Drought index predictability for historical and future periods across the Southern plain of Nepal Himalaya

Identification of suitable habitat for Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow in moist temperate forest using maxent modelling technique

Conservation of any species necessitates knowledge of its biology and natural history, as well as prospective locations or newer adaptive landscapes where the species can survive and thrive. This study presents habitat suitability and local conservation status of Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow in moist temperate forest of Hazara division, Pakistan. Data was collected through field surveys based on 363 samples from field, topographical and bioclimatic variables. In the present study, we employed the MaxEnt model exclusively for each tree species along with 23 independent or environment variables (19 bioclimatic and 4 topographic). The jackknife test was used to demonstrate the significance of variables with the highest gain, and it was found that overall tree cover, annual temperature range was the factors with the highest gain, while slope was amongst the least important. The MaxEnt model produced high accuracy for each tree species, with receiver operating characteristic (ROC), area under the curve (AUC), training mean testing values for Taxus wallichiana was 0.966 followed by 0.944 for Abies pindrow. Local conservation status of Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow was evaluated using IUCN criteria 2001. Taxus wallichiana was declared critically endangered locally as the population size reduced by 87%. In contrast, Abies pindrow was declared as endangered as population size reduced by 69% falling under endangered criteria A of IUCN. The decline in population size of Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow species were due to human cause anthropogenic activities such as exploitation and loss of habitat, the extent of occurrence, and slow regeneration of tree species. Results and field-based observation revealed that suitable habitat modeling showed unsuitable (0.0–0.2), less suitable (0.2–0.4), moderately (0.4–0.6), highly (0.6–0.7), and very highly (0.7–1.0) suitable habitat for Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow. Results also revealed that both species were distributed irregularly in the moist temperate forest of Hazara division. Habitat suitability of Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow can be considered one of most significant points toward conserving these tree species. Habitat loss is a major threat to their occurrence, which should be overcome by ensuring the protection of suitable habitat and conservation approaches. Considering the species ecological and economic value, it is essential to understand how the species distribution may vary as a result of climate change to establish effective conservation policies. This study also includes significant environmental elements that influence species distribution, which could help locate regions where the species could be planted. Forest tree species require effective, scientific, and long-term management and conservation techniques in the study area. Furthermore, the formulation and implementation of protective laws and policies are required to conserve and protect both the conifer species.