Two effective clinical prediction models to screen for obstructive sleep apnoea based on body mass index and other parameters

Development and validation of a genomic nomogram based on a ceRNA network for comprehensive analysis of obstructive sleep apnea

Objectives: Some ceRNA associated with lncRNA have been considered as possible diagnostic and therapeutic biomarkers for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We intend to identify the potential hub genes for the development of OSA, which will provide a foundation for the study of the molecular mechanism underlying OSA and for the diagnosis and treatment of OSA.

Methods: We collected plasma samples from OSA patients and healthy controls for the detection of ceRNA using a chip. Based on the differential expression of lncRNA, we identified the target genes of miRNA that bind to lncRNAs. We then constructed lncRNA-related ceRNA networks, performed functional enrichment analysis and protein-protein interaction analysis, and performed internal and external validation of the expression levels of stable hub genes. Then, we conducted LASSO regression analysis on the stable hub genes, selected relatively significant genes to construct a simple and easy-to-use nomogram, validated the nomogram, and constructed the core ceRNA sub-network of key genes.

Results: We successfully identified 282 DElncRNAs and 380 DEmRNAs through differential analysis, and we constructed an OSA-related ceRNA network consisting of 292 miRNA-lncRNAs and 41 miRNA-mRNAs. Through PPI and hub gene selection, we obtained 7 additional robust hub genes, CCND2, WT1, E2F2, IRF1, BAZ2A, LAMC1, and DAB2. Using LASSO regression analysis, we created a nomogram with four predictors (CCND2, WT1, E2F2, and IRF1), and its area under the curve (AUC) is 1. Finally, we constructed a core ceRNA sub-network composed of 74 miRNA-lncRNA and 7 miRNA-mRNA nodes.

Conclusion: Our study provides a new foundation for elucidating the molecular mechanism of lncRNA in OSA and for diagnosing and treating OSA.

Development and assessment of a risk prediction model for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea

Background

OSA is an independent risk factor for several systemic diseases. Compared with mild OSA, patients with moderate-to-severe OSA have more severe impairment in the function of all organs of the body. Due to the current limited medical condition, not every patient can be diagnosed and treated in time. To enable timely screening of patients with moderate-to-severe OSA, we selected easily accessible variables to establish a risk prediction model.

Method

We collected 492 patients who had polysomnography (PSG), and divided them into the disease-free mild OSA group (control group), and the moderate-to-severe OSA group according to the PSG results. Variables entering the model were identified by random forest plots, univariate analysis, multicollinearity test, and binary logistic regression method. Nomogram were created based on the binary logistic results, and the area under the ROC curve was used to evaluate the discriminative properties of the nomogram model. Bootstrap method was used to internally validate the nomogram model, and calibration curves were plotted after 1,000 replicate sampling of the original data, and the accuracy of the model was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, we performed decision curve analysis (DCA) of nomogram model, STOP-Bang questionnaire (SBQ), and NoSAS score to assess clinical utility.

Results

There are 6 variables entering the final prediction model, namely BMI, Hypertension, Morning dry mouth, Suffocating awake at night, Witnessed apnea, and ESS total score. The AUC of this prediction model was 0.976 (95% CI: 0.962–0.990). Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test χ² = 3.3222 (P = 0.1899 > 0.05), and the calibration curve was in general agreement with the ideal curve. The model has good consistency in predicting the actual occurrence of moderate-to-severe risk, and has good prediction accuracy. The DCA shows that the net benefit of the nomogram model is higher than that of SBQ and NoSAS, with has good clinical utility.

Conclusion

The prediction model obtained in this study has good predictive power for moderate-to-severe OSA and is superior to other prediction models and questionnaires. It can be applied to the community population for screening and to the clinic for prioritization of treatment.