Epidemiologic paradigms for progress in ovarian cancer research

Appraising the role of previously reported risk factors in epithelial ovarian cancer risk: A Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Various risk factors have been associated with epithelial ovarian cancer risk in observational epidemiological studies. However, the causal nature of the risk factors reported, and thus their suitability as effective intervention targets, is unclear given the susceptibility of conventional observational designs to residual confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic variants as proxies for risk factors to strengthen causal inference in observational studies. We used MR to evaluate the association of 12 previously reported risk factors (reproductive, anthropometric, clinical, lifestyle, and molecular factors) with risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, invasive epithelial ovarian cancer histotypes, and low malignant potential tumours.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Genetic instruments to proxy 12 risk factors were constructed by identifying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were robustly (P < 5 × 10-8) and independently associated with each respective risk factor in previously reported genome-wide association studies. These risk factors included genetic liability to 3 factors (endometriosis, polycystic ovary syndrome, type 2 diabetes) scaled to reflect a 50% higher odds liability to disease. We obtained summary statistics for the association of these SNPs with risk of overall and histotype-specific invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (22,406 cases; 40,941 controls) and low malignant potential tumours (3,103 cases; 40,941 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). The OCAC dataset comprises 63 genotyping project/case-control sets with participants of European ancestry recruited from 14 countries (US, Australia, Belarus, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Canada, Poland, UK, Spain, Netherlands, and Sweden). SNPs were combined into multi-allelic inverse-variance-weighted fixed or random effects models to generate effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Three complementary sensitivity analyses were performed to examine violations of MR assumptions: MR-Egger regression and weighted median and mode estimators. A Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold was used to establish strong evidence (P < 0.0042) and suggestive evidence (0.0042 < P < 0.05) for associations. In MR analyses, there was strong or suggestive evidence that 2 of the 12 risk factors were associated with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 8 of the 12 were associated with 1 or more invasive epithelial ovarian cancer histotypes. There was strong evidence that genetic liability to endometriosis was associated with an increased risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (odds ratio [OR] per 50% higher odds liability: 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.15; P = 6.94 × 10-7) and suggestive evidence that lifetime smoking exposure was associated with an increased risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (OR per unit increase in smoking score: 1.36, 95% CI 1.04-1.78; P = 0.02). In analyses examining histotypes and low malignant potential tumours, the strongest associations found were between height and clear cell carcinoma (OR per SD increase: 1.36, 95% CI 1.15-1.61; P = 0.0003); age at natural menopause and endometrioid carcinoma (OR per year later onset: 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.16; P = 0.007); and genetic liability to polycystic ovary syndrome and endometrioid carcinoma (OR per 50% higher odds liability: 0.89, 95% CI 0.82-0.96; P = 0.002). There was little evidence for an association of genetic liability to type 2 diabetes, parity, or circulating levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and sex hormone binding globulin with ovarian cancer or its subtypes. The primary limitations of this analysis include the modest statistical power for analyses of risk factors in relation to some less common ovarian cancer histotypes (low grade serous, mucinous, and clear cell carcinomas), the inability to directly examine the association of some ovarian cancer risk factors that did not have robust genetic variants available to serve as proxies (e.g., oral contraceptive use, hormone replacement therapy), and the assumption of linear relationships between risk factors and ovarian cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our comprehensive examination of possible aetiological drivers of ovarian carcinogenesis using germline genetic variants to proxy risk factors supports a role for few of these factors in invasive epithelial ovarian cancer overall and suggests distinct aetiologies across histotypes. The identification of novel risk factors remains an important priority for the prevention of epithelial ovarian cancer.

A random forest classifier predicts recurrence risk in patients with ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer (OC) is associated with a poor prognosis due to difficulties in early detection. The aims of the present study were to construct a recurrence risk prediction model and to reveal important OC genes or pathways. RNA sequencing data was obtained for 307 OC samples, and the corresponding clinical data were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. Additionally, two validation datasets, GSE44104 (20 recurrent and 40 non-recurrent OC samples) and GSE49997 (204 OC samples), were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Differentially expressed genes were screened using the differential expression via distance synthesis algorithm, followed by gene ontology enrichment analysis and weighted gene coexpression network analysis (WGCNA). Furthermore, subnetwork analysis was conducted for the protein-protein interaction (PPI) network using the BioNet package. Finally, a random forest classifier was constructed based on the subnetwork nodes, and its reliability was validated using the GSE44104 and GSE49997 validation datasets. A total of 44 upregulated and 117 downregulated genes were identified in the recurrent samples. Enrichment analysis indicated that cytochrome P450 family 17 subfamily A member 1 (CYP17A1) was associated with ‘positive regulation of steroid hormone biosynthetic processes’. WGCNA identified turquoise and grey modules that were significantly correlated with status and prognosis. A significant PPI subnetwork containing 16 nodes was also identified, including: Transcription factor GATA-4; fibroblast growth factor 9; aromatase; 3β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase/δ5-4-isomerase type 2; corticosteroid 11β-dehydrogenase isozyme 1; CYP17A1; pituitary homeobox 2; left-right determination factor 1; homeobox protein ARX; estrogen receptor β; steroidogenic factor 1; forkhead box protein L2; myocardin; steroidogenic acute regulatory protein mitochondrial; vesicular inhibitory amino acid transporter; and twist-related protein 1. A random forest classifier was constructed using the subnetwork nodes as feature genes, which exhibited a 92% true positive rate when classifying recurrent and non-recurrent OC samples. The classifying efficiency of the random forest classifier was validated using the two other independent datasets. Overall, 44 upregulated and 117 downregulated genes associated with OC recurrence were identified. Furthermore, the 16 subnetwork node genes that were identified may be important molecules in OC recurrence.

Current Gaps in Ovarian Cancer Epidemiology: The Need for New Population-Based Research

With recent ovarian cancer screening studies showing no clinically significant mortality benefit, preventing this disease, identifying high-risk populations, and extending survival remain priorities. However, several challenges are impeding progress in ovarian cancer research. With most studies capturing exposure information from 10 or more years ago, evaluation of how changing patterns of exposures, such as new oral contraceptive formulations and increased intrauterine device use, might influence ovarian cancer risk and survival is difficult. Risk factors for ovarian cancer should be evaluated in the context of tumor histotypes, which have unique molecular features and cells of origin; this is a task that requires large collaborative studies to achieve meaningful sample sizes. Importantly, identification of novel modifiable risk factors, in addition to those currently known to reduce risk (eg, childbearing, tubal ligation, oral contraceptive use), is needed; this is not feasibly implemented at a population level. In this Commentary, we describe important gaps in knowledge and propose new approaches to advance epidemiologic research to improve ovarian cancer prevention and survival, including updated classification of tumors, collection of data on changing and novel exposures, longer follow-up on existing studies, evaluation of diverse populations, development of better risk prediction models, and collaborating prospectively with consortia to develop protocols for new studies that will allow seamless integration for future pooled analyses.