Wild Felid Range Shift Due to Climatic Constraints in the Americas: a Bottleneck Explanation for Extinct Felids?

Genetic structure and climate niche differentiation among populations of Leopardus geoffroyi

Geoffroy's cat (Leopardus geoffroyi) is a small-sized felid native to South America. Given the species' distribution covering a wide variety of habitats, and the presence of high levels of anthropization in part of its range, it is possible that genetically differentiated groups exist and that they occupy different climatic niches. We assessed patterns of contemporary genetic diversity and structure in the species across most of its range, characterizing each inferred genetic group based on ecological niche models. We genotyped 11 microsatellites for 142 samples covering most of Geoffroy's cat distribution, and investigated patterns of genetic structure and diversity, applying spatial and nonspatial Bayesian clustering methods and a spatial principal component analysis. We created ecological niche models for each genetic cluster, evaluating whether these clusters occupy different climatic spaces and display differences in the suitability of different values of the climatic variables analyzed. We identified two genetic clusters, one in the north-northeast and the other in the south-southwest of the species' distribution. These clusters showed moderate FST values between them and differences in dispersal/genetic diversity. We found isolation-by-distance patterns globally and within each cluster. We observed lower expected heterozygosity compared with other studies and a north-south gradient in allelic richness. The southern cluster showed lower genetic variability and a more restricted climatic niche suggesting that this group is more vulnerable to the effects of the current context of climate change. Individuals from the southern genetic cluster are under different pressures, likely a product of the particularly dry habitat they occupy. Climatic variables associated with habitat suitability suggest the southern cluster has affinity for the arid and semiarid conditions present in its distribution. Conservation measures should consider the genetic structure observed and differences in climatic spaces to maintain the evolutionary potential of the species.

Climate change and carnivores: shifts in the distribution and effectiveness of protected areas in the Amazon

Background

Carnivore mammals are animals vulnerable to human interference, such as climate change and deforestation. Their distribution and persistence are affected by such impacts, mainly in tropical regions such as the Amazon. Due to the importance of carnivores in the maintenance and functioning of the ecosystem, they are extremely important animals for conservation. We evaluated the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of carnivores in the Amazon using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Do we seek to answer the following questions: (1) What is the effect of climate change on the distribution of carnivores in the Amazon? (2) Will carnivore species lose or gain representation within the Protected Areas (PAs) of the Amazon in the future?

Methods

We evaluated the distribution area of 16 species of carnivores mammals in the Amazon, based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the year 2070. For the construction of the SDMs we used bioclimatic and vegetation cover variables (land type). Based on these models, we calculated the area loss and climate suitability of the species, as well as the effectiveness of the protected areas inserted in the Amazon. We estimated the effectiveness of PAs on the individual persistence of carnivores in the future, for this, we used the SDMs to perform the gap analysis. Finally, we analyze the effectiveness of PAs in protecting taxonomic richness in future scenarios.

Results

The SDMs showed satisfactory predictive performance, with Jaccard values above 0.85 and AUC above 0.91 for all species. In the present and for the future climate scenarios, we observe a reduction of potencial distribution in both future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), where five species will be negatively affected by climate change in the RCP 4.5 future scenario and eight in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The remaining species stay stable in terms of total area. All species in the study showed a loss of climatic suitability. Some species lost almost all climatic suitability in the RCP 8.5 scenario. According to the GAP analysis, all species are protected within the PAs both in the current scenario and in both future climate scenarios. From the null models, we found that in all climate scenarios, the PAs are not efficient in protecting species richness.

Spotting what’s important: Priority areas, connectivity, and conservation of the Northern Tiger Cat (Leopardus tigrinus) in Colombia

Leopardus tigrinus is among the least known carnivore species in the Neotropics, including considerable taxonomic uncertainty. Here we model the distribution, connectivity and overlap with existing conservation areas for the species in Colombia. Using a Species Distribution Modeling approach, we estimated current potential range of the species in Colombia and identified potential habitat blocks remaining in the country. In addition, we designed a connectivity network across the available cores, using a circuit theory approach, to evaluate habitat linkage. Finally, we defined a prioritization scheme for the remaining habitat cores and assessed the level of coverage of protected areas for the country. L. tigrinus is potentially present across the three Andean branches of Colombia, with still considerable continuous habitat cores, mostly located on the eastern and central Andean ranges. Most habitat cores are theoretically connected, but nearly 15% are isolated. Priority areas were located across the eastern and central ranges, but with very significant and promising cores in the northern eastern and western ranges. Current level of protection indicates nearly 30% of the range is “protected”, but only about 25% is under national strict protected areas. Evolution of this coverage showed some periods of significant increase but interestingly the number of cores grew at a faster rate than overall proportion protected, likely indicating numerous discontinuous fragments, and not contiguous functional landscapes. This represents the most updated assessment of the distribution and conservation status for the species in Colombia, and indicates the numerous conservation opportunities, especially in most populated areas of the country. We found unique business environmental passive’s opportunities, including compensation and development potential, which are becoming more available in the country.

New records of Leopardus tigrinus (Carnivora: Felidae) in the Department of Santander, Colombia

Leopardus tigrinus is the smallest native cat species of America. In Colombia, the species has been rarely registered in agricultural landscapes and mostly registered in highlands of natural habitats like mountain forests, cloud forests, and paramos. However, recent trail-camera and roadkills records have increased the reports of this species into the country, showing that it is also living close to cities. Here, we report the trail camera observations of two individuals of L. tigrinus in the vicinity of Bucaramanga, Santander. This is the third and northern-most record of the Northern Tiger Cat in the department of Santander. Additionally, we made comments on key local challenges for the conservation of this threatened species.