Performance of platelet count/spleen diameter ratio for diagnosis of esophageal varices in cirrhosis: a meta-analysis

Prediction of Esophageal Varices in Viral Hepatitis C Cirrhosis: Performance of Combined Ultrasonography and Clinical Predictors

Objectives

This study is aimed at evaluating the diagnostic performance of clinical predictors and the Doppler ultrasonography in predicting esophageal varices (EV) in patients with hepatitis C-related cirrhosis and exploring the practical predictors of EV.

Methods

We conducted a prospective study from July 2020 to January 2021, enrolling 65 patients with mild hepatitis C-related cirrhosis. We obtained clinical data and performed grayscale and the Doppler ultrasound to explore the predictors of EV. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) was performed as the reference test by the gastroenterologist within a week.

Results

The prevalence of EV in the study was 41.5%. Multivariable regression analysis revealed that gender (female, OR = 4.04, p = 0.02), platelet count (<150000 per ml, OR = 3.13, p = 0.09), splenic length (>11 cm, OR = 3.64, p = 0.02), and absent right hepatic vein (RHV) triphasicity (OR = 3.15, p = 0.03) were significant predictors of EV. However, the diagnostic accuracy indices for isolated predictors were not good (AUROC = 0.63-0.66). A combination of these four predictors increases the diagnostic accuracy in predicting the presence of EV (AUROC = 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.91). Furthermore, the Doppler assessment of the right hepatic vein waveform showed good reproducibility (κ = 0.76).

Conclusion

Combining clinical and Doppler ultrasound features can be used as a screening test for predicting the presence of EV in patients with hepatitis C-related cirrhosis. The practical predictors identified in this study could serve as an alternative to invasive EGD in EV diagnosis. Further studies are needed to explore the diagnostic accuracy of additional noninvasive predictors, such as elastography, to improve EV screening.

Predicting the Severity of Esophageal Varices in Patients with Hepatic Cirrhosis Using Non-Invasive Markers

Background

The presence and extent of severity of esophageal varices (EV) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) are predicted using noninvasive clinical, biochemical, and imaging parameters. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of noninvasive predictors of EV, such as the platelet count-to-spleen diameter ratio (PSR), platelet count-to-spleen volume ratio (PSVR), spleen size (SZ), and a combination of these markers in determining the severity of EV in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

We recruited 82 inpatients with LC from the Department of Gastroenterology at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University between January 2018 and December 2019 for this diagnostic investigation. All patients underwent endoscopy, ultrasound, computed tomography, and routine laboratory investigations. For the study, we evaluated and compared the diagnostic accuracy of PSR, PSVR, SZ, and their combinations.

Results

There were significant differences in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in the prediction of severe and moderate/severe EV for all the variables. PSR+PSVR had the highest AUC at 0.735 (95% CI: 0.626-0.826) and 0.765 (95% CI: 0.659-0.852) for predicting severe and moderate/severe EV, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in the AUCs (95% CI) for PSR, PSVR, and PSR+PSVR in predicting the existence of EV. As per the overall model quality chart, the combination of PSR+PSVR was the best indicator for detecting the presence of EV (AUC, 0.696; 95% CI: 0.584-0.792).

Conclusion

In our study, we found that these noninvasive parameters could predict the extent of severity of EV in patients with LC. We anticipate the use of a combination of PSR + PSVR to emerge as the superior indicator as studies progress.

Gallbladder Wall Thickness as a Non-Invasive Marker for Esophageal Varices: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The early detection of esophageal varices (EV) is important in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). Non-invasive diagnostic markers are preferred to avoid the cost and potential complications associated with endoscopy. The gallbladder venous blood is drained via small veins which terminate in the portal venous circulation. Therefore, the gallbladder wall thickness (GBWT) can be affected by portal hypertension. We conducted the present study to evaluate the diagnostic and predictive utility of ultrasound GBWT measurement in patients with EV.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Embase for relevant studies up to March 15, 2022, using the keywords "varix", "varices", and "gallbladder" to search the databases by title and abstract. Our meta-analysis was performed using the "meta" package of R software version 4.1.0 and meta-disc for diagnostic test accuracy (DTA).

Results

We included 12 studies in our review (N = 1343 participants). The gallbladder thickness was significantly larger in patients with EV compared with the control group (MD = 1.86 mm; 95% CI, 1.36-2.36). The DTA analysis and summary ROC plot showed an AUC of 86% and Q∗ = 0.80. The pooled sensitivity was 73% and the specificity was 86.

Conclusions

Our analysis shows that GBWT measurement is a promising predictor of esophageal varices in chronic liver disease patients.

Egyptian revalidation of non-invasive parameters for predicting esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

In resource-limited countries, non-invasive tests for assessing liver fibrosis are a potential alternative to costly endoscopic screening for esophageal varices. We aimed to validate several non-invasive parameters for predicting the presence of varices.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between September 2006 and August 2017, a total of 46,014 patients who underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy as one of the perquisites for receiving hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy were enrolled and divided into group I (without varices) and group II (with varices). Non-invasive parameters of fibrosis, namely Lok index, Bonacini score, liver stiffness, FIB-4, Baveno, and extended Baveno criteria, were validated.

RESULTS

Lok index, Bonacini score, liver stiffness, and FIB-4 had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of >0.6 (all P < 0.01 for the null hypothesis that the AUC was 0.5) for determination of the presence/absence of varices, with cutoff values of 0.80, 6.5, 21.9 kPa, and 2.94, and sensitivities of 74%, 74%, 66%, and 83%, respectively. The expanded Baveno VI criteria performed better than the Baveno VI criteria (spared endoscopy rate 81% versus 63%).

CONCLUSION

The use of non-invasive methods is of limited value in predicting esophageal varices. The limited accuracy of ≤60% may delay the use of appropriate primary prophylaxis against variceal bleeding in a large proportion of cirrhotic patients.

Validation of the EVendo score for the prediction of varices in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

Screening endoscopy for varices may be deferred when the calculated EVendo score is ≤3.90. This novel score has not been validated in an external cohort. This study aimed to assess the performance of the EVendo score and compare it with the Baveno VI criteria.

METHODS

We identified and calculated this score in all cirrhotic patients who underwent screening endoscopy for the first time with laboratory tests and liver stiffness measurements within 6 months of the endoscopy date.

RESULTS

In total, 103 patients were included. An EVendo score of ≤3.90 identified patients with no gastroesophageal varices (GEV) and varices needing treatment (VNT) with sensitivities of 82% and 83% and specificities of 57% and 34%, respectively. The negative predictive value for VNT was 94%. A comparison with the Baveno VI criteria in Child-Turcotte-Pugh-A patients showed spared endoscopy and missed VNT rates with EVendo score cutoffs of ≤3.9 and ≤4.5 and the Baveno VI criteria of 25%, 33%, and 16.6% and 1.7%, 1.7%, and 0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

EVendo score is reliable in clinical practice for predicting GEV and VNT. The number of spared endoscopies was higher than that with the Baveno VI criteria; however, there were more missed VNT cases.

Dual-energy computed tomography for non-invasive prediction of the risk of oesophageal variceal bleeding with hepatitis B cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

Oesophageal variceal bleeding (OVB) is a fatal complication of cirrhosis and/or portal hypertension. We aimed to develop a non-invasive prediction model for the risk of OVB using dual-energy computed tomography (CT).

METHODS

317 oesophageal varices (OV) patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis were retrospectively assessed from January 2018 to December 2018. All patients underwent dual-energy CT scans within 14 days before endoscopy. 222 of 317 patients (174 OVB-negative patients and 48 OVB-positive patients) were included in the training cohort and 95 patients (74 OVB-negative patients and 21 OVB-positive patients) were included in the validation cohort chronologically. A model with the selected conventional CT features and a model with the conventional CT and dual-energy CT features were developed. The prediction accuracy was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The accuracy and reproducibility of the models for OVB risk prediction of cirrhosis were validated by the validation cohort. The areas under the curve (AUC) of the two models were compared with Delong test.

RESULTS

Diameter of oesophageal vein (OV(mm)), diameter of splenic vein (SPV(mm)), ascites (AS), iodine concentration in short gastric vein (SGV(HU)), iodine concentration in spleen (SP(HU)) were independent predictors of OVB risk (P < 0.05). Then, we developed a model with the selected conventional CT features [OV(mm), SPV(mm), AS] and a model with the conventional CT and dual-energy CT features [OV(mm), SPV(mm), AS, SGV(HU), SP(HU)]. The AUCs of the model built with the conventional CT and dual-energy CT features were higher than the model built only with the conventional CT features in the training (0.839 vs 0.809) and validation cohorts (0.798 vs 0.738).

CONCLUSION

The non-invasive prediction model developed with the conventional CT and dual-energy CT features may have added value in noninvasively predicting OVB than the model built only with the conventional CT features and may have significant clinical implications on early prevention and treatment of OVB.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

Combination of dual-energy CT with conventional CT may have added value for non-invasive prediction of OVB compared to conventional CT.

Soluble CD163 for Prediction of High-Risk Esophageal Varices and Variceal Hemorrhage in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Activation of hepatic macrophages in liver disease is pathogenically related to portal hypertension (PH). Soluble CD163 (sCD163) is shed in blood by activated macrophages and may predict PH progression noninvasively. This study was designed to investigate the relation of serum sCD163 to the grade and bleeding risk of esophageal varices (EV) and its role for prediction of variceal hemorrhage (VH). <b><i>Methods:</i></b> The study included cirrhotic patients divided into 3 groups: patients who presented with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) proved to originate from EV on endoscopy, patients without any history of UGIB but who revealed EV on surveillance endoscopy, and patients without endoscopic evidence of varices. Variceal grade and risk signs and bleeding stigmata were noted simultaneously with measurement of serum sCD163 concentration. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Serum sCD163 concentration showed a significant increase in cirrhotic patients compared to healthy subjects (<i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.001) with a stepwise increase among the group without varices, nonbleeder group, and bleeder group sequentially. Serum sCD163 levels correlated positively with the variceal grade and risk signs in both the bleeder and nonbleeder groups (<i>p</i> = 0.002, <i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.001 and <i>p</i> = 0.004, <i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.001, respectively). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value of 3.6 mg/L performed significantly for prediction of EV presence (AUC = 0.888). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value &#x3e;4 mg/L significantly predicted large-size and high-risk EV (AUC = 0.910 and AUC = 0.939, respectively) and the index bleed risk (AUC = 0.977). Serum sCD163 at a cutoff value &#x3e;4.05 mg/L modestly discriminated bleeding EV from those that had never bled (AUC = 0.811). <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Serum sCD163 levels accurately predicted high-grade and high-risk EV and could help plan for primary prophylaxis. However, it modestly identified VH occurrence, and endoscopy would be required to make a definitive diagnosis.

Ultrasonographic (US) Two-Dimensional Measurement of Spleen Is Superior to Traditional Length Measurement Alone in Diagnosing Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Splenomegaly measured by spleen length has been an imaging evidence for cirrhosis. However, data remains lacking on the value of other US findings for diagnosing cirrhosis. This study evaluated the value of spleen two-dimensional measurements (2D, i.e., length × thickness) in diagnosing cirrhosis by comparing with other US parameters.

METHODS

A retrospective study on 297 cohort 1 patients with clinical/imaging diagnosis of cirrhosis was conducted. Spleen length and thickness were measured via US imaging and compared with other US parameters using statistical analysis to assess their value in diagnosing cirrhosis. A separate 161 cohort 2 patients with histological fibrosis staging was used to validate the findings from the cohort 1.

RESULTS

Using 297 cohort 1 patients, US findings of spleen length > 12 cm (50.6% vs. 9.6%, p < 0.001); spleen thickness > 4 cm (78.2% vs. 21%, p < 0.001); and spleen 2D > 46 cm² (81.6% vs. 15.3%, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with, but only spleen 2D > 46 cm² (95% CI 7.9-92.8, p < 0.001) was independently associated with clinical/imaging evidence of cirrhosis on multivariate analysis. We further analyzed 161 cohort 2 patients and validated that US finding of spleen 2D > 46 cm² carried the best sensitivity and specificity (93.5% and 95.3%) and was the only US parameter independently associated with histological stage 3-4 fibrosis, i.e., cirrhosis (95% CI 3.1-87, p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Using both testing and validation cohorts, we demonstrated that spleen 2D > 46 cm² carries 93.5% sensitivity and 95.3% specificity and is superior to other US parameters in diagnosing cirrhosis.

Role of non-invasive markers in prediction of esophageal varices and variceal bleeding in patients of alcoholic liver cirrhosis from central India

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Alcohol is the leading cause of liver cirrhosis, which results in portal hypertension and subsequently, culminates into esophageal varices and esophgeal variceal bleeding. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy is gold standard for diagnosis of varices. Non-invasive markers based on clinical, laboratory - ultrasonographic parameters can be utilised for prediction of risk of esophageal varices - variceal bleed in alcoholic cirrhosis from central India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a cross sectional observational study. Child Turcot Pugh scores, MELD, AST ALT Ratio(AAR), AST Platelet Ratio Index(APRI), FIB-4 index and Platelet count-Spleen diameter(PC/SD) ratio were calculated for all patients and correlated with esophagogastroduodenoscopy findings. Short term follow up was done for variceal bleeding.

RESULTS

Total 202 male patients were included with mean age of 43.77±9.95 years. 188(93%) patients had esophageal varices. 61(30.19%) patients had variceal bleeding. On univariate analysis platelet count, APRI, spleen bipolar diameter, and PC/SD ratio were significantly associated with varices. For prediction of esophageal varices, only PC/SD ratio was significant and showed area under the curve of 65.6% at cut-off of <997. CTP score, FIB-4, APRI, and PC/SD ratio were significant for variceal bleeding. At cut-off <985 PC/SD ratio had sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 63% with AUC of 78% for prediction of variceal bleeding. Also, FIB-4 and APRI had diagnostic accuracy of 64% and 61% with AUC of 74% and 72% respectively for bleed.

CONCLUSION

FIB-4 and PC/SD may be useful among armamentarium of non-invasive markers for predicting esophageal varices and risk of variceal bleeding in alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

Screening for esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients - Non-invasive methods

Variceal bleeding is a dramatic complication of cirrhosis. Primary prophylaxis against variceal bleeding is indicated for patients with high-risk varices. In order for these patients to be identified, endoscopic screening for esophageal varices has been traditionally recommended at the time of the diagnosis of cirrhosis. Considering that many patients do not have esophageal varices in the early stages of cirrhosis and, therefore, are submitted to endoscopy unnecessarily, non-invasive methods for variceal screening have been studied. Among these non-invasive methods, the most extensively studied probably are platelet count/spleen diameter ratio, liver stiffness, spleen stiffness and an association between liver stiffness and platelet count, referred to as the Baveno VI criteria. The Baveno VI criteria has recently been recommended by different medical associations for variceal screening. This is a critical review on the non-invasive methods for variceal screening, in which the performances of the different methods are presented and the limitations of the existing evidence is discussed. Despite reasonable performances of some of these methods, especially platelet count/spleen diameter ratio and the association between liver stiffness and platelet count, we understand that the available evidence still has relevant limitations and that physicians should decide on screening cirrhotic patients for esophageal varices with endoscopy or non-invasive methods on a case-by-case basis.

Non-invasive assessment of large esophageal varices with liver cirrhosis ; a study conducted in Pakistan

The assessment of non-invasive parameters for the prediction of large esophageal varices among patients with liver cirrhosisis is of utmost importance. In this study, non-invasive parameters for prediction of large esophageal varices were retrospectively evaluated. The presence of esophageal varices grade III and IV was classified as large esophageal varices positive while no varices or grade I and II were classified as large esophageal varices negative. There were 473 (90.09%) patients with ascites [mild 38 (8.03%), moderate 257 (54.33%) and severe 178 (37.63%)]. Frequency of esophageal varices was found to be higher (n=415, 79.04%). Whereas, large esophageal varices were found in 251 (47.81%) patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, negative predicted value and test accuracy of thrombocytopenia in predicting large esophageal varices were found to be 88.05%, 59.85%, 66.77%, 84.54% and 73.33% respectively. A significant association for large esophageal varices was observed for low platelet counts (AOR : 0.98, 95% CI : 0.97-0.99), high bilirubin level (AOR : 1.22, 95% CI : 1.07-1.39), ascites (AOR : 1.98, CI : 1.02-3.85) and Child score A (AOR : 0.26, 95% CI : 0.09-0.75) and Child Score B (AOR : 0.42, 95% CI : 0.28-0.61). In conclusion, low platelet count, high bilirubin level and ascites are found to be non-invasive predictive factor for large esophageal varices. J. Med. Invest. 66 : 248-251, August, 2019.

Course of oesophageal varices and performance of noninvasive predictors following Hepatitis C Virus clearance in compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND

In patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), there is evidence that sustained virological response (SVR) to direct-acting antivirals (DAA) may ameliorate portal hypertension, although both the course of oesophageal varices and the performance of their noninvasive predictors following DAA-induced SVR are less defined. In this study, our aim was to assess the variation in oesophageal varices status in HCV patients with cACLD who obtained an SVR to DAAs and to evaluate the diagnostic performance of noninvasive predictors of varices after HCV cure.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Sixty-three HCV patients with cACLD and SVR to DAAs were prospectively followed up, and oesophageal varices surveillance was carried out according to the Baveno VI indications. Appearance and disappearance of varices, accuracy performance of their noninvasive predictors (Baveno/expanded Baveno VI criteria, platelet count/spleen diameter ratio) and number of endoscopies spared with their application were calculated.

RESULTS

Following SVR, varices developed or disappeared in 12.1% and 17.4% of patients, respectively. The negative predictive value for varices of the Baveno VI, expanded Baveno VI criteria and platelet count/spleen diameter ratio following SVR was 88.2% (65.6-96.7), 83.3% (66.3-92.7) and 80.7% (67.1-89.5), respectively. Their application would have saved 30.4%, 42.9% and 55.4% of endoscopies, with no varices needing treatment missed using both Baveno VI criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

In HCV patients with cACLD, following SVR to DAA, the expanded Baveno VI criteria provide the best balance between utility (diagnostic accuracy and endoscopies avoided) and safety (varices needing treatment missed) for varices surveillance.

Acoustic radiation forced impulse-based splenic prediction model using data mining for the noninvasive prediction of esophageal varices in hepatitis C virus advanced fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Esophageal varices (EV) are serious complications of hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis. Endoscopic screening is expensive, invasive, and uncomfortable. Accordingly, noninvasive methods are mandatory to avoid unnecessary endoscopy. Acoustic radiation forced impulse (ARFI) imaging using point shear wave elastography as demonstrated with virtual touch quantification is a possible noninvasive EV predictor. We aimed to validate the reliability of liver stiffness (LS) and spleen stiffness (SS) by an ARFI-based study together with other noninvasive parameters for EV prediction in HCV patients. Also, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of a new simple prediction model (incorporating SS) using data mining analysis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 200 HCV patients with advanced fibrosis. Labs, endoscopic, ultrasonographic, LS, and SS data were collected. Their accuracy in diagnosing EV was assessed and a data mining analysis was carried out.

RESULTS

Ninety patients (22/46% of F3/F4 patients) had EV (39/30/18/3 patients had grade I/II/III/IV, respectively). LS and SS by ARFI showed high significance in differentiating not only patients with/without EV (P = 0.000 for both) but also correlated with the grading of varices (R = 0.31 and 0.45, respectively; P = 0.000 for both). Spleen longitudinal diameter (SD), splenic vein diameter (SVD), platelets to spleen diameter ratio, LOK index, and FIB-4 score were the best ultrasonographic and biochemical predictors for the prediction of EV [area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.79, 0.76, 0.76, 0.74, and 0.71, respectively]. SS (using ARFI) had better diagnostic performance than LS for the prediction of EV (AUROC = 0.76 and 0.70, respectively). The diagnostic performance increased using data mining to construct a simple prediction model: high probability for EV if [(SD cm) × 0.17 + (SVD mm) × 0.06 + (SS) × 0.97] more than 6.35 with AUROC 0.85.

CONCLUSION

SS by ARFI represents a reliable noninvasive tool for the prediction of EV in HCV patients, especially when incorporated into a new data mining-based prediction model.

The magnitude and correlates of esophageal Varices among newly diagnosed cirrhotic patients undergoing screening fibre optic endoscope before incident bleeding in North-Western Tanzania; a cross-sectional study

Background

Bleeding esophageal varices is a deadly complication of liver cirrhosis. Guidelines recommend an early diagnosis of esophageal varices before incident bleeding by screening all patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis. Though it has been reported elsewhere that the presence of esophageal varices varies widely among cirrhotic patients this has not been assessed in Tanzania since endoscopy is not readily available for routine use in our setting. This study was designed to determine the prevalence of esophageal varices and assess the utility of clinical parameters in predicting the presence of varices among cirrhotic patients in northwestern Tanzania.

Methods

A cross-sectional analysis of adult patients with liver cirrhosis was done at Bugando Medical Centre. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and endoscopic data were collected and analyzed using STATA 13. The presence of esophageal varices was detected using endoscopic examination and associated factors were assessed by logistic regression. The predictive value of clinical predictors was also assessed by calculating sensitivity and specificity.

Results

A total of 223 patients were enrolled, where 88 (39.5%; 95%CI: 33.0–45.9) had esophageal varices. The varices were independently associated with increased age (OR: 1.02; 95%CI: 1.0–1.04; p = 0.030); increased splenic diameter (OR:1.3; 95%CI:1.2–1.5; p <  0.001), increased portal vein diameter (OR:1.2; 95%CI: 1.07–1.4; p = 0.003), having ascites (OR: 3.0; 95%CI: 1.01–8.7; p = 0.046), and advanced liver disease (OR: 2.9; 95%CI: 1.3–6.7; p = 0.008). PSDR least performed in predicting varices, (AUC: 0.382; 95%CI: 0.304–0.459; cutoff: < 640; Sensitivity: 58.0%; 95%CI: 46.9–68.4; specificity: 57.0%; 95%CI: 48.2–65.5). SPD had better prediction; (AUC: 0.713; 95%CI: 0.646–0.781; cut off: > 15.2 cm; sensitivity: 65.9%; (95% CI: 55–75.7 and specificity:65.2%; 95%CI: 56.5–73.2), followed by PVD, (AUC: 0.6392; 95%CI: 0.566–0.712;cutoff: > 1.45 cm; sensitivity: 62.5%; 95CI: 51.5–72.6; specificity: 61.5%; 95%CI: 52.7–69.7).

Conclusion

Esophageal varices were prevalent among cirrhotic patients, most of which were at risk of bleeding. The non-invasive prediction of varices was not strong enough to replace endoscopic diagnosis. However, the predictors in this study can potentially assist in the selection of patients at high risk of having varices and prioritize them for endoscopic screening and appropriate management.

Percentage of small platelets on peripheral blood smear and Child-Turcott-Pugh class can predict the presence of oesophageal varices in newly diagnosed patients with cirrhosis: development of a prediction model for resource limited settings

Background

In cirrhosis upper-gastrointestinal-endoscopy (UGIE) identifies oesophageal varices (OV). UGIE is unavailable in most resource-limited settings. Therefore, we assessed prediction of presence of OV using hematological parameters (HP) and Child-Turcott-Pugh (CTP) class.

Methods

A prospective study was carried out on consecutive, consenting, newly-diagnosed patients with cirrhosis, in the University Medical Unit, Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama, Sri Lanka from April 2014–April 2016. All patients had UGIE to evaluate presence and degree of OV, prior to appropriate therapy. HP (full blood count with indices using automated analyzer and peripheral blood smear using Leishmann stain) and CTP class were assessed on admission. Linear logistic regression model was developed to predict OV using HP and CTP class.

Results

54-patients with cirrhosis were included [14(26%), 24(44%) and 16(30%) belonged to CTP class A, B and C respectively]. 37 had varices [CTP-A 4/14(26.6%), CTP-B 19/24(79.2%), CTP-C 14/16(87.5%)] on UGIE. Generalized linear model fitting showed decreasing percentage of small platelets (%SP) (P = 0.002), CTP-B (P = 0.003) and CTP-C (P = 0.003) compared to CTP-A had higher probability of having OV. The model predicts the log odds for having OV = − 0.189 – (0.046*%SP) + 2.9 [if CTP-B] + 3.7 [if CTP-C]. Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, a model value > − 0.19 was selected as the cutoff point to predict OV with 89%-sensitivity, 76%-specificity, 89%-positive predictive value and 76%-negative predictive value.

Conclusions

We constructed a model using %SP on peripheral blood smear and CTP class. This model may be used to predict the presence of OV, in newly diagnosed patients with cirrhosis, with acceptable sensitivity and specificity, to prioritize the patients who deserve early UGIE in limited resource settings.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12876-019-1054-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Can acoustic radiation force imaging of the liver and spleen predict the presence of gastroesophageal varices?

AIM

To determine whether acoustic radiation force imaging (ARFI) of the liver/spleen could be used in patients with cirrhosis to predict the presence of gastroesophageal varices (GOVs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fifty-eight patients with cirrhosis who were undergoing 6-monthly ultrasound examinations for hepatoma surveillance and who were due to have oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD) within 6 months of their ultrasound were recruited. During routine ultrasound, the patient's liver and spleen were also assessed using ARFI. Other clinical parameters (platelet count, spleen size, and transient elastography measurements) were also collected. Logistic regression was used to determine which variables were significantly associated with presence or absence of varices univariably and multivariably RESULTS: Fourteen patients (24%) had GOVs. Patients with GOVs had higher ARFI measurements in the liver and spleen than patients without GOVs (liver: 2.39 versus 2.13, spleen: 2.89 versus 2.82), but these results were not statistically significant (odds ratio=1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.82, 3.91 and odds ratio=1.12, 95% CI=0.33, 3.97, respectively). The platelet/splenic ratio, in comparison, was associated with the presence or absence of GOVs in multivariate analysis (odds ratio=0.32, 95% CI=0.008, 0.91).

CONCLUSION

Although patients with GOVs had overall higher ARFI liver and spleen results, this was not statistically significant. As such, ARFI cannot yet replace OGD in predicting GOVs in this patient group.

Non-invasive tests for the detection of oesophageal varices in compensated cirrhosis: systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Conclusive data on the accuracy and clinical applicability of non-invasive screening tests for oesophageal varices (OV) in patients with compensated cirrhosis remain lacking. We conducted this study to identify currently available tests, estimate their diagnostic performance and then exemplify how these could be utilized in clinical practice.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed to identify all primary studies that reported accuracy using oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD) as the gold standard. Sources searched included Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases.

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies with a total of 2471 patients were identified. Several tests were evaluated in more than three studies. Platelet count/spleen diameter ratio (PSR) had the highest summary area under the curve for detection of any size OV of 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.78-0.92). At a cut-off of 909 (n = 4 studies) and prevalence rates of 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50% for OV, PSR screening correctly avoided the need for OGD in 70, 62, 55, 47 and 39% of patients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

PSR appears to be the most accurate and validated non-invasive screening test for OV in patients with compensated cirrhosis. At a cut-off of 909, PSR could be clinically useful to avoid OGDs in a significant proportion of patients.

Primary Prophylaxis for Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Children With Biliary Atresia and Portal Hypertension Candidates for Liver Transplantation: A Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis for biliary atresia (BA) is associated with risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (GB) from gastroesophageal varices due to portal hypertension. Primary prophylaxis of GB is controversial in children who are candidates for liver transplantation (LT). The aim of the study was to define the management of gastroesophageal varices and to identify the benefit of primary prophylaxis for GB in BA children waiting for LT.

METHODS

A retrospective single-center study including all BA children listed for LT in 2008-2016. Clinical, endoscopical, and biochemical data were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of 82 children, 50 (61%) did not receive primary prophylaxis and did not present any episode of bleeding, 16 (19.5%) underwent primary prophylaxis, and 16 (19.5%) presented spontaneous GB and received secondary prophylaxis. Children without primary prophylaxis and GB were younger than patients with primary prophylaxis and those with GB (7.7 years [range, 4.1-37.9 years] vs 11.2 years [range, 5.1-43 years]; P = .03 vs 10.7 years [range, 6.9-39.9 years], respectively; P = .004). Seventy-five percent of GB occurred in children older than 8 months. Fifteen (93.8%) children with GB presented esophageal varices (grade III = 10 [62.5%]) and 10 (62.5%) required endoscopic treatments, consisting mainly of sclerotherapy. Median time to LT was similar for children with or without bleeding (2 months [range, 0-17.7 months] vs 2.2 months [0-17.9 months], respectively; P = .89). After 45.5 months (range, 13.7-105.5 months) of follow-up, the overall patient survival was 97.6%. At the intention-to-treat analysis, the survival rate was 100% for patients without bleeding episode and 87.5% for children with GB (P = .16).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the risk of GB being not clinically predictable in children with BA waiting for LT, our experience suggests that primary prophylaxis of GB might be unnecessary in children younger than 6 months, while it should be considered in older children. Thus, the occurrence of GB does not delay the timing of transplantation.

Νon-invasive screening for esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis

Esophageal varices are one of the main complications of liver cirrhosis. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy is the gold standard for the detection of esophageal varices. Many less invasive methods for screening of varices have been investigated and the most recent Baveno VI guidelines suggest that endoscopy is not necessary in patients with liver stiffness <20 kPa and platelets >150,000/μL. A critical review of the literature was performed concerning non-invasive or minimally invasive methods of screening for esophageal varices. Liver and spleen elastography, imaging methods including computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound, laboratory tests and capsule endoscopy are discussed. The accuracy of each method, and its advantages and limitations compared to endoscopy are analyzed. There are data to support the Baveno VI guidelines, but there is still a lack of large prospective studies and low specificity has been reported for the liver stiffness and platelet count combination. Spleen elastography has shown promising results, as there are data to support its superiority to liver elastography, but it needs further assessment. Computed tomography has shown high diagnostic accuracy and can be part of the diagnostic work up of cirrhotic patients in the future, including screening for varices.

Portal hypertension and hypersplenism in extrahepatic portal venous obstruction: Are they related?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Portal hypertension (PHT) due to extrahepatic portal venous obstruction (EHPVO) is common in developing countries. Hypersplenism is a near-constant feature of EHPVO, but its significance, unlike in cirrhotics, is unknown. We aimed to study the relationship between hypersplenism and the severity of PHT in patients with EHPVO.

METHODS

This prospective study was done at a tertiary care center from January 2014 to August 2015. All patients with EHPVO who underwent a splenectomy and a shunt or devascularization were included. Data regarding clinical profile, preoperative parameters, and intraoperative details were recorded. The correlation was studied between hypersplenism and the intraoperatively measured portal pressures and markers of PHT.

RESULTS

Of the 40 patients studied (mean [SD] age 22.4 [8.4] years), hematological hypersplenism was present in 39 (97.5%). The mean (SD) hemoglobin, total leukocyte counts (TLC), and platelet counts were 9.9 (2.4) g/dL, 2971 (1239) cells/mm³, and 66,400 (32047) cells/mm³, respectively. The mean (SD) sonographic spleen volume (SV), splenic weight, and intraoperative portal pressure were 1084.7 (553.9) cm³, 1088.7 (454.7) g, and 35.6 (5.1) mmHg, respectively. The TLC and platelet counts correlated inversely with the portal pressure. Additionally, the platelet counts correlated negatively with eradicated variceal status, SV, and weight; hemoglobin with SV and weight; and TLC with SV. Multivariate analysis showed the platelet counts were an independent predictor of portal pressures and platelet counts ≤ 53,500 cells/mm³ indicated significantly high portal pressures.

CONCLUSIONS

The platelet counts showed a significant inverse correlation with portal pressures in patients with EHPVO and may be used as surrogate markers of PHT. A platelet count ≤ 53,500 cells/mm³ is predictive of significantly high pressures.

Platelet count to spleen thickness ratio is related to histologic severity of primary biliary cholangitis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of noninvasive markers to identify the histological severity of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC).Fifty-eight treatment-naïve PBC patients who had undergone liver biopsy were enrolled in our study. The patients' histological stages were based on the classifications of Ludwig and Scheuer. Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis index based on the 4 factors (FIB-4), red blood cell distribution width to platelet ratio (RPR), and platelet count to spleen thickness (PC/ST) ratio were calculated. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to evaluate the accuracy of different markers for predicting the histological severity.Among the 58 treatment-naïve PBC patients, the patients of Scheuer stage I/II/III/IV were 17/25/11/5, respectively. PC/ST ratio (AUROC = 0.807) was superior to RPR (AUROC = 0.717), APRI (AUROC = 0.726), FIB-4 (AUROC = 0.722), and mean platelet volume (MPV) (AUROC = 0.671) in discriminating between stage I and stage ≥II. The AUROC of PC/ST ratio, RPR, APRI, FIB-4, and MPV were 0.939, 0.872, 0.816, 0.831 and 0.572, respectively, for Scheuer stage ≥III; 0.968, 0.795, 0.744, and 0.723, respectively for stage IV. The sensitivity and specificity of PC/ST ratio were 73.4%,79.1%; 81%,100%;88.7%,100% for detection of Scheuer stage ≥ II, Scheuer stage ≥ III and Scheuer stage IV, respectively.Our study findings indicated that compared with previous noninvasive test PRP, APRI, FIB-4 and MPV, PC/ST ratio shows the most accurate for distinguish the histologic severity of PBC patients.

The noninvasive diagnosis of esophageal varices and its application in clinical practice

Here, we review recent improvements made to different noninvasive tests used for the diagnosis of esophageal varices (EV) in the light of the recent Baveno VI recommendation and with an emphasis on clinical application. Like for fibrosis tests, these noninvasive EV tests can be classified as direct markers when they provide a visualization of EV (including all imaging procedures like endoscopy or radiology) and as indirect markers when they do not (blood markers or elastometry). Clinical descriptors expressed as percentages, especially the spared endoscopy rate and the missed high-risk esophageal varices (HREV) rate, are more eloquent in this setting than classical statistical descriptors like accuracy. Single biomarkers are insufficient, generally due to a missed HREV rate exceeding the acceptable limit of 5% indicated in the Baveno VI consensus. Thus, biomarker combinations are currently garnering the most interest. The Baveno VI recommendation states that in alcoholic and viral cirrhoses, screening endoscopy can be safely set aside for patients with liver stiffness<20kPa and platelets>150G/L. The Baveno rule's mean missed HREV rate is<5% but its spared endoscopy rate is<20%. New combinations or stepwise algorithms show promise but must be validated. Going forward, the Baveno rule provides a simple noninvasive method to rule out HREV in clinical practice but the need for further research continues. The noninvasive diagnosis of HREV will be significantly improved by new, simple and affordable combinations.

PLATELET COUNT SQUARED/SPLEEN DIAMETER-ASPARTATE AMINOTRANSFERASE RATIO: NON-INVASIVE METHOD TO PREDICT ESOPHAGEAL VARICES

BACKGROUND

- Variceal bleeding has a high mortality among cirrhotics, and screening with endoscopy is indicated at the diagnosis of cirrhosis. Screening with endoscopy implies discomfort, risks and considerable costs.

OBJECTIVE

- To evaluate platelet count squared/spleen diameter-aspartate aminotransferase ratio (PS/SA), as a non-invasive predictor of esophageal varices in cirrhotics.

METHODS

- This cross-sectional study evaluated cirrhotics for PS/SA and presence of esophageal varices. Outpatient records of cirrhotic patients were reviewed for the abovementioned data. Sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of PS/SA were calculated. After the univariate analysis, variables with P<0.10 were submitted to a logistic regression.

RESULTS

- The study included 164 cirrhotics, 59.70% male, with a mean age of 56.7 years. Hepatitis C was the most frequent cause of cirrhosis, being present in 90 patients. Patients were classified as Child-Pugh A in 52.44% and as Child-Pugh B or C in 47.56%. Esophageal varices were present in 72.56% of the patients at endoscopy. PS/SA, with a cutoff of 3x108, had a sensitivity of 95.80% (confidence interval of 95% - 95%CI=0.92-0.99), a specificity of 22.70% (95%CI=0.10-0.35), a positive predictive value of 77.20% (95%CI=0.70-0.84) and a negative predictive value of 66.70% (95%CI=0.42-0.91). In the logistic regression, only platelet count and Child-Pugh score were associated to esophageal varices (P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

- PS/SA has an excellent sensitivity to predict esophageal varices, allowing almost one fourth of patients without esophageal varices to spare endoscopy. Nevertheless, PS/SA is not independently associated to esophageal varices.

Platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices in people with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend screening of people with oesophageal varices via oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy at the time of diagnosis of hepatic cirrhosis. This requires that people repeatedly undergo unpleasant invasive procedures with their attendant risks, although half of these people have no identifiable oesophageal varices 10 years after the initial diagnosis of cirrhosis. Platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio are non-invasive tests proposed as triage tests for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objectives To determine the diagnostic accuracy of platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices of any size in paediatric or adult patients with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, irrespective of aetiology. To investigate the accuracy of these non-invasive tests as triage or replacement of oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy. Secondary objectives To compare the diagnostic accuracy of these same tests for the diagnosis of high-risk oesophageal varices in paediatric or adult patients with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, irrespective of aetiology.We aimed to perform pair-wise comparisons between the three index tests, while considering predefined cut-off values.We investigated sources of heterogeneity.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies Register, the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), and Science Citation Index - Expanded (Web of Science) (14 June 2016). We applied no language or document-type restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of platelet count, spleen length, and platelet count-to-spleen length ratio for the diagnosis of oesophageal varices via oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy as the reference standard in children or adults of any age with chronic liver disease or portal vein thrombosis, who did not have variceal bleeding.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Standard Cochrane methods as outlined in the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test of Accuracy Reviews.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 71 studies, 67 of which enrolled only adults and four only children. All included studies were cross-sectional and were undertaken at a tertiary care centre. Eight studies reported study results in abstracts or letters. We considered all but one of the included studies to be at high risk of bias. We had major concerns about defining the cut-off value for the three index tests; most included studies derived the best cut-off values a posteriori, thus overestimating accuracy; 16 studies were designed to validate the 909 (n/mm3)/mm cut-off value for platelet count-to-spleen length ratio. Enrolment of participants was not consecutive in six studies and was unclear in 31 studies. Thirty-four studies assessed enrolment consecutively. Eleven studies excluded some included participants from the analyses, and in only one study, the time interval between index tests and the reference standard was longer than three months. Diagnosis of varices of any size. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63 to 0.77) and specificity of 0.80 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.88) (cut-off value of around 150,000/mm3 from 140,000 to 150,000/mm3; 10 studies, 2054 participants). When examining potential sources of heterogeneity, we found that of all predefined factors, only aetiology had a role: studies including participants with chronic hepatitis C reported different results when compared with studies including participants with mixed aetiologies (P = 0.036). Spleen length showed sensitivity of 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) and specificity of 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62) (cut-off values of around 110 mm, from 110 to 112.5 mm; 13 studies, 1489 participants). Summary estimates for detection of varices of any size showed sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.97) and specificity of 0.84 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) in 17 studies, and 2637 participants had a cut-off value for platelet count-to-spleen length ratio of 909 (n/mm3)/mm. We found no effect of predefined sources of heterogeneity. An overall indirect comparison of the HSROCs of the three index tests showed that platelet count-to-spleen length ratio was the most accurate index test when compared with platelet count (P < 0.001) and spleen length (P < 0.001). Diagnosis of varices at high risk of bleeding. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.85) and specificity of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.77) (cut-off value of around 150,000/mm3 from 140,000 to 160,000/mm3; seven studies, 1671 participants). For spleen length, we obtained only a summary ROC curve as we found no common cut-off between studies (six studies, 883 participants). Platelet count-to-spleen length ratio showed sensitivity of 0.85 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.93) and specificity of 0.66 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.77) (cut-off value of around 909 (n/mm3)/mm; from 897 to 921 (n/mm3)/mm; seven studies, 642 participants). An overall indirect comparison of the HSROCs of the three index tests showed that platelet count-to-spleen length ratio was the most accurate index test when compared with platelet count (P = 0.003) and spleen length (P < 0.001). DIagnosis of varices of any size in children. We found four studies including 277 children with different liver diseases and or portal vein thrombosis. Platelet count showed sensitivity of 0.71 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.80) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.91) (cut-off value of around 115,000/mm3; four studies, 277 participants). Platelet count-to-spleen length z-score ratio showed sensitivity of 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.81) and specificity of 0.64 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.84) (cut-off value of 25; two studies, 197 participants).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Platelet count-to-spleen length ratio could be used to stratify the risk of oesophageal varices. This test can be used as a triage test before endoscopy, thus ruling out adults without varices. In the case of a ratio > 909 (n/mm3)/mm, the presence of oesophageal varices of any size can be excluded and only 7% of adults with varices of any size would be missed, allowing investigators to spare the number of oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy examinations. This test is not accurate enough for identification of oesophageal varices at high risk of bleeding that require primary prophylaxis. Future studies should assess the diagnostic accuracy of this test in specific subgroups of patients, as well as its ability to predict variceal bleeding. New non-invasive tests should be examined.

Liver stiffness predicts variceal bleeding in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

A liver stiffness below 21 kPa has a high negative predictive value to exclude the presence of esophageal varices at risk of bleeding in HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected patients. Consequently, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE) for the screening of esophageal varices could be avoided in these patients. However, this strategy has not been widely accepted due to concerns about its safety.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the ability of liver stiffness to predict the risk of portal hypertensive gastrointestinal bleeding (PHGB) in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

Prospective study of 446 HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with a new diagnosis of cirrhosis and no previous decompensation. All patients underwent a UGE for the screening of esophageal varices at entry in the cohort before November 2009. From this date, UGE was not recommended in patients with liver stiffness below 21 kPa. The time from diagnosis of cirrhosis to the emergence of PHGB was evaluated.

RESULTS

After a median (quartile1-quartile3) follow-up of 49 (25-68) months, 15 (3.4%, 95% confidence interval 1.7-5%) patients developed a first PHGB episode. In all cases, baseline liver stiffness was at least 21 kPa. Thus, the negative predictive value of a liver stiffness below 21 kPa to predict PHGB during follow-up was 100%. At the time of the bleeding episode, liver stiffness was above this threshold in all patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver stiffness identifies HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with compensated cirrhosis with a very low risk of PHGB. In fact, no individual with liver stiffness below 21 kPa developed this outcome. Our results confirm that UGE can be safely spared in patients with liver stiffness below 21 kPa.

Platelet Count to Spleen Diameter Ratio for the Diagnosis of Gastroesophageal Varices in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Platelet count to spleen diameter ratio (PSR) was studied extensively as a noninvasive method of diagnosis for varices. The present study aimed to systematically assess the performance of PSR in the diagnosis of varices. PubMed, EMBASE, and article references were searched. The summary receiver operating characteristic curves (AUSROCs), sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio were calculated. The heterogeneity, quality, and publication bias of studies were evaluated. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed. A total of 49 papers were included. The AUSROCs of PSR for any varices and high-risk varices were 0.8719 and 0.8132, respectively. The summary sensitivities of PSR for any varices and high-risk varices were 0.84 and 0.78, respectively. The summary specificities of PSR for any varices and high-risk varices were 0.78 and 0.67, respectively. The AUSROC of PSR for any varices at the threshold of 909 was 0.8867. The AUSROC of PSR for any varices in viral liver cirrhosis was 0.8675. The overall quality of studies was moderate. Significant heterogeneity and publication bias existed in the study. In conclusion, PSR can be used to identify varices in liver cirrhosis. PSR had a high sensitivity in viral liver cirrhosis.

Diagnostic accuracy of contrast-enhanced computed tomography for esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Esophageal variceal bleeding is a life-threatening complication of liver cirrhosis. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy was the gold standard for the diagnosis of esophageal varices (EVs). The study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) in the diagnosis of EVs and moderate-severe EVs in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

Medical records in cirrhotic patients who were admitted to our hospital between June 2012 and June 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Two observers reviewed the contrast-enhanced CT scans to evaluate the presence and diameter of EVs. Area under curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 52 cirrhotic patients were included in our study. According to the endoscopic results, 13.5% of these patients did not have any EVs, 11.5% had mild EVs, and 75% had moderate-severe EVs. The AUC of contrast-enhanced CT scans for the diagnosis of EVs was 0.835. The sensitivity and specificity were 95.56% and 71.43%, respectively. The AUC of contrast-enhanced T scans for the diagnosis of moderate-severe EVs was 0.821. When the cut-off value for the diameter of EVs on contrast-enhanced CT scans was 3.9 mm, the sensitivity and specificity were 89.74% and 69.23%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrast-enhanced CT scans had a moderate diagnostic accuracy for EVs in liver cirrhosis. It might be useful to decrease the use of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in clinical practice.

Relationship between size of varices and platelet count/spleen size ratio in cirrhotic patients

OBJECTIVE:

This study investigated the relationship between size of gastroesophageal varices and platelet count/spleen diameter ratio in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS:

The present study included 186 cirrhotic patients in whom gastroesophageal varices were seen during upper gastrointestinal system endoscopy. Clinical features, laboratory parameters, upper gastrointestinal system endoscopy, and abdominal ultrasonographic findings of patients were evaluated retrospectively. Platelet count/spleen diameter ratio (P/S) was calculated by dividing number of platelets in complete blood count (CBC) to largest diameter of spleen. Varices were classified as small, medium, or large, and patients were separated into two groups for comparison: those with small varices and those with medium or large varices. Of the total, 66.7 % of the patients were men (n=124) and 33.3% were women (n=62). Esophageal varices were found in 82.7% and gastric varices were found in 17.3%.

RESULTS:

Patients with large esophageal varices were found to have significantly lower P/S compared to patients with small esophageal varices (p=0.04). In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, P/S and large varices correlated with 82% sensitivity and 79% positive predictive value. However, no statistically significant correlation between size of varices and P/S was found in patients with gastric varices (p=0.78).

CONCLUSION:

In patients with esophageal varices, P/S was found to be correlated with large varices with 82% sensitivity. However, this ratio did not predict large varices in patients with gastric varices. Prospective and randomized clinical researches are needed to clarify our findings.

Platelet count to spleen diameter ratio non-invasively identifies severe fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with autoimmune hepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Non-invasive markers are essential to assess the progression of chronic liver diseases to fibrosis/ cirrhosis and the effectiveness of therapeutic strategies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of non-invasive markers to identify significant fibrosis, severe fibrosis, and cirrhosis in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH).

METHODS

Seventy-six patients with AIH were enrolled in the study and analyzed for the following parameters of liver fibrosis: Fibrosis 4 score (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR), AST to platelet count ratio (APRI), and platelet count to spleen diameter (PC/SD) ratio. All patients underwent liver biopsy. The diagnostic accuracy of tests was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

Among the 76 AIH patients, 55 (72.3%) had significant fibrosis (≥ F2), 37 (48.7%) had severe fibrosis (≥ F3), and 29 (38.2%) had cirrhosis (F4). PC/SD ratio (AUROC = 0.840) was superior to AAR (AUROC = 0.756), FIB-4 (AUROC = 0.702), and APRI (AUROC = 0.626) in discriminating between mild and significant fibrosis (≥ F2). The AUROCs of PC/SD ratio, FIB-4, AAR, and APRI were 0.884, 0.742, 0.731, and 0.707, respectively, for severe fibrosis (≥ F3); 0.968, 0.795, 0.744, and 0.723, respectively, for cirrhosis (F4). PC/SD ratio correctly identified 85.1% of patients with severe fibrosis, and 89.6% of patients with cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

PC/SD ratio proved to be a simple non-invasive tool to correctly identify AIH patients with severe fibrosis and cirrhosis, thereby reducing the need for a liver biopsy in these patients.

A Prospective Comparison of Noninvasive Methods in the Assessment of Liver Fibrosis and Esophageal Varices in Pediatric Chronic Liver Diseases

GOALS AND BACKGROUND

We compared liver stiffness (LS), the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRi), and the platelet-to-spleen size z score ratio (P/SZC) in the prediction of liver fibrosis and esophageal varices in children.

STUDY

LS, APRi, SZC, and P/SZC were prospectively determined in 99 unselected consecutive children, who underwent liver biopsy for the follow-up of chronic liver disorders. LS was assessed by transient elastography. The spleen size was evaluated as the SD from age-specific and gender-specific normative values. Varices were assessed endoscopically (n=64). Biopsies were staged according to Metavir.

RESULTS

The median patient age was 6.0 (interquartile range, 1.8 to 12.9) years. Underlying diagnoses included intestinal failure (n=31), biliary atresia (n=24), and others (n=44). LS showed the strongest correlation with the fibrosis stage (r=0.639, P<0.001) compared with P/SZC (r=-0.427, P=0.003), APRi (r=0.419, P=0.001), or SZC (r=0.396, P=0.004). LS clearly performed the best in predicting fibrosis with area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) values of 0.789 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.698-0.879; P<0.001] for any (Metavir≥1), and 0.831 (95% CI, 0.745-0.918; P<0.001) for significant (Metavir≥2) fibrosis. For the prediction of the presence of esophageal varices, APRi had a higher AUROC of 0.832 (95% CI, 0.730-0.934; P<0.001), when compared with LS, SZC, or P/SZC with AUROCs of 0.818 (95% CI, 0.706-0.930; P<0.001), 0.795 (95% CI, 0.683-0.904; P=0.001), and 0.760 (95% CI, 0.610-0.909; P=0.004), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LS performed the best in predicting liver fibrosis, whereas APRi had the highest predictive accuracy for esophageal varices. An LS value over 7.7 kPa identified significant liver fibrosis with high accuracy, whereas low APRi ascertained the absence of esophageal varices.

Non-invasive Diagnosis of Oesophageal Varices Using Systemic Haemodynamic Measurements by Finometry: Comparison with Other Non-invasive Predictive Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Cirrhosis and portal hypertension are characterised by a hyperdynamic circulation, which is independently associated with variceal size. Non-invasive techniques for measurement of systemic haemodynamics are now available. The aim of the study was to prospectively assess the accuracy of systemic haemodynamics measured non-invasively for the detection of oesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients as compared to other currently available non-invasive methods.

METHODS

In a study of 29 cirrhotic patients, systemic haemodynamics were studied non-invasively using the Finometer^® (mean arterial pressure (MAP), cardiac output (CO)/index, heart rate (HR), peripheral vascular resistance) and portal pressure was assessed by hepatic venous pressure gradient. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were assessed for predicting presence of varices and large oesophageal varices. Results were compared to child's classification, platelet/spleen ratio and ALT/AST ratios as predictors of the presence of large varices.

RESULTS

Using finometry large oesophageal varices were correctly predicted in 83% of patients compared to other non-invasive techniques (range 66-76%).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-invasive assessment of systemic haemodynamics using finometry could aid the identification of patients who do not immediately require variceal surveillance reducing the numbers of endoscopies and ensuring services are provided to those most likely to benefit.

Diagnostic non-invasive model of large risky esophageal varices in cirrhotic hepatitis C virus patients

AIM

To build a diagnostic non-invasive model for screening of large varices in cirrhotic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients.

METHODS

This study was conducted on 124 post-HCV cirrhotic patients presenting to the clinics of the Endemic Medicine Department at Mansoura University Hospital for evaluation before HCV antiviral therapy: 78 were Child A and 46 were Child B (score ≤ 8). Inclusion criteria for patients enrolled in this study was presence of cirrhotic HCV (diagnosed by either biopsy or fulfillment of clinical basis). Exclusion criteria consisted of patients with other etiologies of liver cirrhosis, e.g., hepatitis B virus and patients with high MELD score on transplant list. All patients were subjected to full medical record, full basic investigations, endoscopy, and computed tomography (CT), and then divided into groups with no varices, small varices, or large risky varices. In addition, values of Fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4), aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and platelet count/splenic diameter ratio (PC/SD) were also calculated.

RESULTS

Detection of large varies is a multi-factorial process, affected by many variables. Choosing binary logistic regression, dependent factors were either large or small varices while independent factors included CT variables such coronary vein diameter, portal vein (PV) diameter, lieno-renal shunt and other laboratory non-invasive variables namely FIB-4, APRI, and platelet count/splenic diameter. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to determine the accuracy of non-invasive parameters for predicting the presence of large esophageal varices and the area under the ROC curve for each one of these parameters was obtained. A model was established and the best model for prediction of large risky esophageal varices used both PC/SD and PV diameter (75% accuracy), while the logistic model equation was shown to be (PV diameter × -0.256) plus (PC/SD × -0.006) plus (8.155). Values nearing 2 or more denote large varices.

CONCLUSION

This model equation has 86.9% sensitivity and 57.1% specificity, and would be of clinical applicability with 75% accuracy.

Prediction of esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients with apparent diffusion coefficient of the spleen

PURPOSE

To predict esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of the spleen and to correlate the ADC with clinical and laboratory biomarkers of esophageal varices.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was conducted upon 40 patients (28 male, 12 female; age ranged 19-45 years; mean age = 33 years) with biopsy-proven cirrhotic liver. Twenty age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers were included as a control group. Patients with varices (n = 15) and without varices (n = 25) and volunteers underwent echo-planar diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the abdomen with b factors of 0, 400, and 800 s/mm(2). The ADC maps of the abdomen were reconstructed. The ADC values of the spleen were calculated and correlated with the Child score, platelet count, and prothrombin time.

RESULTS

The mean ADC value of the spleen in cirrhotic patients (1.34 ± 0.05 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s) was significantly different (P = 0.001) from that of volunteers (0.87 ± 0.04 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s). The ADC of the spleen in cirrhotic patients with varices (1.49 ± 0.05 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s) was significantly different (P = 0.001) from that of patients without varices (1.11 ± 0.06 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s). The cut-off ADC value of the spleen used for prediction of cirrhosis and varices was 1.15 and 1.29 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s with areas under the curve were 0.872 and 0.889, respectively. The ADC value of the spleen was correlated with the splenic volume (r = 0.862; P = 0.001), Child score (r = 0.742; P = 0.001), platelet count (r = -0.698; P = 0.01), and prothrombin time (r = 0.684; P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The ADC value of the spleen can predict esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients and is well correlated with the clinical and laboratory biomarkers of esophageal varices.

Knowledge about non-invasive diagnostic tests for varices in liver cirrhosis: A questionnaire survey to the Gastroenterology Branch of the Liaoning Medical Association, China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Due to the invasiveness of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, non-invasive diagnostic tests for varices in liver cirrhosis have been widely established by numerous studies. A questionnaire survey, which was aimed at understanding the current knowledge about non-invasive diagnostic tests for varices in liver cirrhosis, was distributed among the members of Gastroenterology Branch of the Liaoning Medical Association.

METHODS

A questionnaire assessing the knowledge about non-invasive diagnostic tests for varices was sent to 42 members who participated in the entire ninth committee. They were from 33 hospitals in 13 cities of Liaoning Province, China.

RESULTS

Overall, 97.6% (41/42) of participants responded to the questionnaire. A majority of participants were chief physicians (85.4%), had >20 years of experience in clinical work of digestive diseases (80.5%) and worked at tertiary hospitals (97.6%). In 46.3% of participants' departments, there were >200 patients with liver cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices admitted every year. In 90.2% of participants' departments, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy was regularly employed for the diagnosis of gastroesophageal varices. Only six (15%) participants often used non-invasive diagnostic tests for varices in clinical practice. Thirty (75%) participants knew at least one non-invasive diagnostic test for varices. The knowledge of at least one non-invasive diagnostic test was significantly associated with the number of cirrhotic patients with varices (P = 0.038) or the regular use of gastrointestinal endoscopy to diagnose varices (P = 0.022).

CONCLUSIONS

This questionnaire survey suggested that non-invasive diagnostic tests for varices in liver cirrhosis were rarely or never used in clinical practices in Liaoning Province, China. Reliable, non-invasive indexes should be further explored in a well-designed multi-center observational study.

Predict esophageal varices via routine trans-abdominal ultrasound: A design of classification analysis model

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy remains the gold standard for diagnosis of esophageal varices. Trans-abdominal ultrasound, as a noninvasive routine examination for the follow-up of cirrhosis patient, is safe, cheap, easy to perform, and plays an important role. In this study, we attempt to design a practical classification analysis model to predict esophageal varices via ultrasound.

METHODS

Compared with endoscopy, the ultrasound qualitative signs (lower esophageal Doppler signals, left gastric vein hepatofugal flow, and paraumbilical vein recanalization) and quantitative parameters (spleen diameter, spleen vein diameter, portal vein diameter, and portal vein velocity) have been evaluated in 286 cirrhosis patients.

RESULTS

The classification analysis model is designed as that: the patients are defined with esophageal varices high risk, who with any ultrasound qualitative signs or who with spleen diameter greater than 162 mm without qualitative parameters. The sensitivity for detecting esophageal varices is 97.5% and the specificity is 82.6%, while the positive predictive value is 96.7%, negative predictive value is 83.4%, and the omission diagnostic rate is 2.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

This classification analysis model design includes ultrasound qualitative signs and spleen diameter, which can be detected easily via routine ultrasound without other auxiliary. The classification analysis model is useful in detecting esophageal varices, which may be a supplement for predicting of esophageal varices, and reducing the frequency of endoscopy in the follow-up of cirrhosis patients.

Diagnostic Accuracy of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex Scores in Predicting the Presence of Esophageal Varices in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio (APRI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex scores may be simple and convenient noninvasive diagnostic tests, because they are based on the regular laboratory tests and demographic data. This study aimed to systematically evaluate their diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of varices in liver cirrhosis.All relevant papers were searched via PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI, and Wanfang databases. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUSROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR and NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated.Overall, 12, 4, 5, 0, 0, 4, 3, and 1 paper was identified to explore the diagnostic accuracy of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex scores, respectively. The AUSROCs of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores for the prediction of varices were 0.6774, 0.7275, 0.7755, 0.7885, and 0.7517, respectively; and those for the prediction of large varices were 0.7278, 0.7448, 0.7095, 0.7264, and 0.6530, respectively. The diagnostic threshold effects of FIB-4 and Forns scores for the prediction of varices were statistically significant. The sensitivities/specificities/PLRs/NLRs/DORs of APRI, AAR, and Lok scores for the prediction of varices were 0.60/0.67/1.77/0.58/3.13, 0.64/0.63/1.97/0.54/4.18, and 0.74/0.68/2.34/0.40/5.76, respectively. The sensitivities/specificities/PLRs/NLRs/DORs of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores for the prediction of large varices were 0.65/0.66/2.15/0.47/4.97, 0.68/0.58/2.07/0.54/3.93, 0.62/0.64/2.02/0.56/3.57, 0.78/0.63/2.09/0.37/5.55, and 0.65/0.61/1.62/0.59/2.75, respectively.APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores had low to moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting the presence of varices in liver cirrhosis.

Factors associated with the platelet count in patients with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

There are many potential causes of thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC).

AIMS

We sought to determine the association between thrombopoietin (TPO) level, immature platelet fraction (IPF), immunoglobulin G (IgG) level, spleen size, and the platelet count in CHC.

METHODS

We studied a consecutive sample of patients enrolled in an observational study at a referral-based research center, excluding subjects based on eligibility criteria. TPO, glycocalicin, and von Willebrand Factor (vWF) levels were determined using stored sera. Hepatic fibrosis was assessed via transient elastography (TE) when available, and clinical laboratory values and radiologic data were obtained from the medical record. We performed analyses of the relationships between independent variables and the platelet count.

RESULTS

On univariate analysis, the following variables were significantly associated with the platelet count: age, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), direct bilirubin, total bilirubin, IPF, international normalized ratio (INR), spleen size, vWF, glycocalicin, fibrosis stage on liver biopsy, and TE (P-values all <0.05). A multivariable model determined that imputed TE score, TPO, IPF, and spleen size were independently associated with the platelet count (P-values all<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The platelet count in CHC is significantly associated with fibrosis, TPO level, IPF, and spleen size. Our findings challenge the proposed mechanism of decreased TPO levels or decreased bone marrow production of platelets as a cause of thrombocytopenia in CHC. Future studies focusing on the effects of fibrosis and splenomegaly on platelets may shed more light on the pathophysiology of thrombocytopenia in patients with CHC.

Noninvasive predictors of presence and grade of esophageal varices in viral cirrhotic patients

Predicting the presence and the grade of varices by non-invasive methods is likely to predict the need for prophylactic beta blockers or endoscopic variceal ligation. The factors related to the presence of varices are not well-defined. Therefore, the present study has been undertaken to determine the appropriateness of the various factors in predicting the existence and also the grade of esophageal varices. Patients with diagnosis of liver cirrhosis due to hepatitis C or B were included in a retrospective study between January 2001 and January 2010. All the patients underwent detailed clinical evaluation, appropriate investigations, imaging studies (ultrasound with Doppler) and endoscopy at our center. Five variables considered relevant to the presence and grade of varices were tested using univariate and multivariate analysis (logistic regression). Three hundred and seventy two patients with viral liver cirrhosis were included, with 192 (51.6%) males. Platelet count and abundance of ascites were significantly associated with the presence of esophageal varices. However, abundance of ascites, prothrombin time, diameter of the spleen and portal vein were significantly associated with a large varice. In multivariate analysis, platelet count inferior to 100000 was associated with presence of varices (p = 0.04) and only abundance of ascites was associated with large varice. Low Platelet count (< or equal 100000) is associated with the presence of varices in viral cirrhotic patients and abundance of ascites is correlated with the presence of large varices.

Epidemiology, diagnosis and early patient management of esophagogastric hemorrhage

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a potentially life-threatening complication of cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Combination therapy with vasoactive drugs and endoscopic variceal ligation is the first-line treatment in the management of AVB after adequate hemodynamic resuscitation. Short-term antibiotic prophylaxis, early resuscitation, early use of lactulose for prevention of hepatic encephalopathy, targeting of conservative goals for blood transfusion, and application of early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in patients with AVB have further improved the prognosis of AVB. This article discusses the epidemiology, diagnosis, and nonendoscopic management of AVB.

Esophageal varix predictive performance of lower esophageal Doppler signals during the swallowing process

The objective of this study was to assess whether the swallowing action can improve the display of lower esophageal Doppler signals (LEDS) during transabdominal ultrasound (TUS). Eighty-four patients with cirrhosis underwent both TUS and endoscopic examination for esophageal varices (EVs). LEDS were assessed under the esophageal resting state and during the swallowing process. Univariate analysis indicated that spleen diameter, spleen vein diameter, portal vein diameter, LEDS and left gastric vein hepatofugal flow were significantly associated with the presence of EVs. No LEDS were detected in patients without EVs at rest or during swallowing. Of the 69 patients with EVs, LEDS could be detected in 21 cases (30.4%) in the esophageal resting state and in 58 cases (84.1%) during the swallowing process. Compared with the esophageal resting state, the swallowing action can significantly improve display of LEDS during TUS (p = 0.000), which may be beneficial for TUS detection of EVs.

Invasive and noninvasive methods to diagnose portal hypertension and esophageal varices

Assessing the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension and esophageal varices is clinically important in cirrhosis. The reference standard techniques to assess the presence of portal hypertension and varices are the measurement of the hepatic vein pressure gradient and esophagogastroduodenoscopy, respectively. Some newer methods have shown a good performance, but none has been proven precise enough to replace hepatic vein pressure gradient measurement or esophagogastroduodenoscopy for the diagnosis of portal hypertension or the presence and grade of esophageal varices.

Prediction of esophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis: usefulness of three-dimensional MR elastography with echo-planar imaging technique

PURPOSE

To determine the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance (MR) elastography in comparison to spleen length and dynamic contrast material-enhanced (DCE) MR imaging in association with esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis by using endoscopy as the reference standard.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study received institutional review board approval, and informed consent was waived. One hundred thirty-nine patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent liver DCE MR imaging, including MR elastography, were included. Hepatic stiffness (HS) and spleen stiffness (SS) values assessed with MR elastography, as well as spleen length, were correlated with the presence of esophageal varices and high-risk varices by using Spearman correlation analysis. The diagnostic performance of MR elastography was compared with that of DCE MR imaging and combined assessment of MR elastography and DCE MR imaging by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. MR elastography reproducibility was assessed prospectively, with informed consent, in another 15 patients by using intraclass correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

There were significant positive linear correlations between HS, SS, and spleen length and the grade of esophageal varices (r = 0.46, r = 0.48, and r = 0.36, respectively; all P < .0001). HS and SS values (>4.81 kPa and >7.60 kPa, respectively) showed better performance than did spleen length in the association with esophageal varices (P = .0306 and P = .0064, respectively). Diagnostic performance of HS and SS in predicting high-risk varices was comparable to that of DCE MR imaging (P = .1282 and P = .1371, respectively). When MR elastography and DCE MR imaging were combined, sensitivity improved significantly (P = .0004). MR elastography was highly reproducible (intraclass correlation coefficient > 0.9).

CONCLUSION

HS and SS are associated with esophageal varices and showed better performance than did spleen length in assessing the presence of esophageal varices. MR elastography is comparable to DCE MR imaging in predicting the presence of esophageal varices and high-risk varices, but, when assessed in combination, sensitivity is higher.

Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) for the non-invasive prediction of esophageal varices

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Variceal bleeding is a dramatic and common complication of cirrhosis, and, therefore, endoscopy is recommended for the screening of EV (esophageal varices) in every cirrhotic. This study evaluates the capacity of APRI (aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index) in non-invasively predicting EV.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study evaluated cirrhotics for their APRI value and the presence of EV, with a cutoff point of 1, 3; platelet count, spleen diameter, PC/SD (platelet count/ spleen diameter ratio), aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Child-Pugh score and MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) score were also studied.

RESULTS

The study included 164 cirrhotics, 59.7% male, with a mean age of 56.7 years. APRI demonstrated a sensitivity of 64.7% (95% confidence interval-95%CI = 0.56-0.73), specificity of 72.7% (95%CI = 0.59-0.86), positive predictive value of 86.5% (95%CI = 0.79-0.94), negative predictive value of 43.2% (95%CI = 0.32-0.55). In the univariate analysis, platelet count, spleen diameter, Child and MELD scores, PC/SD and APRI were related to EV (p < 0.05). In the logistic regression, only platelet count and Child score were associated to EV (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

APRI is not an independent factor for the prediction of EV. Its sensitivity, specificity and predictive values are insufficient for the index to be used for the screening of EV in cirrhotics.