The slow but steady rise of binding free energy calculations in drug discovery

Toward physics-based precision medicine: Exploiting protein dynamics to design new therapeutics and interpret variants

The goal of precision medicine is to utilize our knowledge of the molecular causes of disease to better diagnose and treat patients. However, there is a substantial mismatch between the small number of food and drug administration (FDA)-approved drugs and annotated coding variants compared to the needs of precision medicine. This review introduces the concept of physics-based precision medicine, a scalable framework that promises to improve our understanding of sequence-function relationships and accelerate drug discovery. We show that accounting for the ensemble of structures a protein adopts in solution with computer simulations overcomes many of the limitations imposed by assuming a single protein structure. We highlight studies of protein dynamics and recent methods for the analysis of structural ensembles. These studies demonstrate that differences in conformational distributions predict functional differences within protein families and between variants. Thanks to new computational tools that are providing unprecedented access to protein structural ensembles, this insight may enable accurate predictions of variant pathogenicity for entire libraries of variants. We further show that explicitly accounting for protein ensembles, with methods like alchemical free energy calculations or docking to Markov state models, can uncover novel lead compounds. To conclude, we demonstrate that cryptic pockets, or cavities absent in experimental structures, provide an avenue to target proteins that are currently considered undruggable. Taken together, our review provides a roadmap for the field of protein science to accelerate precision medicine.

What to Make of Zero: Resolving the Statistical Noise from Conformational Reorganization in Alchemical Binding Free Energy Estimates with Metadynamics Sampling

We introduce the self-relative binding free energy (self-RBFE) approach to evaluate the intrinsic statistical variance of dual-topology alchemical binding free energy estimators. The self-RBFE is the relative binding free energy between a ligand and a copy of the same ligand, and its true value is zero. Nevertheless, because the two copies of the ligand move independently, the self-RBFE value produced by a finite-length simulation fluctuates and can be used to measure the variance of the model. The results of this validation provide evidence that a significant fraction of the errors observed in benchmark studies reflect the statistical fluctuations of unconverged estimates rather than the models' accuracy. Furthermore, we find that ligand reorganization is a significant contributing factor to the statistical variance of binding free energy estimates and that metadynamics-accelerated conformational sampling of the torsional degrees of freedom of the ligand can drastically reduce the time to convergence.

Performance and Analysis of the Alchemical Transfer Method for Binding-Free-Energy Predictions of Diverse Ligands

The Alchemical Transfer Method (ATM) is herein validated against the relative binding-free energies (RBFEs) of a diverse set of protein-ligand complexes. We employed a streamlined setup workflow, a bespoke force field, and AToM-OpenMM software to compute the RBFEs of the benchmark set prepared by Schindler and collaborators at Merck KGaA. This benchmark set includes examples of standard small R-group ligand modifications as well as more challenging scenarios, such as large R-group changes, scaffold hopping, formal charge changes, and charge-shifting transformations. The novel coordinate perturbation scheme and a dual-topology approach of ATM address some of the challenges of single-topology alchemical RBFE methods. Specifically, ATM eliminates the need for splitting electrostatic and Lennard-Jones interactions, atom mapping, defining ligand regions, and postcorrections for charge-changing perturbations. Thus, ATM is simpler and more broadly applicable than conventional alchemical methods, especially for scaffold-hopping and charge-changing transformations. Here, we performed well over 500 RBFE calculations for eight protein targets and found that ATM achieves accuracy comparable to that of existing state-of-the-art methods, albeit with larger statistical fluctuations. We discuss insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of the ATM method that will inform future deployments. This study confirms that ATM can be applied as a production tool for RBFE predictions across a wide range of perturbation types within a unified, open-source framework.

FEP Protocol Builder: Optimization of Free Energy Perturbation Protocols Using Active Learning

Significant improvements have been made in the past decade to methods that rapidly and accurately predict binding affinity through free energy perturbation (FEP) calculations. This has been driven by recent advances in small-molecule force fields and sampling algorithms combined with the availability of low-cost parallel computing. Predictive accuracies of ∼1 kcal mol-1 have been regularly achieved, which are sufficient to drive potency optimization in modern drug discovery campaigns. Despite the robustness of these FEP approaches across multiple target classes, there are invariably target systems that do not display expected performance with default FEP settings. Traditionally, these systems required labor-intensive manual protocol development to arrive at parameter settings that produce a predictive FEP model. Due to the (a) relatively large parameter space to be explored, (b) significant compute requirements, and (c) limited understanding of how combinations of parameters can affect FEP performance, manual FEP protocol optimization can take weeks to months to complete, and often does not involve rigorous train-test set splits, resulting in potential overfitting. These manual FEP protocol development timelines do not coincide with tight drug discovery project timelines, essentially preventing the use of FEP calculations for these target systems. Here, we describe an automated workflow termed FEP Protocol Builder (FEP-PB) to rapidly generate accurate FEP protocols for systems that do not perform well with default settings. FEP-PB uses an active-learning workflow to iteratively search the protocol parameter space to develop accurate FEP protocols. To validate this approach, we applied it to pharmaceutically relevant systems where default FEP settings could not produce predictive models. We demonstrate that FEP-PB can rapidly generate accurate FEP protocols for the previously challenging MCL1 system with limited human intervention. We also apply FEP-PB in a real-world drug discovery setting to generate an accurate FEP protocol for the p97 system. FEP-PB is able to generate a more accurate protocol than the expert user, rapidly validating p97 as amenable to free energy calculations. Additionally, through the active-learning workflow, we are able to gain insight into which parameters are most important for a given system. These results suggest that FEP-PB is a robust tool that can aid in rapidly developing accurate FEP protocols and increasing the number of targets that are amenable to the technology.

Targeted Protein Degradation: Advances, Challenges, and Prospects for Computational Methods

The therapeutic approach of targeted protein degradation (TPD) is gaining momentum due to its potentially superior effects compared with protein inhibition. Recent advancements in the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors have led to the development of compounds that are currently in human trials, with some showing promising clinical results. However, the use of computational tools in TPD is still limited, as it has distinct characteristics compared with traditional computational drug design methods. TPD involves creating a ternary structure (protein-degrader-ligase) responsible for the biological function, such as ubiquitination and subsequent proteasomal degradation, which depends on the spatial orientation of the protein of interest (POI) relative to E2-loaded ubiquitin. Modeling this structure necessitates a unique blend of tools initially developed for small molecules (e.g., docking) and biologics (e.g., protein-protein interaction modeling). Additionally, degrader molecules, particularly heterobifunctional degraders, are generally larger than conventional small molecule drugs, leading to challenges in determining drug-like properties like solubility and permeability. Furthermore, the catalytic nature of TPD makes occupancy-based modeling insufficient. TPD consists of multiple interconnected yet distinct steps, such as POI binding, E3 ligase binding, ternary structure interactions, ubiquitination, and degradation, along with traditional small molecule properties. A comprehensive set of tools is needed to address the dynamic nature of the induced proximity ternary complex and its implications for ubiquitination. In this Perspective, we discuss the current state of computational tools for TPD. We start by describing the series of steps involved in the degradation process and the experimental methods used to characterize them. Then, we delve into a detailed analysis of the computational tools employed in TPD. We also present an integrative approach that has proven successful for degrader design and its impact on project decisions. Finally, we examine the future prospects of computational methods in TPD and the areas with the greatest potential for impact.

Can Free Energy Perturbation Simulations Coupled with Replica-Exchange Molecular Dynamics Study Ligands with Distributed Binding Sites?

Free energy perturbation coupled with replica exchange with solute tempering (FEP/REST) offers a rigorous approach to compute relative free energy changes for ligands. To determine the applicability of FEP/REST for the ligands with distributed binding poses, we considered two alchemical transformations involving three putative inhibitors I0, I1, and I2 of the Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus nuclear localization signal sequence binding to the importin-α (impα) transporter protein. I0 → I1 and I0 → I2 transformations, respectively, increase or decrease the polarity of the parent molecule. Our objective was three-fold─(i) to verify FEP/REST technical performance and convergence, (ii) to estimate changes in binding free energy ΔΔG, and (iii) to determine the utility of FEP/REST simulations for conformational binding analysis. Our results are as follows. First, our FEP/REST implementation properly follows FEP/REST formalism and produces converged ΔΔG estimates. Due to ligand inherent unbinding, the better FEP/REST strategy lies in performing multiple independent trajectories rather than extending their length. Second, I0 → I1 and I0 → I2 transformations result in overall minor changes in inhibitor binding free energy, slightly strengthening the affinity of I1 and weakening that of I2. Electrostatic interactions dominate binding interactions, determining the enthalpic changes. The two transformations cause opposite entropic changes, which ultimately govern binding affinities. Importantly, we confirm the validity of FEP/REST free energy estimates by comparing them with our previous REST simulations, directly probing binding of three ligands to impα. Third, we established that FEP/REST simulations can sample binding ensembles of ligands. Thus, FEP/REST can be applied (i) to study the energetics of the ligand binding without defined poses and showing minor differences in affinities |ΔΔG| ≲ 0.5 kcal/mol and (ii) to collect ligand binding conformational ensembles.