Dispersal asymmetries and deleterious mutations influence metapopulation persistence and range dynamics

Environmental variation and biotic interactions limit adaptation at ecological margins: lessons from rainforest Drosophila and European butterflies

Models of local adaptation to spatially varying selection predict that maximum rates of evolution are determined by the interaction between increased adaptive potential owing to increased genetic variation, and the cost genetic variation brings by reducing population fitness. We discuss existing and new results from our laboratory assays and field transplants of rainforest Drosophila and UK butterflies along environmental gradients, which try to test these predictions in natural populations. Our data suggest that: (i) local adaptation along ecological gradients is not consistently observed in time and space, especially where biotic and abiotic interactions affect both gradient steepness and genetic variation in fitness; (ii) genetic variation in fitness observed in the laboratory is only sometimes visible to selection in the field, suggesting that demographic costs can remain high without increasing adaptive potential; and (iii) antagonistic interactions between species reduce local productivity, especially at ecological margins. Such antagonistic interactions steepen gradients and may increase the cost of adaptation by increasing its dimensionality. However, where biotic interactions do evolve, rapid range expansion can follow. Future research should test how the environmental sensitivity of genotypes determines their ecological exposure, and its effects on genetic variation in fitness, to predict the probability of evolutionary rescue at ecological margins. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.

Size-dependent movement explains why bigger is better in fragmented landscapes

Body size is a fundamental trait known to allometrically scale with metabolic rate and therefore a key determinant of individual development, life history, and consequently fitness. In spatially structured environments, movement is an equally important driver of fitness. Because movement is tightly coupled with body size, we expect habitat fragmentation to induce a strong selection pressure on size variation across and within species. Changes in body size distributions are then, in turn, expected to alter food web dynamics. However, no consensus has been reached on how spatial isolation and resource growth affect consumer body size distributions. Our aim was to investigate how these two factors shape the body size distribution of consumers under scenarios of size-dependent and size-independent consumer movement by applying a mechanistic, individual-based resource-consumer model. We also assessed the consequences of altered body size distributions for important ecosystem traits such as resource abundance and consumer stability. Finally, we determined those factors that explain most variation in size distributions. We demonstrate that decreasing connectivity and resource growth select for communities (or populations) consisting of larger species (or individuals) due to strong selection for the ability to move over longer distances if the movement is size-dependent. When including size-dependent movement, intermediate levels of connectivity result in increases in local size diversity. Due to this elevated functional diversity, resource uptake is maximized at the metapopulation or metacommunity level. At these intermediate levels of connectivity, size-dependent movement explains most of the observed variation in size distributions. Interestingly, local and spatial stability of consumer biomass is lowest when isolation and resource growth are high. Finally, we highlight that size-dependent movement is of vital importance for the survival of populations or communities within highly fragmented landscapes. Our results demonstrate that considering size-dependent movement is essential to understand how habitat fragmentation and resource growth shape body size distributions-and the resulting metapopulation or metacommunity dynamics-of consumers.

Comparing the consequences of natural selection, adaptive phenotypic plasticity, and matching habitat choice for phenotype-environment matching, population genetic structure, and reproductive isolation in meta-populations

Organisms commonly experience significant spatiotemporal variation in their environments. In response to such heterogeneity, different mechanisms may act that enhance ecological performance locally. However, depending on the nature of the mechanism involved, the consequences for populations may differ greatly. Building on a previous model that investigated the conditions under which different adaptive mechanisms (co)evolve, this study compares the ecological and evolutionary population consequences of three very different responses to environmental heterogeneity: matching habitat choice (directed gene flow), adaptive plasticity (associated with random gene flow), and divergent natural selection. Using individual‐based simulations, we show that matching habitat choice can have a greater adaptive potential than plasticity or natural selection: it allows for local adaptation while protecting genetic polymorphism despite global mating or strong environmental changes. Our simulations further reveal that increasing environmental fluctuations and unpredictability generally favor the emergence of specialist genotypes but that matching habitat choice is better at preventing local maladaptation by individuals. This confirms that matching habitat choice can speed up the genetic divergence among populations, cause indirect assortative mating via spatial clustering, and hence even facilitate sympatric speciation. This study highlights the potential importance of directed dispersal in local adaptation and speciation, stresses the difficulty of deriving its operation from nonexperimental observational data alone, and helps define a set of ecological conditions which should favor its emergence and subsequent detection in nature.

Local Adaptation Interacts with Expansion Load during Range Expansion: Maladaptation Reduces Expansion Load

The biotic and abiotic factors that facilitate or hinder species range expansions are many and complex. We examine the impact of two genetic processes and their interaction on fitness at expanding range edges: local maladaptation resulting from the presence of an environmental gradient and expansion load resulting from increased genetic drift at the range edge. Results from spatially explicit simulations indicate that the presence of an environmental gradient during range expansion reduces expansion load; conversely, increasing expansion load allows only locally adapted populations to persist at the range edge. Increased maladaptation reduces the speed of range expansion, resulting in less genetic drift at the expanding front and more immigration from the range center, therefore reducing expansion load at the range edge. These results may have ramifications for species being forced to shift their ranges because of climate change or other anthropogenic changes. If rapidly changing climate leads to faster expansion as populations track their shifting climatic optima, populations may suffer increased expansion load beyond previous expectations.

Influences of individual phenotypic traits on the habitat preferences of the sand fiddler crab, Uca pugilator

Recognizing which phenotypic traits are predictors for habitat choice can have important implications for understanding population dynamics. This study determined whether body size, sex, activity level, or origin habitat affected the preference of the fiddler crab, Uca pugilator, in selecting either a marsh or open mudflat, two habitats differing in risk level and food availability. Combining field and laboratory experiments, this study indicated a significant difference in body size and activity level of crabs between habitats. Further investigation of phenotypic dependency on habitat preference resulted in interactions between origin habitat and carapace width and activity level. When split by origin habitat, habitat preference for the open mudflat was predicted by body size for crabs originating from the open mudflat and by activity level for the crabs originating from the Spartina marsh. These results suggest that, for U. pugilator, body size plays a large role in the preference for exposed habitat.