Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems

The socio-ecological resilience and sustainability implications of seafood supply chain disruption

Remaining resilient under disruption, while also being sustainable, is essential for continued and equitable seafood supply in a changing world. However, despite the wide application of resilience thinking to sustainability research and the multiple dimensions of social-ecological sustainability, it can be difficult to ascertain how to make a supply chain both resilient and sustainable. In this review, we draw upon the socio-ecological resilience and sustainability literature to identify links and highlight concepts for managing and monitoring adaptive and equitable seafood supply chains. We then review documented responses of seafood supply networks to disruption and detail a case study to describe the attributes of a resilient seafood supply system. Finally, we outline the implications of these responses for social (including wellbeing and equity), economic and environmental sustainability. Disruptions to supply chains were categorised based on their frequency of occurrence (episodic, chronic, cumulative) and underlying themes were derived from supply chain responses for each type of disruption. We found that seafood supply chains were resilient when they were diverse (in either products, markets, consumers or processing), connected, supported by governments at all scales, and where supply chain actors were able to learn and collaborate through trust-based relationships. With planning, infrastructure and systematic mapping, these attributes also can help to build socio-ecological sustainability and move towards more adaptive and equitable seafood supply.

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic

The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record-breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community-level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short-term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co-occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long-term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial-temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change.

Ocean resource use: building the coastal blue economy

Humans have relied on coastal resources for centuries. However, current growth in population and increased accessibility of coastal resources through technology have resulted in overcrowded and often conflicted spaces. The recent global move towards development of national blue economy strategies further highlights the increased focus on coastal resources to address a broad range of blue growth industries. The need to manage sustainable development and future exploitation of both over-utilised and emergent coastal resources is both a political and environmental complexity. To address this complexity, we draw on the perspectives of a multi-disciplinary team, utilising two in depth exemplary case studies in New Zealand and within the Myanmar Delta Landscape, to showcase barriers, pathways and actions that facilitate a move from Business as Usual (BAU) to a future aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN International Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030. We provide key recommendations to guide interest groups, and nations globally, towards sustainable utilisation, conservation and preservation of their marine environments in a fair and equitable way, and in collaboration with those who directly rely upon coastal ecosystems. We envision a sustainable future driven by conflict mitigation and resolution,  where:(i)Change is motivated and facilitated(ii)Coastal ecosystems are co-managed by multiple reliant groups(iii)Networks that maintain and enhance biodiversity are implemented(iv)Decision-making is equitable and based on ecosystem services(v)Knowledge of the marine realm is strengthened-'mapping the ocean of life'(vi)The interests of diverse user groups are balanced with a fair distribution of benefits.

Ocean resource use: building the coastal blue economy

Humans have relied on coastal resources for centuries. However, current growth in population and increased accessibility of coastal resources through technology have resulted in overcrowded and often conflicted spaces. The recent global move towards development of national blue economy strategies further highlights the increased focus on coastal resources to address a broad range of blue growth industries. The need to manage sustainable development and future exploitation of both over-utilised and emergent coastal resources is both a political and environmental complexity. To address this complexity, we draw on the perspectives of a multi-disciplinary team, utilising two in depth exemplary case studies in New Zealand and within the Myanmar Delta Landscape, to showcase barriers, pathways and actions that facilitate a move from Business as Usual (BAU) to a future aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN International Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030. We provide key recommendations to guide interest groups, and nations globally, towards sustainable utilisation, conservation and preservation of their marine environments in a fair and equitable way, and in collaboration with those who directly rely upon coastal ecosystems. We envision a sustainable future driven by conflict mitigation and resolution,  where:(i)Change is motivated and facilitated(ii)Coastal ecosystems are co-managed by multiple reliant groups(iii)Networks that maintain and enhance biodiversity are implemented(iv)Decision-making is equitable and based on ecosystem services(v)Knowledge of the marine realm is strengthened-'mapping the ocean of life'(vi)The interests of diverse user groups are balanced with a fair distribution of benefits.

Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems

Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.

Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems

Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.