Response to W. Kramer: The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities: comment (doi:10.1007/s11356-011-0644-8)

The secondary sex ratio in Italy over the past eighty years (1940 to 2019) and potential impact of radiological contamination after atmospheric nuclear testing and after Chernobyl: Temporal change-point analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

In Europe, the male to female ratio at birth (secondary sex ratio: SSR; sex odds: SO) is 1.04-1.06, is influenced by many factors and is declining in industrialized countries. This study was carried out to identify possible impacts of fallout by atomic bomb tests or by the Chernobyl event on SSR in Italy. Italy is a country without commercial nuclear power generation for the last four decades and thus nearly free of radiological confounders. Counts of annual male and female live births in Italy are provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and by the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). This study included 57.7 million live births (1940-2019) with overall SSR 1.05829. The Italian SSR trend was modelled with linear and non-linear logistic regression. Trend changes, i.e., periods with level shifts were estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two distinct idealized level shifts were identified superimposed on a uniform secular downward trend. The first one is seen towards the end of the 1960s with a jump sex odds ratio (SOR) 1.00681, p < 0.0001. The second one occurred in 1987 with SOR 1.00474, p < 0.0001. In each of the 3 periods separated by the two jumps, SSR uniformly decreased with trend SOR per 100 years of 0.98549, p < 0.0001. In conclusion, the secular trend in the Italian SSR showed two marked level shifts, at the end of the 1960s and from 1987 onward. These follow the release of radioactivity by atmospheric atomic bomb tests during the 1960s and by Chernobyl in 1986 and corroborate the hypothesis that ionizing radiation increases SSR.

Locating Purity within Corruption Rumors: Narratives of HPV Vaccination Refusal in a Peri-urban Community of Southern Romania

This article locates the symbolic construction of "corrupted purity"-as a key assertion in Romanian parents' HPV vaccination refusal narratives-within a multiplicity of entangled rumors concerning reproduction and the state. Romania's unsuccessful HPV vaccination campaign is not unique. However, the shifting discourses around purity and corruption-through which some parents conveyed anxieties about their daughters being targeted for the vaccine-place a particular twist on the Romanian case of resisting the HPV vaccination. Parental discourses took the form of clusters of rumors about state medicine's failure to provide adequate reproductive health care, additive-laden foods, and exposure to radioactive contamination. In these rumors, corruption becomes literally embodied, through ingestion, consumption, contact, or inoculation. Parental discourses about what is being injected into their daughters' pristine bodies express their uncertainty around navigating the unsettled post-socialist medical landscape.

Human sex ratio at birth and residential proximity to nuclear facilities in France

The possible detrimental genetic impact on humans living in the vicinity of nuclear facilities has been previously studied. We found evidence for an increase in the human secondary sex ratio (sex odds) within distances of up to 35km from nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland. Here, we extend our pilot investigations using new comprehensive data from France. The French data (1968-2011) account for 36,565 municipalities with 16,968,701 male and 16,145,925 female births. The overall sex ratio was 1.0510. Using linear and nonlinear logistic regression models with dummy variables coding for appropriately grouped municipalities, operation time periods, and corresponding spatiotemporal interactions, we consider the association between annual municipality-level birth sex ratios and minimum distances of municipalities from nuclear facilities. Within 35km from 28 nuclear sites in France, the sex ratio is increased relative to the rest of France with a sex odds ratio (SOR) of 1.0028, (95% CI: 1.0007, 1.0049). The detected association between municipalities' minimum distances from nuclear facilities and the sex ratio in France corroborates our findings for Germany and Switzerland.

Increased sex ratio in Russia and Cuba after Chernobyl: a radiological hypothesis

BACKGROUND

The ratio of male to female offspring at birth may be a simple and non-invasive way to monitor the reproductive health of a population. Except in societies where selective abortion skews the sex ratio, approximately 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. Generally, the human sex ratio at birth is remarkably constant in large populations. After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in April 1986, a long lasting significant elevation in the sex ratio has been found in Russia, i.e. more boys or fewer girls compared to expectation were born. Recently, also for Cuba an escalated sex ratio from 1987 onward has been documented and discussed in the scientific literature.

PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS

By the end of the eighties of the last century in Cuba as much as about 60% of the food imports were provided by the former Soviet Union. Due to its difficult economic situation, Cuba had neither the necessary insight nor the political strength to circumvent the detrimental genetic effects of imported radioactively contaminated foodstuffs after Chernobyl. We propose that the long term stable sex ratio increase in Cuba is essentially due to ionizing radiation.

TESTING OF THE HYPOTHESIS

A synoptic trend analysis of Russian and Cuban annual sex ratios discloses upward jumps in 1987. The estimated jump height from 1986 to 1987 in Russia measures 0.51% with a 95% confidence interval (0.28, 0.75), p value < 0.0001. In Cuba the estimated jump height measures 2.99% (2.39, 3.60), p value < 0.0001. The hypothesis may be tested by reconstruction of imports from the world markets to Cuba and by radiological analyses of remains in Cuba for Cs-137 and Sr-90.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS

If the evidence for the hypothesis is strengthened, there is potential to learn about genetic radiation risks and to prevent similar effects in present and future exposure situations.