Causation between Pathway Completion and Reduced Hospital Stay in Patients with Lung Cancer: a Retrospective Cohort Study Using Propensity Score Matching

Financial Estimation of the Uncertainty in Medicine Using Present Value of Medical Fees and a Mortality Risk Prediction Model: a Retrospective Cohort Study

This study aimed to develop a method to enable the financial estimation of each patient’s uncertainty without focusing on healthcare technology. We define financial uncertainty (FU) as the difference between an actual amount of claim (AC) and the discounted present value of the AC (DAC). DAC can be calculated based on a discounted present value calculated using a cash flow, a period of investment, and a discount rate. The present study considered these three items as AC, the length of hospital stay, and the predicted mortality rate. The mortality prediction model was built using typical data items in standard level electronic medical records such as sex, age, and disease information. The performance of the prediction model was moderate because an area under curve was approximately 85%. The empirical analysis primarily compares the FU of the top 20 diseases with the actual AC using a retrospective cohort in the University of Miyazaki Hospital. The observational period is 5 years, from April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2018. The analysis demonstrates that the proportion of FU to actual AC is higher than 20% in low-weight children, patients with leukemia, brain tumor, myeloid leukemia, or non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. For these diseases, patients cannot avoid long hospitalization; therefore, the medical fee payment system should be designed based on uncertainty. Our method is both practical and generalizable because it uses a small number of data items that are required in standard electronic medical records. This method contributes to the decision-making processes of health policymakers.

Event Surrogate from Clinical Pathway Completion to Daily Meal for Availability Extension Using Standard Electronic Medical Records: a Retrospective Cohort Study

This study aimed to improve generalizability of our previous study that analyzed clinical pathway (CP) completion. Although our previous study demonstrated that CP completion can reduce the length of hospital stay, it is possible for few medical organizations to extract the implementation of treatment registered on CP from typical electronic medical records. Therefore, we have defined a prospective event for event substitution, called meal completion (MC), in which patients can take their meal daily. Data were collected from April 2013 to March 2018 from the electronic medical records of the University of Miyazaki Hospital. We used propensity score matching to extract records from 8033 patients. Patients were further divided into the MC and non-MC groups; 2577 patients in each group were available for data analysis. The numbers of patients with CP completion were 646 (28.1%) in the MC group and 411 (18.2%) in the non-MC group. The P value of the chi-square test was <0.001. According to this result, there was the causation from MC to increase in CP completion. Additionally, it was possible to consider the inclusion relationship in all treatments (universal set), treatments registered on CP (subset of all treatments), and meals (subset of treatments registered on CP). In conclusion, MC can substitute for CP completion because the demonstration is appropriate for the Prentice criterion, which is often used for the evaluation of a surrogate endpoint.