Patterns in Female Age at First Marriage and Tajik Armed Conflict

Wedding Amidst War? Armed Conflict and Female Teen Marriage in Azerbaijan

Does armed conflict influence female teen marriage? Despite increasing attention to early marriage, its drivers and consequences, quantitative research on whether teen unions are affected by situations of armed violence is minimal. This paper addresses this gap by examining the relationship between exposure to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh over 1992-1996 and teen marriage outcomes in Azerbaijan. Using data from the 2006 Demographic and Health Survey and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, I compare cohorts at risk of teen union before and during the conflict climax years with a modelling strategy that exploits information on forced displacement and spatial variation in conflict violence. Results show that experiencing war violence in adolescent ages, its intensity and frequency are associated with a lower risk of teen marriage. Reductions are largest for the cohorts who spent most of their adolescent ages under conflict and who were displaced as a result. For never-migrant conflict-affected girls, declines extend to the youngest cohorts. The combination of age at conflict occurrence and the experience of disruptive events like forced migration matters for teen marriage outcomes.

The ties that bind? Marriage formation, consanguinity and war in Lebanon and Palestine

The paper explores the link between the civil war (1975–1990) in Lebanon and the first Intifada (1987–1993) in Palestine, and women’s transition to marriage and consanguinity. It marries the literature on demographic behaviour and social ties, and contributes to nascent literature on demographic behaviour in times of war extended to consanguinity. It uses a mixed methods approach using two nationally representative data sets- one from each country, complemented with in-depth interviews (n = 55). Estimation methods are a discrete-time hazard model for entry into marriage and a discrete-time competing risks model for type of marriage. Findings provide empirical support for a war-induced effect on marriage formation, with a conflict-induced educational differential, especially for higher educated women in both settings. In times of war, Lebanese, and Palestinian women and their families resort to marriage as a protective strategy, especially when further educational pursuit is no longer deemed relevant because of both actual and perceived threats to women’s safety. The strategies that women devise however, differ across both countries. Women in Lebanon strategize out-group marriages to diversify resources by establishing new alliances through marriage, while in-group marriages decline. Palestinian women on the other hand, show more heterogeneity, with some women maintaining existing familial bonds through in-group marriages, while others diversify resources through out-group marriages to facilitate new alliances. The differences in women’s strategies in each setting is also indicative of other context contingent conflict-induced mechanisms. These operate through distorted sex-ratios against women in Lebanon, and through the breakage of kin networks through migration/displacement in Palestine.

The Consequences of the Tajikistani Civil War for Abortion and Miscarriage

Although a great deal of attention is paid to reproductive health during violent conflicts, the literature is sparse on the consequences of conflict for abortion and miscarriage. This research provides an analysis of a recent historical case: the 1992-1997 civil war in Tajikistan, using the female questionnaire of the 2007 Tajik Living Standards Survey to examine a subsample of 1,445 women surveyed who had reached menarche during or after the war and had been pregnant at least once by the time of the survey. The analysis leverages the uneven geographical scope of conflict events during the civil war to pinpoint women's exposure to violence, measured by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. The results show that for women who had reached menarche during or after the civil war, exposure to conflict events increases the likelihood of ever experiencing miscarriage, but not abortion. Including a spatial lag operator reveals that there were also spillover effects for abortion, in which women who were in a broader region of uncertainty were more likely to induce an abortion. These findings highlight the role of institutional changes in affecting pregnancy loss during and after civil war.

Suppression, Spikes, and Stigma: How COVID-19 Will Shape International Migration and Hostilities toward It

Border closures associated with COVID-19 constitute a response to an exogenous shock unrelated to migration. In this IMR Dispatch, we argue that the impact of policies initially implemented to halt movement and curb the spread of the disease will nonetheless have medium- and longer term consequences for international migration. Specifically, we argue that these initial border restrictions have set in motion demographic and sociological processes that are likely to culminate in greater support for restricting future migration. Based on demographic evidence, we posit that after extended suppression of migration, OECD countries and Russia will see a migration spike, akin to a “baby boom” for fertility rebounds. Drawing on sociological theory and research, we hypothesize that these spikes in migration will increase anti-immigrant sentiment among native-born residents in destination countries and mobilize political support for reintroducing restrictive migration policies — triggering a feedback loop. In an effort to help facilitate future research and empirical tests of our model, we identify key concepts, processes, and data sources for the analysis of the pandemic’s impact on international migration over time.

Persistence and Change in Marriage Practices among Syrian Refugees in Jordan

Early marriage, which is associated with a wide range of negative health and socioeconomic outcomes, may be a response to conflict and displacement. Since the onset of the Syrian conflict in 2011, there has been considerable attention to reports of high and potentially increasing rates of early marriage among Syrian refugee women. Using nationally representative survey data from Jordan in 2016 and Syria in 2009, as well as qualitative interviews with Syrian refugee youth in Jordan, we examine changes in age at marriage and drivers of early marriage. We find no evidence of an increase in early marriage rates after refugees' arrival to Jordan. Rates of early marriage among the Syrians now in Jordan were higher than preconflict national rates and have remained similar postdisplacement, although poverty and security concerns have created new drivers for accelerating marriage for young women. Other dynamics of the Syrian marriage market in displacement may act to decelerate marriage rates, including declining rates of consanguinity and inability to meet marriage costs. Analysis of early marriage in displacement must be placed within the context of change in marriage practices among refugees more broadly.

Intimate Partner Violence in Tajikistan: Risk and Protective Factors

Background: Violence against women perpetrated by intimate partners (IPV) is a sufficiently serious social issue in the countries of the former Soviet Union to warrant focused attention and sociological research. In spite of recent advances in the understanding of the prevalence and detrimental consequences of IPV worldwide, little is known about IPV in transitional countries, where very few studies have been carried out. Investigating IPV against women in different societies and analyzing micro- and macro-level factors (i.e., social, economic, psychological, etc.) that contribute to IPV is important for social scientists in order to understand the nature of IPV and to combat it. Objectives: The aims of the study were to examine the prevalence of physical IPV in Tajikistan and discuss the risk factors for IPV in this country of the former Soviet Union. Method: This research is based on the data from the Tajik Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2012. SPSS 21.0 and STATA 13 were used for statistical analysis, which involved a multistep process and included a series of statistical methods such as a univariate descriptive analysis of IPV predictor and outcome variables and a multilevel regression model for survey data to estimate the effect of individual- and community-level characteristics and to take into consideration the multilevel nature of IPV. The analyses rely upon binomial and ordered logistic regression models. Results: The results of this study demonstrate that physical IPV is not a rare phenomenon in Tajikistan where 18% of women in this region have experienced IPV at some point of their lives, and the rate of lifetime occurrence of IPV is 17.5%. While women's older age and living in rural area are protective factors against IPV in Tajikistan, risk factors for physical IPV include higher number of children, household wealth, women's employment, partner's alcohol consumptions, witnessing IPV in women's family of origin, justification of IPV by women, and partner's controlling behavior. Conclusion: The current study provides evidence that a significant number of women are physically abused by their intimate partners in Tajikistan. In the context of the significant structural changes and the strengthening of patriarchal ideology resulted by the collapse if the Soviet Union, an examination of the risk factors of IPV in this region is well-timed and important for the understanding of gender relations and gender-based violence.

The impact of armed conflict on adolescent transitions: a systematic review of quantitative research on age of sexual debut, first marriage and first birth in young women under the age of 20 years

Background

Young women in conflict-affected regions are at risk of a number of adverse outcomes as a result of violence, economic deterioration and the breakdown of community structures and services. This paper presents the findings of a systematic review of quantitative literature reporting how key sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes among young women under the age of 20 years are affected by exposure to armed conflict; namely, sexual debut, first marriage and first birth. Increases in these outcomes among young women are all associated with potential negative public health consequences. It also examines and documents possible causal pathways for any changes seen.

Methods

To fit with our inclusion criteria, all reviewed studies included outcomes for comparable populations not exposed to conflict either temporally or spatially. A total of 19 studies with results from 21 countries or territories met our inclusion criteria; seven presented findings on marriage, four on fertility and eight on both of these outcomes. Only one study reporting on sexual debut met our criteria.

Results

Findings show clear evidence of both declines and increases in marriage and childbirth among young women in a range of conflict-affected settings. Several studies that showed increases in marriage below the age of 20 years reported that such increases were concentrated in the younger teenagers. Trends in fertility were predominantly driven by marriage patterns. Suggested causal pathways for the changes observed could be grouped into three categories: involuntary, gender and psycho-social and economic and material factors.

Conclusion

The review reveals a paucity of literature on the impact of conflict on SRH outcomes of young women. Further quantitative and qualitative studies are needed to explore how conflict influences SRH events in young women over both the short- and longer-term.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-2868-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.