Spatial driving forces of dominant land use/land cover transformations in the Dongjiang River watershed, Southern China

Identification and Assessment of the Driving Forces behind Changes in the Foothill Landscape: Case Studies of the Mysłakowice and Jelenia Góra Communities in Poland

The main objective of this study was to determine the driving forces behind landscape change and the perceptions of change by the residents of selected research areas. The communities used for the study were Mysłakowice and Jelenia Góra, located in the Lower Silesia region in Poland. Mysłakowice is a rural community, and Jelenia Góra is an urban community. The landscape of both municipalities is dominated by forest-covered mountains surrounding dispersed built-up and agricultural areas. The time range of the analysis was 2005-2020, covering the period after Poland's accession to the European Union, and was divided into the following three time periods: 2005-2010, 2010-2015, and 2015-2020. The research methodology consisted of the following three stages: (1) the identification of landscape changes on the basis of land cover data and the calculation of the landscape change index (LCI), (2) the characterization and classification of the identified landscape changes, and (3) the identification of the driving forces of landscape changes through surveys with the residents of both municipalities. The results obtained based on the surveys were often consistent with the results from the GIS analysis. The respondents were able to identify the most important changes and proposed the driving forces affecting them. According to the residents of Mysłakowice and Jelenia Góra, the changes in the landscape between 2005 and 2020 were primarily the result of political and socio-economic driving forces, accompanied by forces from other groups. However, each time period was distinctive. The analysis showed which types of changes in the landscape were viewed positively and negatively by the people during the analyzed periods of time, and what the influence of the different driving forces was on the formation of changes in the landscape.

Integrating the Budyko framework with the emerging hot spot analysis in local land use planning for regulating surface evapotranspiration ratio

Land use planning regulates surface hydrological processes by adjusting land properties with varied evapotranspiration ratios. However, a dearth of empirical spatial information hampers the regulation of place-specific hydrological processes. Therefore, this study proposed a Local Land Use Planning framework for EvapoTranspiration Ratio regulations (ETR-LLUP), which was tested for the developments of spatially-varied land use strategies in the Dongjiang River Basin (DRB) in Southern China. With the first attempt at integrating the Emerging Hot Spots Analysis (EHSA) with the Budyko framework, the spatiotemporal trends of evapotranspiration ratios based on evaporative index and dryness index, from 1992 to 2018, were illustrated. Then, representative land-cover types in each sub-basin were defined using Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis, in two wet years (1998 and 2016) and three dry years (2004, 2009, and 2018), which in turn were identified using the Standard Precipitation Index. Finally, Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWRs) were used to detect spatially-varied relationships between land-cover proportions and evaporative index in both dry and wet climates. Results showed that the DRB was consistently a water-limited region from 1992 to 2018, and the situation was getting worse. We also identified the upper DRB as hotspots for hydrological management. Forests and croplands experienced increasingly water stress compared to other vegetation types. More importantly, the spatial results of GWR models enabled us to adjust basin land use by 1) expanding and contracting a combination of 'mosaic natural vegetation' and 'broadleaved deciduous trees' in the western and eastern parts of the basin, respectively; and 2) increasing 'broadleaved evergreen trees' in the upstream parts of the basin. These spatially-varied land use strategies based on the ETR-LLUP framework allow for place-specific hydrological management during both dry and wet climates.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Landscape Patterns and Their Driving Forces Under Optimal Granularity and the Extent at the County and the Environmental Functional Regional Scales

Research on the evolution and driving forces of landscape patterns can provide important support for ecological governance decision-making. However, the heterogeneity of landscape patterns at the microscale (grain size and extent) and the enforceability of the zoning scale at the macroscale deserve more attention. The optimal grain size (30 ×30 m) and the extent (500 m) for landscape pattern research were obtained by analyzing the fluctuation of landscape metrics and semivariogram models in this study. The research area was divided into environmental functional regions (EFRs), which were defined according to the main ecological functions and protection objectives of each region. The analysis results of land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) showed that land use transfer in the past 20 years occurred mainly between woodland and cultivated land at the county scale, but this was not always the case in EFRs. The results of the landscape pattern analysis showed that landscape fragmentation, aggregation, and heterogeneity increased at the county scale during 1999–2020. Moreover, except within agricultural environmental protection areas (AEP) and living environment guaranteed areas (LEG), the degree and the speed of landscape damage decreased by 2020, and the turning point occurred in 2006–2013. The analysis results of geographical detectors showed that the digital elevation mode (DEM) and GDP were the main driving factors in most regions. At the county scale, the average explanatory power of the selected factors increased by 13.27% and 16.16% in 2006–2013 and 2013–2020, respectively. Furthermore, the study area was divided into three categories according to the intensity of human disturbance. The areas with high human disturbance need to focus on increasing land-use intensification and strengthening the development in low-slope hill regions. The areas of moderate human disturbance need to focus on improving the connectivity of ecological patches and optimizing industrial structures. Attention should be given to the monitoring of natural drivers and policy support for ecological governance in low human disturbance areas. The methods and findings in this study can provide a reference for decision-makers to formulate land-use policies, especially for integration into relevant urban planning, such as the spatial planning of national land that is being widely implemented in China.

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Land-Use Changes and Conflicts between Cropland and Forest in the Mekong River Basin during 1990–2020

The Mekong River Basin (MRB) has experienced drastic and extensive land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) since the 1990s, including the conflicts between cropland and forest, yet remain quantitatively uninvestigated. With three decades (1990–2020) of land-use products, here we reveal the characteristics of LULCCs and the conflicts between cropland and forest in the MRB and its three sub-basins, i.e., upstream area (UA), midstream area (MA), and downstream area (DA). The four main results are as follows: (1) Since 1990, the dominated features are forest loss and cropland expansion in the MRB and show obvious sub-basin differences. (2) The LULCC was most active before 2000, with a comprehensive dynamic degree of almost 2%. Among them, construction land has the highest single dynamic degree (5%), especially in the DA, reaching 12%. (3) The key features of land-use transfer are the interconversions of forest and cropland, as well as cropland converted into construction land. About 18% (63,940 km2) of forest was reclaimed as cropland, and 17% (45,967 km2) of cropland was returned to forest in the past 31 years. (4) The conflict between cropland and forest was the most dominant LULCC, accounting for 86% of the MRB area. Overall, cropland expansion and forest loss (CEFL) were more dominant in the DA, while cropland fallow and forest restoration (CFFR) had an advantage in the MA. Indeed, CEFL was mainly seen in the plains below a 200 m elevation level, while CFFR tended to occur in the highlands. Our basin-scale study can enrich the existing pan-regional results of LULCCs, and facilitates the understanding of the dynamics and related mechanisms of CFER and CFFR in the tropics.

Spatial Transformation Characteristics and Conflict Measurement of Production-Living-Ecology: Evidence from Urban Agglomeration of China

The land development by human beings has changed from the initial small-scale and low-level transformation to the comprehensive utilization of large-scale and high-intensity implementations. The contradiction between production-living-ecology space (PLES) has become increasingly prominent while drawing land dividends. As one of the important birthplaces of Chinese civilization and the ecological barrier in the northern region, the rapid urbanization and industrialization of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) make the ecological environment very fragile, and the imbalance of land and space development is extremely serious. Therefore, according to the multifunctional characteristics of land use, this paper establishes a classification system of production space (PS), living space (LS) and ecology space (ES), and discusses the spatiotemporal evolution and conflict distribution characteristics of the PLES with the help of the transfer matrix and spatial conflict index (SCI). The results are as follows. In 1990–2020, agricultural production space (APS), grassland ecology space (GES) and other ecology space (OES) yielded the largest proportion of PLES in the YRB. However, compared with 1990, the area of these spatial types decreased in 2020, while the urban living space (ULS) expanded rapidly. The distribution pattern of PLES was generally consistent, and the transformation between PLES in Ningxia, central Inner Mongolia, Loess Plateau and downstream areas was relatively intense. The conflict index of PLES showed an upward trend, but it was generally in a controllable range. The stable and controllable areas were concentrated in the upstream of the urban agglomeration, and the midstream and downstream were basic out of control and seriously out of control, respectively.

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Changes in Watershed Landscape Pattern and Its Influencing Factors in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas Using Satellite Data

Analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of landscape pattern changes in watersheds around big cities is essential for understanding the ecological consequence of urbanization and provides a basic reference for the watershed management. This study used a land-use transition matrix and landscape indices to explore the spatiotemporal change of land use and landscape pattern over Liuxihe River basin of Guangzhou in the southeast of China from 1980 to 2015 with multitemporal Landsat satellite data in response to the rapid urbanization process. Primary temporal and spatial influencing factors were first quantitatively identified through grey relation analysis (calculating correlation degree between land use changes and influencing factors) and Geodetector (detecting landscape spatial heterogeneity and its driving factors), respectively. Considerable spatial and temporal differences in land use and landscape pattern changes were observed herein, thus determining the influencing factors of these differences in the Liuxihe River basin. These changes were characterized by a large increase in construction land converted from cropland, particularly in the middle and lower reaches of the basin from 2000 to 2010, causing dramatic fragmentation and homogenization of the landscape pattern there. Meanwhile, the landscape pattern gradually transitioned from an agricultural land use dominant landscape to a construction land use dominant landscape in these regions. Furthermore, the rapid growth of a nonagricultural population and the transformation of industry primarily caused the temporal changes of landscape pattern, and the landscape spatial heterogeneity was mainly caused by the interaction of complicated geomorphology and anthropogenic activities in different spatial locations, particularly after 2000. This study not only provides an improved approach to quantifying the main spatiotemporal influencing factors of landscape pattern changes during different time periods, but also offers a reference for decision-makers to formulate optimal strategies on ecological protection and urban sustainable development of different regions in this study area.

Spatiotemporal scale and integrative methods matter for quantifying the driving forces of land cover change

Land cover change (LCC) is a major part of environmental change. Exploring the spatiotemporal differences in LCC and the driving factors is the basis for comprehensive research on landscape planning, and it is of great significance for future effective and sustainable landscape management. In this respect, cross-scale research with integrated methods is worthy of more attention, although some studies have discussed the driving forces of LCCs at either regional or local scale. We combined a structural equation model and a mixed-effects model for quantifying the driving forces of LCCs across different scales in the Loess Plateau (China), which is a typical region that has experienced significant LCCs over recent decades. The impacts of biophysical and socioeconomic factors on different change trajectories (agricultural intensification, urbanization and ecological restoration) were found to be inconsistent at different temporal and spatial scales. We found that topography had a negative effect on agricultural intensification during 1990-2010 and on urbanization during 1990-2000, but it had a positive effect on ecological restoration during 2000-2015 at the regional scale. Moreover, although there was no significant impact from economic development on any type of LCCs at the regional scale, its important influence could be seen in some of the township categories. Therefore, the path and scale dependence of driving forces is an important consideration in landscape planning and management to accommodate local conditions and fine-tuned analysis as decision-making supports.

Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China

Land use change has a significant impact on the structure and function of ecosystems, and the transformation of ecosystems affects the mode and efficiency of land use, which reflects a mutual interaction relationship. The prediction and simulation of future land use change can enhance the foresight of land use planning, which is of great significance to regional sustainable development. In this study, future land use changes are characterized under an ecological optimization scenario based on the grey prediction (1,1) model (GM) and a future land use simulation (FLUS) model. In addition, the ecosystem service value (ESV) of Anhui Province from 1995 to 2030 were estimated based on the revised estimation model. The results indicate the following details: (1) the FLUS model was used to simulate the land use layout of Anhui Province in 2018, where the overall accuracy of the simulation results is high, indicating that the FLUS model is applicable for simulating future land use change; (2) the spatial layout of land use types in Anhui Province is stable and the cultivated land has the highest proportion. The most significant characteristic of future land use change is that the area of cultivated land continues to decrease while the area of built-up land continues to expand; and (3) the ESV of Anhui Province is predicted to increase in the future. The regulating service is the largest ESV contributor, and water area is the land use type with the highest proportion of ESV. These findings provide reference for the formulation of sustainable development policies of the regional ecological environment.

Land Use Change Impacts on Hydrology in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China

The objectives of this study were to assess land use changes and their hydrological impacts in the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was employed to evaluate the impacts of land use changes. The Cellular Automata-Markov model was used to predict a land use map in 2038. Streamflow under each land use state was simulated by the SWAT model. The results showed that there was a significant expansion of agriculture area at the expense of large areas of grassland, wetland, and forest during 1975–2000. The land use changes during the period of 1975 to 2000 had decreased the water yield (3.5%), surface runoff (1.7%), and baseflow (19%) while they increased the annual evapotranspiration (2.1%). For impacts of individual land use type, the forest proved to have reduced streamflow in the flood season (10%–28%) and increased surface runoff in the drought season (20%–38%). Conversely, grassland, dry land, and paddy land scenarios resulted in increase of streamflow during summer months by 7%–37% and a decrease of streamflow in the cold seasons by 11.7%–59.7%. When the entire basin was changed to wetland, streamflow reduced over the whole year, with the largest reduction during January to March. The 2038 land use condition is expected to increase the annual water yield, surface runoff and wet season flow, and reduce evapotranspiration and baseflow. These results could help to improve sustainable land use management and water utilization in the NRB.

Conflict or coordination? Assessing land use multi-functionalization using production-living-ecology analysis

Land use multi-functionalization (LUMF) promotes efficient and sustainable land use, reduces land pressures from limited land resources, and elevates urbanization quality in the midst of the increasingly tense relationship between humans and nature. In this study, we propose a new conceptual index system using system science, entropy weight method, triangle model, and coupling coordination degree model for LUMF assessment as well as an analysis of the relationship among land use sub-functions. This framework was applied to six cities in the urban agglomeration around Hangzhou Bay (UAHB) in eastern China's Zhejiang Province using twenty-two indicators in terms of production-living-ecology analysis during 2004-2013. The UAHB LUMF level increased over the past ten years, being affected by the designated functions and the "planning effect" for the six cities in the UAHB. The relationships among land use sub-functions in the six cities displayed strong variabilities at the spatial and temporal scales. The overall patterns of the relative importance of these sub-functions also differed from each other. Our research also shows that urban development in the UAHB had focused more on economic growth than on ecological protection and the regional development in the UAHB's six cities was unbalanced. Therefore, we suggest urban and land use management need to embrace more integrated planning and design in order to maintain efficient and sustainable land use.