Evaluating and validating abundance monitoring methods in the absence of populations of known size: review and application to a passive tracking index

Estimating minke whale relative abundance in the North Atlantic using passive acoustic sensors

Estimates of abundance and their changes through time are key elements of marine mammal conservation and management. Absolute marine mammal abundance in a region of the open ocean is often difficult to attain. However, methods of estimating their abundance based on passive acoustic recordings are becoming increasingly employed. This study shows that passive acoustic monitoring of North Atlantic minke whales with a single hydrophone provides sufficient information to estimate relative population abundance. An automated detector was developed for minke whale pulse trains and an approach for converting its output into a relative abundance index is proposed by accounting for detectability as well as false positives and negatives. To demonstrate this technique, a 2 y dataset from the seven sites of the Atlantic Deepwater Ecosystem Observatory Network project on the U.S. east coast was analyzed. Resulting relative abundance indices confirm pulse train-calling minke whale presence in the deep waters of the outer continental shelf. The minkes are present December through April annually with the highest abundance near the site offshore of Savannah, Georgia.

Terrestrial mesopredators did not increase after top-predator removal in a large-scale experimental test of mesopredator release theory

Removal or loss of top-predators has been predicted to cause cascading negative effects for ecosystems, including mesopredator release. However, reliable evidence for these processes in terrestrial systems has been mixed and equivocal due, in large part, to the systemic and continued use of low-inference study designs to investigate this issue. Even previous large-scale manipulative experiments of strong inferential value have been limited by experimental design features (i.e. failure to prevent migration between treatments) that constrain possible inferences about the presence or absence of mesopredator release effects. Here, we build on these previous strong-inference experiments and report the outcomes of additional large-scale manipulative experiments to eradicate Australian dingoes from two fenced areas where dingo migration was restricted and where theory would predict an increase in extant European red foxes, feral cats and goannas. We demonstrate the removal and suppression of dingoes to undetectable levels over 4–5 years with no corresponding increases in mesopredator relative abundances, which remained low and stable throughout the experiment at both sites. We further demonstrate widespread absence of negative relationships between predators, indicating that the mechanism underpinning predicted mesopredator releases was not present. Our results are consistent with all previous large-scale manipulative experiments and long-term mensurative studies which collectively demonstrate that (1) dingoes do not suppress red foxes, feral cats or goannas at the population level, (2) repeated, temporary suppression of dingoes in open systems does not create mesopredator release effects, and (3) removal and sustained suppression of dingoes to undetectable levels in closed systems does not create mesopredator release effects either. Our experiments add to similar reports from North America, Asia, Europe and southern Africa which indicate that not only is there a widespread absence of reliable evidence for these processes, but there is also a large and continually growing body of experimental evidence of absence for these processes in many terrestrial systems. We conclude that although sympatric predators may interact negatively with each other on smaller spatiotemporal scales, that these negative interactions do not always scale-up to the population level, nor are they always strong enough to create mesopredator suppression or release effects.

A framework of integrated research for managing introduced predators in the Pilbara bioregion, Western Australia

The effective control of wild dogs, feral cats and foxes is of primary interest to land managers, both for biodiversity conservation and for the protection of livestock. Control programs primarily target single species within the context of biodiversity conservation or livestock practices, but their effectiveness in depressing predator densities is unclear because monitoring is limited or not conducted. Here, we review and discuss the outcomes of a workshop to identify research priorities for managing predation on native fauna by introduced predators in the Pilbara bioregion in Western Australia. We suggest that the control of introduced predators will be most effective if it is implemented at a landscape-scale comprising integrated predator management that considers interspecific (predator) interactions combined with standardised monitoring to measure the effectiveness and benefits of control. Four research themes were identified: (1) collation and collection of baseline data, (2) effective monitoring of introduced predators, (3) understanding functional (ecological) roles of introduced predators within the different ecosystem contexts, and (4) identifying novel complementary approaches to protect threatened species. These themes collectively include research areas that invest in foundational, ecological and alternative biological parameters in research to close knowledge gaps related to the functional roles of introduced predators in the landscape. Addressing these research themes will assist land managers to achieve outcomes that address the needs of both biodiversity conservation and pastoral production. This framework is timely given the ongoing investment in offset funding being mobilised in the region.

Evaluating methods to detect and monitor populations of a large invasive lizard: the Argentine giant tegu

The Argentine giant tegu, a large lizard native to South America, was first discovered as established in the USA in scrub habitats of west-central Florida in 2006. Invasive populations potentially could occupy an extensive range of habitats and in much of the southern United States and Mexico and threaten many native species. The Argentine giant tegu was recently deemed as having a "highest impact concern" among the invasive reptile species most threatening to Florida ecology. Among the most rewarding research directions identified for this species was "having a reliable and practical method to detect/monitor" them. We address this need by evaluating five methods for monitoring Argentine giant tegus on how well each method detected the species and whether the observations were sufficient to quantitatively assess population abundance using a widely applicable framework for indexing animal populations. Passive tracking plots were the most efficient and effective means for detecting tegus and calculating abundance indices but were best suited for late winter to spring before summer rains compacted tracking substrates. Gopher tortoise burrows are often used by tegus and camera traps on their entrances proved able to obtain data suitable for indexing populations but required more labor and expense than tracking plots. Trapping either at gopher tortoise burrows or along drift fences was ineffective at capturing tegus. Similarly, visual encounter transects were not effective for observing tegus.

Dingo baiting did not reduce fetal/calf loss in beef cattle in northern South Australia

Beef cattle production is the major agricultural pursuit in the arid rangelands of Australia. Dingo predation is often considered a significant threat to production in rangeland beef herds, but there is a need for improved understanding of the effects of dingo baiting on reproductive wastage. We experimentally compared fetal/calf loss on baited and non-baited treatment areas within three northern South Australian beef herds over a 2–4-year period. At re-musters, lactation was used to determine the outcomes of known pregnancies. Potential explanatory factors for fetal/calf loss (dingo baiting, dingo activity, summer heat, cow age, seasonal conditions, activity of dingo prey and selected livestock diseases) were investigated. From 3145 tracked pregnancies, fetal/calf loss averaged 18.6%, with no overall significant effect of baiting. Fetal/calf loss averaged 27.3% for primiparous (first pregnancy) heifers and 16.8% for multiparous (2nd or later calf) cows. On average, dingo-activity indices were 59.3% lower in baited treatments than in controls, although background site differences in habitat, weather and previous dingo control could have contributed to these lower indices. The overall scale and timing of fetal/calf loss was not correlated with dingo activity, time of year, a satellite-derived measure of landscape greenness (normalised difference vegetation index), or activity of alternative dingo prey. Limited blood testing suggested that successful pregnancy outcomes, especially in primiparous heifers, may have been reduced by the livestock diseases pestivirus and leptospirosis. The percentage occurrence of cattle hair in dingo scats was higher when seasonal conditions were poorer and alternative prey less common, but lack of association between fetal/calf loss and normalised difference vegetation index suggests that carrion feeding, rather than calf predation, was the more likely cause. Nevertheless, during the fair to excellent prevailing seasons, there were direct observations of calf predation. It is likely that ground baiting, as applied, was ineffective in protecting calves, or that site effects, variable cow age and disease confounded our results.

Environmental effects are stronger than human effects on mammalian predator-prey relationships in arid Australian ecosystems

Climate (drought, rainfall), geology (habitat availability), land use change (provision of artificial waterpoints, introduction of livestock), invasive species (competition, predation), and direct human intervention (lethal control of top-predators) have each been identified as processes driving the sustainability of threatened fauna populations. We used a systematic combination of empirical observational studies and experimental manipulations to comprehensively evaluate the effects of these process on a model endangered rodent, dusky hopping-mice (Notomys fuscus). We established a large manipulative experiment in arid Australia, and collected information from relative abundance indices, camera traps, GPS-collared dingoes (Canis familiaris) and dingo scats, along with a range of related environmental data (e.g. rainfall, habitat type, distance to artificial water etc.). We show that hopping-mice populations were most strongly influenced by geological and climatic effects of resource availability and rainfall, and not land use, invasive species, or human effects of livestock grazing, waterpoint provision, or the lethal control of dingoes. Hopping-mice distribution declined along a geological gradient of more to less available hopping-mice habitat (sand dunes), and their abundance was driven by rainfall. Hopping-mice populations fluctuated independent of livestock presence, artificial waterpoint availability or repeated lethal dingo control. Hopping-mice populations appear to be limited first by habitat availability, then by food availability, then by predation. Contemporary top-predator control practices (for protection of livestock) have little influence on hopping-mice behaviour or population dynamics. Given our inability to constrain the effects of predation across broad scales, management actions focusing on increasing available food and habitat (e.g. alteration of fire and herbivory) may have a greater chance of improving the conservation status of hopping-mice and other small mammals in arid areas. Our study also reaffirms the importance of using systematic and experimental approaches to detect true drivers of population distribution and dynamics where multiple potential drivers operate simultaneously.

A Comparative Assessment of Track Plates to Quantify Fine Scale Variations in the Relative Abundance of Norway Rats in Urban Slums

Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) living in urban environments are a critical public health and economic problem, particularly in urban slums where residents are at a higher risk for rat borne diseases, yet convenient methods to quantitatively assess population sizes are lacking. We evaluated track plates as a method to determine rat distribution and relative abundance in a complex urban slum environment by correlating the presence and intensity of rat-specific marks on track plates with findings from rat infestation surveys and trapping of rats to population exhaustion. To integrate the zero-inflated track plate data we developed a two-component mixture model with one binary and one censored continuous component. Track plate mark-intensity was highly correlated with signs of rodent infestation (all coefficients between 0.61 and 0.79 and all p-values < 0.05). Moreover, the mean level of pre-trapping rat-mark intensity on plates was significantly associated with the number of rats captured subsequently (Odds ratio1.38; 95% CI 1.19-1.61) and declined significantly following trapping (Odds ratio 0.86; 95% CI 0.78-0.95). Track plates provided robust proxy measurements of rat abundance and distribution and detected rat presence even when populations appeared 'trapped out'. Tracking plates are relatively easy and inexpensive methods that can be used to intensively sample settings such as urban slums, where traditional trapping or mark-recapture studies are impossible to implement, and therefore the results can inform and assess the impact of targeted urban rodent control campaigns.