Sales of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) and Cigarette Sales in the USA: A Trend Break Analysis

Increased e-cigarette use prevalence is associated with decreased smoking prevalence among US adults

BACKGROUND

If US adults who smoke cigarettes are switching to e-cigarettes, the effect may be observable at the population level: smoking prevalence should decline as e-cigarette prevalence increases, especially in sub-populations with highest e-cigarette use. This study aimed to assess such effects in recent nationally-representative data.

METHODS

We updated a prior analysis with the latest available National Health Interview Survey data through 2022. Data were cross-sectional estimates of the yearly prevalence of smoking and e-cigarette use, respectively, among US adults and among specific age, race/ethnicity, and sex subpopulations. Non-linear models were fitted to observed smoking prevalence in the pre-e-cigarette era, with a range of 'cut-off' years explored (i.e., between when e-cigarettes were first introduced to when they became widely available). These trends were projected forward to predict what smoking prevalence would have been if pre-e-cigarette era trends had continued uninterrupted. The difference between actual and predicted smoking prevalence ('discrepancy') was compared to e-cigarette use prevalence in each year in the e-cigarette era to investigate whether the observed decline in smoking was statistically associated with e-cigarette use.

RESULTS

Observed smoking prevalence in the e-cigarette era was significantly lower than expected based on pre-e-cigarette era trends; these discrepancies in smoking prevalence grew as e-cigarette use prevalence increased, and were larger in subpopulations with higher e-cigarette use, especially younger adults aged 18-34. Results were robust to sensitivity tests varying the analysis design.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level data continue to suggest that smoking prevalence has declined at an accelerated rate in the last decade in ways correlated with increased uptake of e-cigarette use.

Reply to Commentary on "Adult Smokers' Complete Switching Away from Cigarettes at 6, 9, and 12 Months After Initially Purchasing a JUUL e-Cigarette" and the Adult JUUL Switching and Smoking Trajectories (ADJUSST) Study

BACKGROUND

This is authors' reply to the Commentary on our publication entitled "Adult smokers' Complete Switching Away from Cigarettes at 6, 9, and 12 Months after Initially Purchasing a JUUL e-Cigarette."

METHODS AND RESULTS

Analyses addressed questions about follow-up rates and missed responses in the Adult JUUL Switching and Smoking Trajectories (ADJUSST) Study. Results demonstrate limited potential for selection bias, as participants who missed surveys were similar to those with complete data, and re-contact of participants who missed a follow-up indicated almost half were not smoking. Imputing smoking behavior for missing data would likely introduce bias and is not appropriate. The study demonstrated that JUUL products can facilitate high rates of complete switching away from cigarettes as suggested in previous experimental and observational studies. The ADJUSST cohort, including baseline nonsmokers, demonstrates a net reduction in smoking prevalence. Moreover, population modeling considering both benefits and harms demonstrated a net population benefit.

CONCLUSION

While the ADJUSST Study is not without limitations, the findings are consistent with multiple streams of real-world evidence that indicate that ENDS can facilitate switching among adults who smoke, and provide population benefits.

Optimal Taxation of Cigarettes and E-Cigarettes: Principles for Taxing Reduced-Harm Tobacco Products

As the tax base for traditional tobacco excise taxes continues to erode, policymakers have growing interest to expand taxation to novel and reduced-risk tobacco products. Chief among the latter are electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; commonly known as e-cigarettes), although other reduced-risk tobacco products such as heated tobacco and smokeless tobacco products are also being considered for taxation. There are many possible rationales for taxing such products: to raise revenue, to correct for health externalities, to improve public health, to correct for internalities caused by irrationality or misinformation, and to redistribute income. Although each rationale leads to a different objective function, the conclusions regarding relative tax rates are largely the same. The relatively higher price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes (compared to cigarettes) and the lower marginal harms from use imply in each case that taxes on e-cigarettes and other harm-reduced products should be relatively lower, and likely much lower, than those on cigarettes. Additional considerations concerning the policy goal of discouraging use of any tobacco product by youth are discussed as well.

Youth patterns of use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) waves 4-5.5

INTRODUCTION

Youth use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) is a continuing concern, making it important to assess evolving patterns, especially as non-tobacco, non-menthol (NTM) flavors were withdrawn for pod-based (but not disposable) ENDS in February 2020.

METHODS

Trends in past-30-day (P30D) ENDS use and smoking prevalence, usual device type, flavor (tobacco, mint/menthol, or fruit/sweet/other), and regular/last-used brand in PATH Waves 4 (2017), 4.5 (2018), 5 (2019), and 5.5 (2020) were examined. Shifts between 2019 and 2020 in flavor use for pods and disposables were examined.

RESULTS

P30D ENDS use peaked in 2019 at 8.6 % of all youth, subsequently declining by nearly half to 4.5 % in 2020. Meanwhile, P30D cigarette smoking declined to an all-time low (1.3 %) in 2020. Within this overall decline, consumption shifted to disposable ENDS, which increased nearly 10-fold (from 5.0 % to 49.2 % of P30D ENDS users). Relatedly, use of fruit/sweet/other flavors remained similar overall between 2019 and 2020 (approximately 75-80 % of P30D ENDS users), but the use of these flavors became concentrated in disposable ENDS in 2020 (a 12-fold increase from 4.4 % to 58.4 % of fruit/sweet/other-flavor users).

CONCLUSIONS

PATH results show similar trends to other US national surveys in youth ENDS trends. The removal of non-tobacco, non-menthol flavors in pod-based ENDS (while remaining available in disposables) has likely driven youth towards disposable devices, resulting in continued high use of fruit/sweet/other flavors, which are now predominant in users of disposable ENDS. Wave 5.5 is uninformative regarding brand use because common disposable brands were not queried.