Kenneth J. Rothman: Epidemiology. An introduction

Craniofacial morphological variability in orthodontic patients with non-syndromic orofacial clefts: an approach using geometric morphometrics

OBJECTIVES

Orofacial clefts are complex congenital anomalies that call for comprehensive treatment based on a thorough assessment of the anatomy. This study aims to examine the effect of cleft type on craniofacial morphology using geometric morphometrics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We evaluated lateral cephalograms of 75 patients with bilateral cleft lip and palate, 63 patients with unilateral cleft lip and palate, and 76 patients with isolated cleft palate. Generalized Procrustes analysis was performed on 16 hard tissue landmark coordinates. Shape variability was studied with principal component analysis. In a risk model approach, the first nine principal components (PC) were used to examine the effect of cleft type.

RESULTS

We found statistically significant differences in the mean shape between cleft types. The difference is greatest between bilateral cleft lip and palate and isolated cleft palate (distance of means 0.026, P = 0.0011). Differences between cleft types are most pronounced for PC4 and PC5 (P = 0.0001), which together account for 10% of the total shape variation. PC4 and PC5 show shape differences in the ratio of the upper to the lower face, the posterior mandibular height, and the mandibular angle.

CONCLUSIONS

Cleft type has a statistically significant but weak effect on craniofacial morphological variability in patients with non-syndromic orofacial clefts, mainly in the vertical dimension.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Understanding the effects of clefts on craniofacial morphology is essential to providing patients with treatment tailored to their specific needs. This study contributes to the literature particularly due to our risk model approach in lieu of a prediction model.

Interaction effect of midday napping duration and depressive symptoms on subjective memory impairment among older people in China: evidence from the China health and retirement longitudinal study database

BACKGROUND

Subjective memory impairment (SMI) is common in older people. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors influencing SMI among older people in China, with specific focus on the interaction effect of midday napping duration and depressive symptoms on the risk of SMI.

METHODS

Using a dataset representative of the Chinese population from a longitudinal study of health and retirement in China, subjects with SMI were screened using the question "how do you feel about your memory now?" and the Mini-Mental State Examination. A logistic regression model was applied to explore the factors affecting SMI. Additive and multiplicative models were used to analyze the interaction effect of midday napping duration and depressive symptoms on the risk of SMI.

RESULTS

We enrolled 8,254 subjects included and the incidence of SMI was 63.9%. Depressive symptoms, nap time, and physical activity were influencing factors of SMI. Midday napping duration and depressive symptoms had positive additive interaction effects on the risk of SMI. When extended-length naps and depressive symptoms coexisted, the risk of SMI was 1.06 times greater than that for either alone (RERI, relative excess risk due to interaction = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.07-0.43; AP, attributable proportion = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.01-0.23; S, synergy index = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.57-1.62). When short naps and depressive symptoms coexisted, the risk of SMI was 1.2 times higher than that for either alone (RERI = 0.12, 95% CI=-0.14-0.39; AP = 0.13, 95% CI=-0.07-0.22; S = 1.20, 95% CI = 0.79-1.82).

LIMITATIONS

Since this was a cross-sectional study, the cause-and-effect relationships between the associated variables cannot be inferred.

CONCLUSIONS

The interaction effect that exists between nap time and depressive symptoms in older people is important for the identification and early intervention of people at risk for SMI.

Can we predict discordant RECIST 1.1 evaluations in double read clinical trials?

Background

In lung clinical trials with imaging, blinded independent central review with double reads is recommended to reduce evaluation bias and the Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumor (RECIST) is still widely used. We retrospectively analyzed the inter-reader discrepancies rate over time, the risk factors for discrepancies related to baseline evaluations, and the potential of machine learning to predict inter-reader discrepancies.

Materials and methods

We retrospectively analyzed five BICR clinical trials for patients on immunotherapy or targeted therapy for lung cancer. Double reads of 1724 patients involving 17 radiologists were performed using RECIST 1.1. We evaluated the rate of discrepancies over time according to four endpoints: progressive disease declared (PDD), date of progressive disease (DOPD), best overall response (BOR), and date of the first response (DOFR). Risk factors associated with discrepancies were analyzed, two predictive models were evaluated.

Results

At the end of trials, the discrepancy rates between trials were not different. On average, the discrepancy rates were 21.0%, 41.0%, 28.8%, and 48.8% for PDD, DOPD, BOR, and DOFR, respectively. Over time, the discrepancy rate was higher for DOFR than DOPD, and the rates increased as the trial progressed, even after accrual was completed. It was rare for readers to not find any disease, for less than 7% of patients, at least one reader selected non-measurable disease only (NTL). Often the readers selected some of their target lesions (TLs) and NTLs in different organs, with ranges of 36.0-57.9% and 60.5-73.5% of patients, respectively. Rarely (4-8.1%) two readers selected all their TLs in different locations. Significant risk factors were different depending on the endpoint and the trial being considered. Prediction had a poor performance but the positive predictive value was higher than 80%. The best classification was obtained with BOR.

Conclusion

Predicting discordance rates necessitates having knowledge of patient accrual, patient survival, and the probability of discordances over time. In lung cancer trials, although risk factors for inter-reader discrepancies are known, they are weakly significant, the ability to predict discrepancies from baseline data is limited. To boost prediction accuracy, it would be necessary to enhance baseline-derived features or create new ones, considering other risk factors and looking into optimal reader associations.

The interaction between instrumental activities of daily living and dual sensory function on cognition among the elderly in China: A cross-sectional survey

To explore the interaction of instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and dual sensory function on cognition in the elderly. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in six general hospitals in China, from October 2022 to December 2022. Data collection included general information, IADLs scale, self-reported sensory function questionnaire, and mini-mental state examination (MMSE). Binary logistic regression was used to examine the association between factors and cognition. The interactive effect was evaluated by synergy index (S), relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), and attributable proportion due to interaction (AP). The odds ratio (OR) of IADLs decline in cognition is 4.412 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.633-5.358, p < 0.001); the OR of dual sensory difficulty on cognition is 2.502 (95% CI: 1.272-4.921, p = 0.008). The OR of interaction between IADLs decline and dual sensory difficulty on cognition is 13.737 (95% CI: 9.726-19.400, p < 0.001). RERI (95% CI) = 7.823 (3.230-12.417), AP (95% CI) = 0.570 (0.392-0.747), S (95% CI) = 2.593 (1.616-4.160). IADLs decline and dual sensory difficulty are associated with cognitive decline. IADLs decline and dual sensory difficulty have interaction with cognitive decline; the interaction is greater than the sum effect of those two on cognitive decline independently. Sensory and IADLs assessment can be used as early screening items for cognition among the elderly. In addition, protecting sensory function and maintaining IADLs in the elderly can help protect their cognition.

Carotid intima-media thickness and risk of mild cognitive impairment: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an early phase of cognitive decline signalling the beginning of severe neurological diseases. Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) has shown some correlation with MCI development. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of elevated cIMT on the risk of MCI in adults. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Google Scholar and CINAHL databases till 30 July 2021, with keywords: ('Carotid Intima-Media Thickness' OR 'cIMT' OR 'IMT' AND 'Cognitive Impairment' OR 'Cognition' OR 'Cognitive Decline' AND 'Mild Cognitive Impairment' OR 'MCI'). Pooled standardized mean difference (SMD)/odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were determined for factor-disease association using either fixed (when I² <50%) or random effect (when I² >50%) models. Eight studies involving 1,585 MCI cases and 6,700 normal subjects were included in our meta-analysis which showed no significant association of increased cIMT with the risk of MCI [SMD 1.17, 95% CI -0.09 to 2.42]. However, sensitivity analysis revealed an outlier study significantly affecting the effect size. On omitting the outlier study, the re-evaluated meta-analysis revealed a significant association of cIMT with the risk of MCI [SMD 0.52, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.78]. This significant association was also observed during subgroup analysis in Caucasian population [SMD 0.65, 95% CI 0.13 to 1.18] but not in Asian population [SMD 0.39, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.79]. Elevated cIMT poses a potential risk for MCI. However, more population-based studies are required to corroborate these findings.

Risk of Neurological Disorders in Patients With European Lyme Neuroborreliosis: A Nationwide, Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Lyme neuroborreliosis (LNB), caused by the tick-borne spirochetes of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species complex, has been suggested to be associated with a range of neurological disorders. In a nationwide, population-based cohort study, we examined the associations between LNB and dementia, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, motor neuron disease, epilepsy, and Guillain-Barré syndrome.

METHODS

We used national registers to identify all Danish residents diagnosed during 1986-2016 with LNB (n = 2067), created a gender- and age-matched comparison cohort from the general population (n = 20 670), and calculated risk estimates and hazard ratios.

RESULTS

We observed no long-term increased risks of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, motor neuron diseases, or epilepsy. However, within the first year, 8 (0.4%) of the LNB patients developed epilepsy, compared with 20 (0.1%) of the comparison cohort (difference, 0.3%; 95% confidence interval, .02-.6%). In the LNB group, 11 (0.5%) patients were diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome within the first year after LNB diagnosis, compared with 0 (0.0%) in the comparison cohort. After the first year, the risk of Guillain-Barré was not increased.

CONCLUSIONS

LNB patients did not have increased long-term risks of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, motor neuron diseases, epilepsy, or Guillain-Barré. Although the absolute risk is low, LNB patients might have an increased short-term risk of epilepsy and Guillain-Barré syndrome.