A prognostic model of early breast cancer relapse after standard adjuvant therapy and comparison with metastatic disease on initial presentation

Identifying and Validating of an Autophagy-Related Gene Signature for the Prediction of Early Relapse in Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Compelling evidence has demonstrated the pivotal role of autophagy in the prognosis of breast cancer. Breast cancer (BC) patients with early relapse consistently exhibited worse survival.

METHODS

The autophagy-related genes were derived from the Human Autophagy Database (HADb) and high-sequencing data were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Discrepantly expressed autophagy genes (DEAGs) between early relapse and long-term survival groups were performed using the Linear Models for Microarray data (LIMMA) method. Lasso Cox regression analysis was conducted for the selection of the 4-gene autophagy-related gene signature. GSE42568 and GSE21653 databases were enrolled in this study for the external validation of the signature. Then patients were divided into high and low-risk groups based on the specific score formula. GSEA was used to discover the related signaling pathway. The Kaplan-Meier curves and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the discrimination and accuracy of the 4-gene signature.

RESULTS

A signature composed of four autophagy-related mRNA including APOL1, HSPA8, SIRT1, and TP73, was identified as significantly associated with the early relapse in BC patients. Time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic at 1 year suggested remarkable accuracy of the signature [area under the curve (AUC = 0.748)]. The risk score model based on the autophagy-related signature showed favorable predicting value in 1-, 2-, and 3-year relapse-free survival (RFS) in training and two validating cohorts. The GSEA displayed gene sets were remarkably enriched in carcinogenic activation pathways and autophagy-related pathways. The nomogram involving three variables (progesterone receptor status, T stage, and 4-gene signature) exhibited relatively good discrimination with a C-index of 0.766.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study establishes an autophagy-related 4-gene signature that can effectively stratify the high-risk and low-risk BC patients for early relapse. Combined with the clinicopathological variables, the signature could significantly help oncologists tailor more efficient treatment strategies for BC patients.

OUP accepted manuscript

Purpose

About 10% of breast cancer (BC) is diagnosed in stage IV. This study sought to identify factors associated with time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS) in a cohort of patients diagnosed with de novo metastatic breast cancer (MBC), from a single cancer center in Colombia, given that information on this aspect is limited.

Methodology

An observational, analytical, and retrospective cohort study was carried out. Time to progression and OS rates were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier survival functions. Cox models were developed to assess association between time to progression and time to death, using a group of fixed variables.

Results

Overall, 175 patients were included in the study; 33.7% of patients had luminal B HER2-negative tumors, 49.7% had bone involvement, and 83.4% had multiple metastatic sites. Tumor biology and primary tumor surgery were the variables associated with TTP and OS. Patients with luminal A tumors had the lowest progression and mortality rates (10 per 100 patients/year (95% CI: 5.0-20.0) and 12.6 per 100 patients/year (95% CI: 6.9-22.7), respectively), and patients with triple-negative tumors had the highest progression and mortality rates (40 per 100 patients/year (95% CI: 23.2-68.8) and 44.1 per 100 patients/year (95% CI: 28.1-69.1), respectively). Across the cohort, the median TTP was 2.1 years (95% CI: 1.6; the upper limit cannot be reached) and the median OS was 2.4 years (95% CI: 2-4.3).

Conclusions

In this cohort, patients with luminal A tumors and those who underwent tumor surgery given that they presented clinical benefit (CB) after initial systemic treatment, had the lowest progression and mortality rates. Overall, OS was inferior to other series due to high tumor burden and difficulties in accessing and continuing oncological treatments.

De novo metastatic breast cancer: Subgroup analysis of molecular subtypes and prognosis

The purpose of the present study was to analyze the clinical and pathological characteristics, treatment, and prognosis of de novo metastatic breast cancer (DnMBC). Information regarding 1,890 patients treated for advanced breast cancer at the Tianjin Medical University Cancer Hospital between January 2008 to December 2017 was collected. Clinicopathological characteristics, treatments and outcomes of these patients were compared using the chi-square test, log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. A total of 171 patients were diagnosed with DnMBC. The median age at diagnosis was 53 years (range, 23–77). The percentage of T4 staging was higher (37.4%), 69.6% of patients were estrogen receptor (ER) positive, 59.1% were progesterone receptor positive, 29.8% had positive human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, 68.4% had Ki-67 ≥20%, 55% had oligometastasis at the initial diagnosis, ~87.7% were treated with chemotherapy initially and 24% received palliative surgery for the primary tumor. After a median follow-up time of 26 months, the median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) among patients with DnMBC were 11 (8.7–13.3) months and 34 (27.9–40.1) months, respectively. In the multivariable model, ER status and sites of first metastasis (oligometastasis or polymetastasis) were identified to be independent predictors of PFS (P<0.05); ER status, primary tumor stage, and surgical treatment of primary tumors were identified to be independent predictors of OS (P<0.05). In conclusion, the clinicopathological characteristics of DnMBC are greater invasiveness and a higher risk of progression. Palliative surgical treatment may improve the prognosis of HR+/HER2-patients with oligometastasis. Therefore, individualized treatment as required is particularly important.

Establishing a predicted model to evaluate prognosis for initially diagnosed metastatic Her2-positive breast cancer patients and exploring the benefit from local surgery

BACKGROUND

For patients initially diagnosed with metastatic Her2-positive breast cancer (MHBC), we intended to construct a nomogram with risk stratification to predict prognosis and to explore the role of local surgery.

METHODS

We retrieved data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Kaplan-Meier (KM) method and log-rank test were used for the selection of significant variables. Cox regression analysis and Fine-Gray test were utilized to confirm independent prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). A nomogram predicting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS was developed and validated. Patients were stratified based on the optimal cut-off values of total personal score. KM method and log-rank test were used to estimate OS prognosis and benefit from local surgery and chemotherapy.

RESULTS

There were 1680 and 717 patients in the training and validation cohort. Age, race, marriage, T stage, estrogen receptor (ER) status, visceral metastasis (bone, brain, liver and lung) were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS and BCSS, while histology was also corelated with OS. C-indexes in the training and validation cohort were 0.70 and 0.68, respectively. Calibration plots indicated precise predictive ability. The total population was divided into low- (<141 points), intermediate- (142-208 points), and high-risk (>208 points) prognostic groups. Local surgery and chemotherapy brought various degrees of survival benefit for patients with diverse-risk prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed a model with accurate prediction and discrimination. It would provide a reference for clinicians' decision-making. Surgery on the primary lesion was recommended for patients with good physical performance status, while further study on optimal surgical opportunity was needed.

Examination of a paradox: recurrent metastatic breast cancer incidence decline without improved distant disease survival: 1990-2011

Purpose

Distant relapse metastatic breast cancer (rMBC) incidence and survival are vital measures of breast cancer diagnosis and treatment progress over time.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of stage I–III invasive breast cancer, 1990–2011, follow-up through 2016 [N = 8292, rMBC = 964 (12%)] at a community-based institution. Patient and tumor characteristics (treatment, distant recurrence, vital status) from BC registry data were evaluated. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards (HzR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using distant recurrence and distant disease-specific survival (DDSS) endpoints.

Results

Both 5- and 10-year distant relapse (rMBC) declined over time from 1990–1998 to 2005–2011 [11% to 5%, 16% to 8% (p < 0.001)]. Proportionately, HER2 + BC distant relapse decreased 9% and triple negative (HR−/HER2−) increased 8% (p = 0.011). In the Cox model, lower stage [stage I: HzR = 0.08 (0.07, 0.10), stage II: 0.29 (0.25, 0.33)], more recent diagnosis years [1999–2004: HzR = 0.60 (0.51, 0.70), 2005–2011: HzR = 0.44 (0.38, 0.52)], HR+ [HzR = 0.62 (0.53, 0.72)], and age 40+ [HzR = 0.81 (0.67, 0.98)] had decreased rMBC risk. Compared to HR+/HER2− BC, triple-negative BC had increased rMBC risk [HzR = 2.02 (1.61, 2.53)] but HER2+ subtypes did not. HR−, age 70+, > 1, or visceral metastases and stage III disease were associated with worse DDSS. DDSS did not improve over time.

Conclusion

rMBC incidence declined over time with decreased HER2-positive distant recurrence, a shift to more triple-negative BC and consistently poor distant disease survival.

Reduced Expression of TET1, TET2, TET3 and TDG mRNAs Are Associated with Poor Prognosis of Patients with Early Breast Cancer

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic role of ten eleven translocation (TET) family proteins and DNA glycosylase (TDG) in patients with early breast cancer (EBC).

Methods

Expression of mRNAs encoding TET1–3 and TDG in 162 breast cancer tissues was quantified using real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis. The general characteristics of patients and clinicopathologic factors were collected. Estimation of patient survival was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method, and independent prognostic indicators were analyzed using Cox regression analysis.

Results

The level of TET1 mRNA was significantly related to overall survival (OS) (P = 0.022). Multivariate analysis shows that the TNM stage was an independent predictor of disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 1.761, 95% CI: 1.124–2.761, P = 0.014) and OS (HR = 2.135, 95% CI: 1.070–4.263, P = 0.032). Further, in patients with EBC who were treated with anthracyclines, Kaplan–Meier analysis indicates that the levels of TET3 and TDG mRNAs were related to DFS (P = 0.026 and 0.030, respectively), and multivariate analysis reveals that high levels of TET3 (HR = 1.944, 95% CI: 1.029–3.672, P = 0.040) and TDG (HR = 2.178, 95% CI: 1.140–4.163, P = 0.018) mRNAs were independent indicators of favorable DFS.

Conclusions

Our study indicates that EBC patients with decreased expression of TET1 mRNA had worse OS and that the levels of TET3 and TDG mRNAs were independent prognostic factors for patients who received anthracycline chemotherapy.

PAX6 overexpression is associated with the poor prognosis of invasive ductal breast cancer

Paired box 6 (PAX6) plays a significant role in the development of human neuroectodermal epithelial tissues. Previous studies have suggested that the PAX6 promoter is hypermethylated in breast cancer and that it is involved in breast cancer cell proliferation. The present study aimed to investigate the expression of PAX6 in invasive breast cancer tissues, and to evaluate its prognostic significance. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was used to detect PAX6 expression on a breast cancer tissue microarray containing tissues from 111 patients. Associations of PAX6 expression with staging and prognosis were analyzed. PAX6 was mainly expressed in the nucleus. The PAX6 staining intensity was not associated with age, histological grade, lymph node status, tumor size, or progesterone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 expression (all P>0.05). A high level of PAX6 staining was more frequent in estrogen receptor (ER)-negative cases compared with ER-positive cases (43.9 vs. 25.7%; P=0.049). After a median follow-up time of 110 months, the patients with low PAX6 expression exhibited an improved survival rate compared with the patients with high PAX6 expression (P<0.001). Cox analysis showed a worse survival rate in the patients with high PAX6 staining (hazard ratio, 3.458; 95% confidence interval, 1.575-7.593; P=0.002). In conclusion, high tumor PAX6 staining intensity by IHC was associated with a poor prognosis in breast cancer patients.

Twenty-years experience with de novo metastatic breast cancer

Although new treatments have been widely studied to improve the survival of patients with metastatic breast cancer (BC), prognosis continues to be poor with an average survival time no longer than 3 years. We carried on a population-based study with the purpose of evaluating the outcome of metastatic breast cancer in the province of Modena from 1990 to 2009. We examined the Modena Cancer Registry and evaluated the 5-year overall survival (OS) of women diagnosed with a de novo metastatic breast cancer between 1990 and 2009, defining 5 periods of 4 years each. After a median follow-up time of 29 months, the 5-year OS was 11% for years 1990-1993, 15% for years 1994-1997, 12% for years 1998-2001, 20% for years 2002-2005 and 29% for years 2006-2009 (p = 0.012). Overall, although no OS differences were noted in the first decade analyzed, a real advantage has been shown in the last two cohorts. In a multivariate analysis, the 5-year OS was significantly increased only for hormone receptor positive and HER2+ tumors, whereas chemotherapy treatments were not significant independent predictors of survival in "de novo" metastatic BC (p = 0.08). Our analysis confirms that the prognosis of de novo metastatic breast cancer has improved overtime, particularly in the last decade. Trastuzumab, LH-RH analogues and aromatase inhibitors have determined a significant clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness in metastatic breast cancer treatment.

Overexpression of HER2/neu as a Prognostic Value in Iranian Women With Early Stage Breast Cancer; A Single Institute Study

Background:

Patients with early stage breast cancer with same treatment strategy can have markedly different outcomes. Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2/nue) gene amplification or the subsequent overexpression of protein has been proved to be associated with patient's outcome and response to anthracyclins-based regimens.

Objectives:

This study assessed prognostic value of HER2/nue marker in patients with early stage breast cancer who received adjuvant chemotherapy with anthracyclins-based regimens.

Materials and Methods:

Fifty tissue samples from patients with primary breast cancer of moderate risk receiving sequential adjuvant chemotherapy with anthracyclins-based regimens were assessed to evaluate HER2/nue gene status (quantified by Immunohistochemistry and fluorescence in situ hybridization) retrospectively. Besides, correlation of HER2/neu with patients' characteristics and outcome was studied.

Results:

HER2/neu amplification was identified in 19 (38%) of 50 patients. No significant difference regarding HER2/neu status was seen in clinic pathological characteristics of patients. Although Progression Free Survival (PFS) was shorter in HER2 overexpressed group, but uni/multivariate analysis adjusted for HER2 overexpression, nodal involvement, hormone receptor status, age and tumor size revealed no significant predictive and/or prognostic value for HER2 regarding PFS.

Conclusions:

This study on a limited number of patients treated with adjutant anthracyclins-based regimens, revealed that HER2/neu is not a unique strong predictor for outcome, thus according to combination of HER2/neu status and other clinical factors, it is necessary to distinguish patients at high risk of recurrence.

Prognostic significance of the progesterone receptor status in Ki67-high and -low Luminal B-like HER2-negative breast cancers

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, and immunohistochemical evaluation is a surrogate marker that is widely used in clinical settings to identify the intrinsic subtypes. The definition of the Luminal B-like breast cancer was changed at the 2013 St. Gallen meeting; therefore, we investigated the clinicopathological features of the new Luminal B-like breast cancer categorized in the latest definition. We also compared the conventional PgR-high Luminal B-like breast cancer with the conventional PgR-low or -negative Luminal B-like breast cancer.

PATIENTS

We investigated 118 Luminal HER2-negative breast cancer patients who were operated in 2005-2008 at a single institution. Data on each patient's medical history were retrieved.

RESULTS

A subset of patients (14.4 %) was categorized as the new Luminal B-like due to low or negative PgR: 58.8 % were histological grade I, 65 % were T1 in tumor size, and half had node involvement. Chemotherapy was performed in half of the cases. Breast cancer-related events were more frequent for the new Luminal B-like breast cancer than for the Luminal A-like breast cancer and were less frequent than for the conventional Luminal B-like breast cancer. Based on multivariate analysis, low or negative expression of PgR and the absence of hormonal therapy were worse prognostic factors. When categorized into two groups by the PgR status, 48.1 % of the conventional Luminal B-like breast cancer was PgR-high; tumor size was smaller, and nodal involvement was less in this group. The rate of adjuvant chemotherapy of the conventional PgR-high Luminal B-like breast cancer was less than that of the conventional PgR-low or -negative Luminal B-like breast cancer. Breast cancer-related events were significantly lower in the conventional PgR-high Luminal B-like breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show the possibility that PgR status has some influence on the prognosis for Luminal HER2-negative breast cancers. Therefore, attention should be paid to the PgR status as well as Ki-67.