1
|
Yang X, Wang R, Zhang W, Yang Y, Wang F. Predicting risk of the subsequent early pregnancy loss in women with recurrent pregnancy loss based on preconception data. BMC Womens Health 2024; 24:381. [PMID: 38956627 PMCID: PMC11218098 DOI: 10.1186/s12905-024-03206-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2024] [Accepted: 06/12/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND For women who have experienced recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL), it is crucial not only to treat them but also to evaluate the risk of recurrence. The study aimed to develop a risk predictive model to predict the subsequent early pregnancy loss (EPL) in women with RPL based on preconception data. METHODS A prospective, dynamic population cohort study was carried out at the Second Hospital of Lanzhou University. From September 2019 to December 2022, a total of 1050 non-pregnant women with RPL were participated. By December 2023, 605 women had subsequent pregnancy outcomes and were randomly divided into training and validation group by 3:1 ratio. In the training group, univariable screening was performed on RPL patients with subsequent EPL outcome. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression were utilized to select variables, respectively. Subsequent EPL prediction model was constructed using generalize linear model (GLM), gradient boosting machine (GBM), random forest (RF), and deep learning (DP). The variables selected by LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression were then established and compared using the best prediction model. The AUC, calibration curve, and decision curve (DCA) were performed to assess the prediction performances of the best model. The best model was validated using the validation group. Finally, a nomogram was established based on the best predictive features. RESULTS In the training group, the GBM model achieved the best performance with the highest AUC (0.805). The AUC between the variables screened by the LASSO regression (16-variables) and logistic regression (9-variables) models showed no significant difference (AUC: 0.805 vs. 0.777, P = 0.1498). Meanwhile, the 9-variable model displayed a well discrimination performance in the validation group, with an AUC value of 0.781 (95%CI 0.702, 0.843). The DCA showed the model performed well and was feasible for making beneficial clinical decisions. Calibration curves revealed the goodness of fit between the predicted values by the model and the actual values, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 7.427, and P = 0.505. CONCLUSIONS Predicting subsequent EPL in RPL patients using the GBM model has important clinical implications. Future prospective studies are needed to verify the clinical applicability. TRIAL REGISTRATION This study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry with the registration number of ChiCTR2000039414 (27/10/2020).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xin Yang
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, 730030, China
| | - Ruifang Wang
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, 730030, China
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Clinical Medicine of Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, 471003, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, 730030, China
| | - Yanting Yang
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, 730030, China
| | - Fang Wang
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, 730030, China.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Kaur A, Mittal M, Bhatti JS, Thareja S, Singh S. A systematic literature review on the significance of deep learning and machine learning in predicting Alzheimer's disease. Artif Intell Med 2024; 154:102928. [PMID: 39029377 DOI: 10.1016/j.artmed.2024.102928] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Revised: 04/15/2024] [Accepted: 06/27/2024] [Indexed: 07/21/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most prevalent cause of dementia, characterized by a steady decline in mental, behavioral, and social abilities and impairs a person's capacity for independent functioning. It is a fatal neurodegenerative disease primarily affecting older adults. OBJECTIVES The purpose of this literature review is to investigate various AD detection techniques, datasets, input modalities, algorithms, libraries, and performance evaluation metrics used to determine which model or strategy may provide superior performance. METHOD The initial search yielded 807 papers, but only 100 research articles were chosen after applying the inclusion-exclusion criteria. This SLR analyzed research items published between January 2019 and December 2022. The ACM, Elsevier, IEEE Xplore Digital Library, PubMed, Springer and Taylor & Francis were systematically searched. The current study considers articles that used Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), Positron Emission Tomography (PET), APOe4 genotype, Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) and Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) biomarkers. The study was performed following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. CONCLUSION According to the literature survey, most studies (n = 76) used the DL strategy. The datasets used by studies were primarily derived from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. The majority of studies (n = 73) used single-modality neuroimaging data, while the remaining used multi-modal input data. In a multi-modality approach, the combination of MRI and PET scans is commonly preferred. Also, Regarding the algorithm used, Convolution Neural Network (CNN) showed the highest accuracy, 100 %, in classifying AD vs. CN subjects whereas the SVM was the most common ML algorithm, with a maximum accuracy of 99.82 %.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Arshdeep Kaur
- Dept. of Computer Science & Technology, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India
| | - Meenakshi Mittal
- Dept. of Computer Science & Technology, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India
| | - Jasvinder Singh Bhatti
- Dept. of Human Genetics and Molecular Medicine, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India
| | - Suresh Thareja
- Dept. of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Natural Products, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India
| | - Satwinder Singh
- Dept. of Computer Science & Technology, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India.
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Zou H, Wang R, Morbeck DE. Diagnostic or prognostic? Decoding the role of embryo selection on in vitro fertilization treatment outcomes. Fertil Steril 2024; 121:730-736. [PMID: 38185198 DOI: 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2024.01.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2023] [Revised: 12/22/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2024] [Indexed: 01/09/2024]
Abstract
In this review, we take a fresh look at embryo assessment and selection methods from the perspective of diagnosis and prognosis. On the basis of a systematic search in the literature, we examined the evidence on the prognostic value of different embryo assessment methods, including morphological assessment, blastocyst culture, time-lapse imaging, artificial intelligence, and preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Haowen Zou
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rui Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dean E Morbeck
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Principle, Morbeck Consulting Ltd, Auckland, New Zealand.
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Meng L, Ho P. A systematic review of prediction models on arteriovenous fistula: Risk scores and machine learning approaches. J Vasc Access 2024:11297298241237830. [PMID: 38658814 DOI: 10.1177/11297298241237830] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/26/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Failure-to-mature and early stenosis remains the Achille's heel of hemodialysis arteriovenous fistula (AVF) creation. The maturation and patency of an AVF can be influenced by a variety of demographic, comorbidity, and anatomical factors. This study aims to review the prediction models of AVF maturation and patency with various risk scores and machine learning models. DATA SOURCES AND REVIEW METHODS Literature search was performed on PubMed, Scopus, and Embase to identify eligible articles. The quality of the studies was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment (PROBAST) Tool. The performance (discrimination and calibration) of the included studies were extracted. RESULTS Fourteen studies (seven studies used risk score approaches; seven studies used machine learning approaches) were included in the review. Among them, 12 studies were rated as high or unclear "risk of bias." Six studies were rated as high concern or unclear for "applicability." C-statistics (Model discrimination metric) was reported in five studies using risk score approach (0.70-0.886) and three utilized machine learning methods (0.80-0.85). Model calibration was reported in three studies. Failure-to-mature risk score developed by one of the studies has been externally validated in three different patient populations, however the model discrimination degraded significantly (C-statistics: 0.519-0.53). CONCLUSION The performance of existing predictive models for AVF maturation/patency is underreported. They showed satisfactory performance in their own study population. However, there was high risk of bias in methodology used to build some of the models. The reviewed models also lack external validation or had reduced performance in external cohort.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lingyan Meng
- Department of Surgery, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Pei Ho
- Department of Surgery, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Cardiac, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, National University Health System, Singapore
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Li L, Cui X, Yang J, Wu X, Zhao G. Using feature optimization and LightGBM algorithm to predict the clinical pregnancy outcomes after in vitro fertilization. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2023; 14:1305473. [PMID: 38093967 PMCID: PMC10716466 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2023.1305473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Background According to a recent report by the WHO, approximately 17.5\% (about one-sixth) of the global adult population is affected by infertility. Consequently, researchers worldwide have proposed various machine learning models to improve the prediction of clinical pregnancy outcomes during IVF cycles. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning(ML) model that predicts the outcomes of pregnancies following in vitro fertilization (IVF) and assists in clinical treatment. Methods This study conducted a retrospective analysis on provincial reproductive centers in China from March 2020 to March 2021, utilizing 13 selected features. The algorithms used included XGBoost, LightGBM, KNN, Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, and Decision Tree. The results were evaluated using performance metrics such as precision, recall, F1-score, accuracy and AUC, employing five-fold cross-validation repeated five times. Results Among the models, LightGBM achieved the best performance, with an accuracy of 92.31%, recall of 87.80%, F1-score of 90.00\%, and an AUC of 90.41%. The model identified the estrogen concentration at the HCG injection(etwo), endometrium thickness (mm) on HCG day(EM TNK), years of infertility(Years), and body mass index(BMI) as the most important features. Conclusion This study successfully demonstrates the LightGBM model has the best predictive effect on pregnancy outcomes during IVF cycles. Additionally, etwo was found to be the most significant predictor for successful IVF compared to other variables. This machine learning approach has the potential to assist fertility specialists in providing counseling and adjusting treatment strategies for patients.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lu Li
- School of Basic Medicine, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- Center of Reproductive Medicine, Children’s Hospital of Shanxi and Women Health Center of Shanxi, Taiyuan, China
| | - Xiangrong Cui
- Center of Reproductive Medicine, Children’s Hospital of Shanxi and Women Health Center of Shanxi, Taiyuan, China
| | - Jian Yang
- School of Information, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, China
| | - Xueqing Wu
- Center of Reproductive Medicine, Children’s Hospital of Shanxi and Women Health Center of Shanxi, Taiyuan, China
| | - Gang Zhao
- School of Basic Medicine, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- Department of Electronic Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Ferrand T, Boulant J, He C, Chambost J, Jacques C, Pena CA, Hickman C, Reignier A, Fréour T. Predicting the number of oocytes retrieved from controlled ovarian hyperstimulation with machine learning. Hum Reprod 2023; 38:1918-1926. [PMID: 37581894 PMCID: PMC10546073 DOI: 10.1093/humrep/dead163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Revised: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 08/16/2023] Open
Abstract
STUDY QUESTION Can machine learning predict the number of oocytes retrieved from controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH)? SUMMARY ANSWER Three machine-learning models were successfully trained to predict the number of oocytes retrieved from COH. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY A number of previous studies have identified and built predictive models on factors that influence the number of oocytes retrieved during COH. Many of these studies are, however, limited in the fact that they only consider a small number of variables in isolation. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This study was a retrospective analysis of a dataset of 11,286 cycles performed at a single centre in France between 2009 and 2020 with the aim of building a predictive model for the number of oocytes retrieved from ovarian stimulation. The analysis was carried out by a data analysis team external to the centre using the Substra framework. The Substra framework enabled the data analysis team to send computer code to run securely on the centre's on-premises server. In this way, a high level of data security was achieved as the data analysis team did not have direct access to the data, nor did the data leave the centre at any point during the study. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The Light Gradient Boosting Machine algorithm was used to produce three predictive models: one that directly predicted the number of oocytes retrieved and two that predicted which of a set of bins provided by two clinicians the number of oocytes retrieved fell into. The resulting models were evaluated on a held-out test set and compared to linear and logistic regression baselines. In addition, the models themselves were analysed to identify the parameters that had the biggest impact on their predictions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE On average, the model that directly predicted the number of oocytes retrieved deviated from the ground truth by 4.21 oocytes. The model that predicted the first clinician's bins deviated by 0.73 bins whereas the model for the second clinician deviated by 0.62 bins. For all models, performance was best within the first and third quartiles of the target variable, with the model underpredicting extreme values of the target variable (no oocytes and large numbers of oocytes retrieved). Nevertheless, the erroneous predictions made for these extreme cases were still within the vicinity of the true value. Overall, all three models agreed on the importance of each feature which was estimated using Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values. The feature with the highest mean absolute SHAP value (and thus the highest importance) was the antral follicle count, followed by basal AMH and FSH. Of the other hormonal features, basal TSH, LH, and testosterone levels were similarly important and baseline LH was the least important. The treatment characteristic with the highest SHAP value was the initial dose of gonadotropins. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The models produced in this study were trained on a cohort from a single centre. They should thus not be used in clinical practice until trained and evaluated on a larger cohort more representative of the general population. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF FINDINGS These predictive models for the number of oocytes retrieved from COH may be useful in clinical practice, assisting clinicians in optimizing COH protocols for individual patients. Our work also demonstrates the promise of using the Substra framework for allowing external researchers to provide clinically relevant insights on sensitive fertility data in a fully secure, trustworthy manner and opens a number of exciting avenues for accelerating future research. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study was funded by the French Public Bank of Investment as part of the Healthchain Consortium. T.Fe., C.He., J.C., C.J., C.-A.P., and C.Hi. are employed by Apricity. C.Hi. has received consulting fees and honoraria from Vitrolife, Merck Serono, Ferring, Cooper Surgical, Dibimed, Apricity, and Fairtility and travel support from Fairtility and Vitrolife, participates on an advisory board for Merck Serono, was the founder and organizer of the AI Fertility conference, has stock in Aria Fertility, TMRW, Fairtility, Apricity, and IVF Professionals, and received free equipment from Planar in exchange for first user feedback. C.J. has received a grant from BPI. J.C. has also received a grant from BPI, is a member of the Merck AI advisory board, and is a board member of Labelia Labs. C.He has a contract for medical writing of this manuscript by CHU Nantes and has received travel support from Apricity. A.R. haș received honoraria from Ferring and Organon. T.Fe. has received a grant from BPI. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Chloe He
- AI Team, Apricity, London, UK
- Wellcome/EPSRC Centre for Interventional and Surgical Sciences, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
| | | | | | | | - Cristina Hickman
- AI Team, Apricity, London, UK
- Institute of Reproductive and Developmental Biology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Thomas Fréour
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nantes, Nantes, France
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, Dexeus University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Liu X, Chen Z, Ji Y. Construction of the machine learning-based live birth prediction models for the first in vitro fertilization pregnant women. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2023; 23:476. [PMID: 37370040 DOI: 10.1186/s12884-023-05775-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 06/11/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study was to conduct prediction models based on parameters before and after the first cycle, respectively, to predict live births in women who received fresh or frozen in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) for the first time. METHODS This retrospective cohort study population consisted of 1,857 women undergoing the IVF cycle from 2019 to 2021 at Huizhou Municipal Central Hospital. The data between 2019 and 2020 were completely randomly divided into a training set and a validation set (8:2). The data from 2021 was used as the testing set, and the bootstrap validation was carried out by extracting 30% of the data for 200 times on the total data set. In the training set, variables are divided into those before the first cycle and after the first cycle. Then, predictive factors before the first cycle and after the first cycle were screened. Based on the predictive factors, four supervised machine learning algorithms were respectively considered to build the predictive models: logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM). The performances of the prediction models were evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy. RESULTS Totally, 851 women (45.83%) had a live birth. The LGBM model showed a robust performance in predicting live birth before the first cycle, with AUC being 0.678 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.651 to 0.706] in the training set, 0.612 (95% CI: 0.553 to 0.670) in the validation set, 0.634 (95% CI: 0.511 to 0.758) in the testing set, and 0.670 (95% CI: 0.626 to 0.715) in the bootstrap validation. The AUC value in the training set, validation set, testing set, and bootstrap of LGBM to predict live birth after the first cycle was 0.841 (95% CI: 0.821 to 0.861), 0.816 (95% CI: 0.773 to 0.859), 0.835 (95% CI: 0.743 to 0.926), and 0.839 (95% CI: 0.806 to 0.871), respectively. CONCLUSION The LGBM model based on the predictive factors before and after the first cycle for live birth in women showed a good predictive performance. Therefore, it may assist fertility specialists and patients to adjust the appropriate treatment strategy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoyan Liu
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Huizhou Municipal Central Hospital, Huizhou, 516001, P.R. China
| | - Zhiyun Chen
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Huizhou Municipal Central Hospital, Huizhou, 516001, P.R. China
| | - Yanqin Ji
- Obstetrics and Gynecology, Huizhou Municipal Central Hospital, Xiapu Branch, No. 8 Hengjiang 4Th Road, Huizhou, 516001, P.R. China.
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
DNA Methylation of Window of Implantation Genes in Cervical Secretions Predicts Ongoing Pregnancy in Infertility Treatment. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:ijms24065598. [PMID: 36982674 PMCID: PMC10051225 DOI: 10.3390/ijms24065598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2023] [Revised: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2023] [Indexed: 03/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Window of implantation (WOI) genes have been comprehensively identified at the single cell level. DNA methylation changes in cervical secretions are associated with in vitro fertilization embryo transfer (IVF-ET) outcomes. Using a machine learning (ML) approach, we aimed to determine which methylation changes in WOI genes from cervical secretions best predict ongoing pregnancy during embryo transfer. A total of 2708 promoter probes were extracted from mid-secretory phase cervical secretion methylomic profiles for 158 WOI genes, and 152 differentially methylated probes (DMPs) were selected. Fifteen DMPs in 14 genes (BMP2, CTSA, DEFB1, GRN, MTF1, SERPINE1, SERPINE2, SFRP1, STAT3, TAGLN2, TCF4, THBS1, ZBTB20, ZNF292) were identified as the most relevant to ongoing pregnancy status. These 15 DMPs yielded accuracy rates of 83.53%, 85.26%, 85.78%, and 76.44%, and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.90, 0.91, 0.89, and 0.86 for prediction by random forest (RF), naïve Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbors (KNN), respectively. SERPINE1, SERPINE2, and TAGLN2 maintained their methylation difference trends in an independent set of cervical secretion samples, resulting in accuracy rates of 71.46%, 80.06%, 80.72%, and 80.68%, and AUCs of 0.79, 0.84, 0.83, and 0.82 for prediction by RF, NB, SVM, and KNN, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that methylation changes in WOI genes detected noninvasively from cervical secretions are potential markers for predicting IVF-ET outcomes. Further studies of cervical secretion of DNA methylation markers may provide a novel approach for precision embryo transfer.
Collapse
|
9
|
Yuan G, Lv B, Du X, Zhang H, Zhao M, Liu Y, Hao C. Prediction model for missed abortion of patients treated with IVF-ET based on XGBoost: a retrospective study. PeerJ 2023; 11:e14762. [PMID: 36743954 PMCID: PMC9893909 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.14762] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Accepted: 12/27/2022] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Aim In this study, we established a model based on XGBoost to predict the risk of missed abortion in patients treated with in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET), evaluated its prediction ability, and compared the model with the traditional logical regression model. Methods We retrospectively collected the clinical data of 1,017 infertile women treated with IVF-ET. The independent risk factors were screened by performing a univariate analysis and binary logistic regression analysis, and then, all cases were randomly divided into the training set and the test set in a 7:3 ratio for constructing and validating the model. We then constructed the prediction models by the traditional logical regression method and the XGBoost method and tested the prediction performance of the two models by resampling. Results The results of the binary logistic regression analysis showed that several factors, including the age of men and women, abnormal ovarian structure, prolactin (PRL), anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), anticardiolipin antibody (ACA), and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPO-Ab), independently influenced missed abortion significantly (P < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) score and the F1 score with the training set of the XGBoost model (0.877 ± 0.014 and 0.730 ± 0.019, respectively) were significantly higher than those of the logistic model (0.713 ± 0.013 and 0.568 ± 0.026, respectively). In the test set, the AUC and F1 scores of the XGBoost model (0.759 ± 0.023 and 0.566 ± 0.042, respectively) were also higher than those of the logistic model (0.695 ± 0.030 and 0.550 ± 049, respectively). Conclusions We established a prediction model based on the XGBoost algorithm, which can accurately predict the risk of missed abortion in patients with IVF-ET. This model performed better than the traditional logical regression model.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Guanghui Yuan
- Department of Qingdao Medical College, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Bohan Lv
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Xin Du
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, The Affiliated Women and Children’s Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Huimin Zhang
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, The Affiliated Women and Children’s Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Mingzi Zhao
- Department of Qingdao Medical College, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Yingxue Liu
- Department of Qingdao Medical College, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Cuifang Hao
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, The Affiliated Women and Children’s Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Wen JY, Liu CF, Chung MT, Tsai YC. Artificial intelligence model to predict pregnancy and multiple pregnancy risk following in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET). Taiwan J Obstet Gynecol 2022; 61:837-846. [PMID: 36088053 DOI: 10.1016/j.tjog.2021.11.038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To decrease multiple pregnancy risk and sustain optimal pregnancy chance by choosing suitable number of embryos during transfer, this study aims to construct artificial intelligence models to predict the pregnancy outcome and multiple pregnancy risk after IVF-ET. MATERIALS AND METHODS From Jan 2010 to Dec 2019, 1507 fresh embryo transfer cycles contained 20 features were obtained. After eliminating incomplete records, 949 treatment cycles were included in the pregnancy model dataset and 380 cycles in the twin pregnancy model dataset. Six machine learning algorithms were used for model building based on the dataset which 70% of the dataset were randomly selected for training and 30% for validation. Model performances were quantified with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity. RESULTS Models built with XGBoost performed best. The pregnancy prediction model produced accuracy of 0.716, sensitivity of 0.711, specificity of 0.719, and AUC of 0.787. The multiple pregnancy prediction model produced accuracy of 0.711, sensitivity of 0.649, specificity of 0.740, and AUC of 0.732. CONCLUSIONS The AI models provide reliable outcome prediction and could be a promising method to decrease multiple pregnancy risk after IVF-ET.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jen-Yu Wen
- Center for Reproductive Medicine, Depart of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Chi Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Fen Liu
- Center for Big Medical Data and AI Computing, Chi Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Ting Chung
- Center for Reproductive Medicine, Depart of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Chi Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Yung-Chieh Tsai
- Center for Reproductive Medicine, Depart of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Chi Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan; Department of Sport Management, Chia Nan University of Pharmacy and Science, Tainan, Taiwan.
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Shen L, Zhang Y, Chen W, Yin X. The Application of Artificial Intelligence in Predicting Embryo Transfer Outcome of Recurrent Implantation Failure. Front Physiol 2022; 13:885661. [PMID: 35846016 PMCID: PMC9280084 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2022.885661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Recurrent implantation failure (RIF) refers to that infertile patients have undergone multiple in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles and transferred multiple embryos without embryo implantation or clinical pregnancy. Due to the lack of clear evidence-based medical guidelines for the number of embryos to be transferred in RIF patients, how to obtain the highest single cycle pregnancy success rate with as few embryos transferred as possible while avoiding multiple pregnancy as much as possible, that is, how to balance the pregnancy success rate and multiple pregnancy rate, is a great challenge for clinicians and RIF patients. We urgently need an effective and reliable assisted decision-making method to help clinicians find this balance, and an artificial intelligence (AI) system will provide an efficient solution. Design and Methods: In this research, we filtered out the RIF data set (n = 45,921) from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) database from 2005 to 2016. The data set was divided into two groups according to the number of embryos transferred, Group A and B. Group A included 34,175 cycles with two embryos transferred, while Group B included 11,746 cycles with only one embryo transferred, each containing 44 features and a prediction label (pregnancy). Four machine learning algorithms (RF, GBDT, AdaBoost, and MLP) were used to train Group A and Group B data set respectively and 10-folder cross validation method was used to validate the models. Results: The results revealed that the AdaBoost model of Group A obtained the best performance, while the GBDT model in Group B was proved to be the best model. Both models had been proved to provide accurate prediction of transfer outcome. Conclusion: Our research provided a new approach for targeted and personalized treatment of RIF patients to help them achieve efficient and reliable pregnancy. And an AI-assisted decision-making system will be designed to help clinicians and RIF patients develop personalized transfer strategies, which not only guarantees efficient and reliable pregnancy, but also avoids the risk of multiple pregnancy as much as possible.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lei Shen
- College of Computer and Information, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- Nanjing Marine Radar Institute, Nanjing, China
- *Correspondence: Lei Shen, ; Yanran Zhang,
| | - Yanran Zhang
- International Department of Jinling High School, Hexi Campus, Nanjing, China
- *Correspondence: Lei Shen, ; Yanran Zhang,
| | | | - Xinghui Yin
- College of Computer and Information, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Comparison of Machine Learning Classification Techniques to Predict Implantation Success in an In Vitro Fertilization Treatment Cycle. Reprod Biomed Online 2022; 45:923-934. [DOI: 10.1016/j.rbmo.2022.06.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2021] [Revised: 06/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
|
13
|
Handayani N, Louis CM, Erwin A, Aprilliana T, Polim AA, Sirait B, Boediono A, Sini I. Machine Learning Approach to Predict Clinical Pregnancy Potential in Women Undergoing IVF Program. FERTILITY & REPRODUCTION 2022. [DOI: 10.1142/s2661318222500098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective: Hidden knowledge could be discovered within a large practical data of in vitro fertilization (IVF) practice. In this study, Machine learning-based data mining techniques were utilized to construct a reliable prediction model for clinical pregnancy in IVF. Study Design: A retrospective cohort multicenter study involving 4.570 IVF cycles. All patients underwent fresh embryo transfer at either the cleavage or blastocyst stage between January 2015 and December 2019. The experiment focused on utilizing tree-based classifiers to generate and compare the most effective prediction model that could predict a clinical pregnancy through clinical data. Additionally, each classifier is optimized via a genetic algorithm technique, along with the selection of variables. Results: Both the decision tree and random forest showed similar performance that was much better than the gradient boost. The two superior classifiers achieved a balanced accuracy of roughly 0.62. Additionally, each prediction model was shown to work optimally with different combinations of variables, with some variables being consistently included, such as female age, and some consistently excluded, which provides an insight into the relationship between the variables and each prediction model. Conclusion: Machine learning algorithm remains effective for the purpose of data mining and knowledge extraction in IVF clinical datasets through which a relatively reliable prediction system for clinical pregnancy could be constructed, provided the available data is sufficient.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nining Handayani
- Morula IVF Jakarta Clinic, Jakarta, Indonesia
- IRSI Research and Training Centre, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | | | - Alva Erwin
- IRSI Research and Training Centre, Jakarta, Indonesia
- Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, Swiss German University, Tangerang, Indonesia
| | | | - Arie A Polim
- Morula IVF Jakarta Clinic, Jakarta, Indonesia
- IRSI Research and Training Centre, Jakarta, Indonesia
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Atmajaya Catholic University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Batara Sirait
- Morula IVF Jakarta Clinic, Jakarta, Indonesia
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Kristen Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Arief Boediono
- Morula IVF Jakarta Clinic, Jakarta, Indonesia
- IRSI Research and Training Centre, Jakarta, Indonesia
- Department of Anatomy, Physiology and Pharmacology, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
| | - Ivan Sini
- Morula IVF Jakarta Clinic, Jakarta, Indonesia
- IRSI Research and Training Centre, Jakarta, Indonesia
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Xiong F, Sun Q, Wang S, Yao Z, Chen P, Wan C, Zhong H, Zeng Y. A nomogram to assist blastocyst selection in vitrified‐warmed embryo transfer cycles. J Obstet Gynaecol Res 2022; 48:1816-1828. [PMID: 35373468 DOI: 10.1111/jog.15138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2021] [Revised: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Feng Xiong
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri‐implantation Shenzhen Zhongshan Institute for Reproduction and Genetics, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital Shenzhen Guangdong People's Republic of China
| | - Qing Sun
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri‐implantation Shenzhen Zhongshan Institute for Reproduction and Genetics, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital Shenzhen Guangdong People's Republic of China
| | - Sisi Wang
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri‐implantation Shenzhen Zhongshan Institute for Reproduction and Genetics, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital Shenzhen Guangdong People's Republic of China
| | - Zhihong Yao
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri‐implantation Shenzhen Zhongshan Institute for Reproduction and Genetics, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital Shenzhen Guangdong People's Republic of China
| | - Peilin Chen
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri‐implantation Shenzhen Zhongshan Institute for Reproduction and Genetics, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital Shenzhen Guangdong People's Republic of China
| | - Caiyun Wan
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri‐implantation Shenzhen Zhongshan Institute for Reproduction and Genetics, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital Shenzhen Guangdong People's Republic of China
| | - Huixian Zhong
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri‐implantation Shenzhen Zhongshan Institute for Reproduction and Genetics, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital Shenzhen Guangdong People's Republic of China
| | - Yong Zeng
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri‐implantation Shenzhen Zhongshan Institute for Reproduction and Genetics, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital Shenzhen Guangdong People's Republic of China
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Fu K, Li Y, Lv H, Wu W, Song J, Xu J. Development of a Model Predicting the Outcome of In Vitro Fertilization Cycles by a Robust Decision Tree Method. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2022; 13:877518. [PMID: 36093079 PMCID: PMC9449728 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2022.877518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 06/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Infertility is a worldwide problem. To evaluate the outcome of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment for infertility, many indicators need to be considered and the relation among indicators need to be studied. OBJECTIVES To construct an IVF predicting model by a robust decision tree method and find important factors and their interrelation. METHODS IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles between January 2010 and December 2020 in a women's hospital were collected. Comprehensive evaluation and examination of patients, specific therapy strategy and the outcome of treatment were recorded. Variables were selected through the significance of 1-way analysis between the clinical pregnant group and the nonpregnant group and then were discretized. Then, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) was used to construct the model to compute the score for predicting the rate of clinical pregnancy. RESULT Thirty-eight variables with significant difference were selected for binning and thirty of them in which the pregnancy rate varied in different categories were chosen to construct the model. The final score computed by model predicted the clinical pregnancy rate well with the Area Under Curve (AUC) value achieving 0.704 and the consistency reaching 98.1%. Number of two-pronuclear embryo (2PN), age of women, AMH level, number of oocytes retrieved and endometrial thickness were important factors related to IVF outcome. Moreover, some interrelations among factors were found from model, which may assist clinicians in making decisions. CONCLUSION This study constructed a model predicting the outcome of IVF cycles through a robust decision tree method and achieved satisfactory prediction performance. Important factors related to IVF outcome and some interrelations among factors were found.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kaiyou Fu
- First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Women’s Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yanrui Li
- School of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Houyi Lv
- Women’s Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Fourth Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, China
| | - Wei Wu
- Fourth Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, China
| | - Jianyuan Song
- Fourth Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, China
| | - Jian Xu
- Women’s Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Fourth Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, China
- *Correspondence: Jian Xu,
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Reel PS, Reel S, Pearson E, Trucco E, Jefferson E. Using machine learning approaches for multi-omics data analysis: A review. Biotechnol Adv 2021; 49:107739. [PMID: 33794304 DOI: 10.1016/j.biotechadv.2021.107739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 265] [Impact Index Per Article: 88.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2020] [Revised: 03/01/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
With the development of modern high-throughput omic measurement platforms, it has become essential for biomedical studies to undertake an integrative (combined) approach to fully utilise these data to gain insights into biological systems. Data from various omics sources such as genetics, proteomics, and metabolomics can be integrated to unravel the intricate working of systems biology using machine learning-based predictive algorithms. Machine learning methods offer novel techniques to integrate and analyse the various omics data enabling the discovery of new biomarkers. These biomarkers have the potential to help in accurate disease prediction, patient stratification and delivery of precision medicine. This review paper explores different integrative machine learning methods which have been used to provide an in-depth understanding of biological systems during normal physiological functioning and in the presence of a disease. It provides insight and recommendations for interdisciplinary professionals who envisage employing machine learning skills in multi-omics studies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Parminder S Reel
- Division of Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom
| | - Smarti Reel
- Division of Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom
| | - Ewan Pearson
- Division of Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom
| | - Emanuele Trucco
- VAMPIRE project, Computing, School of Science and Engineering, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom
| | - Emily Jefferson
- Division of Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom.
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Huang C, Xiang Z, Zhang Y, Tan DS, Yip CK, Liu Z, Li Y, Yu S, Diao L, Wong LY, Ling WL, Zeng Y, Tu W. Using Deep Learning in a Monocentric Study to Characterize Maternal Immune Environment for Predicting Pregnancy Outcomes in the Recurrent Reproductive Failure Patients. Front Immunol 2021; 12:642167. [PMID: 33868275 PMCID: PMC8047052 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2021.642167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2020] [Accepted: 02/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Recurrent reproductive failure (RRF), such as recurrent pregnancy loss and repeated implantation failure, is characterized by complex etiologies and particularly associated with diverse maternal factors. It is currently believed that RRF is closely associated with the maternal environment, which is, in turn, affected by complex immune factors. Without the use of automated tools, it is often difficult to assess the interaction and synergistic effects of the various immune factors on the pregnancy outcome. As a result, the application of Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) has been explored in the field of assisted reproductive technology (ART). In this study, we reviewed studies on the use of A.I. to develop prediction models for pregnancy outcomes of patients who underwent ART treatment. A limited amount of models based on genetic markers or common indices have been established for prediction of pregnancy outcome of patients with RRF. In this study, we applied A.I. to analyze the medical information of patients with RRF, including immune indicators. The entire clinical samples set (561 samples) was divided into two sets: 90% of the set was used for training and 10% for testing. Different data panels were established to predict pregnancy outcomes at four different gestational nodes, including biochemical pregnancy, clinical pregnancy, ongoing pregnancy, and live birth, respectively. The prediction models of pregnancy outcomes were established using sparse coding, based on six data panels: basic patient characteristics, hormone levels, autoantibodies, peripheral immunology, endometrial immunology, and embryo parameters. The six data panels covered 64 variables. In terms of biochemical pregnancy prediction, the area under curve (AUC) using the endometrial immunology panel was the largest (AUC = 0.766, accuracy: 73.0%). The AUC using the autoantibodies panel was the largest in predicting clinical pregnancy (AUC = 0.688, accuracy: 78.4%), ongoing pregnancy (AUC = 0.802, accuracy: 75.0%), and live birth (AUC = 0.909, accuracy: 89.7%). Combining the data panels did not significantly enhance the effect on prediction of all the four pregnancy outcomes. These results give us a new insight on reproductive immunology and establish the basis for assisting clinicians to plan more precise and personalized diagnosis and treatment for patients with RRF.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chunyu Huang
- Department of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.,Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri-Implantation, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Zheng Xiang
- Department of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Yongnu Zhang
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri-Implantation, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | | | | | - Zhiqiang Liu
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri-Implantation, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yuye Li
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri-Implantation, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Shuyi Yu
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri-Implantation, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Lianghui Diao
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri-Implantation, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | | | | | - Yong Zeng
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Reproductive Immunology for Peri-Implantation, Fertility Center, Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Wenwei Tu
- Department of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| |
Collapse
|