1
|
Buddenhagen CE, Xing Y, Andrade-Piedra JL, Forbes GA, Kromann P, Navarrete I, Thomas-Sharma S, Choudhury RA, Andersen Onofre KF, Schulte-Geldermann E, Etherton BA, Plex Sulá AI, Garrett KA. Where to Invest Project Efforts for Greater Benefit: A Framework for Management Performance Mapping with Examples for Potato Seed Health. PHYTOPATHOLOGY 2022; 112:1431-1443. [PMID: 34384240 DOI: 10.1094/phyto-05-20-0202-r] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Policymakers and donors often need to identify the locations where technologies are most likely to have important effects, to increase the benefits from agricultural development or extension efforts. Higher-quality information may help to target the high-benefit locations, but often actions are needed with limited information. The value of information (VOI) in this context is formalized by evaluating the results of decision making guided by a set of specific information compared with the results of acting without considering that information. We present a framework for management performance mapping that includes evaluating the VOI for decision making about geographic priorities in regional intervention strategies, in case studies of Andean and Kenyan potato seed systems. We illustrate the use of recursive partitioning, XGBoost, and Bayesian network models to characterize the relationships among seed health and yield responses and environmental and management predictors used in studies of seed degeneration. These analyses address the expected performance of an intervention based on geographic predictor variables. In the Andean example, positive selection of seed from asymptomatic plants was more effective at high altitudes in Ecuador. In the Kenyan example, there was the potential to target locations with higher technology adoption rates and with higher potato cropland connectivity, i.e., a likely more important role in regional epidemics. Targeting training to high management performance areas would often provide more benefits than would random selection of target areas. We illustrate how assessing the VOI can contribute to targeted development programs and support a culture of continuous improvement for interventions.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- C E Buddenhagen
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- AgResearch, Ltd., Ruakura, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Y Xing
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
| | | | | | - P Kromann
- International Potato Center, Lima, Peru
- Field Crops, Wageningen University and Research, Lelystad, The Netherlands
| | - I Navarrete
- International Potato Center, Lima, Peru
- Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Knowledge, Technology and Innovation, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - S Thomas-Sharma
- Department of Plant Pathology and Crop Physiology, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, U.S.A
| | - R A Choudhury
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- School of Earth, Environment, Marine Science, University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley, U.S.A
| | - K F Andersen Onofre
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, U.S.A
| | - E Schulte-Geldermann
- International Potato Center, Nairobi, Kenya
- Department of Agriculture, University of Applied Sciences Bingen, Bingen, Germany
| | - B A Etherton
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
| | - A I Plex Sulá
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
| | - K A Garrett
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Modelling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Two Trissolcus Species for the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys. INSECTS 2021; 12:insects12060491. [PMID: 34070564 PMCID: PMC8229174 DOI: 10.3390/insects12060491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2021] [Revised: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Simple Summary The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, has been accidentally introduced to Europe and North America, where it has become a key pest by feeding on numerous important crops. Although H. halys has not yet established in Australia, there is a general consensus that this is only a matter of time, and thus, it is prudent to investigate management options. Previous studies have modelled the potential distribution of H. halys and one of its principal natural enemies, Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae). Here, we developed a similar model of the potential distribution of Trissolcus mitsukurii (Ashmead), which is a primary parasitoid of H. halys in Japan, and which was introduced to Australia in the 1960s to control another introduced pest. We used the three models to examine the overlap in the projected distributions of both T. mitsukurii and T. japonicus with H. halys, and to assess the potential for the two Trissolcus species to help mitigate the impacts of H. halys in its global adventive range. Abstract The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to northeast Asia. It was accidentally introduced to Europe and North America, where it has become a key pest, feeding on many important crops. Previous eco-climatic niche modelling indicates that H. halys could expand its distribution vastly, and numerous border interceptions of this pest in many countries, including Australia and New Zealand, indicate that it would be prudent to prepare for its eventual arrival. Similar niche modelling was used to assess the potential distribution of Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae), the key parasitoid of H. halys in China. Trissolcus mitsukurii (Ashmead) is one of the main parasitoids of H. halys in Japan. It is known to have existed in Australia since the early 20th century and was also specifically introduced to Australia in the 1960s, and it has now also invaded Italy. We used CLIMEX to model the climatic niche of T. mitsukurii to estimate its global potential distribution. We found that T. mitsukurii should be able to significantly expand its range globally, and that there is a significant degree of overlap in the projected ranges of T. mitsukurii, T. japonicus and H. halys. From a biological control perspective, this implies that the two Trissolcus species may be able to help mitigate the potential impacts of H. halys.
Collapse
|
3
|
Turner RM, Plank MJ, Brockerhoff EG, Pawson S, Liebhold A, James A. Considering unseen arrivals in predictions of establishment risk based on border biosecurity interceptions. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02194. [PMID: 32524655 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2019] [Revised: 03/06/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Assessing species establishment risk is an important task used for informing biosecurity activities aimed at preventing biological invasions. Propagule pressure is a major contributor to the probability of invading species establishment; however, direct assessment of numbers of individuals arriving is virtually never possible. Inspections conducted at borders by biosecurity officials record counts of species (or higher-level taxa) intercepted during inspections, which can be used as proxies for arrival rates. Such data may therefore be useful for predicting species establishments, though some species may establish despite never being intercepted. We present a stochastic process-based model of the arrival-interception-establishment process to predict species establishment risk from interception count data. The model can be used to estimate the probability of establishment, both for species that were intercepted and species that had no interceptions during a given observation period. We fit the stochastic model to data on two insect families, Cerambycidae and Aphididae, that were intercepted and/or established in the United States or New Zealand. We also explore the effects of variation in model parameters and the inclusion of an Allee effect in the establishment probability. Although interception data sets contain much noise due to variation in inspection policy, interception effort and among-species differences in detectability, our study shows that it is possible to use such data for predicting establishments and distinguishing differences in establishment risk profile between taxonomic groups. Our model provides a method for predicting the number of species that have breached border biosecurity, including both species detected during inspections but also "unseen arrivals" that have never been intercepted, but have not yet established a viable population. These estimates could inform prioritization of different taxonomic groups, pathways or identification effort in biosecurity programs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca M Turner
- Scion (New Zealand Forest Research Institute), Christchurch, 8440, P.O. Box 29237, New Zealand
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
| | - Michael J Plank
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand
| | - Eckehard G Brockerhoff
- Scion (New Zealand Forest Research Institute), Christchurch, 8440, P.O. Box 29237, New Zealand
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Stephen Pawson
- Scion (New Zealand Forest Research Institute), Christchurch, 8440, P.O. Box 29237, New Zealand
- School of Forestry, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand
| | - Andrew Liebhold
- USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station, Morgantown, West Virginia, 26505, USA
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, 165 00, Praha 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Alex James
- Te Pūnaha Matatini, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand
| |
Collapse
|