Impulsivity, gambling cognitions, and the gambler's fallacy in university students

Encouraging Gamblers to Think Critically Using Generalised Analytical Priming is Ineffective at Reducing Gambling Biases

Gambling has been associated with an array of fallacious beliefs that foster risky gambling decisions. Research into other belief systems suggests that the endorsement of non-evidence based beliefs, such as the paranormal or conspiracy theories, can be reduced when people think more analytically. The purpose of this study was to explore whether an intervention designed to elicit analytical thinking was effective in altering the gambling beliefs and simulated gambling behaviour of 178 regular electronic gaming machine (EGM) gamblers (102 males, 76 female). Participants were randomly allocated to complete either an analytic or a neutral priming task, followed by completion of belief measures (erroneous and protective) and play on a simulated EGM game. Results failed to show that priming for analytical thinking changed betting on an EGM; including features of bet size, bet change, persistence and theoretical losses. Contrary to expectations, results suggest that priming analytical thinking using generalised interventions does not appear to be effective in altering peoples' simulated gambling involvement or gambling beliefs. In fact, priming people to think more critically might be counterproductive by contributing to greater positive expectations about gambling outcomes. The results further suggested that the number of times a player alters their bet is a good indicator of theoretical gambling losses and is associated with irrational gambling cognitions. Interventions designed to promote safer thinking in gamblers should be implemented with care, as results from our study suggest that encouraging critical thinking in at-risk or problem gamblers may not be effective in reducing risky gambling.

The effects of alcohol on sequential decision-making biases during gambling

RATIONALE

Gambling and alcohol use are recreational behaviours that share substantial commonalities at a phenomenological, clinical and neurobiological level. Past studies have shown that alcohol can have a disinhibiting effect on gambling behaviour, in terms of bet size and persistence.

OBJECTIVES

This study was conducted in order to characterise how alcohol affects biases in judgment and decision-making that occur during gambling, with a focus on sequential decision-making including the gambler's fallacy.

METHODS

Sequential biases were elicited via a roulette-based gambling task. Using a standard between-groups alcohol challenge procedure, male participants played the roulette task 20 min after receiving an alcoholic (0.8 g/kg; n = 22) or placebo (n = 16) beverage. The task measured colour choice decisions (red/black) and bet size, in response to varying lengths of colour runs and winning/losing feedback streaks.

RESULTS

Across both groups, a number of established sequential biases were observed. On colour choice, there was an effect of run length in line with the gambler's fallacy, which further varied by previous feedback (wins vs losses). Bet size increased with feedback streaks, especially for losing streaks. Compared to placebo, the alcohol group placed higher bets following losses compared to wins.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased bet size after losses following alcohol consumption may reflect increased loss chasing that may amplify gambling harms. Our results do not fit a simple pattern of enhanced gambling distortions or reward sensitivity, but help contextualise the effects of alcohol on gambling to research on decision-making biases.

The joint role of impulsivity and distorted cognitions in recreational and problem gambling: A cluster analytic approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Pathways Model (Blaszczynski & Nower, 2002) posits that problem gambling is a heterogeneous disorder with distinct subgroups (behaviorally conditioned gamblers, emotionally vulnerable gamblers, and antisocial-impulsivist gamblers). Impulsivity traits and gambling-related cognitions are recognized as two key psychological factors in the onset and maintenance of problem gambling. To date, these constructs have been explored separately, and their joint role in determining problem gambling subtypes has received little attention. The goal of our study was to identify subgroups of gamblers based on impulsivity traits and gambling-related cognitions, and to determine whether this approach is consistent with the Pathways model.

METHODS

Gamblers from the community (N = 709) and treatment-seeking pathological gamblers (N = 122) completed questionnaires measuring gambling habits, disordered gambling symptoms, gambling-related cognitions, and impulsivity traits.

RESULTS

Cluster analyses revealed that three clusters globally aligned with the pathways proposed by Blaszczynski & Nower (2002). Two other clusters emerged: (1) impulsive gamblers without cognitive-related cognitions; and (2) gamblers without impulsivity or gambling-related cognitions. Gamblers with both heightened impulsive traits and gambling-related cognitions had more severe problem gambling symptoms.

CONCLUSION

We successfully identified, based on an a priori theoretical framework, different subtypes of gamblers that varied in terms of problem gambling symptoms and clinical status. The diversity of the cluster profiles supports the development of personalized prevention strategies and psychological interventions.

The gambler's fallacy in problem and non-problem gamblers

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although numerous correlational studies have shown an association between cognitive distortions and problem gambling, only a few behavioral studies have investigated this topic by comparing problem (PGs) and non-problem gamblers (N-PGs). This quasi-experiment investigated the occurrence in both groups of a widespread cognitive distortion, the gambler's fallacy (GF), using a fictitious roulette game. Moreover, it investigated whether the GF increased the bet amount and whether impulsivity and sensation seeking were associated with the GF.

METHODS

Two indices of the GF were used: a cognitive index, the probability estimate of each outcome (black/red) after manipulating the final run length (the same outcome occurring four times/once), and a behavioral index, the choice of the outcome on which to bet. A total of 320 (160 PGs and 160 N-PGs) unpaid male volunteers, aged between 18 and 68, participated in this study.

HYPOTHESES

Erroneous probability estimates should mediate the effect of longer runs on the alternation choice (i.e., the choice of an outcome different from the previous one) to support the occurrence of GF. The GF should increase betting. PGs should be more prone than N-PGs to GF.

RESULTS

The choice of the outcome depended on both cognitive (erroneous probability estimates) and affective (preference for red) factors. PGs bet more than N-PGs but they were not more prone than N-PGs to incurring GF. Although impulsivity and sensation seeking were more intense in PGs than in N-PGs, they scarcely affected GF.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our results corroborate the tested model of the GF that links mistaken probability estimates, choice of the outcome on which to bet, and bet amount. However, they are similar to PGs and N-PGs and fail to corroborate the hypothesis that the GF is more evident in PGs.

Emotion regulation in emerging adult gamblers and its mediating role with depressive symptomology

BACKGROUND

It is presently estimated that as much as 10% of emerging adults are at risk for a gambling disorder. The consequences stemming from problematic gambling engagement include increased substance use, mental health disorders, suicidality, financial strain and legal issues. The present study explores whether deficits in emotion regulation explain the association between problem gambling severity and depression.

METHODS

A sample of 820 emerging adult gamblers (M_age = 21.14 years-old, SD = 2.90, 50.9% female) completed an online survey including an assessment of problematic engagement in gambling over the past year, levels of anxious/depressive symptomology, and difficulties in emotion regulation. In total, 15.6% and 8.2% of this sample were at moderate or high risk for gambling disorder.

RESULTS

Results from a linear regression model revealed that difficulties with impulse control positively contributed to problem gambling scores and engagement in goal-directed behavior positively contributed to problem gambling scores, even after accounting for symptoms of depression. Moreover, results from a mediation model revealed that the association between problem gambling and depression was explained by participants' deficits in non-acceptance, goals, strategies, and clarity.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations include the use of self-report and cross-sectional data making it difficult to infer causality.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings add to our understanding of the mechanisms that appear to explain for the first time the affective consequences of problem gambling. Enhancing specific dimensions of emotion regulation will allow for tailored interventions among gamblers with depression, ultimately achieving better mental health outcomes.

Resting-state EEG activity related to impulsivity in gambling disorder

Background and aims Impulsivity is a core feature of gambling disorder (GD) and is related to the treatment response. Thus, it is of interest to determine objective neurobiological markers associated with impulsivity in GD. We explored resting-state electroencephalographic (EEG) activity in patients with GD according to the degree of impulsivity. Methods In total, 109 GD subjects were divided into three groups according to Barratt impulsiveness scale-11 (BIS-11) scores: high (HI; 25th percentile of BIS-11 scores, n = 29), middle (MI; 26th-74th percentile, n = 57), and low-impulsivity (LI) groups (75th percentile, n = 23). We used generalized estimating equations to analyze differences in EEG absolute power considering group (HI, MI, and LI), brain region (frontal, central, and posterior), and hemisphere (left, midline, and right) for each frequency band (delta, theta, alpha, beta, and gamma). Results The results indicated that GD patients in the HI group showed decreased theta absolute power, and decreased alpha and beta absolute power in the left, right, particularly midline frontocentral regions. Discussion and conclusions This study is a novel attempt to reveal impulsive features in GD by neurophysiological methods. The results suggest different EEG patterns among GD patients according to the degree of impulsivity, raising the possibility of neurophysiological objective features in GD and helping clinicians in treating GD patients with impulsive features.

Positive association between trait impulsivity and high gambling-related cognitive biases among college students

The present study examined whether people with high gambling-related cognitive bias are more likely to have higher levels of impulsivity than are those with low gambling-related cognitive bias. We used Barratt Impulsiveness Scale version 11, Zuckerman-Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire and the Iowa gambling task to explore differences in impulsivity between high and low gambling-related cognitive bias groups. Extreme group design was applied. 110 participants (high gambling related cognition group=58, low one=52) were recruited to complete the gambling related cognition scale, impulsivity self-rating scales and Iowa gambling task. Impulsivity self-rating scores were higher among subjects with high than among those with low gambling-related cognitive bias. Compared with individuals with low gambling-related cognitive bias, those with high levels of such bias showed greater degrees of trait impulsivity. We are unable to identify group differences on IGT. State and trait impulsivity may be dissociated.

Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT)

Figner et al. (2009) developed the Columbia Card Task (CCT) to measure risk-taking attitudes. This tool consists of two versions: in the COLD version the decision maker needs to state in advance how many cards (out of 32) they want to turn over (so called static risk taking), in the HOT version they have the possibility of turning over all 32 cards one-by-one until they decide to finish (dynamic risk taking). We argue that the HOT version confounds an individual's willingness to accept risk with their beliefs in trend continuation vs. trend reversal in a prognostic task. In two experimental studies we show that people believing in trend continuation (momentum subjects) turn over more cards than those believing in trend reversal (contrarians) in the HOT version of the task. However, this is not the case in the COLD version. Thus, we provide evidence that, when considered as a dynamic risk propensity measure, the number of turned over cards in the HOT version of the CCT is a contaminated measure and reflects two phenomena: (1) risk preference and (2) the decision-maker's belief in trend continuation. We speculate that other dynamic risk taking measures can also be biased by a momentum strategy.

Components of Impulsivity in Gambling Disorder

This study examined the structure of impulsivity within gambling disorder. A group of 51 men and 53 women with gambling disorder completed self-report and behavioral measures of impulsivity. Principal component analyses found two factors. The first was interpreted as measuring trait impulsivity. This factor correlated with problem gambling severity, presence of comorbid mental health and substance use disorders, history of brain injury, and was higher in Aboriginal participants. The second factor had high loadings on the self-reported sensation-seeking scales and the behavioural measures of response impulsivity. This factor correlated with overall gambling involvement but not with indicators of pathology. Higher scores were associated with younger age. These results are consistent with an evolving model of the etiology of disordered gambling that suggests that sensation-seeking is related to gambling involvement but that trait impulsivity and mental health struggles are associated with the development of gambling disorder.

Disordered gambling: the evolving concept of behavioral addiction

The reclassification of gambling disorder within the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) addictions category marks an important step for addiction science. The similarities between gambling disorder and the substance use disorders have been well documented. As gambling is unlikely to exert actively damaging effects on the brain, the cognitive sequelae of gambling disorder may provide insights into addictive vulnerabilities; this idea is critically evaluated in light of recent structural imaging data. The second part of the review analyzes a fundamental question of how a behavior can become addictive in the absence of exogenous drug stimulation. The relative potency of drug and nondrug rewards is considered, alongside evidence that cognitive distortions in the processing of chance (for example, the illusion of control and the gambler's fallacy) may constitute an important added ingredient in gambling. Further understanding of these mechanisms at neural and behavioral levels will be critical for the classification of future behavioral addictions, and I consider the current research data for obesity and binge eating, compulsive shopping, and internet gaming disorder.

'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial-by-trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial-by-trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post-decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.