Desynchronization and re-synchronization of reproduction by Astragalus scaphoides, a plant that flowers in alternate years

Poaceae pollen as the leading aeroallergen worldwide: A review

The Poaceae family comprises over 12 000 wind-pollinated species, which release large amounts of pollen into the atmosphere. Poaceae pollen is currently regarded as the leading airborne biological pollutant and the chief cause of pollen allergy worldwide. Sensitization rates vary by country, and those variations are reviewed here. Grass pollen allergens are grouped according to their protein structure and function. In Poaceae, although species belonging to different subfamilies are characterized by distinct allergen subsets, there is a considerable degree of cross-reactivity between many species. Cross-reactivity between grass pollen protein and fresh fruit pan-allergens is associated with the appearance of food allergies. The additional influence of urban pollution may prompt a more severe immunological response. The timing and the intensity of the pollen season are governed by species genetics, but plant phenology is also influenced by climate; as a result, climate changes may affect airborne pollen concentrations. This article reviews the findings of worldwide research which has highlighted the major impact of climate change on plant phenology and also on the prevalence and severity of allergic disease.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change

Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies.

Nonlinear effect of dispersal rate on spatial synchrony of predator-prey cycles

Spatially-separated populations often exhibit positively correlated fluctuations in abundance and other population variables, a phenomenon known as spatial synchrony. Generation and maintenance of synchrony requires forces that rapidly restore synchrony in the face of desynchronizing forces such as demographic and environmental stochasticity. One such force is dispersal, which couples local populations together, thereby synchronizing them. Theory predicts that average spatial synchrony can be a nonlinear function of dispersal rate, but the form of the dispersal rate-synchrony relationship has never been quantified for any system. Theory also predicts that in the presence of demographic and environmental stochasticity, realized levels of synchrony can exhibit high variability around the average, so that ecologically-identical metapopulations might exhibit very different levels of synchrony. We quantified the dispersal rate-synchrony relationship using a model system of protist predator-prey cycles in pairs of laboratory microcosms linked by different rates of dispersal. Paired predator-prey cycles initially were anti-synchronous, and were subject to demographic stochasticity and spatially-uncorrelated temperature fluctuations, challenging the ability of dispersal to rapidly synchronize them. Mean synchrony of prey cycles was a nonlinear, saturating function of dispersal rate. Even extremely low rates of dispersal (<0.4% per prey generation) were capable of rapidly bringing initially anti-synchronous cycles into synchrony. Consistent with theory, ecologically-identical replicates exhibited very different levels of prey synchrony, especially at low to intermediate dispersal rates. Our results suggest that even the very low rates of dispersal observed in many natural systems are sufficient to generate and maintain synchrony of cyclic population dynamics, at least when environments are not too spatially heterogeneous.