Predicting the Recurrence of Common Bile Duct Stones After ERCP Treatment with Automated Machine Learning Algorithms

Explainable coronary artery disease prediction model based on AutoGluon from AutoML framework

Objective

This study focuses on the innovative application of Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) technology in cardiovascular medicine to construct an explainable Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) prediction model to support the clinical diagnosis of CAD.

Methods

This study utilizes a combined data set of five public data sets related to CAD. An ensemble model is constructed using the AutoML open-source framework AutoGluon to evaluate the feasibility of AutoML in constructing a disease prediction model in cardiovascular medicine. The performance of the ensemble model is compared against individual baseline models. Finally, the disease prediction ensemble model is explained using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

Results

The experimental results show that the AutoGluon-based ensemble model performs better than the individual baseline models in predicting CAD. It achieved an accuracy of 0.9167 and an AUC of 0.9562 in 4-fold cross-bagging. SHAP measures the importance of each feature to the prediction of the model and explains the prediction results of the model.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates the feasibility and efficacy of AutoML technology in cardiovascular medicine and highlights its potential in disease prediction. AutoML reduces the barriers to model building and significantly improves prediction accuracy. Additionally, the integration of SHAP enhances model transparency and explainability, which is critical to ensuring model credibility and widespread adoption in cardiovascular medicine.

Predictive models in EUS/ERCP

Predictive models (PMs) in endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) have the potential to improve patient outcomes, enhance diagnostic accuracy, and guide therapeutic interventions. This review aims to summarize the current state of predictive models in ERCP and EUS and their clinical implications. To be considered useful in clinical practice a PM should be accurate, easy to perform, and may consider objective variables. PMs in ERCP estimate correct indication, probability of success, and the risk of developing adverse events. These models incorporate patient-related factors and technical aspects of the procedure. In the field of EUS, these models utilize clinical and imaging data to predict the likelihood of malignancy, presence of specific lesions, or risk of complications related to therapeutic interventions. Further research, validation, and refinement are necessary to maximize the utility and impact of these models in routine clinical practice.