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Molani F, Webb S, Cho AE. Combining QM/MM Calculations with Classical Mining Minima to Predict Protein-Ligand Binding Free Energy. J Chem Inf Model 2023; 63:2728-2734. [PMID: 37079618 DOI: 10.1021/acs.jcim.2c01637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/21/2023]
Abstract
We developed an effective binding free energy prediction protocol which incorporates quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) calculations to substitute the specified atomic charges of force fields with quantum-mechanically recalculated ones at a proposed pose using a mining minima approach with the VeraChem mining minima engine. We tested this protocol using seven well-known targets with 147 different ligands and compared it with classical mining minima and the most popular binding free energy (BFE) methods using different metrics. Our new protocol, dubbed Qcharge-VM2, yielded an overall Pearson correlation of 0.86, which was better than all the methods examined. Qcharge-VM2 performed significantly better than implicit solvent-based methods, such as MM-GBSA and MM-PBSA, but not as good as explicit water-based free energy perturbation methods, such as FEP+, in terms of root-mean-square error, RMSE (1.75 kcal/mol) and mean unsigned error, MUE (1.39 kcal/mol) on a limited set of targets. However, our protocol is substantially less computationally demanding compared with FEP+. The combined accuracy and efficiency of our method can be valuable in drug discovery campaigns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Farzad Molani
- Department of Bioinformatics, Korea University, 2511 Sejong-ro, Sejong 30119, Korea
| | - Simon Webb
- VeraChem LLC, 12850 Middlebrook Road STE 205, Germantown, Maryland 20874, United States
| | - Art E Cho
- Department of Bioinformatics, Korea University, 2511 Sejong-ro, Sejong 30119, Korea
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2
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Xu P, Sattasathuchana T, Guidez E, Webb SP, Montgomery K, Yasini H, Pedreira IFM, Gordon MS. Computation of host-guest binding free energies with a new quantum mechanics based mining minima algorithm. J Chem Phys 2021; 154:104122. [PMID: 33722015 PMCID: PMC7955858 DOI: 10.1063/5.0040759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2020] [Accepted: 02/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
A new method called QM-VM2 is presented that efficiently combines statistical mechanics with quantum mechanical (QM) energy potentials in order to calculate noncovalent binding free energies of host-guest systems. QM-VM2 efficiently couples the use of semi-empirical QM (SEQM) energies and geometry optimizations with an underlying molecular mechanics (MM) based conformational search, to find low SEQM energy minima, and allows for processing of these minima at higher levels of ab initio QM theory. A progressive geometry optimization scheme is introduced as a means to increase conformational sampling efficiency. The newly implemented QM-VM2 is used to compute the binding free energies of the host molecule cucurbit[7]uril and a set of 15 guest molecules. The results are presented along with comparisons to experimentally determined binding affinities. For the full set of 15 host-guest complexes, which have a range of formal charges from +1 to +3, SEQM-VM2 based binding free energies show poor correlation with experiment, whereas for the ten +1 complexes only, a significant correlation (R2 = 0.8) is achieved. SEQM-VM2 generation of conformers followed by single-point ab initio QM calculations at the dispersion corrected restricted Hartree-Fock-D3(BJ) and TPSS-D3(BJ) levels of theory, as post-processing corrections, yields a reasonable correlation with experiment for the full set of host-guest complexes (R2 = 0.6 and R2 = 0.7, respectively) and an excellent correlation for the +1 formal charge set (R2 = 1.0 and R2 = 0.9, respectively), as long as a sufficiently large basis set (triple-zeta quality) is employed. The importance of the inclusion of configurational entropy, even at the MM level, for the achievement of good correlation with experiment was demonstrated by comparing the calculated ΔE values with experiment and finding a considerably poorer correlation with experiment than for the calculated free energy ΔE - TΔS. For the complete set of host-guest systems with the range of formal charges, it was observed that the deviation of the predicted binding free energy from experiment correlates somewhat with the net charge of the systems. This observation leads to a simple empirical interpolation scheme to improve the linear regression of the full set.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peng Xu
- Department of Chemistry, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50014, USA
| | | | - Emilie Guidez
- Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, Colorado 80204, USA
| | - Simon P. Webb
- VeraChem LLC, 12850 Middlebrook Rd. Ste 205, Germantown, Maryland 20874-5244, USA
| | | | - Hussna Yasini
- Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, Colorado 80204, USA
| | - Iara F. M. Pedreira
- Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, Colorado 80204, USA
| | - Mark S. Gordon
- Department of Chemistry, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50014, USA
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3
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Berta D, Szabó I, Scherman OA, Rosta E. Toward Understanding CB[7]-Based Supramolecular Diels-Alder Catalysis. Front Chem 2020; 8:587084. [PMID: 33240848 PMCID: PMC7677497 DOI: 10.3389/fchem.2020.587084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 09/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Cucurbiturils (CBs) are robust and versatile macrocyclic compounds, often used as molecular hosts in complex supramolecular systems. In previous work, remarkable catalytic activity has been observed for asymmetric cycloadditions under very mild conditions. Herein, we investigate the nature of supramolecular catalysis using DFT calculations and QM/MM techniques. We discuss induced conformational changes, electrostatic shielding effects from the highly polar aqueous environment and cooperativity in hydrogen bonding of the substrates in explicit water using QM/MM simulation techniques. Our results show little specificity for the chosen molecules, suggesting an excellent opportunity to expand the scope for catalytic use of these supramolecular macrocyclic containers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dénes Berta
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, London, United Kingdom.,Department of Chemistry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - István Szabó
- Department of Chemistry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Oren A Scherman
- Melville Laboratory for Polymer Synthesis, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Edina Rosta
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, London, United Kingdom.,Department of Chemistry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
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4
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Ismahan L, Leila N, Fatiha M, Abdelkrim G, Mouna C, Nada B, Brahim H. Computational study of inclusion complex of l-Glutamine/beta-Cycldextrin: Electronic and intermolecular interactions investigations. J Mol Struct 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.molstruc.2020.127740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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5
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Nora M, Ismahan L, Abdelkrim G, Mouna C, Leila N, Fatiha M, Nada B, Brahim H. Interactions in inclusion complex of β-cyclodextrin/l-Metheonine: DFT computational studies. J INCL PHENOM MACRO 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10847-019-00948-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
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6
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Venkataramanan NS, Suvitha A, Sahara R. Structure, stability, and nature of bonding between high energy water clusters confined inside cucurbituril: A computational study. COMPUT THEOR CHEM 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.comptc.2018.12.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
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7
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Rizzi A, Murkli S, McNeill JN, Yao W, Sullivan M, Gilson MK, Chiu MW, Isaacs L, Gibb BC, Mobley DL, Chodera JD. Overview of the SAMPL6 host-guest binding affinity prediction challenge. J Comput Aided Mol Des 2018; 32:937-963. [PMID: 30415285 PMCID: PMC6301044 DOI: 10.1007/s10822-018-0170-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 93] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2018] [Accepted: 10/07/2018] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
Accurately predicting the binding affinities of small organic molecules to biological macromolecules can greatly accelerate drug discovery by reducing the number of compounds that must be synthesized to realize desired potency and selectivity goals. Unfortunately, the process of assessing the accuracy of current computational approaches to affinity prediction against binding data to biological macromolecules is frustrated by several challenges, such as slow conformational dynamics, multiple titratable groups, and the lack of high-quality blinded datasets. Over the last several SAMPL blind challenge exercises, host-guest systems have emerged as a practical and effective way to circumvent these challenges in assessing the predictive performance of current-generation quantitative modeling tools, while still providing systems capable of possessing tight binding affinities. Here, we present an overview of the SAMPL6 host-guest binding affinity prediction challenge, which featured three supramolecular hosts: octa-acid (OA), the closely related tetra-endo-methyl-octa-acid (TEMOA), and cucurbit[8]uril (CB8), along with 21 small organic guest molecules. A total of 119 entries were received from ten participating groups employing a variety of methods that spanned from electronic structure and movable type calculations in implicit solvent to alchemical and potential of mean force strategies using empirical force fields with explicit solvent models. While empirical models tended to obtain better performance than first-principle methods, it was not possible to identify a single approach that consistently provided superior results across all host-guest systems and statistical metrics. Moreover, the accuracy of the methodologies generally displayed a substantial dependence on the system considered, emphasizing the need for host diversity in blind evaluations. Several entries exploited previous experimental measurements of similar host-guest systems in an effort to improve their physical-based predictions via some manner of rudimentary machine learning; while this strategy succeeded in reducing systematic errors, it did not correspond to an improvement in statistical correlation. Comparison to previous rounds of the host-guest binding free energy challenge highlights an overall improvement in the correlation obtained by the affinity predictions for OA and TEMOA systems, but a surprising lack of improvement regarding root mean square error over the past several challenge rounds. The data suggests that further refinement of force field parameters, as well as improved treatment of chemical effects (e.g., buffer salt conditions, protonation states), may be required to further enhance predictive accuracy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Rizzi
- Computational and Systems Biology Program, Sloan Kettering Institute, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, 10065, USA
- Tri-Institutional Training Program in Computational Biology and Medicine, New York, NY, 10065, USA
| | - Steven Murkli
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - John N McNeill
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Wei Yao
- Department of Chemistry, Tulane University, Louisiana, LA, 70118, USA
| | - Matthew Sullivan
- Department of Chemistry, Tulane University, Louisiana, LA, 70118, USA
| | - Michael K Gilson
- Skaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - Michael W Chiu
- Qualcomm Institute, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - Lyle Isaacs
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Bruce C Gibb
- Department of Chemistry, Tulane University, Louisiana, LA, 70118, USA
| | - David L Mobley
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine, California, 92697, USA.
| | - John D Chodera
- Computational and Systems Biology Program, Sloan Kettering Institute, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, 10065, USA.
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8
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Wang C, Greene D, Xiao L, Qi R, Luo R. Recent Developments and Applications of the MMPBSA Method. Front Mol Biosci 2018; 4:87. [PMID: 29367919 PMCID: PMC5768160 DOI: 10.3389/fmolb.2017.00087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 325] [Impact Index Per Article: 54.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2017] [Accepted: 11/30/2017] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
The Molecular Mechanics Poisson-Boltzmann Surface Area (MMPBSA) approach has been widely applied as an efficient and reliable free energy simulation method to model molecular recognition, such as for protein-ligand binding interactions. In this review, we focus on recent developments and applications of the MMPBSA method. The methodology review covers solvation terms, the entropy term, extensions to membrane proteins and high-speed screening, and new automation toolkits. Recent applications in various important biomedical and chemical fields are also reviewed. We conclude with a few future directions aimed at making MMPBSA a more robust and efficient method.
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Affiliation(s)
- Changhao Wang
- Chemical and Materials Physics Graduate Program, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
- Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
| | - D'Artagnan Greene
- Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
| | - Li Xiao
- Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
| | - Ruxi Qi
- Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
| | - Ray Luo
- Chemical and Materials Physics Graduate Program, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
- Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
- Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
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9
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Abstract
Binding free energy calculations based on molecular simulations provide predicted affinities for biomolecular complexes. These calculations begin with a detailed description of a system, including its chemical composition and the interactions among its components. Simulations of the system are then used to compute thermodynamic information, such as binding affinities. Because of their promise for guiding molecular design, these calculations have recently begun to see widespread applications in early-stage drug discovery. However, many hurdles remain in making them a robust and reliable tool. In this review, we highlight key challenges of these calculations, discuss some examples of these challenges, and call for the designation of standard community benchmark test systems that will help the research community generate and evaluate progress. In our view, progress will require careful assessment and evaluation of new methods, force fields, and modeling innovations on well-characterized benchmark systems, and we lay out our vision for how this can be achieved.
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Affiliation(s)
- David L Mobley
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine, California 92697;
| | - Michael K Gilson
- Skaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Center for Drug Discovery Innovation, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093;
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10
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Caldararu O, Olsson MA, Riplinger C, Neese F, Ryde U. Binding free energies in the SAMPL5 octa-acid host-guest challenge calculated with DFT-D3 and CCSD(T). J Comput Aided Mol Des 2017; 31:87-106. [PMID: 27600554 PMCID: PMC5239813 DOI: 10.1007/s10822-016-9957-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2016] [Accepted: 08/25/2016] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
We have tried to calculate the free energy for the binding of six small ligands to two variants of the octa-acid deep cavitand host in the SAMPL5 blind challenge. We employed structures minimised with dispersion-corrected density-functional theory with small basis sets and energies were calculated using large basis sets. Solvation energies were calculated with continuum methods and thermostatistical corrections were obtained from frequencies calculated at the HF-3c level. Care was taken to minimise the effects of the flexibility of the host by keeping the complexes as symmetric and similar as possible. In some calculations, the large net charge of the host was reduced by removing the propionate and benzoate groups. In addition, the effect of a restricted molecular dynamics sampling of structures was tested. Finally, we tried to improve the energies by using the DLPNO-CCSD(T) approach. Unfortunately, results of quite poor quality were obtained, with no correlation to the experimental data, systematically too positive affinities (by ~50 kJ/mol) and a mean absolute error (after removal of the systematic error) of 11-16 kJ/mol. DLPNO-CCSD(T) did not improve the results, so the accuracy is not limited by the energy function. Instead, four likely sources of errors were identified: first, the minimised structures were often incorrect, owing to the omission of explicit solvent. They could be partly improved by performing the minimisations in a continuum solvent with four water molecules around the charged groups of the ligands. Second, some ligands could bind in several different conformations, requiring sampling of reasonable structures. Third, there is an indication the continuum-solvation model has problems to accurately describe the binding of both the negatively and positively charged guest molecules. Fourth, different methods to calculate the thermostatistical corrections gave results that differed by up to 30 kJ/mol and there is an indication that HF-3c overestimates the entropy term. In conclusion, it is a challenge to calculate binding affinities for this octa-acid system with quantum-mechanical methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Octav Caldararu
- Department of Theoretical Chemistry, Chemical Centre, Lund University, P. O. Box 124, 221 00, Lund, Sweden
| | - Martin A Olsson
- Department of Theoretical Chemistry, Chemical Centre, Lund University, P. O. Box 124, 221 00, Lund, Sweden
| | - Christoph Riplinger
- Max-Planck-Institut für Chemische Energiekonversion, Stiftstraße 34-36, 45470, Mülheim an der Ruhr, Germany
| | - Frank Neese
- Max-Planck-Institut für Chemische Energiekonversion, Stiftstraße 34-36, 45470, Mülheim an der Ruhr, Germany
| | - Ulf Ryde
- Department of Theoretical Chemistry, Chemical Centre, Lund University, P. O. Box 124, 221 00, Lund, Sweden.
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11
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Absolute binding free energy calculations of CBClip host-guest systems in the SAMPL5 blind challenge. J Comput Aided Mol Des 2016; 31:71-85. [PMID: 27677749 DOI: 10.1007/s10822-016-9968-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2016] [Accepted: 09/08/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Herein, we report the absolute binding free energy calculations of CBClip complexes in the SAMPL5 blind challenge. Initial conformations of CBClip complexes were obtained using docking and molecular dynamics simulations. Free energy calculations were performed using thermodynamic integration (TI) with soft-core potentials and Bennett's acceptance ratio (BAR) method based on a serial insertion scheme. We compared the results obtained with TI simulations with soft-core potentials and Hamiltonian replica exchange simulations with the serial insertion method combined with the BAR method. The results show that the difference between the two methods can be mainly attributed to the van der Waals free energies, suggesting that either the simulations used for TI or the simulations used for BAR, or both are not fully converged and the two sets of simulations may have sampled difference phase space regions. The penalty scores of force field parameters of the 10 guest molecules provided by CHARMM Generalized Force Field can be an indicator of the accuracy of binding free energy calculations. Among our submissions, the combination of docking and TI performed best, which yielded the root mean square deviation of 2.94 kcal/mol and an average unsigned error of 3.41 kcal/mol for the ten guest molecules. These values were best overall among all participants. However, our submissions had little correlation with experiments.
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12
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Ryde U, Söderhjelm P. Ligand-Binding Affinity Estimates Supported by Quantum-Mechanical Methods. Chem Rev 2016; 116:5520-66. [DOI: 10.1021/acs.chemrev.5b00630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 175] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ulf Ryde
- Department of Theoretical
Chemistry and ‡Department of Biophysical Chemistry, Lund University, Chemical Centre, P.O. Box 124, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden
| | - Pär Söderhjelm
- Department of Theoretical
Chemistry and ‡Department of Biophysical Chemistry, Lund University, Chemical Centre, P.O. Box 124, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden
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13
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BEDAM binding free energy predictions for the SAMPL4 octa-acid host challenge. J Comput Aided Mol Des 2015; 29:315-25. [PMID: 25726024 DOI: 10.1007/s10822-014-9795-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2014] [Accepted: 09/05/2014] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
The binding energy distribution analysis method (BEDAM) protocol has been employed as part of the SAMPL4 blind challenge to predict the binding free energies of a set of octa-acid host-guest complexes. The resulting predictions were consistently judged as some of the most accurate predictions in this category of the SAMPL4 challenge in terms of quantitative accuracy and statistical correlation relative to the experimental values, which were not known at the time the predictions were made. The work has been conducted as part of a hands-on graduate class laboratory session. Collectively the students, aided by automated setup and analysis tools, performed the bulk of the calculations and the numerical and structural analysis. The success of the experiment confirms the reliability of the BEDAM methodology and it shows that physics-based atomistic binding free energy estimation models, when properly streamlined and automated, can be successfully employed by non-specialists.
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Yilmazer ND, Korth M. Enhanced semiempirical QM methods for biomolecular interactions. Comput Struct Biotechnol J 2015; 13:169-75. [PMID: 25848495 PMCID: PMC4372622 DOI: 10.1016/j.csbj.2015.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2015] [Revised: 02/17/2015] [Accepted: 02/19/2015] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent successes and failures of the application of 'enhanced' semiempirical QM (SQM) methods are reviewed in the light of the benefits and backdraws of adding dispersion (D) and hydrogen-bond (H) correction terms. We find that the accuracy of SQM-DH methods for non-covalent interactions is very often reported to be comparable to dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT-D), while computation times are about three orders of magnitude lower. SQM-DH methods thus open up a possibility to simulate realistically large model systems for problems both in life and materials science with comparably high accuracy.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Martin Korth
- Institute of Theoretical Chemistry, Ulm University, D-89069 Ulm, Germany
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15
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The SAMPL4 host-guest blind prediction challenge: an overview. J Comput Aided Mol Des 2014; 28:305-17. [PMID: 24599514 DOI: 10.1007/s10822-014-9735-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 138] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2014] [Accepted: 02/17/2014] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
Prospective validation of methods for computing binding affinities can help assess their predictive power and thus set reasonable expectations for their performance in drug design applications. Supramolecular host-guest systems are excellent model systems for testing such affinity prediction methods, because their small size and limited conformational flexibility, relative to proteins, allows higher throughput and better numerical convergence. The SAMPL4 prediction challenge therefore included a series of host-guest systems, based on two hosts, cucurbit[7]uril and octa-acid. Binding affinities in aqueous solution were measured experimentally for a total of 23 guest molecules. Participants submitted 35 sets of computational predictions for these host-guest systems, based on methods ranging from simple docking, to extensive free energy simulations, to quantum mechanical calculations. Over half of the predictions provided better correlations with experiment than two simple null models, but most methods underperformed the null models in terms of root mean squared error and linear regression slope. Interestingly, the overall performance across all SAMPL4 submissions was similar to that for the prior SAMPL3 host-guest challenge, although the experimentalists took steps to simplify the current challenge. While some methods performed fairly consistently across both hosts, no single approach emerged as consistent top performer, and the nonsystematic nature of the various submissions made it impossible to draw definitive conclusions regarding the best choices of energy models or sampling algorithms. Salt effects emerged as an issue in the calculation of absolute binding affinities of cucurbit[7]uril-guest systems, but were not expected to affect the relative affinities significantly. Useful directions for future rounds of the challenge might involve encouraging participants to carry out some calculations that replicate each others' studies, and to systematically explore parameter options.
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