Solar Radiation Estimation in Mediterranean Climate by Weather Variables Using a Novel Bayesian Model Averaging and Machine Learning Methods

Designing a reliable machine learning system for accurately estimating the ultimate condition of FRP-confined concrete

Precisely forecasting how concrete reinforced with fiber-reinforced polymers (FRP) responds under compression is essential for fine-tuning structural designs, ensuring constructions fulfill safety criteria, avoiding overdesigning, and consequently minimizing material expenses and environmental impact. Therefore, this study explores the viability of gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT), random forest (RF), artificial neural network-multilayer perceptron (ANNMLP) and artificial neural network-radial basis function (ANNRBF) in predicting the compressive behavior of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP)-confined concrete at ultimate. The accuracy of the proposed machine learning approaches was evaluated by comparing them with several empirical models concerning three different measures, including root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute errors (MAE), and determination coefficient (R2). In this study, the evaluations were conducted using a substantial collection of axial compression test data involving 765 circular specimens of FRP-confined concrete assembled from published sources. The results indicate that the proposed GBRT algorithm considerably enhances the performance of machine learning models and empirical approaches for predicting strength ratio of confinement (f'cc/f'co) by an average improvement in RMSE as 17.3%, 0.65%, 66.81%, 46.12%, 46.31%, 46.87% and 69.94% compared to RF, ANNMLP, ANNRBF, and four applied empirical models, respectively. It is also found that the proposed ANNMLP algorithm exhibits notable superiority compared to other models in terms of reducing RMSE values as 9.67%, 11.29%, 75.11%, 68.83%, 73.64%, 69.49% and 83.74% compared to GBRT, RF, ANNRBF and four applied empirical models for predicting strain ratio of confinement (εcc/εco), respectively. The superior performance of the GBRT and ANNMLP compared to other methods in predicting the strength and strain ratio confinements is important in evaluating structural integrity, guaranteeing secure functionality, and streamlining engineering plans for effective utilization of FRP confinement in building projects.

Development of a robust daily soil temperature estimation in semi-arid continental climate using meteorological predictors based on computational intelligent paradigms

Changes in soil temperature (ST) play an important role in the main mechanisms within the soil, including biological and chemical activities. For instance, they affect the microbial community composition, the speed at which soil organic matter breaks down and becomes minerals. Moreover, the growth and physiological activity of plants are directly influenced by the ST. Additionally, ST indirectly affects plant growth by influencing the accessibility of nutrients in the soil. Therefore, designing an efficient tool for ST estimating at different depths is useful for soil studies by considering meteorological parameters as input parameters, maximal air temperature, minimal air temperature, maximal air relative humidity, minimal air relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed. This investigation employed various statistical metrics to evaluate the efficacy of the implemented models. These metrics encompassed the correlation coefficient (r), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency, and mean absolute error (MAE). Hence, this study presented several artificial intelligence-based models, MLPANN, SVR, RFR, and GPR for building robust predictive tools for daily scale ST estimation at 05, 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100cm soil depths. The suggested models are evaluated at two meteorological stations (i.e., Sulaimani and Dukan) located in Kurdistan region, Iraq. Based on assessment of outcomes of this study, the suggested models exhibited exceptional predictive capabilities and comparison of the results showed that among the proposed frameworks, GPR yielded the best results for 05, 10, 20, and 100cm soil depths, with RMSE values of 1.814°C, 1.652°C, 1.773°C, and 2.891°C, respectively. Also, for 50cm soil depth, MLPANN performed the best with an RMSE of 2.289°C at Sulaimani station using the RMSE during the validation phase. Furthermore, GPR produced the most superior outcomes for 10cm, 30cm, and 50cm soil depths, with RMSE values of 1.753°C, 2.270°C, and 2.631°C, respectively. In addition, for 05cm soil depth, SVR achieved the highest level of performance with an RMSE of 1.950°C at Dukan station. The results obtained in this research confirmed that the suggested models have the potential to be effectively used as daily predictive tools at different stations and various depths.

Bayesian Model Averaging: A Unique Model Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Daily Streamflow Based on Different Antecedent Time Series

Streamflow forecasting is a vital task for hydrology and water resources engineering, and the different artificial intelligence (AI) approaches have been employed for this purposes until now. Additionally, the forecasting accuracy and uncertainty estimation are the meaningful assignments that need to be recognized. The addressed research investigates the potential of novel ensemble approach, Bayesian model averaging (BMA), in streamflow forecasting using daily time series data from two stations (i.e., Hongcheon and Jucheon), South Korea. Six categories (i.e., M1–M6) of input combination using different antecedent times were employed for streamflow forecasting. The outcomes of BMA model were compared with those of multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5 model tree (M5Tree), and Kernel extreme learning machines (KELM) models considering four assessment indexes, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient (R), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results revealed the superior accuracy of BMA model over three machine learning models in daily streamflow forecasting. Considering RMSE values among the best models during testing phase, the best BMA model (i.e., BMA2) enhanced the forecasting accuracy of MARS1, M5Tree4, and KELM3 models by 5.2%, 5.8%, and 3.4% in Hongcheon station. Additionally, the best BMA model (i.e., BMA1) improved the forecasting accuracy of MARS1, M5Tree1, and KELM1 models by 6.7%, 9.5%, and 3.7% in Jucheon station. In addition, the best BMA models in both stations allowed the uncertainty estimation, and produced higher uncertainty of peak flows compared to that of low flows. As one of the most robust and effective tools, therefore, the BMA model can be successfully employed for streamflow forecasting with different antecedent times.