Li G, Zhang D. Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study.
Int J Gen Med 2022;
15:87-101. [PMID:
35018116 PMCID:
PMC8742678 DOI:
10.2147/ijgm.s343850]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2021] [Accepted: 12/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose
Our research aims to study the bone metastatic patterns and prognostic outcomes in elderly breast cancer (BC) and to develop elder-specific nomograms.
Methods
We downloaded the data of BC patients between 2010 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The differences in clinical features and prognosis between young (age < 65) and elderly (age ≥ 65) BC patients were compared. The univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to determine the overall survival (OS)- and cancer-specific survival (CSS)-related variables and establish two nomograms of BC patients with bone metastasis (BCBM). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan–Meier survival curve were selected to evaluate nomograms.
Results
A total of 230,177 BC patients were enrolled in our research, including 142,025 young and 88,152 elderly patients. The prognosis of elderly BCBM patients was significantly worse than young patients. Age, race, breast subtype, tumor size, tumor grade, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, surgery, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic variables for elderly BCBM patients, including OS and CSS. The AUC values at 12, 18, and 24 months were 0.750, 0.751, and 0.739 for OS nomogram and 0.759, 0.762, and 0.752 for CSS nomogram in the training cohort, which were higher than the AUC values of all single independent prognostic variables. The survival curve showed a distinct prognosis between low-, median- and high-risk groups (p < 0.001). Finally, calibration curves and DCA indicated that both nomograms have favorable performance.
Conclusion
Elderly and young patients presented with different bone metastatic frequencies, clinical features, and prognostic outcomes. Two elder-specific nomograms incorporating nine clinical variables were established and validated to be a valuable predictor for elderly BCBM patients.
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