Craving for Gambling Predicts Income-Generating Offenses: A Pathways Model of a Japanese Prison Population

Effect of pachinko parlour openings and closings on neighbourhood income-generating crimes in Japan: 6.5 years of observations

BACKGROUND

Electronic gambling machines (EGMs) in gambling venues cause gambling-related harm and are a public health concern. This study focused on pachinko parlours as gambling venues and income-generating crimes as gambling-related harm. We aimed to verify whether income-generating crime rates increase in proximity to pachinko parlours and during the opening and post-closing periods of pachinko parlours relative to the pre-opening periods.

METHODS

We used crime records spanning 6.5 years, including data on the opening and closing days of pachinko parlours for 6.5 years. We also sampled the addresses of convenience stores, bowling alleys, and households with official land prices all over Japan. The dependent variable was the daily income-generating crime incidence rate. Areas within 0.5 km, 0.5-1 km, 1-5 km, and 5-10 km radii of the pachinko parlours were the independent variables. The pre-, opening-, and post-closing periods of the pachinko parlours were also independent variables. The covariates included the number of convenience stores and always open pachinko parlours near pachinko parlours. Data were analysed using an analysis of variance (ANOVA) and covariance (ANCOVA). We also used differences-in-differences analysis (DD) to reveal the increase in income-generating crime rates in neighbourhoods exposed to the opening or closing of pachinko parlours.

RESULTS

The daily income-generating crime incidence rate was significantly higher in areas within 0.5-1 km and 1-5 km radii of pachinko parlours than in those within 0.5 km and 5-10 km radii of them. The daily income-generating crime incidence rate was also significantly higher during the opening and post-closing periods than during the pre-opening period, even when controlling for the number of convenience stores and always open pachinko parlours. In particular, fraud crime rates increased with the opening and closing of pachinko parlours.

CONCLUSIONS

The highest income-generating crime incidence rate was observed within a 0.5-1 km and 1-5 km radius of pachinko parlours. The opening of pachinko parlours also increased income-generating crime incidence rates, which increased after closing. Pachinko parlours are considered to be creating public harm because the corporate activities of these parlours make the youth in their neighbourhood perpetrators of fraud and older adults its victims. Future research should examine the current findings using official crime records.

Using the Synthetic Control Method to Evaluate the Impact of a Land-Based Gambling Ban on Crime

We use the synthetic control method to examine whether land-based gambling ban has an effect on crime in a given city. In a sample of four Czech cities where the ban was introduced, we show that these cities had roughly the same crime rate development in the years after the ban as the control cities without the ban, showing that there is no significant impact. As this is, to our knowledge, the first use of the synthetic control method in the context of gambling, the main contribution of this study lies in demonstrating the possibilities in its use. Employing this versatile method may improve the current situation where many gambling impact studies suffer from the absence of a control group or an identification strategy to confirm causal relationship. Last but not least, the results of this study make an important contribution to the debate on blanket measures in gambling regulation; although pathological gambling is linked to crime, banning this activity may not lead to the expected consequences.

Spread of gambling abstinence through peers and comments in online self-help chat forums to quit gambling

Habit formation occurs in relation to peer habits and comments. This general principle was applied to gambling abstinence in the context of online self-help forums to quit gambling. Participants in this study, conducted between September 2008 and March 2020, were 161 abstinent and 928 non-abstinent gamblers who participated in online self-help chat forums to quit gambling. They received 269,317 comments during their first 3 years of forum participation. Gamblers had an increased likelihood of 3-year continuous gambling abstinence if they had many peers in the forums. However, they had a decreased likelihood of gambling abstinence if they received rejective comments from the forums. Based on these results, online social network-based interventions may be a new treatment option for gamblers.

A Change Talk Model for Abstinence Based on Web-Based Anonymous Gambler Chat Meeting Data by Using an Automatic Change Talk Classifier: Development Study

BACKGROUND

Change and sustain talks (negative and positive comments) on gambling have been relevant for determining gamblers' outcomes but they have not been used to clarify the abstinence process in anonymous gambler meetings.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a change talk model for abstinence based on data extracted from web-based anonymous gambler chat meetings by using an automatic change talk classifier.

METHODS

This study used registry data from the internet. The author accessed web-based anonymous gambler chat meetings in Japan and sampled 1.63 million utterances (two-sentence texts) from 267 abstinent gamblers who have remained abstinent for at least three years and 1625 nonabstinent gamblers. The change talk classifier in this study automatically classified gamblers' utterances into change and sustain talks.

RESULTS

Abstinent gamblers showed higher proportions of change talks and lower probability of sustain talks compared with nonabstinent gamblers. The change talk model for abstinence, involving change and sustain talks, classified abstinent and nonabstinent gamblers through the use of a support vector machine with a radial basis kernel function. The model also indicated individual evaluation scores for abstinence and the ideal proportion of change talks for all participants according to their previous utterances.

CONCLUSIONS

Abstinence likelihood among gamblers can be increased by providing personalized evaluation values and indicating the optimal proportion of change talks. Moreover, this may help to prevent severe mental, social, and financial problems caused by the gambling disorder.