Modelling drug-related morbidity in Sweden using an expert panel of pharmacists’

The Use of Expert Elicitation among Computational Modeling Studies in Health Research: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Expert elicitation (EE) has been used across disciplines to estimate input parameters for computational modeling research when information is sparse or conflictual.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic review to compare EE methods used to generate model input parameters in health research.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Web of Science.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY

Modeling studies that reported the use of EE as the source for model input probabilities were included if they were published in English before June 2021 and reported health outcomes.

DATA ABSTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Studies were classified as "formal" EE methods if they explicitly reported details of their elicitation process. Those that stated use of expert opinion but provided limited information were classified as "indeterminate" methods. In both groups, we abstracted citation details, study design, modeling methodology, a description of elicited parameters, and elicitation methods. Comparisons were made between elicitation methods.

STUDY APPRAISAL

Studies that conducted a formal EE were appraised on the reporting quality of the EE. Quality appraisal was not conducted for studies of indeterminate methods.

RESULTS

The search identified 1520 articles, of which 152 were included. Of the included studies, 40 were classified as formal EE and 112 as indeterminate methods. Most studies were cost-effectiveness analyses (77.6%). Forty-seven indeterminate method studies provided no information on methods for generating estimates. Among formal EEs, the average reporting quality score was 9 out of 16.

LIMITATIONS

Elicitations on nonhealth topics and those reported in the gray literature were not included.

CONCLUSIONS

We found poor reporting of EE methods used in modeling studies, making it difficult to discern meaningful differences in approaches. Improved quality standards for EEs would improve the validity and replicability of computational models.

HIGHLIGHTS

We find extensive use of expert elicitation for the development of model input parameters, but most studies do not provide adequate details of their elicitation methods.Lack of reporting hinders greater discussion of the merits and challenges of using expert elicitation for model input parameter development.There is a need to establish expert elicitation best practices and reporting guidelines.

Medication-related problems and adverse drug reactions in Ethiopia: A systematic review

Medication-related problems (MRPs) are an important healthcare problem. This study aimed at reviewing the published literature in Ethiopia to estimate the prevalence of MRPs and to summarize associated factors. A comprehensive systematic search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, Google Scholar, and Google databases from inception to April 2020. Articles that addressed MRPs were eligible for inclusion. Article screening, data extraction, and study quality analysis were performed independently by two reviewers. Studies targeting specific disease condition were considered as specific, while the remaining were nonspecific. The prevalence of MRPs was then computed in medians and interquartile ranges (IQR), while associated factors were summarized in a table. Of the thirty-two studies included in this review, the majority of them (n = 24) targeted MRPs, while the remaining studies (n = 8) investigated adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Studies varied in the study design, study population, and definition of MRPs and ADRs used. The overall median prevalence was 70.8% (IQR = 61.0-80.2) with a range of 16.0% to 88.7%. The median prevalence of MRPs in specific and nonspecific patients was 71.2% (IQR = 60.7-71.2) and 69.3% (IQR = 60.7-82.0), respectively. In addition, a median of 36.6% (IQR = 10.0-85.7) of patients experienced ADRs. Indication-related and effectiveness-related MRPs were commonly reported in both specific and nonspecific patients, while noncompliance MRPs were more prevalent among specific patients than nonspecific patients. Increasing age, presence of co-morbidity, and an increasing number of drugs were the commonly identified contributing factors of MRPs. The review showed that more than two-thirds of the study participants developed MRPs. Hence, an integrated approach should be designed to improve the optimal use of pharmacotherapy to reduce the burden of MRPs. Further, future research should be undertaken to prepare cost-effective and efficient prevention mechanisms to reduce or halt the development of MRPs.

Development and content validation of an instrument to document the dispensing of prescribed medicines

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE

Qualified dispensing is fundamental for the promotion of the rational use of medicines. Documentation is an indicator of quality and one of the essential steps in the care process. However, in Brazil, there are no models of clinical documentation applicable to dispensing practices. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop and validate an instrument to document the dispensing process of prescribed medicines.

METHODS

A methodological development study was carried out from February 2017 to October 2017 in two stages, which were (i) the development of the instrument and (ii) content validation of the proposed instrument. The development phase comprised three stages, which were (i) the elaboration of the prototype based on a previously performed systematic review, (ii) academic brainstorming and (iii) a pre-Delphi consensus. The content validation process was performed using the Delphi technique. The instrument was sent to 40 experts with experience in dispensing, and the consensus among them was calculated using the content validity index (CVI). The study was approved by the Ethics Committee, and all participants signed an informed consent document detailing the terms of the study.

RESULTS

In the development stage, three versions of the instrument were generated, which were the prototype, version 1 (changed after academic brainstorming) and version 2 (changed after the pre-Delphi). In the content validation process of version 2 of the instrument, 23 experts returned their evaluation in the first round of the Delphi process and 17 in the second. All the items obtained a CVI >0.83, which resulted in the validation of the instrument. The final instrument comprised the following sections: general information, the identification of technical and legal problems of prescriptions, the conduct for the resolution of the technical and legal problems of prescriptions, medication dispensed, suspected drug-related problems, verbal guidance, written guidance, referral and the referral result.

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

The developed and validated instrument presents the main variables that should be documented during the dispensing process.

Drug-Related Morbidity in Brazil: A Cost-of-Illness Model

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the proportion of patients with drug-related morbidities (DRMs), DRM preventability, and the cost of illness of the DRMs in Brazil.

METHODS

We used the decision-analytic model initially developed by Johnson and Bootman (Drug-related morbidity and mortality. A cost-of-illness model. J Manag Care Pharm 1996;2:39-47), which was adapted to the reality of the present study. A hypothetical cohort of patients in ambulatory care setting was simulated considering the perspective of the Brazilian public health system. Direct costs related to health care were obtained from the national databases, and the probability of occurrence of DRMs was established by a panel of clinical experts. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

An estimated 59% ± 14% of all patients assisted by the health system suffer some DRMs. Given these cases, 53% ± 18% were considered preventable. The average cost of managing a patient with any DRM was US $155. The cost of illness of the DRMs in Brazil would account for nearly US $18 billion (US $9-$27 billion) (best and worst case scenarium) annually. This amount is 5 times higher than what the Ministry of Health spends to guarantee free medicines in Brazil. Hospitalizations and long-term stays in hospital correspond to 75% of this cost. The sensitivity analysis showed that the model is sensitive to variations in these two outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

According to the model, a large proportion of patients experience DRM and the economic impact to solve these problems is substantial for the health system. Considering that more than half of these cases are preventable, it could be possible to achieve an enormous saving of resources through actions that improve the process of medication use.

Pharmacoepidemiology at Nordic School of Public Health NHV: Examples from 1999 to 2014

BACKGROUND

Pharmacoepidemiology is a branch of public health and had a place at the Nordic School of Public Health. Courses, Master's theses and Doctorates of Public Health (DrPH) in Pharmacoepidemiology were a relatively minor, but still important part of the school's activities.

METHODS

This paper gives a short background, followed by some snapshots of the activities at NHV, and then some illustrative case-studies. These case-studies list their own responsible co-authors and have separate reference lists.

RESULTS

In the Nordic context, NHV was a unique provider of training and research in pharmacoepidemiology, with single courses to complete DrPH training, as well as implementation of externally-funded research projects.

CONCLUSIONS

With the closure of NHV at the end of 2014, it is unclear if such a comprehensive approach towards pharmacoepidemiology will be found elsewhere in the Nordic countries.

Prevalence, nature and potential preventability of adverse drug events - a population-based medical record study of 4970 adults

AIMS

To estimate the 3 month prevalence of adverse drug events (ADEs), categories of ADEs and preventable ADEs, and the preventability of ADEs among adults in Sweden. Further, to identify drug classes and organ systems associated with ADEs and estimate their seriousness.

METHODS

A random sample of 5025 adults in a Swedish county council in 2008 was drawn from the Total Population Register. All their medical records in 29 inpatient care departments in three hospitals, 110 specialized outpatient clinics and 51 primary care units were reviewed retrospectively in a stepwise manner, and complemented with register data on dispensed drugs. ADEs, including adverse drug reactions (ADRs), sub-therapeutic effects of drug therapy (STEs), drug dependence and abuse, drug intoxications from overdose, and morbidities due to drug-related untreated indication, were detected during a 3 month study period, and assessed for preventability.

RESULTS

Among 4970 included individuals, the prevalence of ADEs was 12.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 11.1, 12.9%), and preventable ADEs 5.6% (95% CI 5.0, 6.2%). ADRs (6.9%; 95% CI 6.2, 7.6%) and STEs (6.4%; 95% CI 5.8, 7.1%) were more prevalent than the other ADEs. Of the ADEs, 38.8% (95% CI 35.8-41.9%) was preventable, varying by ADE category and seriousness. ADEs were frequently associated with nervous system and cardiovascular drugs, but the associated drugs and affected organs varied by ADE category.

CONCLUSIONS

The considerable burden of ADEs and preventable ADEs from commonly used drugs across care settings warrants large-scale efforts to redesign safer, higher quality healthcare systems. The heterogeneous nature of the ADE categories should be considered in research and clinical practice for preventing, detecting and mitigating ADEs.

Prevalence and perceived preventability of self-reported adverse drug events--a population-based survey of 7099 adults

Purpose

Adverse drug events (ADEs) are common and often preventable among inpatients, but self-reported ADEs have not been investigated in a representative sample of the general public. The objectives of this study were to estimate the 1-month prevalence of self-reported ADEs among the adult general public, and the perceived preventability of 2 ADE categories: adverse drug reactions (ADRs) and sub-therapeutic effects (STEs).

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, a postal survey was sent in October 2010 to a random sample of 13 931 Swedish residents aged ≥18 years. Self-reported ADEs experienced during the past month included ADRs, STEs, drug dependence, drug intoxications and morbidity due to drug-related untreated indication. ADEs could be associated with prescription, non-prescription or herbal drugs. The respondents estimated whether ADRs and STEs could have been prevented. ADE prevalences in age groups (18–44, 45–64, or ≥65 years) were compared.

Results

Of 7099 respondents (response rate 51.0%), ADEs were reported by 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 18.5–20.3%), and the prevalence did not differ by age group (p>0.05). The prevalences of self-reported ADRs, STEs, and morbidities due to drug-related untreated indications were 7.8% (7.2–8.4%), 7.6% (7.0–8.2%) and 8.1% (7.5–8.7%), respectively. The prevalence of self-reported drug dependence was 2.2% (1.9–2.6%), and drug intoxications 0.2% (0.1–0.3%). The respondents considered 19.2% (14.8–23.6%) of ADRs and STEs preventable. Although reported drugs varied between ADE categories, most ADEs were attributable to commonly dispensed drugs. Drugs reported for all and preventable events were similar.

Conclusions

One-fifth of the adult general public across age groups reported ADEs during the past month, indicating a need for prevention strategies beyond hospitalised patients. For this, the underlying causes of ADEs should increasingly be investigated. The high burden of ADEs and preventable ADEs from widely used drugs across care settings supports redesigning a safer healthcare system to adequately tackle the problem.