Serum progesterone trend after day of transfer predicts live birth in fresh IVF cycles

Independent value of PMOI on hCG day in predicting pregnancy outcomes in IVF/ICSI cycles

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine whether, on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) injection, the progesterone to number of mature oocytes index (PMOI) can be used alone or together with other parameters in a fresh embryo transfer in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycle to predict pregnancy outcome.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of all couples who underwent a clinical pregnancy and received a fresh IVE/ICSI cycle at a single large reproductive medical center between June 2019 and March 2022. The study involved a total of 1239 cycles. To analyze risk factors associated with pregnancy outcomes on the day of HCG injection, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used. The area under the curve (AUC) was determined, and PMOI and other factors were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The clinical pregnancy rate was significantly higher in group A (60.76%) than in the other groups (Group B: 52.92% and Group C:47.88%, respectively, p =0.0306). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression revealed that PMOI levels were significantly correlated with the probability of pregnancy outcome, independent of other risk factors. More importantly, PMOI levels independently predict the occurrence of pregnancy outcome, comparable to the model combining age. The optimal serum PMOI cutoff value for pregnancy outcome was 0.063 ug/L.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that PMOI levels have an independent predictive value for pregnancy outcome in fresh IVF/ICSI cycles.

Adverse impact of elevated progesterone levels on human chorionic gonadotropin trigger day on blastocyst transfer outcomes in gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist cycles

OBJECTIVE

Dose an elevated serum progesterone (P) level on the human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) trigger day have a negative effect on clinical pregnancy outcomes for embryos transferred at different stages of development in long-acting gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRHa) in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET) cycles?

STUDY DESIGN

This was a noninterventional, retrospective, observational, single-centre cohort study. A total of 1951 patients received long-acting GnRHa for pituitary downregulation in IVF-ET cycles at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from January 2018 to December 2020. The serum P levels on the day of hCG administration were measured, together with other cycle parameters, to explore the relationship between P levels and the clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) of different embryos transferred.

RESULTS

When the serum P level on the hCG day was higher than 1.5 ng/mL, the CPR did not decrease significantly. There was no correlation between the CPR of cleavage-stage embryo transfer and the serum P level on the hCG day. In addition, the interaction analysis suggested that the CPR of patients undergoing blastocyst transfer decreased as serum P levels on the hCG day increased. Progesterone levels on the day of hCG administration were closely related to the CPR of blastocyst transfer rather than cleavage-stage embryo transfer.

CONCLUSION

An increased serum P level on the day of hCG administration did not affect the CPR of cleavage-stage embryo transfer, but it reduced the CPR of blastocyst transfer cycles.

A validated prediction score for having two or more embryos for cryopreservation following freeze-all IVF cycles: an analysis utilizing SART CORS database

PURPOSE

To develop and validate a prediction score for having 2 or more embryos cryopreserved following an IVF cycle without a fresh transfer such that an embryo selection method may be applicable. We also developed a counseling tool on the probability of not having any embryos following an IVF cycle without a fresh transfer.

METHODS

We split the data into a development set and a validation set by region within the USA using a coin flip approach and subsequently performed a logistic regression model to identify factors most predictive of cryopreservation of 2 or more embryos in the development set. This model was validated in the validation set. Subsequently, a clinical prediction score was derived using the model coefficients and the predictive accuracy measured with the concordance (c) statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 31,537 potential freeze-all cycles were reported to the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology in 2014. Of these, 57.87% produced and cryopreserved two or more embryos. We identified that age, AMH, and the number of eggs retrieved were the most significant predictors of having 2 or more embryos cryopreserved with a validated c-statistic of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.83 to 0.85). A clinical prediction score was derived from the model. 28.9% of freeze-all cycles had no embryos created from the IVF cycle despite a cycle start and an egg retrieval. The number of eggs retrieved was the most significant predictor of having no embryos available for a transfer, with a c-statistic of 0.80 when modeled as the only predictor variable.

CONCLUSION

We derived counseling tools with acceptable discrimination for use in clinical practice (c-statistics > 0.7). Our study further suggests that the number of eggs retrieved from an IVF cycle is most predictive of having 2 or more embryos cryopreserved and not having any embryos after an IVF cycle, suggesting that clinicians should strive to optimize oocyte yield especially in poor prognosis patients. The probability of having two more embryos cryopreserved in a freeze-all IVF cycle such that an embryo selection method is applicable can be predicted with acceptable precision prior to the IVF cycle and excellent precision following egg retrieval using the prediction score.

Additional luteal support might improve IVF outcomes in patients with low progesterone level in middle luteal phase following a GnRH agonist protocol

AIM

The purpose of the study was to explore the efficacy of additional luteal support (ALS) for patients with low progesterone (P4) level in the middle luteal phase.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 1401 women who underwent their first in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment with a GnRH agonist protocol was analyzed. Patients were divided into five groups according to P4 level in the middle luteal phase (group I>40ng/mL, group II 31-40 ng/mL, group III 21-30 ng/mL, group IV 11-20 ng/mL and group V 0-10 ng/mL. Besides routine luteal support, the group V was offered with additional oral dydrogesterone 10 mg twice daily to HCG test (ALS group).

RESULTS

After a multiple regression analysis, a similar higher hCG positive rate, clinic pregnancy rate and lower early pregnancy loss rate were achieved in group I and group V. In contrast to group I, group IV demonstrated significant lower HCG positive rate (OR = 0.65 [0.43; 0.99], p = .05), lower clinic pregnancy rate (OR = 0.60 [0.41; 0.88], p < .01) and significant higher early pregnancy loss rate (OR = 1.80 [1.08; 2.99], p = .02). The group III also resulted in significant lower clinic pregnancy rate (OR = 0.56 [0.36; 0.87], p = .01). The live birth rate tended to be higher in group I and group V but without a significant difference.

CONCLUSION

Following agonist protocol, additional luteal support might improve IVF outcomes in patients with low serum P4 level in the middle luteal phase.

Early prediction of live birth for assisted reproductive technology patients: a convenient and practical prediction model

Live birth is the most important concern for assisted reproductive technology (ART) patients. Therefore, in the medical reproductive centre, obstetricians often need to answer the following question: "What are the chances that I will have a healthy baby after ART treatment?" To date, our obstetricians have no reference on which to base the answer to this question. Our research aimed to solve this problem by establishing prediction models of live birth for ART patients. Between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2017, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of women undergoing ART treatment at the Reproductive Medicine Centre, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Hunan, China. The birth of at least one live-born baby per initiated cycle or embryo transfer procedure was defined as a live birth, and all other pregnancy outcomes were classified as no live birth. A live birth prediction model was established by stepwise multivariate logistic regression. All eligible subjects were randomly allocated to two groups: group 1 (80% of subjects) for the establishment of the prediction models and group 2 (20% of subjects) for the validation of the established prediction models. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of each prediction model at different cut-off values were calculated. The prediction model of live birth included nine variables. The area under the ROC curve was 0.743 in the validation group. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of the established model ranged from 97.9-24.8%, 7.2-96.3%, 44.8-83.8% and 81.7-62.5%, respectively, at different cut-off values. A stable, reliable, convenient, and satisfactory prediction model for live birth by ART patients was established and validated, and this model could be a useful tool for obstetricians to predict the live rate of ART patients. Meanwhile, it is also a reference for obstetricians to create good conditions for infertility patients in preparation for pregnancy.

Do serum progesterone levels on day of embryo transfer influence pregnancy outcomes in artificial frozen-thaw cycles?

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether progesterone (P4) levels on the day of frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) to a hormonally prepared endometrium correlate with pregnancy outcomes.

METHODS

This is a large retrospective cohort analysis comprising of N = 2010 FETs. In these cycles, P4 levels on the day of transfer were assessed in relation to pregnancy outcomes. A threshold of 10 ng/mL was used to simulate currently accepted levels for physiological corpus luteal function. Biochemical pregnancy, clinical pregnancy, and live birth rates were compared between those with P4 levels above and below this threshold. Analyses using transfer day P4 thresholds of 5 ng/mL and 20 ng/mL were then completed to see if these could create further prognostic power.

RESULTS

When comparing FET outcomes in relation to P4 levels < 10 ng/mL and ≥ 10 ng/mL, we observed no differences in biochemical pregnancy rates (39.53% vs. 40.98%, p = 0.52), clinical pregnancy rates (20.82 vs. 22.78, p = 0.30), and live birth rates (14.25 vs. 16.21 p = 0.23). In patients whose P4 met the threshold of 20 ng/mL, there was similarly no statistically significant improvement in pregnancy outcomes. While there was no difference for biochemical or clinical pregnancy rates, a statistically significant improvement in live birth rates was observed for those with a transfer day P4 level ≥ 5 ng/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated that P4 levels at or above 10 ng/mL on the day of FET do not confer a statistically significant improvement in pregnancy outcomes. P4 below 5 ng/mg was associated with lower live birth rates suggesting that there is a threshold below which it is difficult to salvage FET cycles.

Association Between Progesterone Elevation on the Day of Human Chronic Gonadotropin Trigger and Pregnancy Outcomes After Fresh Embryo Transfer in In Vitro Fertilization/Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection Cycles

Progesterone elevation (PE) during the late follicular phase of controlled ovarian stimulation in fresh embryo transfer in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles has been claimed to be associated with decreased pregnancy rates. However, the evidence is not unequivocal, and clinicians still have questions about the clinical validity of measuring P levels during the follicular phase of stimulated cycles. We reviewed the existing literature aimed at answering four relevant clinical questions, namely (i) Is gonadotropin type associated with PE during the follicular phase of stimulated cycles? (ii) Is PE on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) associated with negative fresh embryo transfer IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles outcomes in all patient subgroups? (iii) Which P thresholds are best to identify patients at risk of implantation failure due to PE in a fresh embryo transfer? and (iv) Should a freeze all policy be adopted in all the cycles with PE on the day of hCG? The existing evidence indicates that late follicular phase progesterone rise in gonadotropin releasing analog cycles is mainly caused by the supraphysiological stimulation of granulosa cells with exogenous follicle-stimulating hormone. Yet, the type of gonadotropin used for stimulation seems to play no significant role on progesterone levels at the end of stimulation. Furthermore, PE is not a universal phenomenon with evidence indicating that its detrimental consequences on pregnancy outcomes do not affect all patient populations equally. Patients with high ovarian response to control ovarian stimulation are more prone to exhibit PE at the late follicular phase. However, in studies showing an overall detrimental effect of PE on pregnancy rates, the adverse effect of PE on endometrial receptivity seems to be offset, at least in part, by the availability of good quality embryo for transfer in women with a high ovarian response. Given the limitations of the currently available assays to measure progesterone at low ranges, caution should be applied to adopt specific cutoff values above which the effect of progesterone rise could be considered detrimental and to recommend "freeze-all" based solely on pre-defined cutoff points.