Introduction to the special issue on Gun violence: addressing a critical public health challenge

Special Section Introduction: Revitalizing Developmental Research on Adolescent Gun Involvement

Although firearm violence is universally recognized as a paramount public health problem in the United States, for nearly two decades a Congressional budget amendment prevented federal agencies from funding research aimed at understanding the antecedents and consequences of gun violence. These restrictions have been lifted in recent years; however, the field is struggling to overcome a considerable lapse in developmentally-informed longitudinal research on adolescent gun involvement. Some key areas in need of further investigation include: (a) examining developmental and gender differences in risk factors for adolescent gun carrying, (b) clarifying the mechanisms through which socio-economic disadvantage confers risk for engaging in adolescent gun violence, (c) identifying proximal risk and protective factors that are associated with engagement in adolescent gun violence among high risk youth, and (d) delineating the unique effect the exposure to gun violence has on adolescents' emotional and behavioral problems. This special section was organized in an attempt to revitalize research on these issues using a diverse array of longitudinal data sets consisting of both epidemiological and juvenile justice samples. Collectively, the findings from these studies are based upon repeated assessments conducted from childhood through early adulthood, making this set of papers uniquely positioned to advance our understanding of adolescent gun involvement from a developmental perspective.

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

BACKGROUND

Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place.

METHODS

We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place.

RESULTS

The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.

Implicaciones del porte legal de armas en salud pública: Una mirada desde el caso colombiano

La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) define la violencia como el uso de la fuerza física de manera exagerada contra sí mismos o con miembros de una comunidad. Cada acto de violencia en sí, genera un aumento del riesgo de muerte, de esta manera, se estima que 9 de cada 10 muertes violentas no se encuentra asociada al conflicto armado.