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Beukema W, Erens J, Schulz V, Stegen G, Spitzen-van der Sluijs A, Stark T, Laudelout A, Kinet T, Kirschey T, Poulain M, Miaud C, Steinfartz S, Martel A, Pasmans F. Landscape epidemiology of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans: reconciling data limitations and conservation urgency. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02342. [PMID: 33817953 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2020] [Revised: 12/01/2020] [Accepted: 01/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Starting in 2010, rapid fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population declines in northwestern Europe heralded the emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a salamander-pathogenic chytrid fungus. Bsal poses an imminent threat to global salamander diversity owing to its wide host range, high pathogenicity, and long-term persistence in ecosystems. While there is a pressing need to develop further research and conservation actions, data limitations inherent to recent pathogen emergence obscure necessary insights into Bsal disease ecology. Here, we use a hierarchical modeling framework to describe Bsal landscape epidemiology of outbreak sites in light of these methodological challenges. Using model selection and machine learning, we find that Bsal presence is associated with humid and relatively cool, stable climates. Outbreaks are generally located in areas characterized by low landscape heterogeneity and low steepness of slope. We further find an association between Bsal presence and high trail density, suggesting that human-mediated spread may increase risk for spillover between populations. We then use distribution modeling to show that favorable conditions occur in lowlands influenced by the North Sea, where increased survey effort is needed to determine how Bsal impacts local newt populations, but also in hill- and mountain ranges in northeastern France and the lower half of Germany. Finally, connectivity analyses suggest that these hill- and mountain ranges may act as stepping stones for further spread southward. Our results provide initial insight into regional environmental conditions underlying Bsal epizootics, present updated invasibility predictions for northwestern Europe, and lead us to discuss a wide variety of potential survey and research actions needed to advance future conservation and mitigation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wouter Beukema
- Wildlife Health Ghent, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, Merelbeke, 9820, Belgium
- Naturalis Biodiversity Center, P.O. Box␣9517, Leiden, 2300RA, the Netherlands
| | - Jesse Erens
- Naturalis Biodiversity Center, P.O. Box␣9517, Leiden, 2300RA, the Netherlands
| | - Vanessa Schulz
- Molecular Evolution and Systematics of Animals, Institute of Biology, University of Leipzig, Talstrasse 33, Leipzig, 04103, Germany
- Technische Universität Braunschweig, Division of Evolutionary Biology, Zoological Institute, Mendelssohnstrasse 4, Braunschweig, 38106, Germany
| | - Gwij Stegen
- Wildlife Health Ghent, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, Merelbeke, 9820, Belgium
| | | | - Tariq Stark
- Reptile, Amphibian & Fish Conservation Netherlands (RAVON), Toernooiveld 1, Nijmegen, 6525ED, the Netherlands
| | - Arnaud Laudelout
- Reptile, Amphibian & Fish Conservation Netherlands (RAVON), Toernooiveld 1, Nijmegen, 6525ED, the Netherlands
| | - Thierry Kinet
- Natagora, Traverse des Muses 1, Namur, 5000, Belgium
| | - Tom Kirschey
- Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union (NABU), Charitéstrasse 3, Berlin, 10117, Germany
| | - Marie Poulain
- Biogeography and Vertebrate Ecology, CEFE, EPHE-PSL, CNRS, University of Montpellier, Paul Valéry University Montpellier III, 1919 route de Mende, Montpellier, 34293, France
| | - Claude Miaud
- Biogeography and Vertebrate Ecology, CEFE, EPHE-PSL, CNRS, University of Montpellier, Paul Valéry University Montpellier III, 1919 route de Mende, Montpellier, 34293, France
| | - Sebastian Steinfartz
- Molecular Evolution and Systematics of Animals, Institute of Biology, University of Leipzig, Talstrasse 33, Leipzig, 04103, Germany
| | - An Martel
- Wildlife Health Ghent, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, Merelbeke, 9820, Belgium
| | - Frank Pasmans
- Wildlife Health Ghent, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, Merelbeke, 9820, Belgium
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