Fitness costs associated with ancestry to isolated populations of an endangered species

The difficulty of detecting inbreeding depression and its effect on conservation decisions

Statistical inferences about inbreeding depression are often derived from analyses with low power and a high risk of failing to detect inbreeding depression. That risk is widely appreciated by scientists familiar with the relevant statistical and genetical theory, but may be overlooked and underappreciated by decision-makers. Consequently, there is value in demonstrating this risk using a real example. We use data from the wolf population on Isle Royale to demonstrate the difficulty of making reliable statistical inferences about inbreeding depression. This wolf population is known-by other methods-to have gone effectively extinct due to deleterious genetic processes associated with inbreeding. Beyond that demonstration, we use two case-studies-wolves on Isle Royale and vaquita (porpoises) from the Gulf of California, Mexico-to show how statistical inferences about inbreeding depression can affect conservation decisions. According to most decision theory, decisions depend importantly on: 1) probabilities that certain states exist (e.g. inbreeding depression is present) and 2) the utility assigned to various outcomes (e.g. the value of acting to mitigate inbreeding when it is present). The probabilities are provided by statistical inference; whereas utilities are almost entirely determined by normative values and judgements. Our analysis suggests that decisions to mitigate inbreeding depression are often driven more by utilities (normative values) than probabilities (statistical inferences). As such, advocates for mitigating inbreeding depression will benefit from better communicating to decision-makers the value of populations persisting and the extent to which decisions should depend on normative values.

Planning and implementing genetic rescue of an endangered freshwater fish population in a regulated river, where low flow reduces breeding opportunities and may trigger inbreeding depression

Augmenting depleted genetic diversity can improve the fitness and evolutionary potential of wildlife populations, but developing effective management approaches requires genetically monitored test cases. One such case is the small, isolated and inbred Cotter River population of an endangered Australian freshwater fish, the Macquarie perch Macquaria australasica, which over 3 years (2017-2019) received 71 translocated migrants from a closely related, genetically more diverse population. We used genetic monitoring to test whether immigrants bred, interbred with local fish and augmented population genetic diversity. We also investigated whether levels of river flow affected recruitment, inbreeding depression and juvenile dispersal. Fish length was used to estimate the age, birth year cohort and growth of 524 individuals born between 2016 and 2020 under variable flow conditions. DArT genome-wide genotypes were used to assess individual ancestry, heterozygosity, short-term effective population size and identify parent-offspring and full-sibling families. Of 442 individuals born after translocations commenced, only two (0.45%) were of mixed ancestry; these were half-sibs with one translocated parent in common. Numbers of breeders and genetic diversity for five birth year cohorts of the Cotter River fish were low, especially in low-flow years. Additionally, individuals born in the year of lowest flow evidently suffered from inbreeding depression for juvenile growth. The year of highest flow was associated with the largest number of breeders, lowest inbreeding in the offspring and greatest juvenile dispersal distances. Genetic diversity decreased in the upstream direction, flagging restricted access of breeders to the most upstream breeding sites, exacerbated by low river flow. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of translocations could be increased by focussing on upstream sites and moving more individuals per year; using riverine sources should be considered. Our results indicate that river flow sufficient to facilitate fish movement through the system would increase the number of breeders, promote individuals' growth, reduce inbreeding depression and promote genetic rescue.

The far-reaching effects of genetic process in a keystone predator species, grey wolves

Although detrimental genetic processes are known to adversely affect the viability of populations, little is known about how detrimental genetic processes in a keystone species can affect the functioning of ecosystems. Here, we assessed how changes in the genetic characteristics of a keystone predator, grey wolves, affected the ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park over two decades. Changes in the genetic characteristic of the wolf population associated with a genetic rescue event, followed by high levels of inbreeding, led to a rise and then fall in predation rates on moose, the primary prey of wolves and dominant mammalian herbivore in this system. Those changes in predation rate led to large fluctuations in moose abundance, which in turn affected browse rates on balsam fir, the dominant forage for moose during winter and an important boreal forest species. Thus, forest dynamics can be traced back to changes in the genetic characteristics of a predator population.

A chromosome-length reference genome for the endangered Pacific pocket mouse reveals recent inbreeding in a historically large population

High-quality reference genomes are fundamental tools for understanding population history, and can provide estimates of genetic and demographic parameters relevant to the conservation of biodiversity. The federally endangered Pacific pocket mouse (PPM), which persists in three small, isolated populations in southern California, is a promising model for studying how demographic history shapes genetic diversity, and how diversity in turn may influence extinction risk. To facilitate these studies in PPM, we combined PacBio HiFi long reads with Omni-C and Hi-C data to generate a de novo genome assembly, and annotated the genome using RNAseq. The assembly comprised 28 chromosome-length scaffolds (N50 = 72.6 MB) and the complete mitochondrial genome, and included a long heterochromatic region on chromosome 18 not represented in the previously available short-read assembly. Heterozygosity was highly variable across the genome of the reference individual, with 18% of windows falling in runs of homozygosity (ROH) >1 MB, and nearly 9% in tracts spanning >5 MB. Yet outside of ROH, heterozygosity was relatively high (0.0027), and historical N_e estimates were large. These patterns of genetic variation suggest recent inbreeding in a formerly large population. Currently the most contiguous assembly for a heteromyid rodent, this reference genome provides insight into the past and recent demographic history of the population, and will be a critical tool for management and future studies of outbreeding depression, inbreeding depression, and genetic load.

Contrasting genetic trajectories of endangered and expanding red fox populations in the western U.S

As anthropogenic disturbances continue to drive habitat loss and range contractions, the maintenance of evolutionary processes will increasingly require targeting measures to the population level, even for common and widespread species. Doing so requires detailed knowledge of population genetic structure, both to identify populations of conservation need and value, as well as to evaluate suitability of potential donor populations. We conducted a range-wide analysis of the genetic structure of red foxes in the contiguous western U.S., including a federally endangered distinct population segment of the Sierra Nevada subspecies, with the objectives of contextualizing field observations of relative scarcity in the Pacific mountains and increasing abundance in the cold desert basins of the Intermountain West. Using 31 autosomal microsatellites, along with mitochondrial and Y-chromosome markers, we found that populations of the Pacific mountains were isolated from one another and genetically depauperate (e.g., estimated Ne range = 3–9). In contrast, red foxes in the Intermountain regions showed relatively high connectivity and genetic diversity. Although most Intermountain red foxes carried indigenous western matrilines (78%) and patrilines (85%), the presence of nonindigenous haplotypes at lower elevations indicated admixture with fur-farm foxes and possibly expanding midcontinent populations as well. Our findings suggest that some Pacific mountain populations could likely benefit from increased connectivity (i.e., genetic rescue) but that nonnative admixture makes expanding populations in the Intermountain basins a non-ideal source. However, our results also suggest contact between Pacific mountain and Intermountain basin populations is likely to increase regardless, warranting consideration of risks and benefits of proactive measures to mitigate against unwanted effects of Intermountain gene flow.

Reviewing the consequences of genetic purging on the success of rescue programs

Genetic rescue is increasingly considered a promising and underused conservation strategy to reduce inbreeding depression and restore genetic diversity in endangered populations, but the empirical evidence supporting its application is limited to a few generations. Here we discuss on the light of theory the role of inbreeding depression arising from partially recessive deleterious mutations and of genetic purging as main determinants of the medium to long-term success of rescue programs. This role depends on two main predictions: (1) The inbreeding load hidden in populations with a long stable demography increases with the effective population size; and (2) After a population shrinks, purging tends to remove its (partially) recessive deleterious alleles, a process that is slower but more efficient for large populations than for small ones. We also carry out computer simulations to investigate the impact of genetic purging on the medium to long term success of genetic rescue programs. For some scenarios, it is found that hybrid vigor followed by purging will lead to sustained successful rescue. However, there may be specific situations where the recipient population is so small that it cannot purge the inbreeding load introduced by migrants, which would lead to increased fitness inbreeding depression and extinction risk in the medium to long term. In such cases, the risk is expected to be higher if migrants came from a large non-purged population with high inbreeding load, particularly after the accumulation of the stochastic effects ascribed to repeated occasional migration events. Therefore, under the specific deleterious recessive mutation model considered, we conclude that additional caution should be taken in rescue programs. Unless the endangered population harbors some distinctive genetic singularity whose conservation is a main concern, restoration by continuous stable gene flow should be considered, whenever feasible, as it reduces the extinction risk compared to repeated occasional migration and can also allow recolonization events.

Female Southern White Rhinoceros Can Select Mates to Avoid Inbreeding

Current management models for many endangered species focus primarily on demographic recovery, often ignoring their intrinsic ecological requirements. Across the protected area network of southern Africa, most southern white rhinoceros are managed in populations of less than 50 individuals, experiencing restricted dispersal opportunities, and limited breeding male numbers due to their exclusive home range requirements. In the absence of information on the breeding structure of these populations, poor management decisions may require females to either forego a breeding opportunity or select to inbreed with close relatives. Here, we use a combination of social pedigree data together with genetic analyses to reconstruct the parentage of all 28 offspring produced in a 5-year period in a managed free-ranging southern white rhinoceros population. During this period, all breeding females (founders and first-generation daughters) had access to both a founder male (father to most of the daughters) and two recently introduced inexperienced males. We report that while founder females were more likely to breed with the founder male, their daughters, in contrast, were more likely to breed with the introduced males, thus avoiding inbreeding. However, we also found evidence of father-daughter inbreeding in this population, and contend that in the absence of choice, rather than forego a breeding opportunity, female white rhinoceros will inbreed with their fathers. We argue that to effectively conserve the southern white rhinoceros, managers need to understand the breeding structure of these small populations, particularly in terms of parentage and kinship.

Morphological keys for identifying long-tailed gorals (Naemorhedus caudatus) and population composition in the Osaek Region of South Korea

The objectives of this study were to select morphological keys for the identification of individual endangered long-tailed gorals through analysis of photographic data and to use these morphological keys to determine the number and population composition of gorals living in the Osaek Region of Seoraksan National Park. Amongst 8149 photos taken using 73 cameras in the Osaek Region, 2057 photos of faces and horns were analysed. The presence and absence of horns, shape of the horns, proportion of the ring to the length of the horn and facial colour pattern were selected as morphological keys to identify individual gorals. To verify the accuracy of the morphological keys for identifying gorals, a blind test was performed on gorals residing in the sanctuary of the Yanggu Goral Restoration Center. The test revealed that the population and age of gorals were discerned correctly by the morphological keys, but there was a 12.5% error in discriminating between sexes in gorals aged over 10 years. Fifty-six gorals were identified from 2057 pictures, based on the morphological keys and methods developed in this study. The population of 56 individuals consisted of 43 individuals aged over 2 years (subadult or adult) and 13 offspring aged less than 2 years, with a ratio of 3.3:1. Of the total 56 individuals, 45% were adults aged 10 years or older, 18% were adults aged 3–10 years, 7% were subadults aged 2–3 years, 23% were offspring aged less than 2 years and 7% were individuals aged 2 years or older, whose age and sex could not be confirmed. The sex ratio of males to females was 1.17:1, with a corrected sex ratio of 1:1 considering the 12.5% error rate for gorals aged over 10 years, amongst the 39 gorals aged over 2 years.