
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Faculty Centre of Biodiversity; University of Vienna; Rennweg 14 1030 Wien Austria
- Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses; Giessergasse 6/7 1090 Wien Austria
| | - Franz Essl
- Faculty Centre of Biodiversity; University of Vienna; Rennweg 14 1030 Wien Austria
- Environment Agency Austria; Spittelauer Lände 5 1090 Wien Austria
| | - Michael Leitner
- Heinz Maier-Leibnitz Zentrum (MLZ); Technische Universität München; Lichtenbergstr. 1 85748 Garching Germany
| | - Matthew Smith
- Department of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology; Medical University of Vienna; 1090 Wien Austria
| | - Gero Vogl
- Faculty of Physics; University of Vienna; Strudlhofgasse 4 1090 Wien Austria
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van Klinken RD, Panetta FD, Coutts SR. Are high-impact species predictable? An analysis of naturalised grasses in northern Australia. PLoS One 2013; 8:e68678. [PMID: 23874718 PMCID: PMC3706395 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0068678] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2013] [Accepted: 06/02/2013] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of affected sectors and the relative rarity of high-impact species.
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Ööpik M, Bunce RGB, Tischler M. Horticultural markets promote alien species invasions: an Estonian case study of herbaceous perennials. NEOBIOTA 2013. [DOI: 10.3897/neobiota.17.4217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
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