Coronavirus in Ireland: one behavioural scientist’s view

COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland: Epidemiology, public health restrictions and vaccination uptake

Background: The first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland was managed by a prolonged national lockdown. The second and third waves were managed by continued non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and deployment of a national vaccination programme. This paper aims to describe the epidemiological trends, Public Health restrictions and vaccination uptake during the first three waves of the pandemic.   Methods: Data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 1 March 2020 to 27 March 2021 were extracted from the national COVID-19 data hub, the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) and the National Contact Management Programme. Vaccine uptake and epidemiological data from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control were reported from four other EU states.  Results: Ireland experienced three distinct waves of COVID-19; first wave occurred March to August 2020, second August to November 2020 and third from November 2020 onwards. The third wave was attributable to emergence of the Alpha variant of concern (B.1.1.7 strain) and relaxation of public health restrictions in December 2020, when weekly mean number of close contacts per case peaked at 5.2. A similar epidemiological trajectory was observed across four other EU states.   Conclusions: Surges of COVID-19 continue to occur despite increasing vaccine coverage in the EU, due to the emergence of novel variants of concern and relaxation of Public Health restrictions. A “vaccine plus policy” is needed.

A worldwide assessment of changes in adherence to COVID-19 protective behaviours and hypothesized pandemic fatigue

As the COVID-19 pandemic lingers, the possibility of 'pandemic fatigue' has raised worldwide concerns. Here, we examine whether there was a gradual reduction in adherence to protective behaviours against COVID-19 from March through December 2020, as hypothesized in expectations of fatigue. We considered self-report behaviours from representative samples of the populations of 14 countries (N = 238,797), as well as mobility and policy data for 124 countries. Our results show that changes in adherence were empirically meaningful and geographically widespread. While a low-cost and habituating behaviour (mask wearing) exhibited a linear rise in adherence, high-cost and sensitizing behaviours (physical distancing) declined, but this decline decelerated over time, with small rebounds seen in later months. Reductions in adherence to physical distancing showed little difference across societal groups, but were less intense in countries with high interpersonal trust. Alternative underlying mechanisms and policy implications are discussed.