Prediction of long-term cumulative incidences based on short-term parametric model for competing risks: application in early breast cancer

Projected 20- and 30-Year Outcomes for Pediatric Liver Transplant Recipients in the United States

BACKGROUND

Observed long-term outcomes no longer reflect the survival trajectory facing pediatric liver transplant (LT) recipients today. We aimed to use national registry data and parametric models to project 20- and 30-year post-transplant outcomes for recently transplanted pediatric LT recipients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 13,442 first-time pediatric (age <18) LT recipients using 1987 to 2018 Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data. We validated the proposed method (ie, to project long-term patient and graft survival using parametric survival models and short-term data) in 2 historic cohorts (1987-1996 and 1997-2006) and estimated long-term projections among patients transplanted between 2007 and 2018. Projections were stratified by raft type, recipient age, and indication for transplant.

RESULTS

Parsimonious parametric models with Weibull distribution can be applied to post-transplant data and used to project long-term outcomes for pediatric LT recipients beyond observed data. Projected 20-year patient survival for pediatric LT recipients transplanted in 2007 to 2018 was 84.0% (95% confidence interval 81.5-85.8), compared to observed 20-year survival of 72.8% and 63.6% among those transplanted in 1997 to 2006 and 1987 to 1996, respectively. Projected 30-year survival for pediatric LT recipients in 2007 to 2018 was 80.1% (75.2-82.7), compared to projected 30-year survival of 68.6% (66.1-70.9) in the 1997 to 2006 cohort and observed 30-year survival of 57.5% in the 1987 to 1996 cohort. Twenty- and 30-year patient and graft survival varied slightly by recipient age, graft type, and indication for transplant.

CONCLUSIONS

Projected long-term outcomes for recently transplanted pediatric LT recipients are excellent, reflective of substantial improvements in medical care, and informative for physician-patient education and decision making in the current era.

Decreased Overall and Cancer-Specific Mortality with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Treated by Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy: Multivariate Competing Risk Analysis

Background: Value of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is still controversial in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC). Based on competing risk analysis model, we aim at evaluating the efficacy of NACT in decreasing cancer-specific mortality for LA-NPC (except T3-4N0) treated by intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).

Methods: Data on 957 patients with LA-NPC were retrospectively reviewed. The cumulative incidence of cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific (competing) mortality was determined by univariate and multivariate competing risk analysis.

Results: 542 (56.6%) patients received NACT using docetaxel with cisplatin (TP) or fluorouracil with cisplatin (PF) regimens. The median follow-up duration was 57.23 months (range, 1.27-78.53 months). In total, 161/957 (16.8%) patients died, with 140 cancer-specific and 21 non-cancer-specific deaths were observed, respectively. In univariate analysis, the 3- and 5-year cumulative cancer-specific mortality rates for NACT vs. non-NACT group were 8.58% vs. 7.32% and 14.74% vs. 14.52% (P = 0.95), respectively. With regard to competing mortality, the 3- and 5-year cumulative rates (0.93% vs. 1.22% and 1.31% vs. 3.06%; P = 0.196) were comparable between the two groups. Multivariate competing risk analysis established NACT as an independent prognostic factor in decreasing cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.681; 95% CI, 0.488-0.951; P = 0.016) and overall mortality (HR, 0.654; 95% CI, 0.471-0.909; P = 0.011).

Conclusions: NACT may be a powerful approach in decreasing cancer-specific mortality and overall mortality in LA-NPC treated by IMRT, and our findings would strengthen the role of NACT.