Virtual Clinical Studies to Examine the Probability Distribution of the AUC at Target Tissues Using Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling: Application to Analyses of the Effect of Genetic Polymorphism of Enzymes and Transporters on Irinotecan Induced Side Effects

Applications of model simulation in pharmacological fields and the problems of theoretical reliability

The use of mathematical models has become increasingly prevalent in pharmacological fields, particularly in drug development processes. These models are instrumental in tasks such as designing clinical trials and assessing factors like efficacy, toxicity, and clinical practice. Various types of models have been developed and documented. Nevertheless, emphasizing the reliability of parameter values is crucial, as they play a pivotal role in shaping the behavior of the system. In some instances, parameter values reported previously are treated as fixed values, which can lead to convergence towards values that deviate substantially from those found in actual biological systems. This is especially true when parameter values are determined through fitting to limited observations. To mitigate this risk, the reuse of parameter values from previous reports should be approached with a critical evaluation of their validity. Currently, there is a proposal for a simultaneous search for plausible values for all parameters using comprehensive search algorithms in both pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic or systems pharmacological models. Implementing these methodologies can help address issues related to parameter determination. Furthermore, integrating these approaches with methods developed in the field of machine-learning field has the potential to enhance the reliability of parameter values and the resulting model outputs.

Beyond the basics: A deep dive into parameter estimation for advanced PBPK and QSP models

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models and quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models have contributed to drug development strategies. The parameters of these models are commonly estimated by capturing observed values using the nonlinear least-squares method. Software packages for PBPK and QSP modeling provide a range of parameter estimation algorithms. To choose the most appropriate method, modelers need to understand the basic concept of each approach. This review provides a general introduction to the key points of parameter estimation with a focus on the PBPK and QSP models, and the respective parameter estimation algorithms. The latter part assesses the performance of five parameter estimation algorithms - the quasi-Newton method, Nelder-Mead method, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, and Cluster Gauss-Newton method - using three examples of PBPK and QSP modeling. The assessment revealed that some parameter estimation results were significantly influenced by the initial values. Moreover, the choice of algorithms demonstrating good estimation results heavily depends on factors such as model structure and the parameters to be estimated. To obtain credible parameter estimation results, it is advisable to conduct multiple rounds of parameter estimation under different conditions, employing various estimation algorithms.

Cluster Gauss-Newton method for a quick approximation of profile likelihood: With application to physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can be challenging to work with because they can have too many parameters to identify from observable data. The profile likelihood method can help solve this issue by determining parameter identifiability and confidence intervals, but it involves repetitive parameter optimizations that can be time-consuming. The Cluster Gauss-Newton method (CGNM) is a parameter estimation method that efficiently searches through a wide range of parameter space. In this study, we propose a method that approximates the profile likelihood by reusing intermediate computation results from CGNM, allowing us to obtain the upper bounds of the profile likelihood without conducting additional model evaluation. This method allows us to quickly draw approximate profile likelihoods for all unknown parameters. Additionally, the same approach can be used to draw two-dimensional profile likelihoods for all parameter combinations within seconds. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method on three PBPK models.

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling for investigating the effect of simeprevir on concomitant drugs and an endogenous biomarker of OATP1B

The orally available anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drug simeprevir exhibits nonlinear pharmacokinetics at the clinical doses due to saturation of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 metabolism and organic anion transporting peptide (OATP) 1B mediated hepatic uptake. Additionally, simeprevir increases exposures of concomitant drugs by CYP3A4 and OATP1B inhibition. The objective of this study was to develop physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models that could describe drug-drug interactions (DDIs) of simeprevir with concomitant drugs via CYP3A4 and OATP1B inhibition, and also to capture the effects on coproporphyrin-I (CP-I), an endogenous biomarker of OATP1B. PBPK modeling estimated unbound simeprevir inhibitory constant (Ki ) of 2.89 μM against CYP3A4 in the DDI results between simeprevir and midazolam in healthy volunteers. Then, we analyzed the DDIs between simeprevir and atorvastatin, a dual substrate of CYP3A4 and OATP1B, in healthy volunteers, and unbound Ki against OATP1B was estimated to be 0.00347 μM. Finally, we analyzed the increase in the blood level of CP-I by simeprevir to verify the Ki,OATP1B . Because CP-I was measured in subjects with HCV with various hepatic fibrosis state, Monte Carlo simulation was performed to involve the decreases in expression levels of hepatic CYP3A4 and OATP1B and their interindividual variabilities. The PBPK modeling coupled with Monte Carlo simulation using the Ki,OATP1B value obtained from atorvastatin study reasonably recovered the observed relationship between CP-I and simeprevir blood levels. In conclusion, the simeprevir PBPK model developed in this study can quantitatively describe the increase in exposures of concomitant drugs and an endogenous biomarker via inhibition of CYP3A4 and OATP1B.

All Roads Lead to Rome: Enhancing the Probability of Target Attainment with Different Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modelling Approaches

In light of rising antimicrobial resistance and a decreasing number of antibiotics with novel modes of action, it is of utmost importance to accelerate development of novel treatment options. One aspect of acceleration is to understand pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of drugs and to assess the probability of target attainment (PTA). Several in vitro and in vivo methods are deployed to determine these parameters, such as time-kill-curves, hollow-fiber infection models or animal models. However, to date the use of in silico methods to predict PK/PD and PTA is increasing. Since there is not just one way to perform the in silico analysis, we embarked on reviewing for which indications and how PK and PK/PD models as well as PTA analysis has been used to contribute to the understanding of the PK and PD of a drug. Therefore, we examined four recent examples in more detail, namely ceftazidime-avibactam, omadacycline, gepotidacin and zoliflodacin as well as cefiderocol. Whereas the first two compound classes mainly relied on the ‘classical’ development path and PK/PD was only deployed after approval, cefiderocol highly profited from in silico techniques that led to its approval. Finally, this review shall highlight current developments and possibilities to accelerate drug development, especially for anti-infectives.

Reviewing Data Integrated for PBPK Model Development to Predict Metabolic Drug-Drug Interactions: Shifting Perspectives and Emerging Trends

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetics (PBPK) modeling is a robust tool that supports drug development and the pharmaceutical industry and regulatory authorities. Implementation of predictive systems in the clinics is more than ever a reality, resulting in a surge of interest for PBPK models by clinicians. We aimed to establish a repository of available PBPK models developed to date to predict drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in the different therapeutic areas by integrating intrinsic and extrinsic factors such as genetic polymorphisms of the cytochromes or environmental clues. This work includes peer-reviewed publications and models developed in the literature from October 2017 to January 2021. Information about the software, type of model, size, and population model was extracted for each article. In general, modeling was mainly done for DDI prediction via Simcyp^® software and Full PBPK. Overall, the necessary physiological and physio-pathological parameters, such as weight, BMI, liver or kidney function, relative to the drug absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination and to the population studied for model construction was publicly available. Of the 46 articles, 32 sensibly predicted DDI potentials, but only 23% integrated the genetic aspect to the developed models. Marked differences in concentration time profiles and maximum plasma concentration could be explained by the significant precision of the input parameters such as Tissue: plasma partition coefficients, protein abundance, or Ki values. In conclusion, the models show a good correlation between the predicted and observed plasma concentration values. These correlations are all the more pronounced as the model is rich in data representative of the population and the molecule in question. PBPK for DDI prediction is a promising approach in clinical, and harmonization of clearance prediction may be helped by a consensus on selecting the best data to use for PBPK model development.

Application of the Extended Clearance Classification System (ECCS) in Drug Discovery and Development: Selection of Appropriate In Vitro Tools and Clearance Prediction

In vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) to predict human hepatic clearance, including metabolism and transport, requires extensive experimental resources. In addition, there may be technical challenges to measure low clearance values. Therefore, prospective identification of rate-determining step(s) in hepatic clearance through application of the Extended Clearance Classification System (ECCS) could be beneficial for optimal compound characterization. IVIVE for hepatic intrinsic clearance (CLint,h) prediction is conducted for a set of 36 marketed drugs with low-to-high in vivo clearance, which are substrates of metabolic enzymes and active uptake transporters in the liver. The compounds were assigned to the ECCS classes, and CLint,h, estimated with HepatoPac (a micropatterned hepatocyte coculture system), was compared with values calculated based on suspended hepatocyte incubates. An apparent permeability threshold (apical to basal) of 50 nm/s in LLC-PK1 cells proved optimal for ECCS classification. A reasonable performance of the IVIVE for compounds across multiple classes using HepatoPac was achieved (with 2-3-fold error), except for substrates of uptake transporters (class 3b), for which scaling of uptake clearance using plated hepatocytes is more appropriate. Irrespective of the ECCS assignment, metabolic clearance can be estimated well using HepatoPac. The validation and approach elaborated in the present study can result in proposed decision trees for the selection of the optimal in vitro assays guided by ECCS class assignment, to support compound optimization and candidate selection. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Characterization of the rate-determining step(s) in hepatic elimination could be on the critical path of compound optimization during drug discovery. This study demonstrated that HepatoPac and plated hepatocytes are suitable tools for the estimation of metabolic and active uptake clearance, respectively, for a larger set of marketed drugs, supporting a comprehensive strategy to select optimal in vitro tools and to achieve Extended Clearance Classification System-dependent in vitro to in vivo extrapolation for human clearance prediction.

Utilization of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling in Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics: an Overview

The purpose of this review was to assess the advancement of applications for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling in various therapeutic areas. We conducted a PubMed search, and 166 articles published between 2012 and 2018 on FDA-approved drug products were selected for further review. Qualifying publications were summarized according to therapeutic area, medication(s) studied, pharmacokinetic model type utilized, simulator program used, and the applications of that modeling. The results showed a 13-fold increase in the number of papers published from 2012 to 2018, with the largest proportion of articles dedicated to the areas of infectious diseases, oncology, and neurology, and application extensions including prediction of drug-drug interactions due to metabolism and/or transporter-mediated effects and understanding drug kinetics in special populations. In addition, we profiled several high-impact studies whose results were used to guide package insert information and formulate dose recommendations. These results show that while utilization of PBPK modeling has drastically increased over the past several years, regulatory support, lack of easy-to-use systems for clinicians, and challenges with model validation remain major challenges for the widespread adoption of this practice in institutional and ambulatory settings. However, PBPK modeling will continue to be a useful tool in the future to assess therapeutic drug monitoring and the growing field of personalized medicine.

Jiawei Xianglian Decoction (JWXLD), a Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), Alleviates CPT-11-Induced Diarrhea in Mice

Irinotecan (CPT-11) is used for therapy of various cancers. However, it has several serious adverse reactions such as diarrhea which is caused by SN-38, the active form of CPT-11. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of Jiawei xianglian decoction (JWXLD), which has been widely used for the treatment of diarrhea in China. In this study, a mouse model with delayed diarrhea was generated by CPT-11. Real-time PCR and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were performed to explore intestinal microflora and inflammatory cytokine. Hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining was used to analyze tissue morphology. We found that 0.12, 0.23, and 0.46 g JWXLD significantly reduced the severity of CPT-11-induced diarrhea. The levels of Lactobacillus (Lacto) and Bifidobacterium (Bifid) were significantly downregulated by CPT-11, and these effects can be reversed by JWXLD treatment. Furthermore, JWXLD was observed to decrease the activity of β-glucuronidase (β-GD). Histopathological data showed that CPT-11 induced severe intestinal mucosal injury, which was characterized as grade 6, and JWXLD significantly alleviated the injury. In addition, CPT-11 increased the productions of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), tumor necrosis factor-beta (TNF-β), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and interleukin-1 (IL-1), but decreased interleukin-15 (IL-15), interleukin-7 (IL-7), and uridine diphosphate-glucuronosyltransferase 1A1 (UGT1A1). In conclusion, JWXLD can counteract these effects caused by CPT-11 treatment. JWXLD could alleviate CPT-11-induced diarrhea.

Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling Analysis for Quantitative Prediction of Renal Transporter-Mediated Interactions Between Metformin and Cimetidine

Metformin is an important antidiabetic drug and often used as a probe for drug–drug interactions (DDIs) mediated by renal transporters. Despite evidence supporting the inhibition of multidrug and toxin extrusion proteins as the likely DDI mechanism, the previously reported physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model required the substantial lowering of the inhibition constant values of cimetidine for multidrug and toxin extrusion proteins from those obtained in vitro to capture the clinical DDI data between metformin and cimetidine.¹ We constructed new PBPK models in which the transporter‐mediated uptake of metformin is driven by a constant membrane potential. Our models successfully captured the clinical DDI data using in vitro inhibition constant values and supported the inhibition of multidrug and toxin extrusion proteins by cimetidine as the DDI mechanism upon sensitivity analysis and data fitting. Our refined PBPK models may facilitate prediction approaches for DDI involving metformin using in vitro inhibition constant values.

Application of PBPK Modeling and Virtual Clinical Study Approaches to Predict the Outcomes of CYP2D6 Genotype-Guided Dosing of Tamoxifen

The Tamoxifen Response by CYP2D6 Genotype‐based Treatment‐1 (TARGET‐1) study (n = 180) was conducted from 2012–2017 in Japan to determine the efficacy of tamoxifen dosing guided by cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) genotypes. To predict its outcomes prior to completion, we constructed the comprehensive physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models of tamoxifen and its metabolites and performed virtual TARGET‐1 studies. Our analyses indicated that the expected probability to achieve the end point (demonstrating the superior efficacy of the escalated tamoxifen dose over the standard dose in patients carrying CYP2D6 variants) was 0.469 on average. As the population size of this virtual clinical study (VCS) increased, the expected probability was substantially increased (0.674 for n = 260). Our analyses also informed that the probability to achieve the end point in the TARGET‐1 study was negatively impacted by a large variability in endoxifen levels. Our current efforts demonstrate the promising utility of the PBPK modeling and VCS approaches in prospectively designing effective clinical trials.

Quantitative Analysis of Complex Drug-Drug Interactions between Cerivastatin and Metabolism/Transport Inhibitors Using Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

Cerivastatin (CER) was withdrawn from the world market because of lethal rhabdomyolysis. Coadministrations of CER and cyclosporine A (CsA) or gemfibrozil (GEM) have been reported to increase the CER blood concentration. CsA is an inhibitor of organic anion transporting polypeptide (OATP)1B1 and CYP3A4, and GEM and its glucuronide (GEM-glu) inhibit OATP1B1 and CYP2C8. The purpose of this study was to describe the transporter-/enzyme-mediated drug-drug interactions (DDIs) of CER with CsA or GEM based on unified physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models and to investigate whether the DDIs can be quantitatively analyzed by a bottom-up approach. Initially, the PBPK models for CER and GEM/GEM-glu were constructed based on the previously reported standard protocols. Next, the drug-dependent parameters were optimized by Cluster Newton Method. Thus, described concentration-time profiles for CER and GEM/GEM-glu agreed well with the clinically observed data. The DDIs were then simulated using the established PBPK models with previously obtained in vitro inhibition constants of CsA or GEM/GEM-glu against the OATP1B1 and cytochrome P450s. DDIs with the inhibitors were underestimated compared with observed data using the geometric means of reported values. To search for better described parameters within the range of in vitro values, sensitivity analyses were performed for DDIs of CER. Using the in vitro parameter sets selected by sensitivity analyses, these DDIs were well reproduced, indicating that the present PBPK models were able to describe adequately the clinical DDIs based on a bottom-up approach. The approaches in this study would be applicable to the prediction of other DDIs involving both transporters and metabolic enzymes.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Bosentan Identifies the Saturable Hepatic Uptake As a Major Contributor to Its Nonlinear Pharmacokinetics

Bosentan is a substrate of hepatic uptake transporter organic anion-transporting polypeptides (OATPs), and undergoes extensive hepatic metabolism by cytochrome P450 (P450), namely, CYP3A4 and CYP2C9. Several clinical investigations have reported a nonlinear relationship between bosentan doses and its systemic exposure, which likely involves the saturation of OATP-mediated uptake, P450-mediated metabolism, or both in the liver. Yet, the underlying causes for the nonlinear bosentan pharmacokinetics are not fully delineated. To address this, we performed physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling analyses for bosentan after its intravenous administration at different doses. As a bottom-up approach, PBPK modeling analyses were performed using in vitro kinetic parameters, other relevant parameters, and scaling factors. As top-down approaches, three different types of PBPK models that incorporate the saturation of hepatic uptake, metabolism, or both were compared. The prediction from the bottom-up approach (models 1 and 2) yielded blood bosentan concentration-time profiles and their systemic clearance values that were not in good agreement with the clinically observed data. From top-down approaches (models 3, 4, 5-1, and 5-2), the prediction accuracy was best only with the incorporation of the saturable hepatic uptake for bosentan. Taken together, the PBPK models for bosentan were successfully established, and the comparison of different PBPK models identified the saturation of the hepatic uptake process as a major contributing factor for the nonlinear pharmacokinetics of bosentan.

Evaluation of transporters in drug development: Current status and contemporary issues

Transporters govern the access of molecules to cells or their exit from cells, thereby controlling the overall distribution of drugs to their intracellular site of action. Clinically relevant drug-drug interactions mediated by transporters are of increasing interest in drug development. Drug transporters, acting alone or in concert with drug metabolizing enzymes, can play an important role in modulating drug absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion, thus affecting the pharmacokinetics and/or pharmacodynamics of a drug. The drug interaction guidance documents from regulatory agencies include various decision criteria that may be used to predict the need for in vivo assessment of transporter-mediated drug-drug interactions. Regulatory science research continues to assess the prediction performances of various criteria as well as to examine the strength and limitations of each prediction criterion to foster discussions related to harmonized decision criteria that may be used to facilitate global drug development. This review discusses the role of transporters in drug development with a focus on methodologies in assessing transporter-mediated drug-drug interactions, challenges in both in vitro and in vivo assessments of transporters, and emerging transporter research areas including biomarkers, assessment of tissue concentrations, and effect of diseases on transporters.