Assessing the adverse effects of flooding for the livelihood of the poor and the level of external response: a case study of Hazara Division, Pakistan

Adaptable leadership for arid/semi-arid wetlands conservation under climate change: Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach

Adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts of climate change on wetlands have enforced the international community and many nations to develop adaptive policies for wetland management, which require effective leadership to influence relevant stakeholders. This study identifies and prioritizes leadership functions and theories for climate change adaptation (CCA) in wetlands ecosystems, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. A mixed qualitative-quantitative research methodology was applied through focus groups and a survey with a sample of national, sub-national, and local experts on wetlands management and climate change in Iran. The Analytic Hierarchy Processing (AHP) technique identified the political-administrative (weight = 0.245), adaptive (W = 0.244), and enabling (W = 0.237) functions for CCA, respectively, as three prioritized leadership functions, followed by the dissemination function (W = 0.102), which emphasizes the necessity of applying and enhancing leaders' social capacities, knowledge, communication skills, and personal networks to facilitate social learning and actions regarding CCA in local communities and among relevant organizations. It is necessary to overcome structural and functional barriers for leaders and their followers to information access and involvement in participatory decision-making platforms. Moreover, network and communication leadership theories (W = 0.368) and sustainable leadership perspectives (W = 0.362), respectively, have the highest priority among leadership theories and are crucial for establishing participatory decision-making among relevant stakeholders and applying adaptive strategies for wetlands governance under climate change conditions. The reconceptualization of leadership as a complex adaptive notion draws attention to the social complexities and emerging characteristics of leadership in contemporary societies and organizations. The understanding of leaders' and followers' networks and identifying the core role of leaders provides a foundation for developing leadership functions and theories beyond hierarchical, individualistic, and one-way concepts of leadership.

Planning for Sustainable Green Urbanism: An Empirical Bottom-Up (Community-Led) Perspective on Green Infrastructure (GI) Indicators in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan

Rising vulnerability of the urban green infrastructure (UGI) is grabbing global attention, for which inclusive urban landscape and greening policies (ULGP) and frameworks are crucial to support green growth. As such, this research intends to explore the local community's perspective to assemble sustainable UGI indicators for vital taxonomy of the urban green space (UGS) elements, aiming to develop a multi-functional and sustainable UGI-indicator-based framework that is eco-friendly and supports green-resilient cities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, Pakistan. An in-depth household survey was executed in three KP districts: Charsadda, Peshawar, and Mardan, placing self-administered 192 questionnaires while covering themes around climate change adaptation, urban resilience, and UGI. Relative importance index (RII) and the interquartile range (IQR) methods were set up for data analysis that revealed excellent reliability (α > 0.88) and internal consistency. The results confirmed community-based UGI indicators with a focus on promoting green-energy-saving strategies as e-imp (level 9, RII = 0.915), while other (ten) UGI indicators as important (RII = 0.811-0.894) and (eleven) as moderately important (RII = 0.738-0.792). These UGI indicators were found to be enhanced by UGS elements (RII ≥ 0.70). These findings provide a foundation for urban policy change and the development of a sustainable UGI framework to build an eco-regional paradigm for greener growth.

Frameworks for Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) Indicators: Expert and Community Outlook toward Green Climate-Resilient Cities in Pakistan

Climate-induced pressures spur on the need for urban green infrastructure (UGI) planning. This approach offers a possible way to improve ecosystem functionality and human well-being in adversely affected urban regions, wherein UGI is perceived as a green and nature-based climate change mitigation/adaptation strategy. In Pakistan, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province lacks such urban landscape and greening policies (ULGP) or legislative frameworks for transitioning to green action plans (GAP), to alleviate the risk of multi-climatic hazards. Thus, this study aims to investigate a sustainable UGI-indicator-based framework model, based on the due inclusion of the concerned stakeholders. The relative importance index (RII) and inter-quartile range (IQR) techniques are employed for field data analysis. The findings proclaim excellent reliability (α > 0.7) and internal consistency, wherein sustainable UGI indicators are grouped based on their importance. The results portray the ecological and economic sustainability dimensions as being important (RII = 0.835 and RII = 0.807, respectively), socio-cultural dimensions as being moderately important (RII = 0.795), and a set of UGS elements (RII ≥ 0.77) as vital for bolstering individual UGI indicators. The main UGS elements emerging in each category can be grouped as follows: ecological category—“reducing rainwater runoff” (RII = 0.94); socio-cultural category—“enhancement of mental and physical health” (RII = 0.90); and eco category—“minimizing the risk of flood disasters” (RII = 0.96). The simulation results demonstrate the need for an inclusive perspective when building the urban green space (UGS) infrastructure (and standards) that will be most suitable for ensuring climate-resilient urban regions. This study contributes to putting the scientific research knowledge of the natural green-landscape-based (NBLB) approach into practice. The study calls for the establishment of an effective, pragmatic relationship between the urban landscape and greening policies, alongside a constructive relationship with the native inhabitants to ensure eco-friendly and resilient settlements.

Flood in mountainous communities of Pakistan: how does it shape the livelihood and economic status and government support?

The agriculture sector remains under attack by the consistent flooding events in Pakistan as flooding water is sweeping away crops and livelihood opportunities, thus dragging the already vulnerable communities into poverty. This research has studied the adverse impacts of consistent floods (2010 to 2018) on the rural mountainous agriculture, agrarian occupation, economic system, and rise in poverty in ten districts of Hazara and Malakand divisions, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. In total, 1000 self-administered questionnaires were deployed at the household level through judgment sampling studying the flood-affected households. Primary data for the impacts of floods on the livelihood, economic status, and poverty and correlation among them was estimated through three parallel logistic regression equations based on indexes for three separate models for the study variable to describe the flood-induced vulnerability at HH level. The results of the interrelationship of the selected variables declared Malakand division more prone to loss of livelihood, degradation of low-economic status, and increased in poverty due to flooding than Hazara division. It is concluded that floods have curtailed the agricultural livelihood on damaging crop production that has degraded locals' economic system by reducing household's income and savings, ending up in borrowing of money and leading to debt due to non-repayment. Households' vulnerability has increased due to increased poverty as being more exposed to natural disasters. It calls for government intervention to safeguard poor mountainous communities of Pakistan through financial help, seeds, livestock, and technical help in times of disaster.

A Stochastic Conflict Resolution Optimization Model for Flood Management in Detention Basins: Application of Fuzzy Graph Model

Floods are a natural disaster of significant concern because of their considerable damages to people’s livelihood. To this extent, there is a critical need to enhance flood management techniques by establishing proper infrastructure, such as detention basins. Although intelligent models may be adopted for flood management by detention basins, there is a literature gap on the optimum design of such structures while facing flood risks. The presented study filled this research gap by introducing a methodology to obtain the optimum design of detention basins using a stochastic conflict resolution optimization model considering inflow hydrographs uncertainties. This optimization model was developed by minimizing the conditional value-at-risk (CvaR) of flood overtopping, downstream flood damage, and deficit risk of water demand, as well as the deviation of flood overtopping and downstream damage based on non-linear interval number programming (NINP), for four different outlets types via a robust optimization tool, namely the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-III (NSGA-III). Conflict resolution was performed using the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) technique, enhanced by fuzzy preferences, to comply with the authorities’ priorities. Results indicated that the proposed framework could effectively design optimum detention basins consistent with the regional and hydrological standards.

Perceptions of Glacier Grafting: An Indigenous Technique of Water Conservation for Food Security in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Climate change and disruption in the water cycle patterns are leading to water scarcity. This unsustained water provision is drastically affecting the areas of limited water resources. This research has studied the impacts of climate change on water availability and the localized indigenous technique of glacier grafting for sustained water provision. This adaptation strategy helps the water-stressed locality to conserve water for food security. For this reason, 160 self-administered questionnaires were deployed at the household level, and the primary data were analyzed through STATA Software for ordinal logit regression to estimate the results for both restricted and unrestricted models, against the three dependent variables of glacier grafting, glacier melt water and food security. It is found that glacier grafting ensures sustained water provision for irrigation. It increases fertile land and agricultural production to achieve food security. The income of the households from non-/agricultural products leads to afford a better standard of living. The extension of the glacier grafting strategy to curb climatic effects can help global societies to address the food insecurity issue for sustained living.