Climate change, flow regulation and land-use effects on the hydrology of the Peace-Athabasca-Slave System; findings from the Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative

An integrated knowledge synthesis of regional ambient monitoring in Canada's oil sands

The desire to document and understand the cumulative implications of oil sands (OS) development in the ambient environment of northeastern Alberta has motivated increased investment and release of information in the past decade. Here, we summarize the knowledge presented in the theme-based review papers in this special series, including air, surface water, terrestrial biology, and Indigenous community-based monitoring in order to (1) consolidate knowledge gained to date, (2) highlight key commonalities and gaps, and (3) leverage this knowledge to assess the state of integration in environmental monitoring efforts in the OS region and suggest next steps. Among air, water, and land studies, the individual reviews identified a clear focus on describing stressors, including primarily (1) contaminant emission, transport, transformation, deposition, and exposure, and (2) landscape disturbance. These emphases are generally partitioned by theme; air and water studies focus heavily on chemical stressors, whereas terrestrial monitoring focuses on biological change and landscape disturbance. Causal attribution is often stated as a high priority objective across all themes. However, studies often rely on spatial proximity to attribute cause to industrial activity, leaving causal attribution potentially confounded by spatial covariance of both OS- and non-OS-related stressors in the region, and by the complexity of interacting pathways between sources of environmental change and ecological receptors. Geospatial and modeling approaches are common across themes and may represent clear integration opportunities, particularly to help inform investigation-of-cause, but are not a replacement for robust field monitoring designs. Cumulative effects assessment remains a common focus of regional monitoring, but is limited in the peer-reviewed literature, potentially reflecting a lack of integration among monitoring efforts beyond narrow integrated interpretations of results. Addressing this requires greater emphasis on a priori integrated data collection and integrated analyses focused on the main residual exposure pathways, such as atmospheric deposition. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:428-441. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Attribution of Changes in Streamflow to Climate Change and Land Cover Change in Yangtze River Source Region, China

The quantitative attribution of changes in streamflow to climate change (CC) and land cover change (LCC) for the Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR), China, was assessed. We used a combination of the SWAT model along with the statistical technique one factor at a time (OFAT) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) to achieve the study objectives. The climate and hydrology data from 1961 to 2016 and land-cover maps of 5 years’ difference from 1985 to 2015 were used. The model was calibrated (1964–1989) using a land-cover map of 1985 and validated for 1990–2016. This validated model was further validated for all other land-cover maps used in this study. The SWAT model simulation showed that streamflow had been significantly influenced by CC compared to LCC using land-cover maps of 1985–1990, 1990–1995. However, the SWAT model simulations did not result in further changes in streamflow for land cover maps of 2000–2005, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015 because there have not been any significant changes in land cover after 2000 while the main contributing factor was climate change. The SWAT model simulations showed that the main driver of changes in streamflow in the Yangtze River Source Region is climate change. This study shows that the individual impacts are more critical than combined impacts for designing hydraulic structures, water resources planning and management, and decision-making policies at the regional/basin scale.

Water-Exchange Response of Downstream River–Lake System to the Flow Regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Hydrological regime changes in the river–lake system and their influences on the ecological environment downstream dams have attracted increasingly more attention all over the world. The Dongting lake downstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) in the Yangtze River has been experiencing a series of hydraulic and hydrological changes over the last decade. The hydrological and ecological influences of the TGD flow regulation on the Dongting river–lake system and its functional mechanism during the impounding periods remain extremely unclear. This study examines the hydrological changes in the Dongting river–lake system based on a 1D/2D coupled hydrodynamic model. In particular, the inflow boundary of the model with and without the TGD was applied with the outflow and inflow of the TGD, respectively, during the same regulation periods. The results show that the diverted flow from the Yangtze River into the Dongting lake and outflow from the lake back to the river drastically decreased during the impounding periods, especially in October. The decreased water exchange between the Yangtze River and the Dongting lake impaired the water residence capacity to some extent in the lake. Stage decrease in the lake area resulted in a significant reduction in the water volume of the Dongting lake with the same time percentage. In addition, the obvious drainage effect in Dongting lake due to the increased stage difference and current speed after the TGD operation was the essential cause of hydrological changes in the lake area. These results provide an improvement in the understanding of impoundment influences on the large river–lake system and give some practical information for ecological environment management in similar river–lake systems.

Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be a temperature-induced shift in precipitation from snowfall towards rain along with changes in precipitation intensity and snowmelt timing, resulting in alterations in the frequency and magnitude of peak flow events. This study examines the potential future changes in the frequency and severity of peak flow events in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada. The analysis is based on simulated flow data by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model driven by statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from the latest coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to an earlier period. The river flow is projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increase in peak flow, especially for low frequency events. Both stationary and non-stationary methods of peak flow analysis, performed at multiple points along the Athabasca River, show that projected changes in the 100-year peak flow event for the high emissions scenario by the 2080s range between 4% and 33% depending on the driving climate models and the statistical method of analysis. A closer examination of the results also reveals that the sensitivity of projected changes in peak flows to the statistical method of frequency analysis is relatively small compared to that resulting from inter-climate model variability.

Multiple threats and stressors to the Athabasca River Basin: What do we know so far?

Over the last five decades, the Athabasca River Basin in Alberta, Canada, has been subjected to a wide range of environmental stressors from diverse human developments. This has resulted in an escalation of government, academic, industry and community-based monitoring and research efforts. However, despite all the attention received, a comprehensive synthesis of what has been studied is lacking, in particular, in relation to the efforts examining single versus multiple stressors. Based on a systematic literature review, we found 386 publications from 1969 to 2018 on the Athabasca River focusing on single stressors (68.4%) compared to multiple stressors (31.6%). There was a significant shift in the focus of studies between the 1990s and present from assessing threats of pulp and paper developments to those related to oil sands activities, with studies most predominantly addressing chemical stressors. Despite these efforts, there remain significant knowledge gaps regarding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors, particularly on biological and ecological endpoints. Correspondingly, a wide range of contradictory conclusions were reported regarding the ecological, regulatory and societal significance of the reported environmental impacts, highlighting both the complexity and often lack of standardization of approaches used. This emphasizes the need for improved integration of monitoring and research activities that are hypothesis driven, have clear objectives, and are better aligned with environmental management processes and decisions.

Accumulated state assessment of the Peace-Athabasca-Slave River system

Effects-based analysis is a fundamental component of watershed cumulative effects assessment. This study conducted an effects-based analysis for the Peace-Athabasca-Slave River System, part of the massive Mackenzie River Basin, encompassing 20% of Canada's total land mass and influenced by cumulative contributions of the W.A.C. Bennett Dam (Peace River) and industrial activities including oil sands mining (Athabasca River). This study assessed seasonal changes in 1) Peace River water quality and quantity before and after dam development, 2) Athabasca River water quality and quantity before and after oil sands developments, 3) tributary inputs from the Peace and Athabasca Rivers to the Slave River, and 4) upstream to downstream differences in water quality in the Slave River. In addition, seasonal benchmarks were calculated for each river based on pre-perturbation post-perturbation data for future cumulative effects assessments. Winter discharge (January-March) from the Peace and Slave Rivers was significantly higher than before dam construction (pre-1967) (p < 0.05), whereas summer peak flows (May-July) were significantly lower than before the dam showing that regulation has significantly altered seasonal flow regimes. During spring freshet and summer high flows, the Peace River strongly influenced the quality of the Slave River, as there were no significant differences in loadings of dissolved N, total P (TP), total organic C (TOC), total As, total Mn, total V, and turbidity and specific conductance between these rivers. In the Athabasca River, TP and specific conductance concentrations increased significantly since before oil sands developments (1967-2010), whereas dissolved N and sulfate have increased after the oil sands developments (1977-2010). Recently, the Athabasca River had significantly higher concentrations of dissolved N, TP, TOC, dissolved sulfate, specific conductance, and total Mn than either the Slave or the Peace Rivers during the winter months. The transboundary nature of the Peace, Athabasca, and Slave River basins has resulted in fragmented monitoring and reporting of the state of these rivers, and a more consistent monitoring framework is recommended.