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Li J, Li X, Lei M, Li W, Chen W, Ma T, Gao Y, Ye Z, Li Z. A prediction model for worsening diabetic retinopathy after panretinal photocoagulation. Diabetol Metab Syndr 2022; 14:124. [PMID: 36028852 PMCID: PMC9419399 DOI: 10.1186/s13098-022-00892-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 08/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND As one of the severe complications of diabetes mellitus, diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the leading cause of blindness in the working age worldwide. Although panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) was standard treatment, PRP-treated DR still has a high risk of progression. Hence, this study aimed to assess the risk factors and establish a model for predicting worsening diabetic retinopathy (DR-worsening) within five years after PRP. METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy or proliferative diabetic retinopathy and treated with PRP were included, and those patients were randomly assigned to either a training or validation cohort. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen potential risk factors for DR-worsening in the training cohort. Then the model was established after including significant independent risk factors and further validated using discrimination and calibration. RESULTS A total of 271 patients were included, and 56.46% of patients had an outcome of DR-worsening. In the training cohort (n = 135), age (odds ratio [OR] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.98), baseline best corrected visual acuity (logMAR) (OR = 10.74, 95% CI 1.84-62.52), diabetic nephropathy (OR = 9.32, 95% CI 1.49-58.46), and hyperlipidemia (OR = 3.34, 95% CI 1.05-10.66) were screened out as the independent risk factors, which were incorporated into the predictive model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration slope in the training and validation cohort were 0.79, 0.96 (95% CI 0.60-1.31), and 0.79, 1.00 (95% CI 0.66-1.34), respectively. Two risk groups were developed depending on the best cut-off value of the predicted probability, and the actual probability was 34.90% and 82.79% in the low-risk and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS This study developed and internally validated a new model to predict the probability of DR-worsening after PRP treatment within five years. The model can be used as a rapid risk assessment system for clinical prediction of DR-worsening and identify individuals at a high risk of DR-worsening at an early stage and prescribe additional treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinglan Li
- Medical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China
- Department of Ophthalmology, The First Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | - Xuanlong Li
- Medical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China
- Department of Ophthalmology, The First Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | | | - Wanyue Li
- Medical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China
- Department of Ophthalmology, The First Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | - Wenqian Chen
- Department of Ophthalmology, The First Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | - Tianju Ma
- Department of Ophthalmology, The First Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | - Yi Gao
- Department of Ophthalmology, The First Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | - Zi Ye
- Department of Ophthalmology, The First Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China
| | - Zhaohui Li
- Department of Ophthalmology, The First Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China
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