Declining fertility on the frontier: the Ecuadorian Amazon

A Review of Small Farmer Land Use and Deforestation in Tropical Forest Frontiers: Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods

Forest conversion for agriculture is the most expansive signature of human occupation on the Earth’s surface. This paper develops a conceptual model of factors underlying frontier agricultural expansion—the predominant driver of deforestation worldwide—from the perspective of small farm households—the majority of farmers globally. The framework consists of four causal rubrics: demographic, socioeconomic, political–economic, and ecological. Following this approach, the article explores the current state of knowledge on tropical deforestation in tropical agricultural frontiers with a focus on Latin America, the region of greatest deforestation worldwide during recent decades. Neo-Malthusian arguments notwithstanding, in many tropical nations, deforestation has proceeded unabated in recent years despite declining rural populations. However, evidence from the global-to-household scale suggests that population size and composition are also related to farm forest conversion. Existing particularist or behaviorialist theories sometimes fail to capture key geographical and temporal dimensions, yet studies support the notion that certain cultural, individual, and household characteristics are crucial determinants of forest clearing. Conversely, while institutional arguments sometimes fail to emphasize that the ultimate land use change agents are local resource users, their livelihood decisions are shaped and constrained by policies governing economic subsidies, and market and infrastructure development. Further, although ecological change is usually modeled as an outcome in the deforestation literature, increasingly acute climate change and natural farm endowments form a dynamic tabula rasa on which household land use decisions are enabled. To more fully comprehend frontier forest conversion and to enhance protection and conservation while promoting vital local livelihoods, future research may fruitfully investigate the interaction of demographic, social, political, economic, and ecological factors across spatial scales and academic disciplines.

Positive psychology as a strategy for promoting sustainable population policies

Demographic stability constitutes a paramount global environmental objective. Yet, decades of efforts, highlighting the perils of overpopulation, have failed to slow the rapid global population growth. In considering an alternative strategy, insights from the field of positive psychology are explored for their potential to inform future demographic policies. After briefly reviewing sustainable advocacy efforts, different theories behind individual fertility decisions are presented. Following, key components of prominent successful family planning interventions are analysed using a 'positive psychology' perspective. Three 'positive psychology' strategies are explored for their potential to inform sustainable population: a "direct" approach that emphasizes individual benefits rather than indirect gains through mitigation of damages; an emphasis on the convergence between the collective and individual benefits of two--child families; and application of behavioral change theories in demographic policies to better facilitate sustainable individual fertility decisions. The paper posits that a positive psychology conceptualization offers a promising way to re-think the design of demographic policies and frame sustainable population interventions.

Population and development in the Amazon: A longitudinal study of migrant settlers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

This paper examines changes over time for a full generation of migrant settlers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). Data were collected from a 2014 household survey covering a subsample of households surveyed previously in 1990 and 1999. We observed changes in demographic behavior, land use, forest cover, and living conditions. As the frontier develops, human fertility is continuing to decline with contraceptive prevalence rising. Meanwhile, out-migration from colonist households, largely to destinations within the region, persists. More households have secure land tenure than in 1999, and are better off as measured by possession of assets. There is continued growth in pasture, largely at the expense of forest. Farms still serve as an important livelihood source for families, though growing cities in the NEA are creating more non-agricultural economic opportunities. Our findings provide a snapshot of demographic, economic, land use, and livelihoods changes occurring in the NEA during the past quarter century, providing useful information for policymakers seeking to balance economic and environmental goals in order to promote sustainable development as well as protect biodiversity.

Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon

Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting.

Land cover change and fertility in West-Central Africa: rural livelihoods and the vicious circle model

The vicious circle argument, rooted in a neo-Malthusian tradition, states that resource scarcity increases the demand for child labor and leads to higher fertility. The rural livelihood framework, on the other hand, contends that households employ multiple strategies, only one of which involves adjusting their fertility levels as a response to environmental pressures. This study provides a unique test of both theories by examining the relationship between land cover change and fertility across hundreds of rural communities in four West-Central African countries. The findings reveal a complex relationship between natural capital and fertility. In communities where natural capital was initially low, a further decline in that capital is associated with both higher fertility preferences and levels. However, we find that fertility preferences and behavior are often discordant, with notable within-community differences in response to decline in natural capital across levels of household wealth.

Land use as a mediating factor of fertility in the Amazon

Despite implications for both humans and the environment, a scant body of research examines fertility in forest frontiers. This study examines the fertility-environment association using empirical data from Ecuadorian Amazon between 1980 and 1999. Fertility dramatically declined during this period, and our empirical models suggest that households' relationship to land partially explains this decline. Controlling for known fertility determinants such as age and education, women in households lacking land titles experienced a 27 % higher birth rate than did women in households with land titles. This suggests insecure land tenure was associated with higher fertility. Furthermore, each additional hectare of new pasture was associated with a 16 % higher birth rate, suggesting the potential role of a more stable and lucrative income source in supporting additional births. Findings from this research can help inform strategic policies to address sustainable development in frontier environments.

Impact of commercial farming on household reproductive strategies in Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine if commercial agriculture can lead to changes in peasant reproductive strategies in migrant agriculturalists from Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico.

METHODS

The reproductive histories of 746 women from Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico were collected. The sample was first divided into women who had reproduced within or outside of Calakmul (RC and RO, respectively) and these were further subdivided into those who lived in households practicing subsistence agriculture and those who turned agriculture into a business (Household Subsistence Agricultural Strategy (HSA) and Household Commercial Agricultural Strategy (HCA), respectively). Age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) differences were compared between strategies and place of reproduction. Comparisons between interbirth interval and age at which desired fertility was reached were done with a Kaplan-Meier life table-based statistic.

RESULTS

In both strategies, RC women increased ASFRs by reducing age at first birth, and HSA-RC women also reduced interbirth intervals. HCA women had lower ASFRs than HSA women. The latter had a natural fertility pattern while the former expressed a desire to stop reproducing at a younger age. HCA-RC women showed important fertility reductions after age 25 and HCA-RO women after age 30.

CONCLUSIONS

Fertility reductions in households that practice commercial versus those that practice subsistence agriculture were significant. Also, a "frontier" effect was observed that increased fertility over all, but HCA households were not as influenced by it.

Human migration, protected areas, and conservation outreach in Tanzania

A recent discussion debates the extent of human in-migration around protected areas (PAs) in the tropics. One proposed argument is that rural migrants move to bordering areas to access conservation outreach benefits. A counter proposal maintains that PAs have largely negative effects on local populations and that outreach initiatives even if successful present insufficient benefits to drive in-migration. Using data from Tanzania, we examined merits of statistical tests and spatial methods used previously to evaluate migration near PAs and applied hierarchical modeling with appropriate controls for demographic and geographic factors to advance the debate. Areas bordering national parks in Tanzania did not have elevated rates of in-migration. Low baseline population density and high vegetation productivity with low interannual variation rather than conservation outreach explained observed migration patterns. More generally we argue that to produce results of conservation policy significance, analyses must be conducted at appropriate scales, and we caution against use of demographic data without appropriate controls when drawing conclusions about migration dynamics.

Rural Agricultural Change and Fertility Transition in Nepal

Using longitudinal panel data from the Western Chitwan Valley of Nepal, this study investigates the impact of the use of modern farm technologies on fertility transition-specifically, the number of births in a farm household. Previous explanations for the slow pace of fertility transition in rural agricultural settings often argued that the demand for farm labor is the primary driver of high fertility. If this argument holds true, the use of modern farm technologies that are designed to carry out labor-intensive farm activities ought to substitute for farm labor and discourage births in farm families. However, little empirical evidence is available on the potential influence of the use of modern farm technologies on the fertility transition. To fill this gap, the panel data examined in this study provides an unusual opportunity to test this long standing, but unexplored, argument. The results demonstrate that the use of modern farm technologies, particularly the use of a tractor and other modern farm implements, reduce subsequent births in farm households. This offers important insight for understanding the fertility transition in Nepal, a setting that is experiencing high population growth and rapidly changing farming practices.

Natural and sexual selection in a monogamous historical human population

Whether and how human populations exposed to the agricultural revolution are still affected by Darwinian selection remains controversial among social scientists, biologists, and the general public. Although methods of studying selection in natural populations are well established, our understanding of selection in humans has been limited by the availability of suitable datasets. Here, we present a study comparing the maximum strengths of natural and sexual selection in humans that includes the effects of sex and wealth on different episodes of selection. Our dataset was compiled from church records of preindustrial Finnish populations characterized by socially imposed monogamy, and it contains a complete distribution of survival, mating, and reproductive success for 5,923 individuals born 1760-1849. Individual differences in early survival and fertility (natural selection) were responsible for most variation in fitness, even among wealthier individuals. Variance in mating success explained most of the higher variance in reproductive success in males compared with females, but mating success also influenced reproductive success in females, allowing for sexual selection to operate in both sexes. The detected opportunity for selection is in line with measurements for other species but higher than most previous reports for human samples. This disparity results from biological, demographic, economic, and social differences across populations as well as from failures by most previous studies to account for variation in fitness introduced by nonreproductive individuals. Our results emphasize that the demographic, cultural, and technological changes of the last 10,000 y did not preclude the potential for natural and sexual selection in our species.

Decoupling migration effects from income effects on reproduction in Central American migrant-sending households

Contemporary data for three Central American countries (Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Nicaragua) surveyed by the Latin American Migration Project were analyzed to determine if migration length and remittance transfers had an influence on fertility. The analysis was structured to separate societal influences on fertility attributable to migration from the income effects associated with remittance transfers. At the couple level, the odds that a birth would occur were negatively associated with an increase in U.S. remittance receipts and an increase in a wife’s migration duration. However, no correlation was found between length of male migration and couple fertility.

Morbidity and mortality disparities among colonist and indigenous populations in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Rural populations living in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA) experience the highest health burden of any region in the country. Two independent studies of colonist and indigenous groups living in the NEA are used to compare their morbidity and mortality experiences. Colonist data are from a probability sample of land plots in 1999, while indigenous data are from a representative sample of the five largest ethnicities (Quichua, Shuar, Huaorani, Cofan, Secoya) collected in 2001. Poisson regression was used to compare morbidity. Results indicate clear differences in health between populations. Indigenous groups had 30% higher probability of mortality and 63% higher incidence rate of all-cause morbidity compared to colonists. Vector-borne, chronic, gastrointestinal, and diseases of unknown origin were particularly high among indigenous groups. Factors associated with morbidity varied: morbidity rates were similar for the two youngest age groups (0-4 and 5-9), but indigenous people aged 15-39 and 40+ had almost double the morbidity compared to colonists; larger households, later months of data collection and less pollution were associated with less morbidity in both groups; better infrastructure access (electricity and roads) was generally associated with lower morbidity in both groups; and associations of land use were different by group with more cultivation of perennials and fewer annuals associated with less morbidity for colonists, but more for indigenous groups. These results demonstrate the health disparities that exist among indigenous and non-indigenous populations even when living in the same geographic region. Land use itself exemplifies the cultural and contextual differences that are evident in health, since land use decisions are related to broader demographic and economic factors that influence overall ecological and human health. Ongoing population-environment and/or environment-health research needs to recognize the broader factors involved when studying relationships between population health, development and deforestation.

Migration Within the Frontier: The Second Generation Colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Since the 1970s, migration to the Amazon has led to a growing human presence and resulting dramatic changes in the physical landscape of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon frontier, including considerable deforestation. Over time, a second demographic phenomenon has emerged with the children of the original migrants leaving settler farms to set out on their own. The vast majority have remained in the Amazon region, some contributing to further changes in land use via rural-rural migration to establish new farms and others to incipient urbanization. This paper uses longitudinal, multi-scale data on settler colonists between 1990 and 1999 to analyze rural-rural and rural-urban migration among second-generation colonists within the region. Following a description of migrants and settlers in terms of their individual, household and community characteristics, a multinomial discrete-time hazard model is used to estimate the determinants of out-migration of the second generation settlers to both urban and rural areas. We find significant differences in the determinants of migration to the two types of destinations in personal characteristics, human capital endowments, stage of farm and household lifecycles, migration networks, and access to community resources and infrastructure. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications of migrants' choice of rural versus urban destinations.

Rural Household Demographics, Livelihoods and the Environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of micro-level studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land-cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.

Forest clearing in the Ecuadorian Amazon: A study of patterns over space and time

This study tests four hypotheses related to forest clearing over time in Ecuador's northern Amazon: (1) a larger increase in population over time on a farm (finca) leads to more deforestation; (2) rates of forest clearing surrounding four primary reference communities differ (spatial heterogeneity); (3) fincas farther from towns/communities experience lower rates of forest clearing over time; and (4) forest clearing differs by finca settlement cohort, viz., by year of establishment of the finca. In this paper, we examine the relationship between forest clearing and key variables over time, and compare three statistical models-OLS, random effects, and spatial regression-to test hypotheses. Descriptive analyses indicate that 7-15% of forest area was cleared on fincas between 1990 and 1999; that more recently established fincas experienced more rapid forest clearing; and that population size and forest clearing are both related to distance from a major community. Controlling for key variables, model results indicate that an increase in population size is significantly related to more forest clearing; rates of forest clearing around the four major communities are not significantly different; distances separating fincas and communities are not significantly related to deforestation; and deforestation rates are higher among more recently established fincas. Key policy implications include the importance of reducing population growth and momentum through measures such as improving information about and provision of family planning services; increasing the low level of girls education to delay and reduce fertility; and expanding credit and agricultural extension services to increase agricultural intensification.

Resource management and fertility in Mexico's Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve: Campos, cash, and contraception in the lobster-fishing village of Punta Allen

This case study examines the link between marine resource management, and the universal contraceptive use among married couples in the lobster- fishing village of Punta Allen, located in the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Several reasons appear to contribute to small desired and actual family sizes. Some of these include a medical clinic staff effective in promoting family planning, cooperative and private resource ownership, changing cultural attitudes, geographical limitations to population and economic growth, and a desire to conserve the environment for aesthetic and economic motives. Lastly, families desired to preserve a sustained balance between benefiting from lobster harvests today and safeguarding this marine resource for their children in the future.