Evaluation of the nonparametric estimation method in NONMEM VI: application to real data

Parametric and Nonparametric Population Pharmacokinetic Models to Assess Probability of Target Attainment of Imipenem Concentrations in Critically Ill Patients

Population pharmacokinetic modeling and simulation (M&S) are used to improve antibiotic dosing. Little is known about the differences in parametric and nonparametric M&S. Our objectives were to compare (1) the external validation of parametric and nonparametric models of imipenem in critically ill patients and (2) the probability of target attainment (PTA) calculations using simulations of both models. The M&S software used was NONMEM 7.2 (parametric) and Pmetrics 1.5.2 (nonparametric). The external predictive performance of both models was adequate for eGFRs ≥ 78 mL/min but insufficient for lower eGFRs, indicating that the models (developed using a population with eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min) could not be extrapolated to lower eGFRs. Simulations were performed for three dosing regimens and three eGFRs (90, 120, 150 mL/min). Fifty percent of the PTA results were similar for both models, while for the other 50% the nonparametric model resulted in lower MICs. This was explained by a higher estimated between-subject variability of the nonparametric model. Simulations indicated that 1000 mg q6h is suitable to reach MICs of 2 mg/L for eGFRs of 90-120 mL/min. For MICs of 4 mg/L and for higher eGFRs, dosing recommendations are missing due to largely different PTA values per model. The consequences of the different modeling approaches in clinical practice should be further investigated.

Nonparametric Methods in Population Pharmacokinetics

Population pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling is a widely used approach to analyze PK data obtained from groups of individuals, in both industry and academic research. The approach can also be used to analyze pharmacodynamic (PD) data and pooled PK/PD data. There are 2 main families of population PK methods: parametric and nonparametric. The objectives of this article are to present an overview of nonparametric methods used in population pharmacokinetic modeling and to explain their specific characteristics to inform scientists and clinicians about their potential value for data analysis, simulation, dosage design, and therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Nonparametric methods have several interesting characteristics for population PK analysis, including computation of exact likelihoods, the ability to accommodate parameter probability distributions of any shape (eg, non-Gaussian), and to detect subpopulations and outliers. Nonparametric population methods are also highly relevant for model-based TDM and design of individualized drug dosage regimens. Several algorithms have been developed to estimate model parameter values within an individual and compute that individual's dosage to achieve target drug exposure with maximum precision and accuracy. Nonparametric modeling methods for both population and individual PK analysis are available under user-friendly packages.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Imipenem in Critically Ill Patients: A Parametric and Nonparametric Model Converge on CKD-EPI Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate as an Impactful Covariate

BACKGROUND

Population pharmacokinetic (popPK) models for antibiotics are used to improve dosing strategies and individualize dosing by therapeutic drug monitoring. Little is known about the differences in results of parametric versus nonparametric popPK models and their potential consequences in clinical practice. We developed both parametric and nonparametric models of imipenem using data from critically ill patients and compared their results.

METHODS

Twenty-six critically ill patients treated with intravenous imipenem/cilastatin were included in this study. Median estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measured by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation was 116 mL/min/1.73 m2 (interquartile range 104-124) at inclusion. The usual dosing regimen was 500 mg/500 mg four times daily. On average, five imipenem levels per patient (138 levels in total) were drawn as peak, intermediate, and trough levels. Imipenem concentration-time profiles were analyzed using parametric (NONMEM 7.2) and nonparametric (Pmetrics 1.5.2) popPK software.

RESULTS

For both methods, data were best described by a model with two distribution compartments and the CKD-EPI eGFR equation unadjusted for body surface area as a covariate on the elimination rate constant (Ke). The parametric population parameter estimates were Ke 0.637 h-1 (between-subject variability [BSV]: 19.0% coefficient of variation [CV]) and central distribution volume (Vc) 29.6 L (without BSV). The nonparametric values were Ke 0.681 h-1 (34.0% CV) and Vc 31.1 L (42.6% CV).

CONCLUSIONS

Both models described imipenem popPK well; the parameter estimates were comparable and the included covariate was identical. However, estimated BSV was higher in the nonparametric model. This may have consequences for estimated exposure during dosing simulations and should be further investigated in simulation studies.

Pharmacology-based toxicity assessment: towards quantitative risk prediction in humans

Despite ongoing efforts to better understand the mechanisms underlying safety and toxicity, ~30% of the attrition in drug discovery and development is still due to safety concerns. Changes in current practice regarding the assessment of safety and toxicity are required to reduce late stage attrition and enable effective development of novel medicines. This review focuses on the implications of empirical evidence generation for the evaluation of safety and toxicity during drug development. A shift in paradigm is needed to (i) ensure that pharmacological concepts are incorporated into the evaluation of safety and toxicity; (ii) facilitate the integration of historical evidence and thereby the translation of findings across species as well as between in vitro and in vivo experiments and (iii) promote the use of experimental protocols tailored to address specific safety and toxicity questions. Based on historical examples, we highlight the challenges for the early characterisation of the safety profile of a new molecule and discuss how model-based methodologies can be applied for the design and analysis of experimental protocols. Issues relative to the scientific rationale are categorised and presented as a hierarchical tree describing the decision-making process. Focus is given to four different areas, namely, optimisation, translation, analytical construct and decision criteria. From a methodological perspective, the relevance of quantitative methods for estimation and extrapolation of risk from toxicology and safety pharmacology experimental protocols, such as points of departure and potency, is discussed in light of advancements in population and Bayesian modelling techniques (e.g. non-linear mixed effects modelling). Their use in the evaluation of pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships (PKPD) has enabled great insight into the dose rationale for medicines in humans, both in terms of efficacy and adverse events. Comparable benefits can be anticipated for the assessment of safety and toxicity profile of novel molecules.

Population pharmacokinetics of metronidazole evaluated using scavenged samples from preterm infants

Pharmacokinetic (PK) studies in preterm infants are rarely conducted due to the research challenges posed by this population. To overcome these challenges, minimal-risk methods such as scavenged sampling can be used to evaluate the PK of commonly used drugs in this population. We evaluated the population PK of metronidazole using targeted sparse sampling and scavenged samples from infants that were ≤ 32 weeks of gestational age at birth and <120 postnatal days. A 5-center study was performed. A population PK model using nonlinear mixed-effect modeling (NONMEM) was developed. Covariate effects were evaluated based on estimated precision and clinical significance. Using the individual Bayesian PK estimates from the final population PK model and the dosing regimen used for each subject, the proportion of subjects achieving the therapeutic target of trough concentrations >8 mg/liter was calculated. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the adequacy of different dosing recommendations per gestational age group. Thirty-two preterm infants were enrolled: the median (range) gestational age at birth was 27 (22 to 32) weeks, postnatal age was 41 (0 to 97) days, postmenstrual age (PMA) was 32 (24 to 43) weeks, and weight was 1,495 (678 to 3,850) g. The final PK data set contained 116 samples; 104/116 (90%) were scavenged from discarded clinical specimens. Metronidazole population PK was best described by a 1-compartment model. The population mean clearance (CL; liter/h) was determined as 0.0397 × (weight/1.5) × (PMA/32)²·⁴⁹ using a volume of distribution (V) (liter) of 1.07 × (weight/1.5). The relative standard errors around parameter estimates ranged between 11% and 30%. On average, metronidazole concentrations in scavenged samples were 30% lower than those measured in scheduled blood draws. The majority of infants (>70%) met predefined pharmacodynamic efficacy targets. A new, simplified, postmenstrual-age-based dosing regimen is recommended for this population. Minimal-risk methods such as scavenged PK sampling provided meaningful information related to development of metronidazole PK models and dosing recommendations.