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Chen C, Yang M, Wang Y, Jiang D, Du Y, Cao K, Zhang X, Wu X, Chen M, You Y, Zhou W, Qi J, Yan R, Zhu C, Yang S. Intensity and drivers of subtypes interference between seasonal influenza viruses in mainland China: A modeling study. iScience 2024; 27:109323. [PMID: 38487011 PMCID: PMC10937832 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2023] [Revised: 01/18/2024] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 03/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Subtype interference has a significant impact on the epidemiological patterns of seasonal influenza viruses (SIVs). We used attributable risk percent [the absolute value of the ratio of the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) of different subtypes minus one] to quantify interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, as well as B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. The interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 was higher in southern China 0.26 (IQR: 0.11-0.46) than in northern China 0.17 (IQR: 0.07-0.24). Similarly, interference intensity between B/Victoria and B/Yamagata was also higher in southern China 0.14 (IQR: 0.07-0.24) than in norther China 0.10 (IQR: 0.04-0.18). High relative humidity significantly increased subtype interference, with the highest relative risk reaching 20.59 (95% CI: 6.12-69.33) in southern China. Southern China exhibited higher levels of subtype interference, particularly between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2. Higher relative humidity has a more pronounced promoting effect on subtype interference.
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Affiliation(s)
- Can Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Mengya Yang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Yu Wang
- College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Daixi Jiang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Yuxia Du
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Kexin Cao
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Xiaobao Zhang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Xiaoyue Wu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Mengsha Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Yue You
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Wenkai Zhou
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Jiaxing Qi
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Rui Yan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Changtai Zhu
- Department of Transfusion Medicine, Shanghai Sixth People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200233, China
| | - Shigui Yang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China
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Si X, Wang L, Mengersen K, Hu W. Epidemiological features of seasonal influenza transmission among 11 climate zones in Chinese Mainland. Infect Dis Poverty 2024; 13:4. [PMID: 38200542 PMCID: PMC10777546 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-024-01173-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 01/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies provided some evidence of meteorological factors influence seasonal influenza transmission patterns varying across regions and latitudes. However, research on seasonal influenza activities based on climate zones are still in lack. This study aims to utilize the ecological-based Köppen Geiger climate zones classification system to compare the spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza in Chinese Mainland and assess the feasibility of developing an early warning system. METHODS Weekly influenza cases number from 2014 to 2019 at the county and city level were sourced from China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report Information System. Epidemic temporal indices, time series seasonality decomposition, spatial modelling theories including Moran's I and local indicators of spatial association were applied to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of influenza transmission. RESULTS All climate zones had peaks in Winter-Spring season. Arid, desert, cold (BWk) showed up the first peak. Only Tropical, savannah (Aw) and Temperate, dry winter with hot summer (Cwa) zones had unique summer peak. Temperate, no dry season and hot summer (Cfa) zone had highest average incidence rate (IR) at 1.047/100,000. The Global Moran's I showed that average IR had significant clustered trend (z = 53.69, P < 0.001), with local Moran's I identified high-high cluster in Cfa and Cwa. IR differed among three age groups between climate zones (0-14 years old: F = 26.80, P < 0.001; 15-64 years old: F = 25.04, P < 0.001; Above 65 years old: F = 5.27, P < 0.001). Age group 0-14 years had highest average IR in Cwa and Cfa (IR = 6.23 and 6.21) with unique dual peaks in winter and spring season showed by seasonality decomposition. CONCLUSIONS Seasonal influenza exhibited distinct spatial and temporal patterns in different climate zones. Seasonal influenza primarily emerged in BWk, subsequently in Cfa and Cwa. Cfa, Cwa and BSk pose high risk for seasonal influenza epidemics. The research finds will provide scientific evidence for developing seasonal influenza early warning system based on climate zones.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaohan Si
- Ecosystem Change and Population Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, 4059, Australia
| | - Liping Wang
- Information Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Kerrie Mengersen
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, 4000, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- Ecosystem Change and Population Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, 4059, Australia.
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Wang X, Cai J, Liu X, Wang B, Yan L, Liu R, Nie Y, Wang Y, Zhang X, Zhang X. Impact of PM 2.5 and ozone on incidence of influenza in Shijiazhuang, China: a time-series study. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:10426-10443. [PMID: 36076137 PMCID: PMC9458314 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22814-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 08/27/2022] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Most of the studies are focused on influenza and meteorological factors for influenza. There are still few studies focused on the relationship between pollution factors and influenza, and the results are not consistent. This study conducted distributed lag nonlinear model and attributable risk on the relationship between influenza and pollution factors, aiming to quantify the association and provide a basis for the prevention of influenza and the formulation of relevant policies. Environmental data in Shijiazhuang from 2014 to 2019, as well as the data on hospital-confirmed influenza, were collected. When the concentration of PM2.5 was the highest (621 μg/m3), the relative risk was the highest (RR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.10-5.17). For extremely high concentration PM2.5 (348 μg/m3), analysis of cumulative lag effect showed statistical significance from cumulative lag0-1 to lag0-6 day, and the minimum cumulative lag effect appeared in lag0-2 (RR: 0.760, 95% CI: 0.655-0.882). In terms of ozone, the RR value was 2.28(1.19,4.38), when O3 concentration was 310 μg/m3, and the RR was 1.65(1.26,2.15), when O3 concentration was 0 μg/m3. The RR of this lag effect increased with the increase of lag days, and reached the maximum at lag0-7 days, RR and 95% CI of slightly low concentration and extremely high concentration were 1.217(1.108,1.337) and 1.440(1.012,2.047), respectively. Stratified analysis showed that there was little difference in gender, but in different age groups, the cumulative lag effect of these two pollutants on influenza was significantly different. Our study found a non-linear relationship between two pollutants and influenza; slightly low concentrations were more associated with contaminant-related influenza. Health workers should encourage patients to get the influenza vaccine and wear masks when going out during flu seasons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xue Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China
| | - Jianning Cai
- The Department of Epidemic Treating and Preventing, Center for Disease Prevention and Control of Shijiazhuang City, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Xuehui Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China
| | - Binhao Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China
| | - Lina Yan
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China
| | - Ran Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China
| | - Yaxiong Nie
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China
| | - Yameng Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China
| | - Xinzhu Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China
| | - Xiaolin Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiazhuang, 050017, China.
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Nick LM, Nedel AS, Alonso MF, Marques JQ, de Freitas RAP. Relationship between meteorological variables and pneumonia in children in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre, Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:2301-2308. [PMID: 36053296 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02357-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2021] [Revised: 06/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
This work aims to analyze the relationship between meteorological conditions and the occurrence of hospital admissions for pneumonia in children under 5 years of age in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre, Brazil, from 1998 to 2017. To this end, data from hospital admissions obtained from the Unified Health System database (DATASUS) were used and classified into two groups: acute respiratory infections (ARI) and asthma, according to the international classification of diseases, tenth edition (ICD-10). Data regarding meteorological variables were also used: temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed, at 12Z and 18Z, as well as the Thermal Comfort Index (TCI), Effective Temperature as a function of the wind (ETw) and Windchill (W). From the data obtained, a descriptive analysis of the diseases and a statistical analysis with the analysis of correlation and main components were performed. Results showed that pneumonia (catalogued in the ICD-10 as J12 to J18) was the main cause of hospitalizations in children. The annual, monthly and daily hospitalization frequency distributions showed higher rates of admissions occurring in the months of May to September. The peaks of admissions and high admissions (HA) occurred mainly in the winter months (June, July and August), and in 1998. Meanwhile, the correlation and principal component analysis showed an increase in hospital admissions due to pneumonia related to a decrease in temperature and ETw and W indices (negative anomalies) and an increase in atmospheric pressure and relative humidity (positive anomalies).
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Affiliation(s)
- Leticia Moreira Nick
- Postgraduate in Meteorology, Faculty of Meteorology, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil
| | - Anderson Spohr Nedel
- Faculty of Agronomy, Federal University of the Southern Border, Cerro Largo, Brazil.
- Postgraduate Program in Meteorology, Faculty of Meteorology, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil.
| | - Marcelo Felix Alonso
- Faculty of Agronomy, Federal University of the Southern Border, Cerro Largo, Brazil
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Chen S, Liu C, Lin G, Hänninen O, Dong H, Xiong K. The role of absolute humidity in respiratory mortality in Guangzhou, a hot and wet city of South China. Environ Health Prev Med 2021; 26:109. [PMID: 34789160 PMCID: PMC8597241 DOI: 10.1186/s12199-021-01030-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2021] [Accepted: 10/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background For the reason that many studies have been inconclusive on the effect of humidity on respiratory disease, we examined the association between absolute humidity and respiratory disease mortality and quantified the mortality burden due to non-optimal absolute humidity in Guangzhou, China. Methods Daily respiratory disease mortality including total 42,440 deaths from 1 February 2013 to 31 December 2018 and meteorological data of the same period in Guangzhou City were collected. The distributed lag non-linear model was used to determine the optimal absolute humidity of death and discuss their non-linear lagged effects. Attributable fraction and population attributable mortality were calculated based on the optimal absolute humidity, defined as the minimum mortality absolute humidity. Results The association between absolute humidity and total respiratory disease mortality showed an M-shaped non-linear curve. In total, 21.57% (95% CI 14.20 ~ 27.75%) of respiratory disease mortality (9154 deaths) was attributable to non-optimum absolute humidity. The attributable fractions due to high absolute humidity were 13.49% (95% CI 9.56 ~ 16.98%), while mortality burden of low absolute humidity were 8.08% (95% CI 0.89 ~ 13.93%), respectively. Extreme dry and moist absolute humidity accounted for total respiratory disease mortality fraction of 0.87% (95% CI − 0.09 ~ 1.58%) and 0.91% (95% CI 0.25 ~ 1.39%), respectively. There was no significant gender and age difference in the burden of attributable risk due to absolute humidity. Conclusions Our study showed that both high and low absolute humidity are responsible for considerable respiratory disease mortality burden, the component attributed to the high absolute humidity effect is greater. Our results may have important implications for the development of public health measures to reduce respiratory disease mortality. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12199-021-01030-3.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shutian Chen
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Chao Liu
- School of Journalism & Communication, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Guozhen Lin
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 510440, China
| | - Otto Hänninen
- Department Public Health Solutions, National Institute for Health and Welfare, 00300, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Hang Dong
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 510440, China
| | - Kairong Xiong
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
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