Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Human intervention caused massive destruction of the second largest mangrove forest, Chakaria Sundarbans, Bangladesh

Mangroves provide essential ecosystem services including coastal protection by acting as coastal greenbelts; however, human-driven anthropogenic activities altered their existence and ecosystem functions worldwide. In this study, the successive degradation of the second largest mangrove forest, Chakaria Sundarbans situated at the northern Bay of Bengal part of Bangladesh was assessed using remote sensing approaches. A total of five multi-temporal Landsat satellite imageries were collected and used to observe the land use land cover (LULC) changes over the time periods for the years 1972, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Further, the supervised classification technique with the help of support vector machine (SVM) algorithm in ArcGIS 10.8 was used to process images. Our results revealed a drastic change of Chakaria Sundarbans mangrove forest, that the images of 1972 were comprised of mudflat, waterbody, and mangroves, while the images of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 were classified as waterbody, mangrove, saltpan, and shrimp farm. Most importantly, mangrove forest was the largest covering area a total of 64.2% in 1972, but gradually decreased to 12.7%, 6.4%, 1.9%, and 4.6% for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Interestingly, the rate of mangrove forest area degradation was similar to the net increase of saltpan and shrimp farms. The kappa coefficients of classified images were 0.83, 0.87, 0.80, 0.87, and 0.91 with the overall accuracy of 88.9%, 90%, 85%, 90%, and 93.3% for the years 1972, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. By analyzing normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and transformed difference vegetation index (TDVI), our results validated that green vegetated area was decreased alarmingly with time in this study area. This destruction was mainly related to active human-driven anthropogenic activities, particularly creating embankments for fish farms or salt productions, and cutting for collection of wood as well. Together all, our results provide clear evidence of active anthropogenic stress on coastal ecosystem health by altering mangrove forest to saltpan and shrimp farm saying goodbye to the second largest mangrove forest in one of the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh.

Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India

In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.

Coastal aquaculture in Bangladesh: Sundarbans's role against climate change

The Sundarbans, a natural shield on earth, is one and only place that has many noteworthy environmental and geographical values with breathtaking natural beauties. Near the Sundarbans area, proliferation of aquaculture in this delta contributes appreciably to the national economy. Although aquaculture has become a means of daily livelihood, this sector is nevertheless threatened by a complex of climate change impacts. Cyclones, rising temperatures, rising sea levels, coastal flooding, and erosion make coastal farming difficult. As a panacea, the Sundarbans can play a critical role in preserving coastal aquaculture. As noticed, forests have high potential to recover from unusual consequences of climate change. Practicing safe aquaculture should be opted to refrain from endangering the Sundarbans. This review addressed various climate change impacts on coastal farming and identified the capabilities of the Sundarbans to protect coastal aquaculture from calamitous impacts. Findings show clues for researchers to analyze problems, consequences, and mitigations.

Challenges towards the Sustainability and Enhancement of the Indian Sundarban Mangrove's Blue Carbon Stock

The Sundarban is the world's largest contiguous mangrove forest and stores around 26.62 Tg of blue carbon. The present study reviewed the factors causing a decline in its blue carbon content and poses a challenge in enhancing the carbon stock of this region. This review emphasized that recurrent tropical cyclones, soil erosion, freshwater scarcity, reduced sediment load into the delta, nutrient deficiency, salt-stress-induced changes in species composition, mangrove clearing, and anthropogenic pollution are the fundamental drivers which can potentially reduce the total blue carbon stock of this region. The southern end of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta that shelters this forest has stopped its natural progradation due to inadequate sediment flow from the upper reaches. Growing population pressure from the north of the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve and severe erosion in the southern end accentuated by regional sea-level rise has left minimal options to enhance the blue carbon stock by extending the forest premises. This study collated the scholarly observations of the past decades from this region, indicating a carbon sequestration potential deterioration. By collecting the existing knowledge base, this review indicated the aspects that require immediate attention to stop this ecosystem's draining of the valuable carbon sequestered and, at the same time, enhance the carbon stock, if possible. This review provided some key recommendations that can help sustain the blue carbon stock of the Indian Sundarban. This review stressed that characterizing the spatial variability of blue carbon with more sampling points, catering to the damaged trees after tropical cyclones, estuarine rejuvenation in the upper reaches, maintaining species diversity through afforestation programs, arresting coastal erosion through increasing sediment flow, and combating marine pollution have become urgent needs of the hour. The observations synthesized in this study can be helpful for academics, policy managers, and decision makers willing to uphold the sustainability of the blue carbon stock of this crucial ecosystem.

Mapping mangrove sustainability in the face of sea level rise and land use: A case study on Leizhou Peninsula, China

Habitat loss and degradation of mangrove forests can be caused by both sea level rise (SLR) and unsustainable land practices. Current long-term change projections are often based on changes to mangrove extent; however, this may overlook fragmentation and the associated habitat resilience decline and therefore fail to adequately reveal the risks to mangrove habitats. A mangrove sustainability index (MSI) was proposed in this study to assess the impact of SLR and land use on mangrove habitats. The index consists of four components: habitat area change, habitat quality, landscape pattern, and protection ratio. Ecological models and landscape models were combined to calculate the MSI. Considering the SLR under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and land use strategies, four scenarios were set with prediction periods of base year (2020) to 2050 and 2100. The Leizhou Peninsula, China was used as the case study. The results showed that dual stressors would reduce the extent of mangroves by 16.6%-56.2%. Habitat quality was sensitive to land use change but was not affected by SLR. Landscape pattern and protection ratio were influenced by SLR but less effected by land use. In all scenarios, mangroves tended to migrate out of the protected areas, with protection ratio decreasing from 37% to 16.9%-29.9%. Newly expanding habitats may suffer from patch fragmentation and low connectivity. Unsustainable mangrove distribution sites on Leizhou Peninsula were identified as hotspots for management. Projections under different scenarios showed that some unsustainable sites could be reversed to sustainable sites through improvements in land use policies. The proposed approach could provide essential tools for the formulation of mangrove conservation and restoration strategies adapted to climate change.

Favourable climatic niche in low elevations outside the flood zone characterises the distribution pattern of venomous snakes in Bangladesh

Snakes are sensitive to both environmental and climate gradients. To design conservation plans, a scientific understanding of snake habitats in light of environmental and climatic variables is an essential prerequisite. For venomous snakes, denoting favourable habitats should also be relevant for snakebite management. We have considered 18 spatial variables to portray the range of terrestrial venomous snake distribution in Bangladesh. Our results indicate that the distribution of 29 studied venomous snakes in this country is primarily driven by climatic and environmental variables. We found that especially low elevation and flood risk constrain the distribution of those terrestrial snakes, i.e. regular floods in central Bangladesh push venomous snakes towards the edges of the country. Moreover, none of these species occupies the whole of its anticipated climatically favourable area. Projections into the future indicated that 11 studied species, Amphiesma platyceps, Boiga siamensis, Chrysopelea ornata, Pseudoxenodon macrops, Rhabdophis himalayanus, Rhabdophis subminiatus, Bungarus lividus, Ophiophagus hannah, Daboia russelii, Ovophis monticola and Trimeresurus popeiorum will lose their entire climatically suitable area within the country. Therefore, we suggest establishing more protected areas in the hilly ecosystems in the eastern part and in the mangrove forests in the south-western corner of Bangladesh to mitigate future extinction risks, such as climate change, sea-level rise and increase in flood severity. Conserving village forests and croplands, which are subject to rapid change, will also need to be addressed equally, as these are inhabited by almost one-third of the studied species. The occurrence of the cobras and kraits in village forests and cropland dominant habitats demands more attention to minimise snakebite related mortality and morbidity.

Biogeochemistry of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the estuarine rivers of Bangladesh-Sundarbans under different anthropogenic influences

The Bangladesh-Sundarbans is the Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) articulated by UNESCO, is under different anthropogenic stress. The present study focused on the status of estuarine biogeochemistry of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) of the Bangladesh-Sundarbans using different optical methods. Four fluorophores: Peak A (230-265/408-488 nm), Peak M (290/414 nm), Peak C (365/488 nm), and Peak W (320/410 nm), and three fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) components (two humic-like, one detergent-like) were identified in the Sundarban mangrove Rivers by Excitation-Emission Matrix (EEM) and Parallel Factor (PARAFAC) analyses. Among the three components, the terrestrial-derived humic-like Component had a high intensity in five samples among six in the Bangladesh-Sundarbans. The total fluorescent intensity and calculated dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration were maximum in Harbaria and minimum in Kotka and Dublar char, respectively. Synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS) identified protein-like component besides humic-like DOM. The optical indices described that natural fDOM components were from terrestrial sources, were matured, and autochthonous fDOM production was low. The DOM components were relatively lower in molecular size and aromaticity in Harbaria. However, water samples in Harbaria contained organometallic compounds that had much absorbance at 254 nm wavelength. DOM components had low energy and more π-conjugated molecules in structure in the Dublar char and Kotka. Components in Dublar char had comparatively higher molecular size and weight than other sampling stations. The Harbaria and Mongla port contained more hydrophobic and less polar substances than other stations. This study will firmly add diversified notions to future research regarding mangrove forest.

Valuation of long-term coastal wetland changes in the U.S

Sea level rise threatens the coastal landscape, including coastal wetlands, which provide a unique natural habitat to a variety of animal and plant species as well as an array of ecosystem service flows of value to people. The economic valuation of potential changes in coastal wetland areas, while challenging, allows for a comparison with other types of economic impacts from climate change and enhances our understanding of the potential benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. In this study, we estimate an ensemble of future changes in coastal wetland areas considering both sea level rise, future greenhouse gas emissions, and accretion rate uncertainty, using outputs from the National Ocean and Atmospheric (NOAA) marsh migration model. By the end of the century, total wetland losses range from 2.0 to 10.7 million acres across sea level rise scenarios. For Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, cummulative net wetland area loss is 1.8 and 2.4 million acres by 2050 and 3.5 and 5.2 million acres by 2100. We then estimate economic impacts with two distinct approaches: restoration cost and ecosystem services. The ecosystem services considered are limited by what can be reliably quantified-namely, coastal property protection from coastal flooding and carbon sequestration, the latter using a social cost of carbon approach. By the end of the century, annual restoration costs reach $1.5 and $3.1 billion for RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The lost ecosystem services, together, reach annual economic impacts that are much higher, reaching $2.5 billion for RCP4.5 and $6.1 billion for RCP8.5.

Dynamics and Causes of Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Region of Southwest Bangladesh at Global, Regional, and Local Levels

Global greenhouse gas emissions have caused sea level rise (SLR) at a global and local level since the industrial revolution, mainly through thermal expansion and ice melting. Projections indicate that the acceleration of SLR will increase in the near future. This will affect coastal and deltaic populations worldwide, such as in Bangladesh, where almost half of the population resides in regions lower than 5 m above sea level. This study analyzed three coastal tidal gauges and five deltaic gauge stations, which showed increases in SLR at greater rates than the regional and global averages. This research also used satellite altimetry data to analyze regional and global SLR averages in the recent past and the 21st century. There is a trend towards increasing sea level based on results from three tide gauge stations: Char Changa with 7.6 mm/yr, Hiron Point at 3.1 mm/yr from 1993 to 2019, and 14.5 mm/yr at Cox’s Bazar from 1993 to 2011. Based on the linear trend from these time frames, it is projected that SLR in Char Changa will increase by 228 mm cm from 2020 to 2050, and by 608 mm by 2100, at Hiron Point by 93mm in 2050 and 248 mm by 2100, and at Cox’s Bazar by almost 435.7 mm by 2050, and more than 1162 mm by 2100. Based on an average from satellite altimeters, assuming a linear increase in SLR, the Bay of Bengal shows an increase of 0.4 mm compared to the global trend. Other river delta stations in the study area also show increasing SLR, specifically, at Kalaroa, Benarpota, Kaikhali, Tala Magura, and Elarchari. Kalaroa and Benarpota show the highest, with SLR of >40 mm/yr. It is also observed that increasing SLR trends are far higher than coastal tide gauges, indicating that physical processes in the delta region are affecting SLR, further contributing to either an increase in water volume/SLR or activating land subsidence. This is partly due to the subsidence of the delta as a result of natural and anthropomorphic effects, as well as an increase in Himalayan glacier melting due to global warming. This indicates that Bangladesh coastal areas will soon experience a far greater SLR than the rest of the Bay of Bengal or other global coastal areas.

Successive Cyclones Attacked the World’s Largest Mangrove Forest Located in the Bay of Bengal under Pandemic

Despite the global focus on the COVID-19 pandemic, the promise of impact to tropical coastlines and stochasticity of destruction caused by tropical cyclones remains unaltered, forcing human societies to adapt to new unadaptable scenarios. Super Cyclone Amphan’s landfall—the third cyclone of the season within the world’s largest mangrove forest—brought a new uncertainty to this undeveloped region of South Asia. How do vulnerable people deal with multiple disasters that limit necessary humanitarian response while still maintaining the natural environmental integrity of a system harboring critical wildlife populations and protecting people from further disaster? We explored this reality for the Sundarbans region using a remote sensing technique and found that the western part of Sundarbans mangroves was severely damaged by Amphan, suggesting that rapid remote sensing techniques can help direct resources, and recognize the eventuality that response will be a best effort for now. If 2020 is a window, multiple disaster management scenarios may become more common in the future. Yet, society’s obligation for maintaining environmental integrity remains unchanged.

Geochemical Behavior of Sedimentary Phosphorus Species in Northernmost Artificial Mangroves in China

Mangroves are typically found in tropical coastal areas, and these ecosystems face deterioration and loss due to threats from climate and human factors. In this study, sediment cores were collected from human-planted mangroves in sub-tropical Ximen Island, China, and were determined for sedimentary phosphorus (P) species. The objective was to investigate the ability of mangroves planted in a zone bordering their temperature limit to preserve and regulate P. Our results showed that bioavailable P (BAP), which includes exchangeable-P (Ex-P), iron-bound P (Fe-P), and organic P (OP), accounted for approximately 64% of total P (TP). Apatite P (Ca-P), which accounted for 24% of TP, most likely originated from aquaculture activities surrounding the island. The vertical distribution of sedimentary P species along the sediment cores showed a rather constant trend along the salt marsh stand but considerable fluctuations for the mangroves and bare mudflat. These results indicate that mangroves accumulated P when there was a high P discharge event, and that this P was eventually released during organic matter decomposition and contributed to Ca-P formation. Nevertheless, old and young mangroves accumulated higher sedimentary P species, OP, and BAP compared to the salt marsh stand and bare mudflat areas. This study showed the potential of mangroves planted outside their suitable climate zone to preserve and regulate P.

Changes in Mangrove Carbon Stocks and Exposure to Sea Level Rise (SLR) under Future Climate Scenarios

Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by a variety of anthropogenic changes, including climate change. The main aim of this research is to quantify the spatial variation in the different mangrove carbon stocks, aboveground carbon (AGC), belowground carbon (BGC), and soil carbon (SOC), under future climate scenarios. Additionally, we sought to identify the magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) exposure with the view of identifying the mangrove regions most likely to face elevated inundation. Different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) ranging from the most optimistic (RCP 2.6) to medium emissions (RCP 4.5) and the most pessimistic (RCP 8.5) were considered for 2070. We used the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW), a biogeographical classification of coastal ecosystems, to quantify the variation in future carbon stocks at a regional scale and identify areas of potential carbon stock losses and gains. Here, we showed that the mangroves of Central and Western Indo-Pacific islands (Andamans, Papua New Guinea, and Vanuatu), the west African coast, and northeastern South America will be the worst hit and are projected to affect all three carbon stocks under all future scenarios. For instance, the Andaman ecoregion is projected to have an 11–25% decline in SOC accumulation, while the Western Indo-Pacific realm is projected to undergo the sharpest declines, ranging from 10% to 12% under all three scenarios. Examples of these areas are those in Amazonia and the eastern part of South Asia (such as in the Northern Bay of Bengal ecoregion). Based on these findings, conservation management of mangroves can be conducted.

The Development of a Framework for the Integrated Assessment of SDG Trade-Offs in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their corresponding targets are significantly interconnected, with many interactions, synergies, and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. This paper proposes a framework for the Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system in order to analyze such SDG interactions. We focused on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), India, within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. It is densely populated with 4.4 million people (2011), high levels of poverty, and a strong dependence on rural livelihoods. It is adjacent to the growing megacity of Kolkata. The area also includes the Indian portion of the world’s largest mangrove forest––the Sundarbans––hosting the iconic Bengal Tiger. Like all deltaic systems, this area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating across scales. The IAM framework is designed to investigate socio-environmental change under a range of explorative and/or normative scenarios and explore associated policy impacts, considering a broad range of subthematic SDG indicators. The following elements were explicitly considered: (1) agriculture; (2) aquaculture; (3) mangroves; (4) fisheries; and (5) multidimensional poverty. Key questions that can be addressed include the implications of changing monsoon patterns, trade-offs between agriculture and aquaculture, or the future of the Sundarbans’ mangroves under sea-level rise and different management strategies. The novel, high-resolution analysis of SDG interactions allowed by the IAM will provide stakeholders and policy makers the opportunity to prioritize and explore the SDG targets that are most relevant to the SBR and provide a foundation for further integrated analysis.

Applying Multi-Temporal Landsat Satellite Data and Markov-Cellular Automata to Predict Forest Cover Change and Forest Degradation of Sundarban Reserve Forest, Bangladesh

Overdependence on and exploitation of forest resources have significantly transformed the natural reserve forest of Sundarban, which shares the largest mangrove territory in the world, into a great degradation status. By observing these, a most pressing concern is how much degradation occurred in the past, and what will be the scenarios in the future if they continue? To confirm the degradation status in the past decades and reveal the future trend, we took Sundarban Reserve Forest (SRF) as an example, and used satellite Earth observation historical Landsat imagery between 1989 and 2019 as existing data and primary data. Moreover, a geographic information system model was considered to estimate land cover (LC) change and spatial health quality of the SRF from 1989 to 2029 based on the large and small tree categories. The maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) technique was employed to classify the historical images with five different LC types, which were further considered for future projection (2029) including trends based on 2019 simulation results from 1989 and 2019 LC maps using the Markov-cellular automata model. The overall accuracy achieved was 82.30%~90.49% with a kappa value of 0.75~0.87. The historical result showed forest degradation in the past (1989–2019) of 4773.02 ha yr−1, considered as great forest degradation (GFD) and showed a declining status when moving with the projection (2019–2029) of 1508.53 ha yr−1 and overall there was a decline of 3956.90 ha yr−1 in the 1989–2029 time period. Moreover, the study also observed that dense forest was gradually degraded (good to bad) but, conversely, light forest was enhanced, which will continue in the future even to 2029 if no effective management is carried out. Therefore, by observing the GFD, through spatial forest health quality and forest degradation mapping and assessment, the study suggests a few policies that require the immediate attention of forest policy-makers to implement them immediately and ensure sustainable development in the SRF.

1980s-2010s: The world's largest mangrove ecosystem is becoming homogeneous

Knowledge gaps in spatiotemporal changes in mangrove diversity and composition have obstructed mangrove conservation programs across the tropics, but particularly in the Sundarbans (10,017 km2), the world's largest remaining natural mangrove ecosystem. Using mangrove tree data collected from Earth's largest permanent sample plot network at four historical time points (1986, 1994, 1999 and 2014), this study establishes spatially explicit baseline biodiversity information for the Sundarbans. We determined the spatial and temporal differences in alpha, beta, and gamma diversity in three ecological zones (hypo-, meso-, and hypersaline) and also uncovered changes in the mangroves' overall geographic range and abundances therein. Spatially, the hyposaline mangrove communities were the most diverse and heterogeneous in species composition while the hypersaline communities were the least diverse and most homogeneous at all historical time points. Since 1986, we detect an increasing trend of compositional homogeneity (between-site similarity in species composition) and a significant spatial contraction of distinct and diverse areas over the entire ecosystem. Temporally, the western and southern hypersaline communities have undergone radical shifts in species composition due to population increase and range expansion of the native invasive species Ceriops decandra and local extinction or range contraction of specialists including the globally endangered Heritiera fomes. The surviving biodiversity hotspots are distributed outside the legislated protected area network. In addition to suggesting the immediate coverage of these hotspots under protected area management, our novel biodiversity insights and spatial maps can form the basis for spatial conservation planning, biodiversity monitoring and protection initiatives for the Sundarbans.

Dual wave farms and coastline dynamics: The role of inter-device spacing

In dual wave farms, i.e., arrays of wave energy converters (WECs) with a dual function - generation of renewable power and mitigation of coastal erosion - the spacing between the WECs is a fundamental design parameter. The present research has the objective of establishing how this parameter affects the shoreline evolution behind the array and, on this basis, to propose and apply a method to determine the optimum spacing for coastal protection. The method is demonstrated on a beach subjected to severe erosion. Five case studies are considered: four with different inter-WEC spacings, and one without the wave farm (baseline). A spectral wave propagation model is applied to analyse the variations in significant wave height behind the WEC array. Longshore sediment transport rates are calculated, and a shoreline model is applied. We find that in all the case studies the dry beach area is greater than in the baseline (no farm) case study, which proves the capacity of the dual WEC array to mitigate the erosive trends of the system. Importantly, we obtain that the inter-WEC spacing plays a fundamental role in the evolution of the shoreline and, consequently, in the effectiveness of the WEC array for coastal protection. The case studies with intermediate spacings yield the best performance in terms of dry beach area. More generally, the benefits of dual wave farms in terms of protection of coastal properties and infrastructure, and the ensuing savings in conventional coastal defence measures (coastal structures, beach nourishment, etc.) contribute to the development of wave energy by enhancing its economic viability. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to optimize the design of dual wave farms elsewhere.

Wave farm effects on the coast: The alongshore position

For wave energy to become a fully-fledged renewable and thus contribute to the much-needed decarbonisation of the energy mix, the effects of wave farms (arrays of wave energy converters) on coastal systems must be addressed. The objective of this work is to investigate the effects of wave farms on the longshore sediment transport and shoreline evolution of a gravel-dominated beach and, in particular, its sensitivity to the longshore position of the farm based on eight scenarios. Nearshore wave propagation patterns are computed by means of a spectral wave propagation model (SWAN), variations in sediment transport rates induced by the farm are calculated, and a one-line model is applied to determine the shoreline position and dry beach area. The significant wave height at breaking is reduced in the lee of the wave farm, dampening sediment transport. We find that changes in the dry beach area induced by the wave farm are highly sensitive to its alongshore position, and may result in: (i) erosion relative to the baseline scenario (without wave farm) in three of the eight scenarios, (ii) accretion in three other scenarios, and (iii) negligible effects in the remaining two. These results prove that the alongshore position of the wave farm controls the response of the beach to the extent that it may shift from accretionary to erosionary, and provide evidence of its effectiveness in countering erosion if appropriately positioned. This effectiveness opens up the possibility of using wave farms not only to generate carbon-free energy but also to manage coastal erosion, thus strengthening the case for the development of wave energy.

An index for discrimination of mangroves from non-mangroves using LANDSAT 8 OLI imagery

Over the last few decades several vegetation indices were used to map Mangrove forest using satellite images. Difficulty still persists in discrimination of mangroves from non-mangrove vegetation, especially in areas where mangrove species are mixed with other vegetation types. In the present study we have attempted to develop an improved index, which utilizes the information from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) of Bhitarkanika mangrove forest of Odisha, India. These indices are negatively correlated (r = -0.988; p < 0.01). Further, the NDWI values were subtracted from the NDVI values at the pixel level. As the outputs are negatively related, subtraction increases the upper and lower range of the overall output, also increasing the distinct values of two classes with near-similar spectral signatures. Same algorithm was applied on mangroves of Sundarbans (r = -0.987) and Andaman (r = -0.989). A comparison between four established indices [NDVI, NDWI, Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Simple Ratio (SR)] and the newly developed index namely Combined Mangrove Recognition Index (CMRI) were performed. Accuracy assessment using Kappa statistics, revealing that CMRI produces better accuracy (73.43%) compared to other indices, followed by NDVI (56.29%) and SR (48.79%).

Protection of gravel-dominated coasts through wave farms: Layout and shoreline evolution

The impacts of wave farms (arrays of wave energy converters, or WECs) on the nearshore must be fully understood for wave technology to develop and thus contribute to a sustainable, carbon-free energy mix in the near future. The objective of this work is to investigate the role played by the farm layout on the wave propagation patterns leewards and the implications for longshore sediment transport (LST) and shoreline evolution on a gravel-dominated deltaic coast. Changes in wave propagation in four scenarios, corresponding to as many wave farm layouts, are computed by means of a spectral numerical model (Delft3D-WAVE) under (i) low-energy and storm conditions, and (ii) westerly and easterly waves - the two prevailing wave directions. On this basis, sediment transport rates are computed and changes in the shoreline position assessed using a one-line model. To quantify the impact of the wave farm on the nearshore wave conditions, sediment transport and shoreline, we define three ad hoc indicators: the non-dimensional wave height reduction, the non-dimensional LST rate reduction and the non-dimensional shoreline advance. Significant wave heights decrease in the lee of the wave farm, with the consequent reduction in LST rates. As a result, the dry beach area increases in every scenario under both westerly and easterly waves. We find that case studies with the WECs arranged on fewer rows but covering a greater stretch of coastline provide better coastal protection. These results confirm that wave farms can be used not only to generate carbon-free energy but also to protect gravel-dominated coasts.

Causes of the different behaviour of the shoreline on beaches with similar characteristics. Study case of the San Juan and Guardamar del Segura beaches, Spain

Storms can alter the beach shape, relocating large volumes of sediments and generating drastic changes in the coastline. In the last 60years, beaches shoreline behaviour has been different even though the energy of the waves was similar. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the factors that affect the sandy coasts for better future management. In this research, two beaches, with different erosion rate, located in the southeast of Spain (separated by only 40km of distance) have been studied. The beaches: i) have similar orientations, ii) are open to waves with similar sand lengths of 9.8km and 6.6km, and iii) have similar median sediment size (D₅₀). For its study, shoreline evolution has been analysed from 1956 to 2017. From the results obtained, it can be seen that: i) Between 1992 and 2017, San Juan just lost 3% of its surface, while in the previous period (1956-1990) it was 50%, and ii) Guardamar surface lost in 1992-2017 was 18%, and in the previous period it was 14%. For the analysis of the agents involved in both beaches, cross-shore profiles (volume), marine climate, biocenosis and sedimentology studies were carried out. The results showed that the energy on both beaches was very similar. The biocenosis had not changed and, however, the morphology of Guardamar seabed had increased to 1m deep in some places, which had caused part of the beach berm erosion. Furthermore, important differences were found from the sedimentological study, concluding that the content of calcites and the degree of homogeneity of the particles are the real factors that caused these two beaches to behave differently against erosion.