Land use change simulation and spatial analysis of ecosystem service value in Shijiazhuang under multi-scenarios

Estimation of the Ecosystem Service Value of the Yellow River Delta-Laizhou Bay Coastal Zone Considering Regional Differences and Social Development

With economic and societal development, the ecological environment of the Yellow River Delta-Laizhou Bay coastal zone has been seriously damaged. Exploring the changes in land use and ecosystem service value (ESV) is essential to ecological construction of the region. The random forest classification method was used for land cover interpretation of the four periods of remote sensing images in the study area from 1990 to 2020. Newly calculated regional difference coefficients and social development coefficients were used to construct a dynamic ESV assessment model and to study its changes from overall and sea‒land gradient perspectives. The results showed that construction land, salt pans, aquaculture ponds, and inland water masses expanded rapidly, while cropland, tidal flats, and shallow waters shrank sharply over the past 30 years. The ESV in the study area has continued to decrease from 34.47 billion yuan in 1990 to 25.23 billion yuan in 2020, a total decrease of 9.23 billion yuan. This is mostly due to the encroachment of construction land, salt pans, and aquaculture ponds, and the flow of ecosystem services from high-value land cover types (tidal flats, herbaceous wetlands, and cropland) to medium- and low-value land cover types. Moreover, the land cover transfer and ESVs exhibited a decreasing trend from sea to land, with significant sea-land gradient differences. Land conversion is most common in the 0-15 km coastal zone, mainly from natural wetlands to artificial wetlands, where the ESV also decreases rapidly. Considering the regional differences and social development in this paper, the ESV of small-scale areas can be reasonably evaluated to explore the characteristics and causes of changes in land use and ESVs, which can provide an important reference for ecological protection and land use management in the region.

Measuring ecosystem services supply and demand in rural areas: cases from China's key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization

There is a considerable challenge to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of ending poverty and maintaining ecosystems' function in rural areas, largely due to that the rural people's livelihood relied heavily on fragile ecosystems. China is ambitious to solve this issue by enacting economic stimulus policies such as ecological protection compensation and payment for ecosystem services (ESs). However, these interventions are generally based on stockholders' willingness and lack of scientific basis. Here, we firstly combined InVEST model and social-economic data to evaluate the ecosystem services supply and demand (ESSD), by taking 25 key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization in Sichuan province as the study cases. The coupling coordination degree model was then employed to measure the coordination relationship of ESSD. Finally, the driving factors were analyzed based on correlation analysis and stepwise regression method. The results showed that all ESs, except carbon sequestration, were oversupplied with significant spatial heterogeneity. From 2000 to 2020, the supply of all ESs increased, in which the food production had the most notable increase ratio amounting to 48.20%, while the demand of water retention and air purification decreased substantially. Due to the inconsistency between cultivated land area and population changes, significant spatial heterogeneity existed in the coordination relationship of food production. The counties with the highest and the lowest annual average coordination index were Yanyuan (0.9950) and Rangtang (0.1208), respectively. The rural employees and the agricultural gross output value were the key positive factors influencing the quantity and coordination of ESSD, while ecological compensation and financial expenditure had no significant impact, further indicating that these policies were not linked to the performance of ecosystems' function. Finally, policy implications were raised. This study provides a scientific framework for enacting the interventions towards ecological sustainability and poverty ending from ESSD perspective.

Forecast of policy-driven land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in China: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Land use change is an important factor affecting the performance of ecosystem services (ESs). Therefore, understanding the impact of land use change on ESs is of great significance for promoting the coordination of regional human-land relationships. In this study, random forest and cellular automata were used to simulate and predict the characteristics of land use change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and diversified land use evolution patterns were formed in combination with China's strategic development needs. The effects of habitat suitability on ESs were analyzed by using a multiscenario land use change model. The results demonstrated that the driving factors selected in this article had a good induction effect on the law of land use evolution, and the simulated land use change had high credibility. Under the mode of ecological protection and cultivated land protection, the expansion of construction land was greatly affected and was not conducive to social and economic development. Under the natural evolution mode, farmland was greatly encroached upon, and food security was greatly threatened. The regional coordination model had relative advantages, and all kinds of land use needs were met to a certain extent. The water production function of ESs was strong, but the carbon storage function was weak. The relationship between the habitat suitability index and ES changes under land use change revealed that there were significant differences in ES changes caused by ecological quality changes in mountainous and plain areas. This study provides a reference for promoting social and economic development and ecosystem integrity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1473-1484. © 2023 SETAC.

Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of urban ecosystem service value based on CLUE-S and GM (1,1) compound model

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is a significant indicator related to regional ecological well-being. Evaluating ESV premised on continuous time series land benefit data can provide an accurate reference for regional ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. Taking Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province as an example, the study analyzed land use changes based on the land use data of the continuous time series from 2000 to 2020 and introduced a socio-economic adjustment factor and biomass factor adjustment factor to construct a dynamic assessment model of ecosystem service value. The spatiotemporal changes of the ecosystem service value in Shijiazhuang City were evaluated, and the dynamic prediction of the ecosystem service value was made using the CLUE-S model and the GM (1,1) model. (1) The changes in the overall ESV and spatial pattern in Shijiazhuang are strongly linked to the change in land use, and the contribution of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland to ecosystem service value exceeds 90%. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, the value of ecosystem services illustrated a dynamic change and gradually declined, with the total amount falling from 28.003 to 19.513 billion yuan. Among individual ecosystem services, the value of regulation services suffered the most serious loss. (3) CLUE-S and GM (1,1) perform well in the prediction of ESV. The prediction outcomes illustrate that the ecosystem service value of Shijiazhuang will continue to decline by 2025, and the ecosystem value will drop to 16.771 billion yuan. This research may offer a reference for the dynamic assessment of ESV of the continuous sequence and help to promote regional ecological protection and sustainable development.

Simulation of land use trends and assessment of scale effects on ecosystem service values in the Huaihe River basin, China

Land use demand change in the Huaihe River basin (HRB) and ecosystem service values (ESVs) in watersheds are important for the sustainable development and use of land resources. This paper takes the HRB as the research object, and using remote sensing images of land use as the data source adopts the comprehensive evaluation analysis method of ESVs based on equivalent factors and sensitivity analysis of the performance characteristics of ESV changes of different land use types. The PLUS model is used to predict spatiotemporal land use change characteristics to 2030 combining inertial development, ecological development, and cultivated land development. The spatial distribution and aggregation of ESVs at each scale were also explored by analyzing ESVs at municipal, county, and grid scales. Considering also hotspots, the contribution of land use conversion to ESVs was quantified. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased sharply to 28,344.6875 km², while construction land increased sharply to 26,914.563 km², and the change of other land types was small. (2) The ESVs in the HRB were 222,019 × 10¹² CNY in 2000, 235,015 × 10¹² CNY in 2005, 234,419 × 10¹² CNY in 2010, 229,885 × 10¹² CNY in 2015, and 224,759 × 10¹² CNY in 2020, with an overall fluctuation, first increasing and then decreasing. (3) The ESVs were 219,977 × 10¹² CNY, 218,098 × 10¹² CNY, 219,757 × 10¹² CNY, and 213,985 × 10¹² CNY under the four simulation scenarios of inertial development, ecological development, cultivated land development, and urban development, respectively. At different scales, the high-value areas decreased, and the low-value areas increased. (4) The hot and cold spots of ESV values were relatively clustered, with the former mainly clustered in the southeast region and the latter mainly clustered in the northwest region. The sensitivity of ecological value was lower than 1, while the ESV was inelastic to the ecological coefficient, and the results were plausible. The mutual conversion of cultivated land to water contributed the most to ESVs. Based on the multi-scenario simulation of land use in the HRB by the PLUS model, we identified the spatial distribution characteristics of ESVs at different scales, which can provide a scientific basis and multiple perspectives for the optimization of land use structure and socio-economic development decisions.

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) in urban surface water of Shijiazhuang, China: Occurrence, distribution, sources and ecological risks

It is extremely important to analyze the contaminative behaviors of Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) due to their serious threats to urban environments which are closely related to humans. Current study aimed to explore the distribution, source apportionment and ecological risk assessment of PFAAs in surface water from Shijiazhuang, China. The concentrations of ∑PFAAs ranged from 19.5 to 125.9 ng/L in the investigation area. Perfluorobutanesulfonic acid (PFBS) and perfluoropentanoic acid (PFPeA) were the predominant contaminants (mean value: 14.3 ng/L and 16.6 ng/L, respectively). The distribution of PFAAs according to geospatial analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) showed that higher levels of ∑PFAAs were detected in the southern surface water of Shijiazhuang and there was a stepwise decrease from the wet season to the dry season. Furthermore, based on source apportionment, the dominant potential sources were found to be wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents and industrial discharge. The risk quotients (RQs) revealed low ecological risks of all PFAAs for aquatic organisms in Shijiazhuang surface water. Collectively, this study provided basic data for regulatory strategies for controlling PFAA pollutions in urban surface water.

Blackland Conservation and Utilization, Carbon Storage and Ecological Risk in Green Space: A Case Study from Heilongjiang Province in China

Clarifying the relationship between carbon storage and ecological risks is critical to ensuring regional sustainable development. Land use changes caused by land use policy invariably result in substantial changes in carbon storage and ecological risks. The link between carbon storage and ecological risks in green space is still unknown, even though green space is an essential ecological function carrier. According to the Blackland Conservation Utilization (BCU) policy document and natural exploitation (NP) status, this study compared and projected the carbon storage and landscape ecological risk characteristics of green space in Heilongjiang Province (HLJP) for 2030. It also quantitatively assessed the interactions and synergistic changes of the two variables in terms of coupled coordination relationships, quantitative correlations, and spatial correlations. The results demonstrated the following: (1) the green space evolution of HJLP under the BCU scenario is significantly more drastic than under the NP scenario; (2) In 2020-2030, the NP scenario's evolution of green space results in the ecosystem losing 323.51 × 106 t of carbon storage, compared to the BCU scenario's loss of just 216.07 × 106 t. The BCU policy will increase the agglomeration of high-risk ranges in the northeast and southwest will but decrease the overall landscape ecological risk level of green space; (3) BCU policy will prevent the system's orderly development and benign coupling, but it will increase the interdependence between carbon storage and landscape ecological risks in green space; (4) Green space exchange and loss will result in the simultaneous rise or decrease in both variables. The magnitude of carbon storage increase owing to green space expansion tends to increase simultaneously with the magnitude of landscape ecological risk reduction. To a certain extent, the HLJP black land conservation and utilization policy can improve carbon storage and ensure ecological security, and the matching of dominant regions with the status of the landscape evolutionary process can support future carbon-neutral actions.

Potential effects of oasis expansion on ecosystem service value in a typical inland river basin of northwest China

To satisfy an increasing need for living space and food while preserving ecosystem services remains one of today's biggest challenges. Oases in arid areas have gradually become the main sources for new cultivated land, affecting the supply and transmission of ecosystem services. Yet, little assessment on predicting the effects of oasis expansion on ecosystem service value (ESV) has been available to guide policy makers and ecologists. Here we addressed the connections between oasis expansion and ESV in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in northwest China by linking the Logistic-CA-Markov model and the benefit transfer method. The results showed that the oasis was expected to expand by 419.02 km² from 2015 to 2029, with the area of farmland and construction land increasing by 18.87% and 39.05%, respectively. With oasis expansion, the total ESV was expected to increase by 104.25 million RMB from 2015 to 2029. However, oasis expansion encroaches on vegetation, resulting in decline of the values of climate regulation, waste treatment, and biodiversity protection. This study will provide a reference for decision-making in trade-offs involved in land management.

Intermediate human activities maximize dryland ecosystem services in the long-term land-use change: Evidence from the Sangong River watershed, northwest China

Human activities cause widespread changes in landscape composition, which can affect ecosystem services produced by these landscapes. It is usually believed that ecosystem services can be maximized only when we eliminate all human activities. However, this belief is not the case, at least in dryland ecosystems. Here, a gradient of human activity intensity was used to investigate changes in the value of ecosystem services over 30-years of land-use change between 1990 and 2020 in the arid Sangong River watershed of northwest China. Spatial analyses were performed to determine how the value of dryland ecosystem services changed with human activity intensity. Stepwise regressions and linear programming models were also performed to examine how to optimize the value of ecosystem services (i.e., regulating services, provisioning services, supporting services, and cultural services). We found that landscapes of the Sangong River watershed became increasingly fragmented and that human activities gradually intensified, but the value of ecosystem services fluctuated rather than linearly decreasing over the past 30 years. Specifically, a unimodal relationship was observed between human activities and ecosystem services. The peak value of ecosystem services was 5799 USD ha^-1 yr^-1 under intermediate human activity intensity (i.e., human footprint index ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 at a scale of one). Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population, and water consumption were the three most important driving factors of human activities and ecosystem services. Our results suggest that intermediate human activities may maximize dryland ecosystem services in long-term land-use change at the watershed scale, and highlight the importance of regulating economic development, population, and water consumption for the management of dryland ecosystem services.

A European-Chinese Exploration: Part 2—Urban Ecosystem Service Patterns, Processes, and Contributions to Environmental Equity under Different Scenarios

Urban expansion and ecological restoration policies can simultaneously affect land-cover changes and further affect ecosystem services (ES). However, it is unclear whether and to what extent the distribution and equity of urban ES are influenced by the stage of urban development and government policies. This study aims to assess the quantity and equity of ES under different scenarios in cites of China and Europe. Firstly, we used the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model to simulate future land cover under three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), a market-liberal scenario (MLS), and an ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then using ecosystem service model approaches and the landscape analysis, the dynamics of green infrastructure (GI) fraction and connectivity, carbon sequestration, and PM2.5 removal were further evaluated. The results show that: (1) over the past 20 years, Chinese cities have experienced dramatic changes in land cover and ES relative to European cities. (2) Two metropolises in China, Shanghai and Beijing have experienced an increase in the fraction and connectivity of GI and ES in the long-term built-up areas between 2010 and 2020. (3) EPS scenarios are not only effective in increasing the quantity of ES but also in improving the equity of ES distribution. The proposed framework as well as the results may provide important guidance for future urban planning and sustainable city development.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Rapid urbanization and human activities enhanced threats to the degradation of various ecosystem services in modern urban agglomerations. This study explored the response of ecosystem service values (ESVs) to land use changes and the trade-offs among various ESVs in urban agglomerations under different future development scenarios. The patch-general land use simulation (PLUS) model and ESV calculation method were used to simulate the ESVs of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration under the Business As Usual scenario (BAU), Ecological Conservation scenario (EC), and Economic Development scenario (ED) in 2030. Global and local Moran’s I were used to detect the spatial distribution pattern, and correlation analysis was used to measure trade-offs among ecosystem services. The results showed that: (1) The simulated result of land use in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration showed high accuracy compared to the actual observed result of the same period, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.912. From 2000 to 2030, land use changes were significant, with the rapid decrease in farmland and an increase in construction land. The area of woodland increased significantly under the EC scenario, and the area of construction land increased rapidly under the ED scenario. (2) The decline of total ESV was CNY 218 million from 2000 to 2020, and ESVs remained the downward trend in the BAU and ED scenarios compared to 2020, decreasing by CNY 156 million and CNY 4731 million, respectively. An increasing trend of ESV showed under the EC scenario, with a growth of CNY 849 million. (3) Significant spatial autocorrelation showed in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, as the Global Moran’s I were all positive and the p-values were zero. The ESV grids mainly showed “High-High” clusters in the mountainous areas and “Low-Low” clusters in plain areas. Except for food production, a majority of ecosystem services exhibited positive synergistic relationships. In future planning and development, policymakers should focus on the coordinated development of the urbanization process and ecological preservation to build an ecological safety pattern.

Integrating Land Use, Ecosystem Service, and Human Well-Being: A Systematic Review

Global change, population growth, and urbanization have been exerting a severe influence on the environment, including the social system and ecosystem. To find solutions based on nature, clarifying the complicated mechanisms and feedback among land use/land cover changes, ecosystem services, and human well-being, is increasingly crucial. However, the in-depth linkages among these three elements have not been clearly and systematically illustrated, present research paths have not been summarized well, and the future research trends on this topic have not been reasonably discussed. In this sense, the purpose of this paper is to provide an insight into how land use/land cover changes, ecosystem services, and human well-being are linked, as well as their relationships, interacting ways, applications in solving ecological and socioeconomic problems, and to reveal their future research trends. Here, we use a systematic literature review of the peer-reviewed literature to conclude the state of the art and the progress, emphasize the hotspot, and reveal the future trend of the nexus among the three aspects. Results show that (1) ecosystem services are generally altered by the changes in land use type, spatial pattern, and intensity; (2) the nexus among land use change, ecosystem services, and human well-being is usually used for supporting poverty alleviation, ecosystem health, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development; (3) future research on land use/land cover changes, ecosystem services, and human well-being should mainly focus on strengthening multiscale correlation, driving force analysis, the correlation among different group characteristics, land use types and ecosystem service preferences, and the impact of climate change on ecosystem services and human well-being. This study provides an enhanced understanding of the nexus among the three aspects and a reference for future studies to mitigate the relevant problems.

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China

Rapid socio-economic development has had a significant impact on land use/cover (LULC) changes, which bring great pressure to the ecological environment. LULC changes affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. It is of great significance to reveal the internal relationship between LULC changes and ecosystem service value (ESV) for the protection and restoration of ecological environments. In this study, based on the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological service values in the Manas River basin from 1980 to 2020 and considering ecological and economic benefits, we coupled the gray multi-objective optimization model (GMOP) and patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model (GMOP–PLUS model) to optimize the LULC structure under three scenarios (a natural development scenario, ND; ecological priority development scenario, (EPD); and balanced ecological and economic development scenario, EED) in 2030, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies in the relationships among the four services. We found that from 1980 to 2020, farmland and construction land expanded 2017.90 km² and 254.27 km², respectively, whereas the areas of grassland and unused land decreased by 1617.38 km² and 755.86 km², respectively. By 2030, the trend of LULC changes will be stable under the ND scenario, the area of ecological land will increase by 327.42 km² under the EPD scenario, and the area of construction land will increase most under the EED scenario, reaching 65.01 km². From 1980 to 2020, the ESV exhibited an upward trend in the basin. In 2030, the ESV will increase by 7.18%, 6.54%, and 6.04% under the EPD, EED, and ND scenarios, respectively. The clustering of the four services is obvious in the desert area and around the water system with “low–low synergy” and “high–high synergy”; the plain area and mountainous area are mainly “high–low trade-off” and “low–high trade-off” relationships. This paper provides a scientific reference for coordinating economic development and ecological protection in the basin. It also provides a new technical approach to address the planning of land resources in the basin.

Temporal and spatial analysis of the ecosystem service values in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of China based on land use change

The Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) has complex geological conditions and a fragile ecological environment. The construction of the Three Gorges Project triggered ecological and environmental issues and social disputes, which have attracted considerable attention in recent years. However, how the temporal and spatial characteristics of ecosystem service value (ESV) in the TGRA changed in each stage of the Three Gorges Project with the implementation of ecological restoration plans remains ambiguous. Based on four periods of land use data from 2000 to 2018, the changes in land use were investigated, and the ESVs were estimated. Then, the spatial distribution and dynamic changes in ecosystem services were analysed. The results showed that grassland and construction land were the land use types that had the greatest reductions and increases in area over time, respectively. The conversion of cropland to forestland, grassland and construction land represented the most important land type changes. In the past 18 years, because of an increase in forestland and water area, the ESVs increased by 2.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.46%. The conversion of cropland to forestland had the largest contribution rate to the increase in ESV. The ESV was higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest, and its changes had a significant positive autocorrelation in terms of the spatial distribution. The hot spots of ESV change were mainly distributed in the main stream of the Yangtze River and the reservoir area. This research provides a reference for land resource allocation and experience for the ecological environment protection and sustainable development of the Yangtze River Basin.

Ecosystem Service Values in the Dongting Lake Eco-Economic Zone and the Synergistic Impact of Its Driving Factors

Ecosystem service values (ESVs) are crucial to ecological conservation and restoration, urban and rural planning, and sustainable development of land. Therefore, it is important to study ESVs and their driving factors in the Dongting Lake Eco-Economic Zone (Dongting Lake). This paper quantifies the changes in ESVs in the Dongting Lake using land use data from 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2018. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model is used to study the effects of individual driving factors and the synergistic effects of these driving factors on ESVs. Our analysis suggests that: (1) From 2000 to 2018, the largest dynamic degree values in the Dongting Lake are in unused land types, followed by construction lands and wetlands. The ESVs of the Dongting Lake show an increasing trend, with those of forestlands being the highest, accounting for approximately 44.65% of the total value. Among the ESVs functions, water containment, waste treatment, soil formation and protection, biodiversity conservation and climate regulation contribute the most to ESVs, with a combined contribution of 76.64% to 76.99%; (2) The integrated intensity of anthropogenic disturbance shows a U-shaped spatial distribution, decreasing from U1 to U3. The driving factors in descending order of importance are the human impact index, total primary productivity (GPP), slope, elevation, population, temperature, gross domestic product, precipitation and PM2.5; (3) When the GPP is low (GPP < 900), the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) value of the high human impact index is greater than zero, indicating that an increase in GPP increases the ESVs in the Dongting Lake. This study can provide technical support and a theoretical basis for ecological environmental protection and ecosystem management in the Dongting Lake.

Spatial distribution, risk estimation and source apportionment of potentially toxic metal(loid)s in resuspended megacity street dust

The levels of potentially toxic metal(loid)s (PTMs) As, Cu, Co, Cr, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn in resuspended street dust (<100 μm particles) from a megacity in north China were determined. The sources of PTMs in resuspended street dust were analyzed using multivariate statistical analysis and positive matrix factorization methods that combined the spatial distributions of PTMs. Average levels of Zn, As, Pb, Cu, Co, and Hg exceeded those found in local soil samples, while those of Cr, Mn, and Ni were less than their background levels found in local soil. The overall contamination of PTMs in resuspended street dust was characterized as moderately contaminated and as uncontaminated to moderately contaminated. The ecological risk associated with Hg was very high, while the ecological risks associated with Cu, Co, Cr, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn were low. The overall ecological risk of PTMs was defined as high, driven by Hg. The non-carcinogenic risks of PTMs to inhabitants fell within safety limits, and the carcinogenic risks of As, Co, Cr, and Ni were below receivable values. A comprehensive analysis of PTMs sources revealed that Co, Zn, Cu, and Pb were principally associated with traffic emissions, which accounted for about 38.3% of these PTMs' contents. Mn, Ni, and Cr were mainly generated by natural source, which contributed to about 41.5% of these PTMs' concentrations. Hg and As were primarily derived from coal-related industrial source, which accounted for 77.9% of Hg and 62.9% of As in resuspended street dust. This study demonstrates that coal-related industrial discharges and traffic emissions are the main anthropogenic sources of PTMs contamination in resuspended street dust in the study area.

Land-Use Conflict Identification from the Perspective of Construction Space Expansion: An Evaluation Method Based on ‘Likelihood-Exposure-Consequence’

Land-use conflict (LUC) is a major problem of land management in the context of rapid urbanization. Conflict identification plays an important role in the development and protection of land space. Considering the possibility of, exposure to, and negative impacts of LUC, we explore the probability of land-use cover change (LUCC), policy constraints, and ecosystem service value (ESV) and build a conflict identification model based on the LEC concept of risk assessment. Taking Daye City as an example, we classify the conflict intensity and delimit the key conflict areas. At the same time, a composite classification system is constructed to analyze the spatial characteristics and internal mechanism of conflict. We find that the conflict between construction and ecological space is the main conflict in Daye City (P.R. China), which is widely distributed. However, the conflict between construction and agricultural space, which is mainly distributed near the center of Daye City, cannot be ignored.

Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China

Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of “high–high” synergy in the west and “low–low” synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed “high–low” and “low–high” trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.