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Wang H, Huang S, Wang Z, Zhen H, Li Z, Fan W, Lu M, Han X, Du L, Zhao M, Yan Y, Zhang X, Zhen Q, Shui T. Association between meteorological factors and varicella incidence: a multicity study in Yunnan Province, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:117817-117828. [PMID: 37874521 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-30457-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/25/2023]
Abstract
This multicenter study aimed to investigate the relationship between varicella incidence and meteorological factors including mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, diurnal temperature difference, wind speed, and rainfall, as previous studies have produced varying results. Our study also sought to identify potential sources of heterogeneity. Data on reported daily varicella numbers and meteorological factors were collected for 14 cities in Yunnan Province from 2017 to 2021. A distribution-lagged nonlinear model was constructed to explore the relationship between meteorological conditions and varicella incidence in each included city. We then used multiple meta-regression to explore sources of heterogeneity using demographic economics indicators, air pollutants, and geographic location as potential modifiers. The cumulative hazard effect plot showed an inverted S-shape for the relationship between temperature and varicella, with the smallest RR (relative risk) (0.533, 95% CI: 0.401-0.708) at temperatures up to 27.2 °C. The maximum RR (1.171, 95% CI: 1.001-1.371) was obtained when the relative humidity was equal to 98.5%. The RR (1.164, 95% CI: 1.002-1.352) was greatest at a diurnal temperature range of 2 °C (1.164, 95% CI: 1.002-1.352) and least (0.913, 95% CI: 0.834-0.999) at a diurnal temperature range of 16.1 °C. The maximum RR (1.214, 95% CI: 1.089-1.354) was obtained at 0 h of sunshine, and the minimum RR (0.808, 95% CI: 0.675-0.968) was obtained at 12.4 h of sunshine. The RR (0.792, 95% CI: 0.633-0.992) was minimum at a wind velocity of 4.8 m/s. Residual heterogeneity ranged from 1 to 42.7%, with PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm), GDP (gross domestic product), and population density explaining some of this heterogeneity. The temperature has a dual effect on varicella incidence. Varicella cases are negatively correlated with diurnal temperature range, sunshine duration, and wind speed, and positively correlated with relative humidity. GDP and PM10 may have a significant role in altering the association between temperature and varicella, while PM10 and population density may alter the association between wind velocity and varicella.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Severe Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory for Zoonoses Research of the Ministry of Education, Changchun, China
| | - Shanjun Huang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Zhaohan Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Hua Zhen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Zhuo Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Wenqi Fan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Menghan Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Xin Han
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Lanping Du
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Meifang Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Yuke Yan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Xinyao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Care Management, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Qing Zhen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China.
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Severe Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory for Zoonoses Research of the Ministry of Education, Changchun, China.
| | - Tiejun Shui
- Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, Yunnan, China
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Shen W, Li X, Fang Q, Li G, Xiao W, Wu Y, Liu J, Hu W, Lu H, Huang F. The impact of ambient air pollutants on childhood respiratory system disease and the resulting disease burden: a time-series study. Int Arch Occup Environ Health 2023; 96:1087-1100. [PMID: 37338586 DOI: 10.1007/s00420-023-01991-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2023] [Accepted: 06/13/2023] [Indexed: 06/21/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE The effects of air pollution on human health have long been a hot topic of research. For respiratory diseases, a large number of studies have proved that air pollution is one of the main causes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the risk of hospitalization of children with respiratory system diseases (CRSD) caused by six pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO, and O3) in Hefei City, and further calculate the disease burden. METHOD In the first stage, the generalized additive models were combined with the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the impact of air pollution on the inpatients for CRSD in Hefei. In the second stage, this study used the cost-of-illness approach to calculate the attributable number of hospitalizations and the extra disease burden. RESULT Overall, all the six kinds of pollutants had the strongest effects on CRSD inpatients within lag10 days. SO2 and CO caused the highest and lowest harm, respectively, and the RR values were SO2 (lag0-5): 1.1 20 (1.053, 1.191), and CO (lag0-6): 1.002 (1.001, 1.003). During the study period (January 1, 2014 to December 30, 2020), the 7-year cumulative burden of disease was 36.19 million CNY under the WHO air pollution standards. CONCLUSION In general, we found that six air pollutants were risk factors for CRSD in Hefei City, and create a huge burden of disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenbin Shen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Xue Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Qingfeng Fang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Anhui Provincial Children's Hospital, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Guoao Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Wei Xiao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Yueyang Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Jianjun Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Wenlei Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Huanhuan Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Fen Huang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
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Wen L, Yang D, Li Y, Lu D, Su H, Tang M, Song X. Spatial Effect of Ecological Environmental Factors on Mumps in China during 2014-2018. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:15429. [PMID: 36497504 PMCID: PMC9735526 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192315429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2022] [Revised: 11/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
(1) Background: although mumps vaccines have been introduced in most countries around the world in recent years, mumps outbreaks have occurred in countries with high vaccination rates. At present, China remains the focus of the global fight against mumps. This study aims to observe the epidemic characteristics and spatial clustering patterns of mumps and to investigate the potential factors affecting the disease incidence, which could provide novel ideas and avenues for future research as well as the prevention and control of mumps. (2) Methods: we used ArcGIS software to visualize the spatial distribution and variation of mumps. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was applied to detect the spatial dependence and clustering patterns of the incidence. We applied the Spatial Durbin Panel Model (SDPM) to explore the spatial associations of ecological environmental factors with mumps. (3) Results: overall, the incidence rate showed a significant upward trend from 2014 to 2018, with the highest number of cases in the 10-15-year age group and from May to June. Geographically, the high incidence clusters were concentrated in southern regions, including Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Guangxi. This study also found that mumps has a positive spatial spillover effect in the study area. The average temperature and GDP of the local and adjacent areas have a significant impact on mumps. The increase in PM2.5 contributes to the rise in the incidence of mumps in this region. (4) Conclusions: these results can offer some novel ideas for policymakers and researchers. Local meteorological conditions and economic levels can extend to surrounding areas to affect the occurrence of mumps, so regional cooperation becomes particularly important. We recommend investment of public health funds in areas with a high incidence of mumps and developing economies to reduce and control the incidence of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Wen
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Danling Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Yanning Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Dongjia Lu
- Guangxi Key Laboratory of AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Guangxi Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Disease, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Haixia Su
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Mengying Tang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
| | - Xiaokun Song
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
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A Multi-Age-Group Interrupted Time-Series Study for Evaluating the Effectiveness of National Expanded Program on Immunization on Mumps. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10101587. [PMID: 36298452 PMCID: PMC9610758 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10101587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2022] [Revised: 09/18/2022] [Accepted: 09/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The national Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in China has covered vaccines for measles, mumps, and rubella, among children aged 18–24 months since September 2008. However, no previous studies have quantified the effectiveness of the EPI on mumps incidence. There are methodological challenges in assessing the effect of an intervention that targets a subpopulation but finally influences the whole population. In this study, monthly data on mumps incidence were collected in Guangzhou, China, during 2005–2019. We proposed a multi-age-group interrupted time-series design, setting the starting time of exerting effect separately for 14 different age groups. A mixed-effects quasi-Poisson regression was applied to analyze the effectiveness of the EPI on mumps incidence, after controlling for long-term and seasonal trends, and meteorological factors. The model also accounted for the first-order autocorrelation within each age group. Between-age-group correlations were expressed using the contact matrix of age groups. We found that 70,682 mumps cases were reported during 2005–2019, with an annual incidence rate of 37.91 cases per 100,000 population. The effect of EPI strengthened over time, resulting in a decrease in the incidence of mumps by 16.6% (EPI-associated excess risk% = −16.6%, 95% CI: −27.0% to −4.7%) in September 2009 to 40.1% (EPI-associated excess risk% = −40.1%, 95% CI: −46.1% to −33.3%) in September 2019. A reverse U-shape pattern was found in age-specific effect estimates, with the largest reduction of 129 cases per 100,000 population (95% CI: 14 to 1173) in those aged 4–5 years. The EPI is effective in reducing the mumps incidence in Guangzhou. The proposed modeling strategy can be applied for simultaneous assessment of the effectiveness of public health interventions across different age groups, with adequate adjustment for within- and between-group correlations.
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Wang T, Wang J, Rao J, Han Y, Luo Z, Jia L, Chen L, Wang C, Zhang Y, Zhang J. Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps. Sci Rep 2022; 12:6440. [PMID: 35440700 PMCID: PMC9017417 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-10138-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2021] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Many studies have shown that the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and mumps has been highlighted. However, these studies showed inconsistent results. Therefore, the goal of our study is to conduct a meta-analysis to clarify this relationship and to quantify the size of these effects as well as the potential factors. Systematic literature researches on PubMed, Embase.com, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane library, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database (CBM) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were performed up to February 7, 2022 for articles analyzing the relationships between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. Eligibility assessment and data extraction were conducted independently by two researchers, and meta-analysis was performed to synthesize these data. We also assessed sources of heterogeneity by study region, regional climate, study population. Finally, a total of 14 studies were screened out from 1154 records and identified to estimate the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. It was found that per 1 °C increase and decrease in the ambient temperature were significantly associated with increased incidence of mumps with RR of 1.0191 (95% CI: 1.0129–1.0252, I2 = 92.0%, Egger’s test P = 0.001, N = 13) for per 1 °C increase and 1.0244 (95% CI: 1.0130–1.0359, I2 = 86.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.077, N = 9) for per 1 °C decrease. As to relative humidity, only high effect of relative humidity was slightly significant (for per 1 unit increase with RR of 1.0088 (95% CI: 1.0027–1.0150), I2 = 72.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.159, N = 9). Subgroup analysis showed that regional climate with temperate areas may have a higher risk of incidence of mumps than areas with subtropical climate in cold effect of ambient temperature and low effect of relative humidity. In addition, meta-regression analysis showed that regional climate may affect the association between incidence of mumps and cold effect of ambient temperature. Our results suggest ambient temperature could affect the incidence of mumps significantly, of which both hot and cold effect of ambient temperature may increase the incidence of mumps. Further studies are still needed to clarify the relationship between the incidence of mumps and ambient temperature outside of east Asia, and many other meteorological factors. These results of ambient temperature are important for establishing preventive measures on mumps, especially in temperate areas. The policy-makers should pay more attention to ambient temperature changes and take protective measures in advance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taiwu Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Junjun Wang
- Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, 210002, China.,Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Jixian Rao
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Yifang Han
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Zhenghan Luo
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Lingru Jia
- Wuxi Center of Joint Logistic Support Force, Wuxi, 214000, China
| | - Leru Chen
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Chunhui Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Yao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing, 400038, China.
| | - Jinhai Zhang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China.
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Huang JF, Zhao ZY, Lu WK, Rui J, Deng B, Liu WK, Yang TL, Li ZY, Li PH, Liu C, Luo L, Zhao B, Wang YF, Li Q, Wang MZ, Chen TM. Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study. Infect Dis Model 2022; 7:127-137. [PMID: 35573860 PMCID: PMC9062423 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.04.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2022] [Revised: 04/18/2022] [Accepted: 04/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables. Method A seasonal Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt). Results The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of Rt = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). Rt was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with Rt. Conclusion A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.
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Li G, Wu H, Zhong Q, He J, Yang W, Zhu J, Zhao H, Zhang H, Zhu Z, Huang F. Six air pollutants and cause-specific mortality: a multi-area study in nine counties or districts of Anhui Province, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:468-482. [PMID: 34331645 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15730-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2021] [Accepted: 07/26/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Air pollution and its negative effects on health of people have been a global concern. Many studies had found a strong association between air pollutants and risk of death, but few had focused on the effects of six pollutants and rural areas. Our study aimed to investigate the effects of six air pollutants (CO, NO2, O3, PM2.5, PM10, and SO2) on non-accidental and respiratory deaths in rural areas of Anhui Province by adjusting for confounding factors, and to further clarify which populations were susceptible to death associated with air pollution. In the first phase of the analysis, the generalized additive models were combined with the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the individual effects of air pollution on death in each area. In the second stage, random-effects models were used to aggregate the associations between air pollutants and mortality risk in nine areas. Overall, six pollutants had the strongest effects on the risk of death on the lag 07 days. The associations between PM2.5 and NO2 and daily non-accidental deaths were strongest, with maximum RR (lag 07): 1.63 (1.37-1.88) and 1.67 (1.37-1.96). The maximum pooled effects of association between six air pollutants and RD were PM2.5, with RR (lag 07): 1.89 (1.45-2.34). PM2.5 and PM10 had significant differences between the elderly and the non-elderly with respectively, RRR: 1.22 (1.04-1.41) and 1.26 (1.11-1.42). In general, we found that six air pollutants were the important risk factors for deaths (deaths from respiratory disease and non-accidental) in rural areas of Anhui Province. PM10 and PM2.5 had a considerable impact on the elderly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guoao Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Huabing Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Qi Zhong
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Jialiu He
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Wanjun Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Jinliang Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Huanhuan Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Hanshuang Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Zhenyu Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Fen Huang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
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Zhang M, Zhu Y. Association between particulate matter pollution and the incidence of mumps in 31 provinces from China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:51210-51216. [PMID: 33977431 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14287-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2021] [Accepted: 05/03/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies have found that particulate matter (PM) pollution is a risk factor for respiratory disease by affecting body's immunity and carrying microorganisms. This study aimed to explore the association between PM and the incidence of mumps in 31 provinces from China. Monthly mumps cases, air pollution concentration, and meteorological factors in each province were obtained between January 2014 to December 2017. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to investigate the associations of PM2.5 and PM10 with monthly mumps cases. We also tested the statistical significance of the differences between effect estimates in the warm season (April to September) and cold season (October to March) to explore potential effect modification. We found that a 10-μg/m3 increase (lag0) in PM2.5, and PM10 was associated with a 2.34% (95% CI: 1.32 to 3.36) and 1.90% (95% CI: 1.19 to 2.62) increase in the monthly counts of mumps cases, respectively. We also observed significant positive associations of PM2.5 and PM10 with mumps cases at lag0-1. These results were robust in our sensitivity analyses. No significant differences were found between the season-specific effects. Our results indicate that there is a positive relationship between PM and the incidence of mumps, which provides important implications for the prevention and control of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengru Zhang
- School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
| | - Yongjian Zhu
- School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China.
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Zhu Y, Zhang D, Hu Y, Li C, Jia Y, She K, Liu T, Xu Q, Zhang Y, Li X. Exploring the Relationship between Mumps and Meteorological Factors in Shandong Province, China Based on a Two-Stage Model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph181910359. [PMID: 34639658 PMCID: PMC8508524 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph181910359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2021] [Revised: 09/27/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Background: Small-scale studies have identified temperature and other meteorological factors as risk factors for human health. However, only a few have quantified the specific impact of meteorological factors on mumps. A quantitative examination of the exposure–response relationship between meteorological factors and mumps is needed to provide new insights for multi-city analysis. Methods: The daily recorded number of mumps cases and meteorological data in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2009 to 2017 were collected. A two-stage model was built to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps. Results: A total of 104,685 cases of mumps were recorded from 2009 to 2017. After controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, the effect of low temperature on mumps was significant at the provincial level, with a cumulative RR of 1.035 (95%CI: 1.002–1.069) with a 1-day lagged effect. The proportion of primary and middle school students was determined as an effect modifier, which had a significant impact on mumps (Stat = 8.374, p = 0.039). There was heterogeneity in the combined effect of temperature on mumps (Q = 95.447, p = 0.000), and its size was I2 = 49.7%. Conclusions: We have identified a non-linear relationship between mumps and temperature in Shandong Province. In particular, low temperatures could bring more cases of mumps, with certain lagged effects. More public health measures should be taken to reduce the risks when temperatures are low, especially for cities with a high proportion of primary and secondary school students.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuchen Zhu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Dandan Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
- Heze Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Heze 274003, China
| | - Yuchen Hu
- MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, 90 High Holborn, London WC1V 6LJ, UK;
| | - Chunyu Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Yan Jia
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Kaili She
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Tingxuan Liu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Qing Xu
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250012, China;
| | - Ying Zhang
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia;
| | - Xiujun Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +86-531-8838-2140
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Lin CY, Su SB, Peng CJ, Chen KT. The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters: An observational study. Medicine (Baltimore) 2021; 100:e27267. [PMID: 34664880 PMCID: PMC8447993 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000027267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Accepted: 08/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Mumps is an acute and common childhood disease caused by paramyxovirus. It has been reported that the occurrence of mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological variables in the incidence of mumps remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps infection. Poisson regression analysis was used to study the relationship between weather variability and the incidence of mumps in Taiwan. Between 2012 and 2018, 5459 cases of mumps cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan (Taiwan CDC). The occurrence of mumps virus infections revealed significant seasonality in the spring and summer seasons in Taiwan. The incidence of mumps virus infections began to increase at temperatures of 15°C and started to decline if the temperature was higher than 29°C (r2 = 0.387, P = .008). Similarly, the number of mumps cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 65% to 69% (r2 = 0.838, P < .029). The number of mumps cases was positively associated with temperature and relative humidity during the period preceding the infection. This study showed that the occurrence of mumps is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as early warning signals and indicate the need to strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng-Yao Lin
- Division of Hematology-Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Tainan, Taiwan
- Department of Senior Welfare and Services, Southern Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Tainan, Taiwan
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Shih-Bin Su
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Cheau-Jane Peng
- Department of Senior Welfare and Services, Southern Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Kow-Tong Chen
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Tainan Municipal Hospital, Tainan, Taiwan
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
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