A quantitative genetic analysis of life-history traits and lifetime reproductive success in reintroduced Chinook salmon

Assortative mating for reproductive timing affects population recruitment and resilience in a quantitative genetic model

Quantitative models that simulate the inheritance and evolution of fitness-linked traits offer a method for predicting how environmental or anthropogenic perturbations can affect the dynamics of wild populations. Random mating between individuals within populations is a key assumption of many such models used in conservation and management to predict the impacts of proposed management or conservation actions. However, recent evidence suggests that non-random mating may be underestimated in wild populations and play an important role in diversity-stability relationships. Here we introduce a novel individual-based quantitative genetic model that incorporates assortative mating for reproductive timing, a defining attribute of many aggregate breeding species. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by simulating a generalized salmonid lifecycle, varying input parameters, and comparing model outputs to theoretical expectations for several eco-evolutionary, population dynamic scenarios. Simulations with assortative mating systems resulted in more resilient and productive populations than those that were randomly mating. In accordance with established ecological and evolutionary theory, we also found that decreasing the magnitude of trait correlations, environmental variability, and strength of selection each had a positive effect on population growth. Our model is constructed in a modular framework so that future components can be easily added to address pressing issues such as the effects of supportive breeding, variable age structure, differential selection by sex or age, and fishery interactions on population growth and resilience. With code published in a public Github repository, model outputs may easily be tailored to specific study systems by parameterizing with empirically generated values from long-term ecological monitoring programs.

An evaluation of the potential factors affecting lifetime reproductive success in salmonids

Lifetime reproductive success (LRS), the number of offspring produced over an organism's lifetime, is a fundamental component of Darwinian fitness. For taxa such as salmonids with multiple species of conservation concern, understanding the factors affecting LRS is critical for the development and implementation of successful conservation management practices. Here, we reviewed the published literature to synthesize factors affecting LRS in salmonids including significant effects of hatchery rearing, life history, and phenotypic variation, and behavioral and spawning interactions. Additionally, we found that LRS is affected by competitive behavior on the spawning grounds, genetic compatibility, local adaptation, and hybridization. Our review of existing literature revealed limitations of LRS studies, and we emphasize the following areas that warrant further attention in future research: (1) expanding the range of studies assessing LRS across different life-history strategies, specifically accounting for distinct reproductive and migratory phenotypes; (2) broadening the variety of species represented in salmonid fitness studies; (3) constructing multigenerational pedigrees to track long-term fitness effects; (4) conducting LRS studies that investigate the effects of aquatic stressors, such as anthropogenic effects, pathogens, environmental factors in both freshwater and marine environments, and assessing overall body condition, and (5) utilizing appropriate statistical approaches to determine the factors that explain the greatest variation in fitness and providing information regarding biological significance, power limitations, and potential sources of error in salmonid parentage studies. Overall, this review emphasizes that studies of LRS have profoundly advanced scientific understanding of salmonid fitness, but substantial challenges need to be overcome to assist with long-term recovery of these keystone species in aquatic ecosystems.