Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers

Cognitive Factors that Predict Gambling Fallacy Endorsement

Gambling fallacies are a collection of error-stricken beliefs about gambling and how gambling works. Gambling fallacies, while common in the general public, appear to increase as a function of gambling severity. This being the case, many interventions have focused on reducing gambling fallacies as a means of treating problem-gambling. Less research, however, has investigated what factors contributes to gambling fallacy susceptibility in the first place. Available studies have identified associations between gambling fallacy susceptibility and isolated individual differences in, for example, statistical reasoning/understanding, intelligence, or cognitive ability. The current study aimed to assess these cognitive factors in conjunction, and their relative predictive potential for gambling fallacy susceptibility. In an Australian university student sample (n = 90) it was found that there were moderate to strong association between gambling fallacy endorsement and general intelligence, probabilistic reasoning ability, rational cognitive style and the ability to suppress intuitive thought, however, only probabilistic reasoning, rational cognitive style and the ability to suppress intuitive thinking contributed to the prediction of fallacy endorsement. Importantly, each of these factors are malleable. Interventions for the correction of gambling-specific fallacious beliefs should focus on these factors.

Matching Behaviours and Rewards

Matching describes how behaviour is related to rewards. The matching law holds when the ratio of an individual's behaviours equals the ratio of the rewards obtained. From its origins in the study of pigeons working for food in the laboratory, the law has been applied to a range of species, both in the laboratory and outside it (e.g., human sporting decisions). Probability matching occurs when the probability of a behaviour equals the probability of being rewarded. Input matching predicts the distribution of individuals across habitats. We evaluate the rationality of the matching law and probability matching, expose the logic of matching in real-world cases, review how recent neuroscience findings relate to matching, and suggest future research directions.

Gambling disorder is associated with reduced sensitivity to expected value during risky choice

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Individuals with gambling disorder display increased levels of risk-taking, but it is not known if it is associated with an altered subjective valuation of gains and/or losses, perception of their probabilities, or integration of these sources of information into expected value.

METHODS

Participants with gambling disorder (n = 48) were compared with a healthy comparison group (n = 35) on a two-choice lottery task that involved either gains-only or losses-only gambles. On each trial, two lotteries were displayed, showing the associated probability and magnitude of the possible outcome for each. On each trial, participants chose one of the two lotteries, and the outcome was revealed.

RESULTS

Choice behaviour was highly sensitive to the expected value of the two gambles in both the gain and loss domains. This sensitivity to expected value was attenuated in the group with gambling disorder. The group with gambling disorder used both probability and magnitude information less, and this impairment was greater for probability information. By contrast, they used prior feedback (win vs loss) to inform their next choice, despite the independence of each trial. Within the gambling disorder group, problem gambling severity and trait gambling-related cognitions independently predicted reduced sensitivity to expected value. The majority of observed effects were consistent across both gain and loss domains.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide a thorough characterization of decision processes in gain and loss domains in gambling disorder, and place these problems in the context of theoretical constructs from behavioural economics.

The gambler's fallacy in problem and non-problem gamblers

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although numerous correlational studies have shown an association between cognitive distortions and problem gambling, only a few behavioral studies have investigated this topic by comparing problem (PGs) and non-problem gamblers (N-PGs). This quasi-experiment investigated the occurrence in both groups of a widespread cognitive distortion, the gambler's fallacy (GF), using a fictitious roulette game. Moreover, it investigated whether the GF increased the bet amount and whether impulsivity and sensation seeking were associated with the GF.

METHODS

Two indices of the GF were used: a cognitive index, the probability estimate of each outcome (black/red) after manipulating the final run length (the same outcome occurring four times/once), and a behavioral index, the choice of the outcome on which to bet. A total of 320 (160 PGs and 160 N-PGs) unpaid male volunteers, aged between 18 and 68, participated in this study.

HYPOTHESES

Erroneous probability estimates should mediate the effect of longer runs on the alternation choice (i.e., the choice of an outcome different from the previous one) to support the occurrence of GF. The GF should increase betting. PGs should be more prone than N-PGs to GF.

RESULTS

The choice of the outcome depended on both cognitive (erroneous probability estimates) and affective (preference for red) factors. PGs bet more than N-PGs but they were not more prone than N-PGs to incurring GF. Although impulsivity and sensation seeking were more intense in PGs than in N-PGs, they scarcely affected GF.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our results corroborate the tested model of the GF that links mistaken probability estimates, choice of the outcome on which to bet, and bet amount. However, they are similar to PGs and N-PGs and fail to corroborate the hypothesis that the GF is more evident in PGs.

The predictive capacity of DSM-5 symptom severity and impulsivity on response to cognitive-behavioral therapy for gambling disorder: A 2-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

DSM-5 proposed a new operational system by using the number of fulfilled criteria as an indicator of gambling disorder severity. This method has proven to be controversial among researchers and clinicians alike, due to the lack of studies indicating whether severity, as measured by these criteria, is clinically relevant in terms of treatment outcome. Additionally, numerous studies have highlighted the associations between gambling disorder and impulsivity, though few have examined the impact of impulsivity on long-term treatment outcomes.

METHODS

In this study, we aimed to assess the predictive value of DSM-5 severity levels on response to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) in a sample of male adults seeking treatment for gambling disorder (n = 398). Furthermore, we explored longitudinal predictors of CBT treatment response at a follow-up, considering UPPS-P impulsivity traits.

RESULTS

Our study failed to identify differences in treatment outcomes between patients categorized by DSM-5 severity levels. Higher baseline scores in negative urgency predicted relapse during CBT treatment, and higher levels of sensation seeking were predictive of drop-out from short-term treatment, as well as of drop-out at 24-months.

CONCLUSIONS

These noteworthy findings raise questions regarding the clinical utility of DSM-5 severity categories and lend support to the implementation of dimensional approaches for gambling disorder.

Identifying Environmental and Social Factors Predisposing to Pathological Gambling Combining Standard Logistic Regression and Logic Learning Machine

Identifying potential risk factors for problem gambling (PG) is of primary importance for planning preventive and therapeutic interventions. We illustrate a new approach based on the combination of standard logistic regression and an innovative method of supervised data mining (Logic Learning Machine or LLM). Data were taken from a pilot cross-sectional study to identify subjects with PG behaviour, assessed by two internationally validated scales (SOGS and Lie/Bet). Information was obtained from 251 gamblers recruited in six betting establishments. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle and cognitive-related factors, and type, place and frequency of preferred gambling were obtained by a self-administered questionnaire. The following variables associated with PG were identified: instant gratification games, alcohol abuse, cognitive distortion, illegal behaviours and having started gambling with a relative or a friend. Furthermore, the combination of LLM and LR indicated the presence of two different types of PG, namely: (a) daily gamblers, more prone to illegal behaviour, with poor money management skills and who started gambling at an early age, and (b) non-daily gamblers, characterised by superstitious beliefs and a higher preference for immediate reward games. Finally, instant gratification games were strongly associated with the number of games usually played. Studies on gamblers habitually frequently betting shops are rare. The finding of different types of PG by habitual gamblers deserves further analysis in larger studies. Advanced data mining algorithms, like LLM, are powerful tools and potentially useful in identifying risk factors for PG.

Cognitive distortions and ADHD in pathological gambling: A national longitudinal case-control cohort study

Introduction The primary outcome of our study was to assess the links between the level of cognitive distortions and the severity of gambling disorder. We also aimed at assessing the links between patient gambling trajectories and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Materials and methods The study population (n = 628) was comprised of problem and non-problem gamblers of both sexes between 18 and 65 years of age, who reported gambling on at least one occasion during the previous year. Data encompassed socio-demographic characteristics, gambling habits, the South Oaks Gambling Screen, the Gambling Attitudes and Beliefs Survey - 23, the Wender Utah Rating Scale - Child, and the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale. Results The cognitive distortions with the greatest correlation to the severity of gambling disorder were the "Chasing" and "Emotions." These two dimensions were able to distinguish between problem gamblers seeking treatment or not. While age of onset of gambling and length of gambling practice were not associated with the level of distorted cognitions, a period of abstinence of at least 1 month was associated with a lower level of distorted cognitions. The presence of ADHD resulted in a higher level of distorted cognitions. Conclusion Cognitive work is essential to the prevention, and the treatment, of pathological gambling, especially with respect to emotional biases and chasing behavior. The instauration of an abstinence period of at least 1 month under medical supervision could be a promising therapeutic lead for reducing gambling-related erroneous thoughts and for improving care strategies of pathological gamblers.

Understanding the psychology of mobile gambling: A behavioural synthesis

This manuscript reviews the extant literature on key issues related to mobile gambling and considers whether the potential risks of harm emerging from this platform are driven by pre‐existing comorbidities or by psychological processes unique to mobile gambling. We propose an account based on associative learning that suggests this form of gambling is likely to show distinctive features compared with other gambling technologies. Smartphones are a rapidly growing platform on which individuals can gamble using specifically designed applications, adapted websites or text messaging. This review considers how mobile phone use interacts with psychological processes relevant to gambling, the games users are likely to play on smartphones, and the interactions afforded by smartphones. Our interpretation of the evidence is that the schedules of reinforcement found in gambling interact with the ways in which people tend to use smartphones that may expedite the acquisition of maladaptive learned behaviours such as problem gambling. This account is consistent with existing theories and frameworks of problem gambling and has relevance to other forms of mobile phone use.